Glad for the conversation I had with @benhallnews.bsky.social @financialtimes.com in preparation for their article on European airspace vulnerabilities and Russia's growing boldness. Quote and full text here: www.ft.com/content/f945...

European countries bordering Russia should prepare for the possibility that Washington could draw down its troop numbers in the area by building up their own military capacity, the president of Estonia told us.

Previewing the latest @euiss.bsky.social research at #EUISS2025 Annual Conference

#EUISS2025 Annual Conference under way, with HRVP @kajakallas.bsky.social & @sbeverts.bsky.social

This week has seen a whirlwind of diplomatic summits, full of drama and controversy but not much clarity. If you wonder what it all means, here are four short takes by @euiss.bsky.social analysts: #EUdiplomacy #Ukraine #Trump

“In general, the Europeans talk much more often to Trump than during the first 100 days, which is good. They have influence. But it’s limited,” says @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

Yesterday, I was interviewed by @france24.com for "Around the World" on the phone call between the US, Ukraine, and European allies. We touched upon EU attempts to influence Trump, the risks of the meeting, Putin's intentions, and the real obstacles to a ceasefire.

A fundamental question this article raises is whether Trump & Co. care about NATO allies who use "creative accounting" or whether they are going to look the other way and declare victory. www.newsweek.com/how-nato-usi...

💡 The EU can address both its security & competitiveness crises with a new tool: increased defence budgets. Europe has the opportunity to spark a dual-use tech boom that could boost its deterrence and industrial growth, argue @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.iss.europa.eu/pu...

Maybe that's the point...pressure on spending 5% quickly will lead to pressure to buy off the shelf american...

While no one disputes that Europe needs to do more for its defence, the focus on defence spending percentage of GDP won’t get us there. Indeed, making Europeans commit to an arbitrary spending target is the best way to keep Europe from reaching strategic autonomy. My rant in the @financialtimes.com

Absolutely yes. And the keyword here is "strategic": it's not smart to give yourself the means without the ends, and Europeans are clearly failing in defining the ends.

Glad to be back on @anadoluajansicom.bsky.social to discuss the Turkish acquisition of Eurofighter Typhoons: is it a step forward in defence integration w. Europe? Pragmatism wins, but structural issues remain. @euiss.bsky.social www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/op...

Short reading x the summer break: Europe should be ready for the US NDS & force posture review - coming up in late summer/fall. We should hope for the best but prepare for the worst. My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:

NEW: “They won’t shut the fuck up about it,” Trump privately vented — referring to conservative influencers and media types lashing out over the Epstein memo — according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter.

1. This is a very rich podcast discussion between Vipin Narang, Pranay Vaddi & Austin Long (who did nuclear policy on the joint staff until recently). Covers UK-France nuclear co-op but most interesting bits are on the US policy of 'damage limitation' strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/vipin-and-...

Rutte really deserves an award for his handling of Trump. Yes, this may not stick and Trump is at the same time seeking to weaken Europe with tariffs. But on security this is the best day for Europe during Trump's time in the White House.

Lastly, if Bridge Colby is going to halt Patriot deliveries because of low US stockpiles - a real concern. The Pentagon should then tell Europeans to ramp up production of European systems. They aren't conveying that. Instead, State is sticking to its same old buy-American talking points.

this is overall a suboptimal outcome for European defense. In a high-end attritional war, Europe would want its own production capacity even if its system wasn't quite as good. But it won't get better w/o orders. More orders, more capital, more innovation. As SAMP-T is used it w/d get better.

Glad to be on @france24.com "The Debate" last night with @francoisf24.bsky.social & other excellent guests to discuss "Deterrence made in Europe", the 🇬🇧-🇫🇷 summit, the Ukraine Recovery Conference, and the latest developments in the White House regarding Ukraine. Link below:

🌐 The US is not the only force driving the current aid crisis. European governments and institutions are cutting development assistance, too. Who will fill the void? Find out more in our latest Munich Security Analysis: securityconference.org/en/publicati...

The nuclear discussion (and strategy) in Europe is changing quite a bit right now. www.ft.com/content/eb83...

Europe is ramping up defence spending but this isn’t just about security. It’s a chance to spark a dual-use tech boom that could power Europe’s competitiveness. A thread🧵⤵️

Geopolitical Europe Summer Reading List is out! geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/geopolitic...

