We are hiring a tenure track (!) senior researcher in political economy! This is obviously a great job (permanent without teaching obligation) and I hope you all apply. However, I would like to take a moment to share just how significant this is in the German academic context ⬇️

They are charging the journalist who discovered government espionage *with* espionage. This is the model of authoritarianism that Trumpists promote as the ideal.

A new survey by Medián, Hungary's most reliable pollster gives a 23-pt edge to the opposition Tisza over Fidesz. Party leader Péter Magyar has recently started talking about what Tisza would do with a 2/3 supermajority which is within their reach if these numbers are accurate 444.hu/2026/03/25/a...

electrifying data... ;)

"The 1973 oil crisis incentivized consumers in the West to buy fuel-efficient Japanese cars. The oil crisis of 2026 will have similar effects, but with Chinese EVs." www.scmp.com/economy/chin... www.wsj.com/tech/persona...

Great post dissecting the current moment in Hungarian politics with a great line that could just as much apply to the years of GOP gerrymandered dominance here at home: "Another reason hope persists: the regime is not infallible. It is both relentless and often deeply incompetent."

It never works. But maybe it’ll work this time?

Superb commentary on the Hungarian elections in a few weeks "...the usual language of democracy becomes misleading. This is not a democracy with flaws. It’s an autocracy with elections."

Read @palmapolyak.bsky.social's excellent analysis of Hungary's upcoming elections: “systemic rigging plus material compensation is what made the regime so durable. That bargain has now broken (...) What is really different this time is the economic performance.”

Some good background on the upcoming Hungarinan elections. "For the first time, the regime is asking voters to tolerate autocracy and rampant corruption without delivering rising living standards in return."

Our new article on the limits of green concertation with @lucacigna.bsky.social is out in New Political Economy (in open access - thanks to @mpifg.bsky.social🙏)

Can Péter Magyar win a deeply rigged election? Would Orbán leave power—and would anything change even if he did? How did we even get here, and why, against all odds, do we still cling to hope? I wrote up my (admittedly messy) thoughts ahead of April 12 brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...

Lots of speculation rn (such as this FT article) on what war in the Middle East means for the future of oil. What do we know about the conditions under which we reach tipping points in clean energy adoption? Political science can tell us a lot! 🧵

Orban might finally lose, and the Hungarian opposition has a chance of stopping him soon. This piece explains how. But notice how three of the lines go up, especially on the right of the graph as elections approach? America’s lines are flat or down, giving US more chance to stop backsliding sooner.

If you read only one piece about the HU elections on April 12, it should be this one by @palmapolyak.bsky.social. Each of her points on caution are well-taken, and yet I am a bit more hopeful. Why? Because many of the regime advantages are already baked in the polls, and yet they show Magyar ahead.

These days everywhere I look I see the 'lemons' problem outlined by Akerlof decades ago www.jstor.org/stable/18794...

This is an excellent piece. And having spent a lot of time in some of the poorest corners of Hungary for #CrossBorderRail I can confirm it’s grim. I so much hope Orbán loses!

Of course, the polls can be wrong, we just don't know. Btw, on why we vote in autocratic elections, you may be interested in this piece: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Can Hungary Vote Out Its Autocrat? substack.com/@palmapolyak... - a view from the ground by @palmapolyak.bsky.social

This chart goes a long way in explaining why Orbán’s system is under real pressure for the first time. The growth that sustained it has stalled—and with it, the political bargain that kept voters on board. I tried to unpack what that means. 👉 brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...

“At that point, the usual language of democracy becomes misleading. This is not a democracy with flaws. It’s an autocracy with elections.”

A few updates. Project Syndicate have a magazine now - like a real one - and they asked me to do a piece for it back in January. It just came out. Held up surprisingly well (with a wee insert about Iran): prosyn.org/uj9MafY?h=AE...

Good thread on the upcoming HU elections. I agree with most of the points made. Gerrymander/malapportoinment is the biggest factor. It is estimated to give Orbán a 3-4% edge, meaning he can win a majority of seats even if he loses the popular vote by that margin. If he is down by 7-8%, he is toast.

