(1/10) Europe faces its most dangerous security environment in decades. Intelligence assessments suggest Russia may attack an EU Member State in the coming years. As US engagement in Europe becomes less certain, how can Europe strengthen deterrence? 🧵

As E5 leaders met ahead of the NATO Summit, @gspataf95.bsky.social argues Europe must stop waiting for Washington to define burden-sharing and instead take the lead in shaping the transition beyond US-led deterrence. shorturl.at/b19GB

We start the week with a banger: the new @euiss.bsky.social paper on "Defending Europe, Deterring Russia: Resources, Readiness and Resolve" is out. 🧵

Nice to be featured in @nytimes.com over US asset reductions from Europe

The Caribbean may seem distant, but political shifts in the region will affect Europe as the US reasserts its dominance in the Americas. EU security projects in the region are one of the tools that can help safeguard European interests, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social. shorturl.at/pOENG

Yesterday, the US indicted Raul Castro. Will a repeat of the Maduro playbook take place? In this @euiss.bsky.social brief I explain the possible evolution, the way actors in the region are adapting, and the stakes & options for the EU. Hint: it's directly linked to European security @ec.europa.eu

My latest brief on the major changes taking place in the Caribbean - why they matter to Europe, and where the EU can take meaningful action: @euiss.bsky.social

China’s critical raw material export squeeze has proven a powerful geo-economic weapon. What began as retaliation against US tariffs & tech restrictions is now a broader strategy to advance Beijing’s core interests. We propose an emergency plan ⤵️ 🔗 www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Honored to contribute to the European Security Strategy. Together with @eudiplomacy.bsky.social & DG IDEA, we gathered experts yesterday to develop concrete recommendations for the EU to build the readiness, resilience & partnerships needed for a new security era.

My take for @euiss.bsky.social on the US posture changes announced over the weekend:

How the war in Iran impacts #EUdefence @gspataf95.bsky.social & @lscazzieri.bsky.social break down the risks, & what the EU should do now ⤵️

The war in Iran creates political, technical & economic pressures on Europe's rearmament, deepening a window of vulnerability that could encourage further Russian aggression, warns @lscazzieri.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social. ➡️ ow.ly/IQqN50YGtpu

@lscazzieri.bsky.social and I wrote a short commentary for @euiss.bsky.social assessing the damage of the US-Iran war for Europe - and suggesting a way to enhance the resilience of the continent's defence build-up. Read below:

Pentagon & NATO say arms to Ukraine via PURL will keep flowing. But a prolonged Middle East war could strain US capacity to fulfill orders - posing serious risks for Europe & Ukraine, warns @gspataf95.bsky.social in Libertatea. Read the interview: www.libertatea.ro/stiri/giusep...

Great to see my @euiss.bsky.social piece on "Foreign Policy First Presidency" in the @eucouncilpress.bsky.social Think Tank Review, among many other great reads :)

Trump continues to speak of NATO as a separate entity rather than an alliance the US belongs to - "we helped NATO with Ukraine - now they need to help us." @gspataf95.bsky.social speaks to @npr.org about Trump's call for Europeans to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. www.npr.org/2026/03/17/n...

@gspataf95.bsky.social - good statement on US treating NATO as an external toolbox rather than an Alliance in which it is a member on @npr.org's Morning Edition and Brussels correspondent Teri Schultz. www.npr.org/2026/03/17/n...

A pleasure to host the #COTRA Working Party at @euiss.bsky.social HQ in Paris on Friday.

My latest thoughts on #EU-#NATO relations for @euiss.bsky.social :

“The war with Iran is little more than the joint targeting process unleashed. The Frankenstein’s monster that is the operational level of war, unsatiated after eating strategy, is now feasting on policy”. @bafriedman.bsky.social

#China is often seen as an unstoppable economic power. But Beijing is also increasingly fragile. New Chaillot Paper by @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social & @ruehlig.bsky.social argues the EU has more leverage than it thinks - and should use it strategically ➡️ ow.ly/1p0650Yq7EC

⚙️ In 2025, Europe remained a major buyer of US weapons, but purchases fell significantly from 2024, suggesting early signs of reduced reliance. Individual EU countries, however, still top the rankings. Read more in @gspataf95.bsky.social's scrollytelling analysis: iss.europa.eu/publications...

#MSC was better than last year for Europe, but many now openly say that trust in🇺🇸 is down. We have entered the age of low trust - which doesn't mean open tensions all the time, but a different benchmark

🧵/ Our February European Political Monthly survey once again finds attitudes to the USA hitting new lows Net favourability of the USA in... 🇩🇪 -56 (down 5 from Jan) 🇫🇷 -52 (down 18) 🇮🇹 -43 (down 5) 🇪🇸 -41 (down 4) 🇬🇧 -41 (down 7) 🇵🇱 -5 (new) yougov.co.uk/internationa...

I'm not going to the @munsecconf.bsky.social - but the 2026 #MSCreport is featuring @euiss.bsky.social CP "Low Trust: Navigating Transatlantic Relations under Trump 2.0" as part of its recommended reading list: securityconference.org/assets/02_Do...

