1/6 FT editorial: "Other governments have not done much to play the role the US once did of seeking to anchor the world trading system. Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, and others have been talking about an alliance of middle powers seeking to save... www.ft.com/content/0ed6...

Reuters: "China's new home prices edged up in March, reversing a decline in the previous month, supported by a seasonal ​pickup in demand in major cities. New home prices in 100 cities rose 0.05% from a month earlier after falling 0.04% in February." www.reuters.com/world/china/...

1/12 On the centennial of Britain's 1926 general strike, the FT reviews three new books that discuss and explain the events that year. I haven't read them (although I'd love to do so), but it is worth noting what those events tell us about current conditions. www.ft.com/content/ab08...

1/4 Yicai: "China’s local debt cleanup is moving faster, with the central government’s debt swap program simultaneously lowering borrowing costs and shrinking the implicit debt pile." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinese...

Xinhua: "China's SOEs saw their total revenue rise 0.2 percent year on year in the first two months of 2026, while total profits fell 2 percent and total tax payments fell 2.3 percent." This in an economy that grew nominally by around 4% last year. english.news.cn/20260331/d48...

1/9 The FT argues that the WTO was further wounded in the recent Yaoundé meeting. This was probably inevitable. Unless the WTO arranges a transformation of its role in global trade, it is hard to see its continuing relevance. www.ft.com/content/2489...

1/4 WSJ: "The U.S. goods trade deficit with China shrank 32% to $202 billion last year. Yet the overall U.S. goods trade deficit grew 2.1% to a record $1.24 trillion because U.S. importers shifted rapidly to other markets." www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

For those interested in how members of the "national team" may have performed in the current stock market rally, Caixin notes the CITIC posted record-high revenues and profits in 2025, driven by proprietary trading and "financial investment". www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-27/c...

Good Damien Ma piece on Xi Jinping's efforts to shift the Chinese economy from extensive growth (generate growth by increasing labor, capital and resource inputs) to intensive growth (generate growth by using labor, capital and resource inputs more efficiently). carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

1/5 Good Chris Griswold piece on the implications of the decline last year in manufacturing jobs. I would add one other thing, and that is that there are two completely separate reasons for a decline in manufacturing jobs. www.commonplace.org/p/chris-gris...

Reuters: "China is considering easing shareholding restrictions for some major investors, people with knowledge of the matter said, in a move aimed at broadening capital-raising options for commercial banks reeling ​from an economic slowdown." www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

1/5 Last night, during a dinner with Tsinghua's Cui Zhiyuan and Columbia's Adam Tooze, Tooze bought up the subject of the 1953 London Debt Agreement, when Germany received substantial debt forgiveness (roughly half) on its pre-War obligations. elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcont...

1/6 Bloomberg: "“Singapore believes China can play a bigger role in supporting regional prosperity and stability,” Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said at the Boao Forum. “Its vast domestic market can be a powerful engine of growth for the region.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/9 Reuters: "China said that Mexico's trade measures against it, including tariff increases, ​constitute trade and investment barriers and that it had ‌the right to take countermeasures." rld/china/china-says-it-has-right-retaliate-against-mexicos-tariff-hikes-2026-03-25/

The East is Red translates a very interesting essay by Wang Xiaolu, Deputy Director of the National Economic Research Institute. This is well worth reading on the costs of very weak Chinese consumption and the structural impediments to a rebabalancing. www.eastisread.com/p/wang-xiaol...

For those who are Conference Board members, Zhang Yuhan has a very good summary of the Two Sessions meetings earlier this month. www.conference-board.org/publications...

1/9 Reuters : "China's leading state-owned banks are expected to recover this year from record-low profit margins as the repricing of ​nearly $8 trillion worth of maturing high-priced time deposits eases pressure on their funding costs." www.reuters.com/world/china/...

Ann Pettifor: "Tackling inflation with rate hikes while refusing to take regulatory action to deal with spiralling food prices, rocketing profits and falling real wages - means central bankers are acting politically." @annpettifor.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/annpetti...

1/5 This new paper by the Fed concludes that China's export success stems from weak domestic demand "rooted in structural features of China's economy and financial system—particularly those that constrain household consumption." www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...

1/2 FT: "Dani Rodrik is forthright in the need to prioritise national matters over international ones. “We might wish all governments find it in their interests to pursue free trade, but they don’t, and we need a global order that recognizes (and... www.ft.com/content/c751...

1/8 Xinhua: "China's top economic planner has announced that temporary control measures regarding retail prices of gasoline and diesel will be implemented starting on Monday, amid increases in international oil prices." english.news.cn/20260323/bfc...

Xinhua: "Chinese automakers have surpassed their Japanese counterparts in global vehicle sales for the first time, marking a significant shift in the global automotive industry." english.news.cn/20260323/7cd...

1/2 Joseph Sternberg has a good WSJ article on the slowdown in Chinese credit growth. In a recent substack post I discuss the article and why credit growth matters more than GDP growth in understanding the health of the Chinese economy. www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...

1/4 I am a little surprised by these comments from the governor of the PBoC. According to Yicai, yesterday he said that "the world’s major deficit countries are the same as 40 years ago because of the inherent flaws in the international monetary system." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/major-d...

