Yicai: "China’s household debt fell by CNY786.9 billion last month, the steepest decline since records began, in start contrast with the seasonal mini spring recovery in the nation’s real estate market." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinas-...

While China's retail sales grew by a very disappointing 1.9% year on year in the first four months of 2026, according to Xinhua retail sales of services grew by 5.6%. english.news.cn/20260518/197...

Caixin: "Infrastructure investment remained relatively resilient, rising 4.3%, supported partly by spending on new infrastructure projects." No surprise. Infrastructure spending is the main thing under Beijing's control with which to hit the GDP growth target. www.caixinglobal.com/2026-05-18/c...

A point too often missed. Higher oil prices are effectively a transfer from net oil consumers (households and businesses) to net oil producers (private and state-owned oil companies).

1/5 It’s hard to know how significant this is, given the uncertainties created by the war, but April numbers were terrible for China. Industrial output grew 4.1% year on year in April, well below expectations. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/4 Reuters: "China has committed to purchasing at least $17 billion of U.S. agricultural ​products in 2026, 2027 and 2028." While this will be claimed as evidence that the meeting will reduce the US trade deficit, it is not obvious that it must. www.reuters.com/world/china/...

1/3 Peking University's Dandan Zhang explains that working hours for many workers in China, and especially gig workers, are way too long and are creating heath and social problems. They urgently need to be reduced. But cutting them creates a dilemma. www.eastisread.com/p/dandan-zha...

SCMP: "Sparks flew in a Beijing conference room last week, as diplomats, officials and experts from Europe and China clashed over their deepening trade problems." Joan Robinson warned that large, persistent trade surpluses would lead to retaliation and a contraction in trade. sc.mp/t8wu6?utm_so...

Bloomberg: "The lopsided foundations of world growth will focus global finance ministers this week in the aftermath of the summit that attempted to reset trade ties between its two biggest economies." Better late than never. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/4 NYT: "President Trump departed Beijing on Friday, touting trade deals to sell American-made airplanes, farm goods and other products, the signature outcome of his two-day summit with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader." www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/b...

1/3 Bloomberg: "China should upgrade “outdated” industries and not scrap them because manufacturing remains the backbone of the economy, according to the MIIT's Li Lecheng." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Caixin: "The U.K. government introduced a bill to parliament on Thursday that would allow it to nationalize British Steel Ltd., prompting China’s commerce ministry to urge London to protect the legitimate rights of the company’s Chinese owner." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-05-15/u...

1/12 Very good article by Greg Ip. I think the most important point he makes is this one: "The Achilles’ heel of Chinese industrial policy is its cost and waste. China runs bigger budget deficits relative to economic output than the U.S." www.wsj.com/world/china/...

While optimists hope that the summit will lead to a new US-China relationship, Jeremiah May argues that because the fundamental structural differences haven't changed, the best we can hope for is a short-term release of pressure. mayormaybenot.substack.com/p/a-sino-ame...

1/2 China’s credit demand continued to weaken in April: "Total social financing reached 15.45 trillion yuan from January to April, 893 billion yuan less than the same period a year ago. The April figure stood at 620.7 billion yuan." sc.mp/a053l?utm_so...

1/7 China Daily: "China's household income growth slowed in the first quarter and failed to keep pace with GDP, underscoring the urgency for policymakers to quickly flesh out detailed measures under their previously announced income growth plans." www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202605/14/...

For those interested in understanding the pressures facing China today, the best place to start is by understanding the structure of Japanese growth in the 1980s and its adjustment in the next two decades. This two-part series addresses some of these. eliasrutten.substack.com/p/japans-eco...

1/4 Good Bloomberg article on the extent of hidden bad loans in the Chinese banking system. It is pretty widely acknowledged that bad loans have risen dramatically everywhere except in the official NPL ratios. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/6 Bloomberg: "German Chancellor Friedrich Merz drew shouts and jeers at a labor union conference as he made a pitch for ambitious reforms, underscoring the difficulty he’ll face as he seeks to reverse his beleaguered government’s fortunes." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Dag Detter: "In China, too much capital is mobilised without enough return discipline. In Europe, too few public assets are structured in ways that allow it to be deployed. One system produces excess capacity. The other produces thin project pipelines." www.omfif.org/2026/05/chin...

According to Bloomberg, margin debt lending in China jumped to a record 2.8 trillion yuan on Monday, extending gains into a fourth session. Risk is rising, but I continue to expect that Chinese stocks will do well over the rest of this year. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

SCMP: "Pakistan is poised to become the latest partner in the China-centred Belt and Road Initiative, to sell “panda bonds” – yuan-denominated debt instruments sold onshore by foreign entities. Islamabad seeks to raise as much as US$250 million." sc.mp/4s657?utm_so...

Rhodium: "Chinese firms are emerging as major global competitors, but Beijing is intent on ensuring that this overseas expansion does not lead to a hollowing out of production or capabilities in China or a loss of control over key supply chains." rhg.com/research/chi...

1/2 Daire MacFadden: "In countries running a current account deficit, persistent imbalances have hollowed out domestic manufacturing and generated a political backlash, as today’s tariffs and other trade protectionism show." www.ft.com/content/193e...