Great to speak at the @consilium.europa.eu Library with Lizza 😊

Ready to support the strategic direction of the Institute? We are looking for our new Head of people & administration. ⏰ Apply by 28 August, 12:00 CEST 🔗 ow.ly/IHG550WlAyM #EUjobs

More defence spending is necessary - but it could be done right or wrong. One good way is for Europe to invest on dual-use technologies, essential for contemporary warfare but also key to enhance our competitiveness. @joristeer.bsky.social www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

This is just punitive. It also sends a signal of how little this Pentagon cares about European security. Any European leader taking solace from the NATO summit needs to look at this and ask what cuts are they planning for Europe? They ain’t gonna be superficial

“analysis by senior military officers found that the [now suspended Ukraine] aid package would not jeopardize the American military’s own ammunition supplies, according to three U.S. officials.” www.nbcnews.com/news/militar...

How can Europe use the additional money for defence in a way that also makes its industries for the 4th industrial revolution? @joristeer.bsky.social and I wrote a brief for @euiss.bsky.social on tackling the security & competitiveness crisis, & driving a dual-use tech boom. 👇

27% of French see the US now as an adversary. (16% in Germany, 18% in the UK) Most still think the US is a necessary partner - but no longer an ally Poll instituteforglobalaffairs.org/wp-content/u...

🛡️ How Europe can live with NATO’s ill-conceived defence spending target 💭 With many EU member states already fiscally constrained, could joint financing make the new 5% target realisable? 🖊️ Roel Beetsma, Marco Buti and @francesconicoli.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/kihr3Dx

Stark warning: "But the tsunami of new money to be dispensed at breakneck speed risks simply overwhelming managerial capacities throughout the defence enterprise—and encouraging a reversion to old practices if a desperate effort to cope": ecfr.eu/article/too-...

#Finnland begrüßt die Pläne von sechs #NATO-Partnern (🇸🇪, 🇬🇧 ,🇫🇷 ,🇳🇴,🇩🇰,🇮🇸) den Forward Land Forces (FLF) beitreten zu wollen, die im Norden des Landes stationiert werden sollen. Im Krisenfall könnten dann Truppen & Material in Brigade-Größe dorthin verlegt werden. www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Great view by @maxbergmann.bsky.social : the (unintended?) consequences of promising 5% of GDP for defence. Keeping Trump in was the only goal of the summit. The hard part begins now.

UK government announces that it will in fact buy F-35A and join NATO nuclear sharing. The UK will purchase 12 F-35As and join NATO’s nuclear mission. gov.uk/government/new… Less than two weeks ago the SDR external reviewers had implied they were not keen on that choice (below).

NATO's incessant focus on abstract spending targets instead of European militaries bigger structural challenges is a form of brain death.

We’re spending more not because Trump tells us to. But because the US is no longer reliable. Because the transatlantic relationship got screwed.

First reason has nothing to do with Trump: Russia invaded Ukraine! There is a huge war on our continent! (Look at spending since 2014 btw). Second reason is about Trump but it’s not that his asking somehow is more effective than Obama’s! It’s that bc of Trump Europeans don’t believe in US anymore.

NATO depends heavily on 🇺🇸 troops, firepower & critical strategic enablers. But as America’s commitment to Europe comes into question, the Alliance must adapt, warns @gspataf95.bsky.social. 🔗 ow.ly/3kxy50Wfkfp #NATOsummit

There are many things that could persuade the US abandon NATO... Europeans taking up a leadership role wouldn't be one of them.

#NATOsummit: European allies fear that planning for a reduced US role in NATO could hasten US disengagement. But this self-fulfilling prophecy blocks urgent reforms that Washington may actually welcome as fairer burden-sharing, warns @gspataf95.bsky.social. ow.ly/eYCZ50WeAWr

Nice Long Read by @financialtimes.com on the NATO summit by @benhallnews.bsky.social & colleagues, with a quote from my latest @euiss.bsky.social piece: on.ft.com/43TUFl5

Top Gun 2, but make it boring. "Why don't we just drop the really really big bunker-buster bomb from a B2 bomber, Maverick, then we all go home and call it a day?"

How it started. How it’s going.

Ted Cruz vs. Tucker Carlson: Conservatives clash over Iran policy

Wow - looks like the real VDL is back Mega-hawkish speech on China at G7 - accuses it of intentionally making the world reliant on rare earths "We are seeing a new China shock - as China's economy slows down, Beijing floods global markets with subsidised overcapacity its own market cannot absorb"

The US remains silent after Russians bomb the offices of US defense giant #Boeing in Kyiv. kyivinsider.com/us-silent-af...