1/5 Reuters: "The EU's trade surplus kept shrinking, data showed on Friday, as tariffs weighed on exports to the U.S. and rising Chinese imports crowded out domestic production, highlighting existential threats to the bloc's economic model." www.reuters.com/world/china/...

1/4 SCMP: "Major provinces are budgeting for 2 to 3 per cent growth this year in general public operating revenue, broadly in line with last year but below broader economic growth targets, Fitch Ratings said in a research note." sc.mp/n5seb?utm_so...

1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on attempts by Chinese regulators to get their arms around "the opaque market for corporate IOUs that has allowed big-name companies to defer payments to suppliers on a massive scale." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-02-13/i...

1/5 According to Caixin, China’s aggregate financing grew slightly faster than expected in January, rising by RMB 7.22 trillion. This was 2.4% more than in January 2025 and 10.4% more than in January 2024. It is equal to 5.1% of annual GDP. www.caixinglobal.com/2026-02-14/c...

1/2 Yicai: "China’s tablet computer shipments rose 13.1 percent from a year earlier to 33.8 million units in 2025, driven by a device replacement cycle and the impact of the national subsidy policy. The growth underscores resilient consumer demand..." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...

Xinhua: "China's railway sector completed 46.3 billion yuan (about 6.67 billion U.S. dollars) in fixed-asset investment in January, up 5.5 percent year on year." english.news.cn/20260213/653...

"In sum, the empirical evidence presented in this section is broadly consistent with [] our theoretical framework. Countries that ramped up industrial policies between 2002 and 2019 experienced faster productivity growth and expansions of their tradable sectors". Is the tide finally turning?

1/5 The New York Fed finds that "U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025." libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...

1/7 My latest piece was written especially for friends who are EU policymakers or advisors. In it I argue that there is a difference between an inefficient manufacturing sector and a globally uncompetitive manufacturing sector. We shouldn't conflate the two. engelsbergideas.com/notebook/eur...

1/2 Reuters: "Chinese state-owned companies are buying foreclosed property projects, in a sign that long-promised government efforts to reduce massive oversupply in the crisis-hit housing sector are finally getting traction, albeit at a slow pace." www.reuters.com/world/china/...

Xinhua: In four first-tier cities and 31 second-tier cities, the average month-on-month price declines in January were 0.3% for new homes and 0.5% for resold homes, while prices in 35 third-tier cities fell 0.4% for new homes and 0.6% for resold homes." english.news.cn/20260213/f02...

This Indian site provides a review of the paper cited below: thedailybrief.zerodha.com/p/between-in...

European leaders should find inspiration in Keynes' insight – that the world becomes richer when economies raise productivity and allow wages to keep pace. Europe’s wage paradox | @michaelpettis.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/notebook/eur...

1/4 Very interesting and timely paper. The authors find that "industrial policies lead to trade surpluses if the government pursues an unbalanced policy mix, such that domestic demand does not rise as much as supply. These surpluses are absorbed by the rest... bw.bse.eu/wp-content/u...

Yicai: "Despite recent strength in the stock market, most industry insiders and institutions believe maturing high-interest fixed deposits will mainly remain in the banking system or flow into low-risk deposit-like assets." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinese...

Xinhua: "Chinese authorities have allocated 2.05 billion yuan in funds to directly benefit the public through the distribution of consumption vouchers, subsidies, and cash during the Spring Festival." That is well under one-tenth of 1% of the country's 9-day GDP. english.news.cn/20260211/1b9...

1/6 According to Greg Ip, in the US economy today, "rewards are going disproportionately toward capital instead of labor. Profits have soared since the pandemic. The result: Capital is triumphant, while the average worker ekes out marginal gains." www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

I don't have much expertise in the Taiwan economy, but this piece by Brad Setser is very good for those who are interested in the difference between currency intervention and "currency intervention". www.cfr.org/articles/tai...

1/5 Reuters: "The EU should consider either an unprecedented 30% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods or a 30% depreciation of the euro against the renminbi to counter a flood of cheap imports, a French government strategy report said on Monday." www.reuters.com/world/china/...

1/11 SCMP: "China’s potential growth rate could fall to about 2.5 per cent in the coming years unless action is taken, prominent Chinese economist Zhou Tianyong has warned." sc.mp/itwrt?utm_so...

When you do most of your shopping at airports, that's a sign that you travel way too much, but a bookshop in Jakarta airport has one of the best selections of books on finance, economics and economic history I have seen in any airport. I think this is a picture of the bookshop I went to yesterday.

Total fiscal revenues in China were down 1.7% in 2025, with a "slight" rise in tax revenue (driven mostly by a rise in income taxes) overwhelmed by a "double digit" fall in non-tax revenues. The economy grew nominally by about 4% in 2025. www.caixinglobal.com/2026-02-04/c...

Very interesting Bloomberg article on how distorted the global market for pharmaceuticals has become. It seems that drug prices were high in the US in part to keep them low in Europe. Perhaps it was inevitable that this system became unsustainable. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/2 NYT: "Familiar guideposts to how businesses, consumers, investors and workers have historically responded to economic slings and arrows have turned out to be less reliable. This has made interpreting the cascade of data trickier than ever." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/b...

