Lead author @gspataf95.bsky.social outlines the key features of Trump’s second administration that are shaking the foundations of transatlantic relations: 🔹 Unpredictability 🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty 🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe

🇺🇸 Following the US troop drawdown in Romania, @gspataf95.bsky.social tells @apnews.com the move could undermine NATO's deterrent effect. 💬 "Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further" to check how the alliance responds to more drone incidents or acts of sabotage. apnews.com/article/nato...

Glad to be quoted in the @apnews.com article on 700 US troops being rotated out of Romania: “we do know the direction of travel: fewer US troops and assets"... “Russia could be tempted to test NATO even further, checking how the alliance responds” apnews.com/article/nato...

🙄 “But Sardinia’s regional council—led by the leftwing populist Five Star Movement — has refused to approve it and demanded more information, citing criticism from local environmentalists and anti-war activists” on.ft.com/4oe1VQx Italian pacifists stymie Europe’s plan to boost ammunition production

After the events of the weekend (cfr @financialtimes.com article), it is clearer that we live in an age of "low trust" in transatlantic relations. Read our @euiss.bsky.social report on navigating this new era👇

The Chaillot Paper is edited by @gspataf95.bsky.social , @sbeverts.bsky.social and Alice Ekman and includes chapters covering many policy fields and regions across the globe: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗮 “𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁” 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽? Today we publish our latest @euiss.bsky.social Chaillot Paper on transatlantic relations - a collective work edited by me, @sbeverts.bsky.social & Alice Ekman. 1/🧵

🛡️ From securing supply chains and defence ties to fighting transnational organised crime, the EU, Latin America & the Caribbean face common security challenges. 🤝 Ahead of the 2025 #EUCELAC Summit, we held an event to level up the security dimension in cross-regional relations.

My regular update on #Ukraine and global conflict is now available. This week: U.S. deep strike target data for Ukraine, more drones over Europe, the Pacific and my Big Five recommended war reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/deep-strik...

Fighter jets are too costly against cheap #drones and Europe can’t rely on the US, which is also new to this game. @gspataf95.bsky.social in the Washington Post on the EU's planned "drone wall". www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

A little present this morning: being quoted on the @washingtonpost.com article on Europe's drone wall plan: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

Glad for the conversation I had with @benhallnews.bsky.social @financialtimes.com in preparation for their article on European airspace vulnerabilities and Russia's growing boldness. Quote and full text here: www.ft.com/content/f945...

European countries bordering Russia should prepare for the possibility that Washington could draw down its troop numbers in the area by building up their own military capacity, the president of Estonia told us.

Previewing the latest @euiss.bsky.social research at #EUISS2025 Annual Conference

#EUISS2025 Annual Conference under way, with HRVP @kajakallas.bsky.social & @sbeverts.bsky.social

This week has seen a whirlwind of diplomatic summits, full of drama and controversy but not much clarity. If you wonder what it all means, here are four short takes by @euiss.bsky.social analysts: #EUdiplomacy #Ukraine #Trump

“In general, the Europeans talk much more often to Trump than during the first 100 days, which is good. They have influence. But it’s limited,” says @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Yesterday, I was interviewed by @france24.com for "Around the World" on the phone call between the US, Ukraine, and European allies. We touched upon EU attempts to influence Trump, the risks of the meeting, Putin's intentions, and the real obstacles to a ceasefire.

A fundamental question this article raises is whether Trump & Co. care about NATO allies who use "creative accounting" or whether they are going to look the other way and declare victory. www.newsweek.com/how-nato-usi...

💡 The EU can address both its security & competitiveness crises with a new tool: increased defence budgets. Europe has the opportunity to spark a dual-use tech boom that could boost its deterrence and industrial growth, argue @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/pu...

Maybe that's the point...pressure on spending 5% quickly will lead to pressure to buy off the shelf american...

While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy. My rant in the @financialtimes.com

Absolutely yes. And the keyword here is "strategic": it's not smart to give yourself the means without the ends, and Europeans are clearly failing in defining the ends.

Glad to be back on @anadoluajansicom.bsky.social to discuss the Turkish acquisition of Eurofighter Typhoons: is it a step forward in defence integration w. Europe? Pragmatism wins, but structural issues remain. @euiss.bsky.social www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/op...

Short reading x the summer break: Europe should be ready for the US NDS & force posture review - coming up in late summer/fall. We should hope for the best but prepare for the worst. My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:

NEW: “They won’t shut the fuck up about it,” Trump privately vented — referring to conservative influencers and media types lashing out over the Epstein memo — according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.