1/2 I knew Beijing was losing population, but I hadn't realized the demographics driving it. According to SCMP, "The percentage of Beijing’s population aged between 20 and 29 plunged from 21.3 per cent in 2015 to 11.4 per cent in 2024." www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

1/4 According to Reuters, domestic car sales in China were down 21.6% year on year in April, even as car exports surged 80.2%. Everyone knows that domestic demand remains incredibly sluggish in China, but such sharp drops in domestic car... www.reuters.com/business/aut...

1/4 Bloomberg: "Iron ore rose as signs of solid Chinese demand offset concerns over rising supply" No surprise here. China needed to boost infrastructure investment sharply, and this had to be good for related commodities. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/2 I just finished David McCullough's 600-page book on the building of the Panama Canal. There was much less economic history here than I would have preferred, but it is nonetheless a great story, even if towards the end there is a little too much trivia.

According to an FT poll, 54% of US voters disapprove of Donald Trump’s handling of inflation and the economy, versus 39% who approve, showing the president’s tariffs and the war in Iran are hurting his party’s midterm prospects. www.ft.com/content/d08d...

1/2 Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: "In an interconnected trading system, resilience cannot be secured through national measures alone. The alternative to co-ordinated adjustment is a cycle of restrictions that leaves all countries worse off." www.ft.com/content/0886...

Bloomberg: "China called on Germany to play “a constructive role” in urging the European Union not to stray further toward protectionism." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/7 Bloomberg: "China pledged to step up efforts to defuse local government debt risk while supporting growth, as the State Council called for stronger policy execution in a challenging global environment." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Xinhua: "From January to March, the country's shipbuilding output was up 46% year on year, accounting for 57.3% of the global total. New orders surged 195.2% from a year earlier, representing 84.9% of the global market share." english.news.cn/20260509/9cf...

May 8, 1926: David Attenborough, a British biologist whose series of TV documentaries about Earth and its wildlife set new standards for nature filmmaking, is born in London. The presenter and writer popular for his unassuming style and enthusiastic narrative turns 100 today.

1/2 Xinhua: "China's gold consumption edged up 4.41% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, driven by a 46.4% increase in demand for gold bars and coins. Gold consumption for jewelry, however, fell 37.1%. While all of these gold purchases are classified in... english.news.cn/20260509/4ff...

1/6 SCMP: "Beijing’s tighter oversight of vicious price competition in the automotive sector is expected to increase borrowing pressure on mainland carmakers and accelerate the exit of weaker, debt-laden players amid softening consumer demand, according to S&P." www.scmp.com/business/chi...

1/3 To my friends in Beijing, the Sally Can't Dance Tuesday shows have become, over the past nine months, one of the main focal points for experimental and improvised music in Beijing. Because of the holiday, we moved Tuesday's performance to Saturday.

1/2 Good Caixin article on problems facing Chinese banks as they are forced to take on real estate assets behind defaulted property loans: "The problem is most acute for smaller lenders", draining their capacity to lend to local businesses and homebuyers. www.caixinglobal.com/2026-05-07/a...

China Daily: "A new wave of stimulus policies launched by Chinese cities including Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Wuhan is expected to lower homebuying costs and boost market confidence, paving the way for the housing market to stabilize in the coming months." www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202605/08/...

1/6 SCMP: "The EU’s top trade official used her departing appearance at the EU Parliament to pour cold water on the prospect of an investment deal with China, hinting that new weapons for dealing with Chinese “macroeconomic imbalances” could be on the way." sc.mp/6ku4s?utm_so...

1/4 Caixin: "The results underscore how China’s leading bad-debt managers are leaning on accounting gains linked to state-backed bank stakes to offset the effects of the prolonged property slump and broader economic slowdown." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-05-06/c...

Xinhua: "Sales revenue of China's consumption-related industries rose 14.3% year on year during the May Day holiday, reflecting a further release of consumption potential." That's good news, but what matter is if it can be sustained without faster growth in wages. english.news.cn/20260506/559...

1/2 Very good Michael McNair piece on the various confusions in Maurice Obstfeld's latest piece on global imbalances. Investors, business managers, workers, policymakers and even the IMF (albeit kicking and struggling) increasingly understand the adverse impacts of... medium.com/@mcnai002/a-...

1/3 Another very interesting Caixin article, this time on migrant workers: "China’s migrant workforce is aging as more workers move into lower-paying service jobs, putting pressure on income growth amid a shifting economic landscape." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-05-05/c...

Very interesting Caiixin article: "China is attempting to dismantle one of the most entrenched hierarchies in its schools: sorting students into academically ranked classes." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-04-30/i...

China Daily: "China has called on the EU to remove discriminatory requirements against foreign investors, local content mandates, compulsory transfers of intellectual property and technology, and restrictions on public procurement." www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/29/...

NYT: "Last year, China installed three times as much wind power capacity as the rest of the world combined, even as its turbine exports jumped. The war has made China’s investments in wind look prescient." www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/b...

WSJ: "...the limited progress made toward the Trump administration’s goal of reducing the deficit in the 12 months after President Trump rolled out steep global tariffs in April 2025." Not much surprise here. Trade policies only work if they are systemic and deliberate. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

1/9 Brilliant article by Martin Wolf on global imbalances. Wolf is one of the few economists who have an intuitive sense of the global economy as an economic system, which means he is also one of the few who understands how global imbalances work. www.ft.com/content/72ab...

SCMP: "China and Indonesia have launched a new cross-border QR payment system, marking the latest step in Beijing’s drive to build a regional digital payments network as it pushes to internationalise the yuan and reduce dependence on the US dollar." sc.mp/suk3y?utm_so...