Tariffs have been one of Trump's main instruments to reshape the global trade order. While the administration argues that tariffs are paid by foreign companies, 96% of the burden was absorbed by US citizens. More on the "Foreign Policy-First" President, by @gspataf95.bsky.social: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf

Trump claims to have ended 8 wars in 2025. Many of these US-brokered peace deals include economic components, such as access to minerals, making them tools to forge business ties & secure new resources. More on the "Foreign Policy-First" President: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf

Nearly 500 US military strikes in 12 months - more than under Biden in four years. From 'America First' to 'Foreign Policy-First'? 📊 Our interactive analysis of US foreign policy under Trump, by @gspataf95.bsky.social: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆-𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 It was supposed to be America First — but #Trump 2.0 has been defined above all by foreign policy. My latest @euiss.bsky.social data analysis: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

💡 @gspataf95.bsky.social opens the panel discussion with policy-makers and practitioners connecting the survey results to the EU's strategic priorities. 🧵

Read below the results of our latest collaboration w. @eui-eu.bsky.social @eui-schuman.bsky.social @vanghel.bsky.social @erik-jones.bsky.social

#Greenland: a stronger European presence in the region is necessary, not only to deter Russian or Chinese influence but also to reinforce the principle that allied territories will be defended against all threats. Giuseppe Spatafora#Greenland:for Anadolu ⤵️

Venezuela’s crisis won’t stay within its borders. Pressure is already felt in Colombia & Cuba, while US strikes on coca crops, fentanyl labs or criminal hubs across the region are now plausible, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social. 🔗 ow.ly/f4ws50XSWXI

Joint statement by 4 former officials in Democratic and Republican Administrations—including four NATO Ambassadors, 3 Assistant Secretaries of State for Europe, and 3 NSC Senior Directors. Excellent opening in particular.

In #Greenland all US goals can be attained through cooperation with Denmark & Europe. This must be visible in deeds, not just words, explains @gspataf95.bsky.social in Defense News. 🔗 www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

A lot has been said about the next 🇺🇸 foreign policy moves after the seizing of Maduro. But what could be the consequences of Maduro's ousting for the Caribbean region? And why does this directly affect Europe? My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary:

Les Européens doivent gérer une hiérarchie de menaces en parant au plus pressé : d’abord la Russie, puis la Chine et, enfin, commencer à appréhender la transition des États-Unis du statut d’allié à celui d’adversaire, voire de menace, explique @gspataf95.bsky.social. www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...

The Americas have become the laboratory of Trump 2.0’s foreign policy: tariffs, aid cuts, military deployments & claims on Greenland. Europe should respond by becoming an active player in the region and challenge the Monroe Doctrine, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social 🔗 ow.ly/7W7550XbpcO

Linking Africa & South America, the South Atlantic is fast becoming a pivotal arena where security risks, economic opportunities & global competition converge. The EU must step up strategically to avoid losing influence, argue Rossella Marangio & @gspataf95.bsky.social. 🔗 ow.ly/aj3z50XHpc3

As the gap between national sovereignty and regional collaboration widens, @gspataf95.bsky.social flags the high risk of US withdrawal from Europe. More in #F24Debate ➡️ f24.my/6GOp

"European leaders must adjust to a new reality in which US interests don’t necessarily match theirs". @gspataf95.bsky.social speaks to the Washington Post as NATO allies worry Washington is charting its own course on the peace talks. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

We are in the age of low trust

Europe needs a new playbook for dealing with Trump in 2026, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social. That means adopting a transactional approach: speaking to Trump in terms he responds to & use the EU-US trade deal as leverage. www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Europe's influence over the US is dwindling. The approach used in 2025 has not fundamentally changed the basic direction of US policy. It's time for Europeans to adopt a different paradigm. My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary: "You can’t turn Trump into Biden"

Europe's influence over the US is dwindling. The approach used in 2025 has not fundamentally changed the basic direction of US policy. It's time for Europeans to adopt a different paradigm. My latest @euiss.bsky.social commentary: "You can’t turn Trump into Biden" www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Warships, bombers, a carrier strike group: the US is mounting a massive military build-up in the Caribbean, officially for counter-narcotics. Could more be at play? @gspataf95.bsky.social analyses the situation and the implications for Europe. 🔗 ow.ly/Yj5V50XsX2r

The US is carrying out a major military build-up in the Caribbean, officially for counter-narcotics. But the scale is fuelling speculation about possible regime change in Venezuela. What does this mean for Europe? @gspataf95.bsky.social explores the stakes: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Just back from DC, where among other things I could learn more about the US operations in the Caribbean. I summarise my understanding of the situation in the newest @euiss.bsky.social commentary "Warm waters" www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Lead author @gspataf95.bsky.social outlines the key features of Trump’s second administration that are shaking the foundations of transatlantic relations: 🔹 Unpredictability 🔹 A policy process driven by loyalty 🔹 Elements of hostility towards Europe