🪖 Who controls the defence industry? ❗ The #defence industry is gaining importance in Europe, but the methods by which states exercise control over it are poorly understood 📑 Working Paper by Marco Becht, @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/KmMPtn4 #EconSky

Big spending, little future: Germany is rearming differently from Poland and the UK - our new report is out: www.kielinstitut.de/publications...

Here we go. #TeamEurope

Dear 🇩🇪 government, it *is* in your job description to shield us from future energy crises. Not only a French thing. But 👏 to 🇫🇷

Interesting and very fast analysis on the economics of a possible toll paid to Iran 👇🏼

WSJ editorial board: "What a spectacle: America’s second-in-command campaigning on behalf of a Prime Minister who may lose, in a small central European country, while America is prosecuting a war in Iran" www.wsj.com/opinion/jd-v...

Could a Hormuz toll solve the oil crisis? I show that 80-95% of the toll would be paid by the Gulf states, meaning that the rest of the world is largely indifferent to a toll as long as oil supply is restored. (it's a simple tax incidence analysis) www.bruegel.org/analysis/cou...

New article with @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social : Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database (first 50 downloads without paywall) www.tandfonline.com/eprint/JV94K...

Starmer is asked directly by @jessicaelgot.bsky.social whether the UK will rejoin the Single Market. He does not rule it out.

NEW: "Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales: evidence for policy makers from a new database. " Our latest academic article with @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

New: Alex Burilkov&I analyse the financial asymmetry of asymmetric warfare and argue that Europe, like the Gulf, needs to learn two important lessons from Ukraine: - invest in cheap air defence - build strike capabilities to disrupt military production . www.bruegel.org/first-glance...

Das wird bestimmt viel Freude und neue Wähler bringen. Wie kann man nach den Wahldebakeln auf solche Ideen kommen? www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...

looking forward to the debate tomorrow. Please join!

"Vladimir Putin’s administration has endorsed a plan by the Social Design Agency, a Kremlin-linked media consultancy under western sanctions, to bolster Orbán’s Fidesz party by flooding social media with messages designed in Russia and posted by influential Hungarians." www.ft.com/content/34df...

Soon we can forget discussing the closure of Strait closure. Quatar LNG exports are down for many years

“Deeper defence co-operation across European countries is necessary to reduce costs for taxpayers and ensure technology is developed and controlled in Europe. This new initiative is a right step and I hope more countries will eventually join,” Wolff told the FT. www.ft.com/content/3dcd...

🇪🇺 Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups By Ethan Kapstein, Javier Ospital and @guntramwolff.bsky.social – @bruegel.org www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...

🪖Reforming European defence procurement to boost military innovation and startups European defence procurement practices must evolve to embrace innovative startups and small firms, in order to meet modern battlefield needs. 🖋️Ethan Kapstein, Javier Ospital @guntramwolff.bsky.social #EconSky

German gov't making a big strategic mistake. Instead of diversifying away from gas and oil, this will keep the country trapped in geopolitical dependencies.

new podcast - listen in

Sehr schade, dass sie anscheinend den SVR verlassen wird

Well done Spain. This should be EU-wide. A first (but hopefully not last) signal to the tech bros that their dystopian vision has no place in Europe giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Eine sehr interessante Studie meiner @ulbruxelles.bsky.social Kollegen Micael Castanheira, Giovanni Paolo Mariani und Clemence Tricaud. Sie zeigen, dass bei der Bereitstellung vieler öffentlicher Güter wie zB guter Schulen und Krankenhäuser die Ungleichheit eher erhöht wird

The EU cannot accept being coerced into selling Greenland. As the narcisist power grab of President Trump expands, it is important to say no. US lawmakers are being more vocal and so are European lawmakers and countries. Will Europe have to pay a price? - yes.

Nog niet zo lang geleden werd een Europees leger smalend afgedaan als luchtfietserij. Vandaag is een meerderheid van de Europeanen vóór. Alleen nationale politici stribbelen tegen. Defensie expert @guntramwolff.bsky.social in @nrc.nl “burgers zijn verder dan nationale politici”. Must-read artikel!

“De Amerikanen hebben weinig goeds met ons voor. Veel burgers snappen wat er op het spel staat, dat we voor een Europese defensie moeten gaan. Zij zijn verder dan de meeste Europese leiders.” Interview @guntramwolff.bsky.social www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...

Greenland PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen: "If we have to choose between the US & Denmark here and now, we choose Denmark. We choose NATO. We choose the Kingdom of Denmark. We choose the EU." "Greenland does not want to be owned by the US. Greenland does not want to be governed by the US" he later added.