1. This is a very rich podcast discussion between Vipin Narang, Pranay Vaddi & Austin Long (who did nuclear policy on the joint staff until recently). Covers UK-France nuclear co-op but most interesting bits are on the US policy of 'damage limitation' strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/vipin-and-...

Rutte really deserves an award for his handling of Trump. Yes, this may not stick and Trump is at the same time seeking to weaken Europe with tariffs. But on security this is the best day for Europe during Trump's time in the White House.

Lastly, if Bridge Colby is going to halt Patriot deliveries because of low US stockpiles - a real concern. The Pentagon should then tell Europeans to ramp up production of European systems. They aren't conveying that. Instead, State is sticking to its same old buy-American talking points.

this is overall a suboptimal outcome for European defense. In a high-end attritional war, Europe would want its own production capacity even if its system wasn't quite as good. But it won't get better w/o orders. More orders, more capital, more innovation. As SAMP-T is used it w/d get better.

Glad to be on @france24.com "The Debate" last night with @francoisf24.bsky.social & other excellent guests to discuss "Deterrence made in Europe", the 🇬🇧-🇫🇷 summit, the Ukraine Recovery Conference, and the latest developments in the White House regarding Ukraine. Link below:

🌐 The US is not the only force driving the current aid crisis. European governments and institutions are cutting development assistance, too. Who will fill the void? Find out more in our latest Munich Security Analysis: securityconference.org/en/publicati...

The nuclear discussion (and strategy) in Europe is changing quite a bit right now. www.ft.com/content/eb83...

Europe is ramping up defence spending but this isn’t just about security. It’s a chance to spark a dual-use tech boom that could power Europe’s competitiveness. A thread🧵⤵️

Geopolitical Europe Summer Reading List is out! geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/geopolitic...

Great to speak at the @consilium.europa.eu Library with Lizza 😊

Ready to support the strategic direction of the Institute? We are looking for our new Head of people & administration. ⏰ Apply by 28 August, 12:00 CEST 🔗 ow.ly/IHG550WlAyM #EUjobs

More defence spending is necessary - but it could be done right or wrong. One good way is for Europe to invest on dual-use technologies, essential for contemporary warfare but also key to enhance our competitiveness. @joristeer.bsky.social www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

This is just punitive. It also sends a signal of how little this Pentagon cares about European security. Any European leader taking solace from the NATO summit needs to look at this and ask what cuts are they planning for Europe? They ain’t gonna be superficial

“analysis by senior military officers found that the [now suspended Ukraine] aid package would not jeopardize the American military’s own ammunition supplies, according to three U.S. officials.” www.nbcnews.com/news/militar...

How can Europe use the additional money for defence in a way that also makes its industries for the 4th industrial revolution? @joristeer.bsky.social and I wrote a brief for @euiss.bsky.social on tackling the security & competitiveness crisis, & driving a dual-use tech boom. 👇

27% of French see the US now as an adversary. (16% in Germany, 18% in the UK) Most still think the US is a necessary partner - but no longer an ally Poll instituteforglobalaffairs.org/wp-content/u...

🛡️ How Europe can live with NATO’s ill-conceived defence spending target 💭 With many EU member states already fiscally constrained, could joint financing make the new 5% target realisable? 🖊️ Roel Beetsma, Marco Buti and @francesconicoli.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/kihr3Dx

Stark warning: "But the tsunami of new money to be dispensed at breakneck speed risks simply overwhelming managerial capacities throughout the defence enterprise—and encouraging a reversion to old practices if a desperate effort to cope": ecfr.eu/article/too-...

#Finnland begrüßt die Pläne von sechs #NATO-Partnern (🇸🇪, 🇬🇧 ,🇫🇷 ,🇳🇴,🇩🇰,🇮🇸) den Forward Land Forces (FLF) beitreten zu wollen, die im Norden des Landes stationiert werden sollen. Im Krisenfall könnten dann Truppen & Material in Brigade-Größe dorthin verlegt werden. www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Great view by @maxbergmann.bsky.social : the (unintended?) consequences of promising 5% of GDP for defence. Keeping Trump in was the only goal of the summit. The hard part begins now.

UK government announces that it will in fact buy F-35A and join NATO nuclear sharing. The UK will purchase 12 F-35As and join NATO’s nuclear mission. gov.uk/government/new… Less than two weeks ago the SDR external reviewers had implied they were not keen on that choice (below).

NATO's incessant focus on abstract spending targets instead of European militaries bigger structural challenges is a form of brain death.