1/8 Jason Furman: "A weaker dollar may improve the economy’s long-run balance, but it does so by forcing Americans to cut back on spending. That is like telling children to eat more spinach today so they will be healthier in the future." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/o...

1/4 Yicai: "China's macro leverage ratio – a measure of total debt relative to nominal GDP – rose by 11.8 percentage points to 302.3 percent in 2025, exceeding the 10.1 point increase recorded in 2024, according to a new research report by CASS. www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...

Xinhua: "China's shipbuilding output reached 53.69 million deadweight tonnes in 2025, up 11.4% year on year and accounting for 56.1% of the global total. New orders reached 107.82 million DWT last year, representing a 69% share of the global market." english.news.cn/20260203/900...

1/7 SCMP: "Chinese scholars have called for greater urgency in reducing reliance on US dollar assets, particularly after Washington and its allies froze about US$300 billion in Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022." www.scmp.com/economy/glob...

Yicai: "China’s industrial enterprises above a designated size posted a 0.6 percent increase in profits last year, reversing a downward trend that had persisted for three consecutive years." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-e...

SCMP: "China’s years-long property downturn has carried into 2026, with new-home sales sliding sharply and, by some measures, deteriorating at their fastest pace in recent years, down 27% in January from a year earlier." sc.mp/rrlqo?utm_so...

1/3 Yicai: "To rein in the worrying expansion of local debt, China introduced new policies in 2024 to strictly control new investments in 12 provincial-level administrative regions that were deemed to be high-risk." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/jilin-b...

1/3 Yicai: "The overall risks associated with the local government debt remain generally safe and controllable, China’s finance ministry said, after its latest data showed that the country’s local government debt expanded 15 percent last year." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...

Caixin notes that Washington's foreign policies have resulted in a very busy calendar for China's foreign affairs establishment as US allies seem increasingly to want to hedge their US relationship with stronger ties with China. www.caixinglobal.com/2026-01-31/a...

1/2 Caixin: "China’s provincial governments are starting a new five-year planning cycle on a cautious note, with most maintaining or lowering their economic growth targets for 2026 compared with last year, signaling continued economic headwinds." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-02-02/c...

I just finished Chris Miller's very interesting book on the silicon chip industry. Among other things it makes very clear how important chip manufacturing is, and how government intervention and support has been the most important factor in developing national industries.

1/2 Interesting article by Peter Harrell: "If Washington policymakers and U.S. trade partners recoil from the aspects of Trump’s trade policy that reflect a well-considered and historically American pragmatism just because... www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

1/2 Rana Foroohar: "Trump isn’t the solution to any of the world’s problems, but he does have an unerring ability to see where the fractures and faultlines in the old order are." www.ft.com/content/b32d...

1/2 SCMP: "Twenty-seven of the mainland’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions have increased monthly minimum wages over the past year, with half introducing double-digit rises – outpacing China’s 5 per cent gross domestic product growth rate in 2025." www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

1/2 China Daily: "The 2026 Spring Festival holiday will run from February 15 to 23, spanning nine consecutive days. The extended break — longer than in previous years — is not only reshaping travel and spending plans, but also amplifying the effects of... www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/26/...

Xinhua: "Guangdong Province has set a GDP growth target of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent for 2026. Guangdong Governor Meng Fanli said the growth target was set after taking into account development needs and a range of domestic and external factors." english.news.cn/20260126/20a...

1/2 Bloomberg: "Record outflows from exchange-traded funds held by Central Huijin sent the clearest signal yet that Beijing is no longer simply propping up the market, but actively reining in the rally — a sharp break from past rescue playbooks." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

FT: "Finance minister Andrzej Domański said that the case for adopting the euro had weakened as Poland has outpaced most Eurozone economies, even as EU member states are obliged to join the single currency area when certain criteria are met." www.ft.com/content/b4c0...

1/9 Bloomberg: "A tale of two economies is driving China’s stock market, prompting investors to raise bets on the beneficiaries of an industrial export boom at the expense of firms mired in a consumption slump." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/3 Bloomberg: "income growth in the US is running further behind consumer spending." Or, to put it another way, household debt is rising and/or household saving declining. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

SCMP: "China’s government is likely to set this year’s economic growth target in a range between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent, according to three sources briefed on the matter." If true, this is important (but not unexpected) news. sc.mp/wlix5?utm_so...

Caixin: "China’s youth unemployment rate fell to 16.5% in December 2025. Youth unemployment typically peaks during the summer graduation season before easing toward year-end. Despite the improvement, youth unemployment remained higher than a year earlier." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-01-22/c...

1/2 There is nothing wrong with the world importing EVs from China. If China has a comparative advantage in producing EVs, it should be a net exporter to the rest of the world. That's how global trade works best. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

1/12 This talk about Europe's ability to wield its holdings of US Treasuries as a political tool is as divorced from reality as the talk about China's ability to wield its holdings of US Treasuries as a political tool. www.ft.com/content/7d64...

1/7 EU commissioner for trade Maroš Šefčovič is absolutely right to question the usefulness of the WTO: "If the WTO is to meet today’s challenges, its rules must be fair and deliver balanced, legitimate outcomes. Currently, they do neither." www.ft.com/content/2ff1...

1/6 Reuters: "Chinese leaders have pledged to "significantly" lift household consumption’s share of the economy over the next five years, but have not given a specific target." www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...