Estimates for number killed in the Tiananmen Square massacre are greatly debated more than 30 years later. Experts say likely between 1,000-3,500. If CBS News warnings are true for Iran's 12,000-20,000 — we are looking at something 5x to 15x greater. A historic horror.

❄️ Greenland is not marginal: the US takeover threat is a strategic test for Europe ❓How should Europe respond to threats over Greenland? 📑 Read the First Glance by @guntramwolff.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/bffJUuG

Natürlich könnten sich die USA, wenn sie denn wollten, Grönland einverleiben. Die politischen und militärischen Kosten würden aber für die USA massiv steigen, schreibt Guntram Wolff. Mein Kommentar im Handelsblatt www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/gast...

amazing how the entire machine can pivot within 24 hours. no need to slowly upsell the argument; just issue new marching orders

In just a few hours, Bulgaria will adopt the euro. To mark this special moment, we are illuminating our main building in Frankfurt. We’re excited to welcome Bulgaria to the euro family 🇪🇺🤝🇧🇬 📸 by ECB

Important www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/19/r...

"Möchten Sie die Bundeswehr beliefern? Als Zulieferer der Bundeswehr müssen zahlreiche gesetzliche Vorgaben beachtet werden." ---> so die einführenden, werbenden Sätze auf der Seite des Bundesamts für Beschaffung #baainbw ---> Perfektes Marketing 😅 www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisat...

“It’s not great to come home without Mercosur or the plan on Russian assets,” said Guntram Wolff, senior fellow at Bruegel. “The question for Macron is whether it is smart to impose political losses on Merz on two big issues.” www.ft.com/content/99d2...

Closing out my year with a journal editor shocker 🧵 Checking new manuscripts today I reviewed a paper attributing 2 papers to me I did not write. A daft thing for an author to do of course. But intrigued I web searched up one of the titles and that's when it got real weird...

A few quick thoughts about this morning's decision. Don't believe the spin from various Russians & others: it's a big deal. The EU has now unambiguously demonstrated that it is able and willing to provide the external financial support Ukraine needs, for as long and as much as it takes. (1/N)

Most important is that Ukraine gets the money. Huge deal for EU: 1) if you want to do EU foreign policy, you need EU resources and debt. #EUCO delivered 2) First time this EU debt was decided without unanimity as far as I can remember www.consilium.europa.eu/media/wqmkno...

One big topic this week: the #Mercosur agreement. It would be absolutely appaling if the #EU again delayed. France should drop its absurd call for yet another delay. We have been debating this agreement for 25 years and yes, there are lot's of safeguards for special interests already.

Senator Kelly is correct. Plus a Public Service Announcement: KEY section of Department of Defense's Law of War Manual is 18.3.2.1. The VERY rule on the "requirement" to refuse illegal orders gives as its paradigmatic example of what is "clearly illegal: "orders to fire upon the shipwrecked."

Mark Kelly on the Trump/Hegseth boat strikes: "If orders are illegal, not only do they not have to follow them, they are legally required not to follow them."

🎙️ Ukraine talks: peace progress or dead end? @rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses Ukraine peace talks with @veron.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, and how the EU can manage the high-stakes standoff between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington. #EconSky Listen here:

"Right now, Ukraine may find itself facing a very tough choice. -Either the loss of our dignity or the risk of losing a key partner. " Zelenskyy ---> Let's all be honest here: the key partner has been lost for some time.

🪖 Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008 ✈️ What are the trends and values of United States Foreign Military Sales, and how have they changed over time? 🖊️ By @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social, @javier-ospital.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social 🔗 buff.ly/VuzCafe #EconSky

If your government thinks the Pope “doesn’t know what he’s talking about” when he defends migrants’ dignity, the world should see the warning sign. The US is no longer leading on human rights. It’s suppressing them.

Guntram Wolff is sceptical that churning out more tanks or artillery will bring long-term economic gains. However, if European governments direct their money towards new technologies, this will “have broader economic benefits”. Time to modernise armed forces @bruegel.org www.ft.com/content/ec99...

my quotes in @guardian “Historically, there’s this notion that greater defence cooperation is questionable for sovereignty...But the counter argument is that we have a huge dependency on the US. ... sovereignty doesn’t sit in Europe – it’s in Washington.” www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

Im Europamagazin des ARD wurde ich zum europäischen Klimaschutz befragt. Danke für das Interview

Fossil fuel use continues to climb, despite the growth of renewables. Bad news in today's Financial Times newsletter

It was a pleasure discussing in Berlin why Europe needs to invest in its domestic military industrial technological base - and why Germany's trust in the US is naive. A great Franco-German panel with a Polish chair.