1/5 SCMP: "A report from Renmin University has revived discussions about the “optimal size” of China’s foreign exchange reserves – with a focus on US Treasuries – calling for its world-leading forex holdings to be trimmed to a “moderately ample” level." www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

IMF's Dan Katz: "China can do more to increase consumption and domestic demand—especially for services—by boosting household incomes and reducing incentives for precautionary savings. That means shifting resources away from industrial subsidies and infrastructure." www.imf.org/en/news/arti...

A recent piece by Enrico Fardella and me on European trade pressures, translated into Spanish by Agenda Publica agendapublica.es/noticia/2045...

1/4 Bloomberg: "Chinese Premier Li Qiang has responded to growing calls from trading partners to address a rising trade surplus, with China’s exports continuing to surge in the first two months of the year." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Four weeks ago I was a keynote speaker at Princeton's Annual JRCPPF Conference. The topic this year was "Debt, Deficits & Global Imbalances". For those who might be interested (and there were some brilliant presentations), this video provides the links. www.youtube.com/watch?v=moGs...

Caixin: "The China Automobile Dealers Association said in a report that 55.7% of dealerships lost money last year, up 14 percentage points from 2024, as intense competition forced them to sell vehicles below cost." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-20/c...

Caixin: "Major Chinese carmakers are setting ambitious overseas sales and localized production targets for 2026 to offset a cooling domestic market." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-21/c...

Caixin: "Driven by a regulatory crackdown on risk in the financial system, the Chinese trust industry is being forced to abandon its old, highly profitable model of funneling funds into non-standard debt for real estate projects and local governments." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-20/c...

1/2 People's Daily: "China and the US agreed to explore the establishment of working mechanisms to expand economic and trade cooperation, continue to make good use of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, strengthen dialogue and... en.people.cn/n3/2026/0320...

1/8 Caixin: "China’s fixed-asset investment (FAI) returned to growth in the first two months of this year, rising 1.8% year on year, beating expectations as infrastructure spending jumped." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-16/c...

Caixin: "The escalating military conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran has triggered a regional equities sell-off and sent oil prices soaring, though asset managers have not yet seen a large influx of safe-haven capital into Chinese markets." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-10/c...

1/5 Yicai: "Local government acquisitions of idle land parcels have become a key part of efforts to reduce housing inventories," with special purpose bonds being used to fund such purchases. www.yicaiglobal.com/news/chinese...

Ruchir Sharma argues – correctly, in my opinion – that an excessively high GDP growth target drives China's persistent overinvestment in manufacturing and infrastructure, which in turn drives its soaring debt burden and its huge and rising trade surplus. www.ft.com/content/cb69...

1/2 I disagree with this Economist article. I explain why in a recent substack piece I published today. See below for the link. www.economist.com/leaders/2026...

1/6 SCMP: "The European Union has been urged by the EU’s official think tank to weaponise its giant market to draw concessions from China, whose economic fragility is making it increasingly reliant on rich export markets." sc.mp/npa0i?utm_so...

1/6 China's deflationary environment continues to improve, with high-than-expected numbers in February. CPI inflation was 1.3% year on year and 1.0% month on month. Month-on-month inflation has been positive since December and mostly positive since July. english.news.cn/20260309/3fc...

1/9 Bloomberg: "China’s leaders issued their strongest pledge yet to end deflation, a menace haunting the world’s No. 2 economy for three straight years by damaging business profits and holding down workers’ wages." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/3 Caixin: "China’s central bank will seek to prevent global shocks from spilling into its financial system, Governor Pan Gongsheng said Friday, citing rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over monetary policy in major advanced economies." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-06/c...

New York Times: Stella McCartney received a Légion d'honneur for "committing to sustainable and ethical fashion long before it was fashionable." Where are Edina Monsoon and Patsy Stone when you need them? www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/s...

1/6 SCMP: "Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, commenting on China’s record US$1.19 trillion trade surplus last year, said Beijing would increase imports of agricultural products, high-end consumer goods and advanced technology this year." www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

Yicai: "China plans to achieve more than 7 percent average annual growth in total research and development investment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, which runs from 2026 to 2030, to ensure investment in R&D remains strong." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/two-ses...

Xinhua: "Getting people to spend more has emerged as a major economic task for China in 2026 and beyond, aligning with the country's broader shift toward a consumption-driven growth model." Needless to say, I'm still pretty skeptical. english.news.cn/20260306/7b4...

Xinhua: "China has no need or intention to seek competitive edges in foreign trade through the depreciation of its currency, China's central bank governor said. The PBOC has always upheld the decisive role of market forces in exchange rate formation." english.news.cn/20260306/464...

1/8 Bloomberg: "China will issue 300 billion yuan of special sovereign bonds to recapitalize some of its largest banks, marking an expansion of Beijing’s efforts to fortify the nation’s financial system against a cooling economy and market volatility." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Caixin: "Beijingt is pivoting its real estate policy toward reducing the country’s vast inventory of unsold homes, marking a strategic shift in the annual government work report that drops an earlier emphasis on simply trying to stop the market’s decline." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-05/b...

1/3 Caixin: "China has made significant progress in containing local government debt risks, with more than 82% of local government financing vehicles phased out and their outstanding operational financial debt reduced by more than 74%." www.caixinglobal.com/2026-03-06/c...