Nothing says “we are liberating you from a bad regime to give you a better life” like bombing desalination plants and oil refineries

Memorable story by @benjudah.bsky.social. The last sentence is for the ages foglioeuropeo.ilfoglio.it/en/the-truth...

NEW: The European Union doesn’t think of itself as a geopolitical power in the South Caucasus. But its policies there are constraining Russia in ways that matter strategically—regardless of Brussels’ intentions. ip-quarterly.com/en/how-eu-co...

Germans seem trust countries run by democrats, distrust those run by strongmen/autocrats. I’d call this progress.

As my brilliant colleague @joachimstaron.bsky.social told me today: It’s no wonder Tarantino doesn’t make movies anymore. Trump‘s reality tops his cinematic fiction. First, “We had some possible successors on a list, but we killed them all.“ And now this.

Good stuff. Far-sighted British-German cooperation has never been more needed than right now.

Hasn’t Clacton suffered enough as it is?

Deutsche Welle @deutschewelle.dw.com asked me to comment on Chancellor Friedrich Merz‘ Washington visit (in German) www.dw.com/de/merz-trum...

NEW: The brunt of Iran’s response to the Israeli-American attacks has been directed at the Arab Gulf states, threatening the “Gulf Brand”—which will likely have knock-on effects for Europe. ip-quarterly.com/en/nightmare...

Yesterday, Macron announced a revolution in French nuclear deterrence, paving the way for its Europeanization. @josephdeweck.bsky.social and his co-authors predicted as much last week and explained why it’s a key piece in European defense ip-quarterly.com/en/franco-ge...

Another straw in the wind that Ireland beginning to take security and defence more seriously. www.irishtimes.com/politics/oir...

Good! And know, as @nicolange.bsky.social has suggested, let’s start building a military presence in Ukraine based on Art 42.2 TEU together with the UK and other “willing“ parties

“… may“?

As Merz travels to Beijing today, @tbenner.bsky.social, @jhensing.bsky.social & Florian Klumpp argue that Germany’s political and business elites need to finally confront the economic threat emanating from Xi Jinping’s China. ip-quarterly.com/en/germanys-...

Franco-German cooperation on nuclear deterrence needs to start now. The good news? Merz and Macron have indicated that they are ready. New from @shahinvallee.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, Elias Ricken, and Jacob Ross: ip-quarterly.com/en/franco-ge...

Young Königswinter, which I co-chair, brings together smart & innovative Brits & Germans aged 25-30. This year's takes place in Berlin July 29-Aug 2. Keen to get widest voices & backgrounds. Deadline: March 22. Info & applics: ykw.debrige.de/.../02/20/in... Do pass on. It's an amazing event

Trump, July 19: "All three nuclear sites in Iran were completely destroyed and/or OBLITERATED. It would take years to bring them back into service." Witkoff, Sunday: "They're probably a week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material."

Always nice to be back…

Remarkable intervention yesterday by the British and German CoDs writing in The Guardian and Die Welt: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Four years into the Russia-Ukraine war, territorial concessions remain a key sticking point in negotiations to end the conflict. Where do Americans stand? New Council-@ipsosus.bsky.social polling finds the US public firmly opposes granting Moscow control of territory beyond Crimea. #[bit.ly/3OcxrBm

In our @munsecconf.bsky.social special issue, Anne-Marie Slaughter asks if the decline of US soft power really matters. ip-quarterly.com/en/does-decl...

In a few hours, @munsecconf.bsky.social chairman Wolfgang Ischinger will open MSC 2026. When we interviewed him for the @ipq.bsky.social Special Issue, his emphasis on the importance of upholding international law and of differentiating between democratic and autocratic states stuck in my mind. ../

ALI: Artificial lack-of-intelligence

Welcome to Count Deregula's castle

There is a certain irony in that the US and now also the UK government are behaving just like WikILeaks did back in the day…

At the @munsecconf.bsky.social? Pick up a copy of our special issue at Bayerischer Hof or the press center. ip-quarterly.com/en/special-i...

Recommended reading: @ipq.bsky.social reflects on the state of the transatlantic relationship in the era of the “Trump Doctrine” and offers views and thoughts on Europe's way forward. @munsecconf.bsky.social securityconference.org/en/marketpla...

From our special @munsecconf.bsky.social issue: Patrick Keller on how Europe is building significant military capability within the framework of NATO defense planning—thanks to the EU. ip-quarterly.com/en/eu-natos-...

New #BerlinCable ip-quarterly.com/en/german-in...

for all of you heading to #MSC2026, here's a little primer on how (not) to talk about European security @ipq.bsky.social

Strategically, this really should be the British-German hour.

And we’re live — @munsecconf.bsky.social starts in 4 days. Great contributions by @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social Anne-Marie Slaughter @james-rogers.bsky.social @jpuglierin.bsky.social @claudmajor.bsky.social Patrick Keller @nicolange.bsky.social @joerglau.bsky.social Sophie Eisentraut & columnists

The end of arms control: With the expiration of New Start and Trump's failure to deliver a successor treaty he has promised since term one, the US and Russia have no legal limits on nuclear arsenals for the first time in 54 years. @sangernyt.bsky.social William Broad www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...

Oh, oh…

What would an ICE agent want to be doing around a polling location in November? Other than casting his/her vote?

The worse the global crises become, the more Friedrich Merz is pushing for quick decisions—if necessary, even against Germany's closest partner, France, @andreasrinke.bsky.social writes in a new piece. ip-quarterly.com/en/germanys-...

Got mail… #MSC2026

INBOX: Washington Post Ukraine Correspondent Lizzie Johnson announces that she has been laid off in the middle of a below-freezing war zone without power, heat, or running water.

always bears repeating that this is NOT a financial decision. jeff bezos is worth over 250 billion dollars. he can afford to lose many millions and never even notice it. this is, at its core, a political and personal decision by bezos to destroy the post

Many interesting points in our interview w/ Wolfgang Ischinger @munsecconf.bsky.social - transatlantic relationship/NATO far from dead, but Trump administration’s actions in January have raised doubts about Washington’s reliability … 2/

Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the @munsecconf.bsky.social, on increased doubts about the Trump administration’s reliability. This interview is part of our upcoming special issue for the Munich Security Conference: ip-quarterly.com/en/we-have-g...

Richard Moore: "I’m no longer sitting reading the intelligence, but my sense talking to people is that there is still absolutely zero sign that Putin is serious about negotiating. He obviously will play us along. He will try and spin things out." samf.substack.com/p/putin-is-n...

media friends: I'm looking for some new work to supplement the excellent roster of outlets I edit for on a regular basis (Jezebel, Foreign Policy, IPQ). Do you need a cover for an editor on leave, a fact-checker, a morning newsletter writer? I can do it all—and more! Please be in touch :)

The EU should have asked India for the same commitment. By not insisting on it, Brussels one again failed to “speak the language of power” (Merz). Still, it seems the EU-India agreement has created a new dynamic.

Good!

I’ve written this lengthy FT analysis overnight about the multiple multi-thousand pound Epstein payments to Mandelson’s husband these particular paragraphs are worth reading slowly www.ft.com/content/608a...

New from @tbenner.bsky.social: As inspiring as Mark Carney’s new middle powers doctrine is, it needs more honesty and realism. ip-quarterly.com/en/carney-do...

Former NATO SACEUR Adm Stavridis thinks the Europeans would be “just fine” were the US to walk out of NATO. I’m not so sure, but think the line 🇩🇪 Chancellor Merz took yesterday is the right approach under present circumstances— “strengthen NATO in and by Europe” www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

At last!