Can Péter Magyar win a deeply rigged election? Would Orbán leave power—and would anything change even if he did? How did we even get here, and why, against all odds, do we still cling to hope? I wrote up my (admittedly messy) thoughts ahead of April 12 brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...

The corner routine was like—let’s just make it a Szobo free kick 🔥🪄 #LFC

20 goal contributions for Dom this season - scored 12, eight assists

Putin's Palace, Mini-Me Version

Day 19, 18th March, remember the day. It marks a big shift in war. The previously communicated red lines between the combatants were disregarded Qatar & Iran jointly own worlds largest gas field that Israel attacked. US's Exxon, France's Total & UK's Shell are investors www.ft.com/content/6112...

New OA article on nickel extraction & processing in Indonesia - I hope this is useful to someone 🙏 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

this war is bad bad for Europeans Still not fully sunk in

🚨 Just published in Socio-Economic Review! 🚨 @sasemeeting.bsky.social The "power to pollute" and "post-neoliberal" climate finance By Benjamin H. Bradlow and Aishwarya Swamidurai The article is available open access at the following link. doi.org/10.1093/ser/...

15/ Hard to see how Irans Hormuz chokehold isn't catastrophic for Ukraine 1 Fiscal boon to Russia. Relieves a main strain on RU war machine. 2 Politically, once RU oil is un-sanctioned it will be very difficult to re-sanction it. Ppl will have just lost their appetite for it Will EU amp up support?

📣 Publication day! The first paper from my project on Europe’s EV battery roll-out is finally out I unpack how the EU’s EV battery boom is entangled with sacrifice zones—investment in Serbia & Hungary de-risked through autocracy. www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandg...

Despite controlling the world's reserve currency and being the top military power, the US has lost its monopoly on major sanctions, says Nicholas Mulder. Limits to US power exposed by: 1/ China's rare earths export controls last year, and 2/ Iran with Strait of Hormuz effective closure

Reverse Suez @70sbachchan.bsky.social @shahinvallee.bsky.social www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/u...

Dizzying charts from the new V-Dem Report, confirming that the United States’ experience of democratic decline is even steeper than what we experienced in Hungary. www.v-dem.net/documents/75...

Just a reminder that the Washington Treaty defines the geography of NATO’s mutual defense pledge — at U.S. insistence in 1949 — to prevent allies from committing us to their wars outside of Europe.

Cheers to everyone who delayed fossil fuel phaseout by saying "you can't switch off fossil fuels overnight" Because thanks to them everyone now has to face a situation where fossil fuels are switched off overnight 🙃🙃🙃

War is reshaping global markets. I have a paper under review that asks: who wins or loses when supply chains meet geopolitics, and what are the political implications? Since the world is changing faster than our overburdened peer-review system can handle, here's the 📃 + a🧵 osf.io/preprints/so...

Budapest—the prettiest of all capitals on any day—looks even more gorgeous tonight. Massive crowds at Péter Magyar’s opposition rally, 28 days before election day. Whether it’s possible to defeat Orbán’s autocratic regime at the ballot box remains doubtful. But hope is stubborn.

Korea has been MANUFACTURING chips+batteries leader for so long that ppl forgot that it is a HUGE oil & gas importer. We urged Korean govt to DEPLOY green fast for its prosperity & security in our '24 & '25 report. Hormuz market crash is forcing the issue. static1.squarespace.com/static/64ca7...

11/ This is a far bigger fuel, fertilizer, food crisis for Asia and Europe than it is for the US. Europe stuck between American, Russian, and Middle East oil is trapped in what my report diagnosed as a "Permanent Suez". It must go green for its autonomy. www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/u...

Tale of two petrostates. Data from @robbieandrew.bsky.social: robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Kindleberger trap I can’t walk out I’m not the hegemon, baby Why can’t you see What you’re doing to me My security umbrella’s tearing We can’t go on together Strait of Hormuz is mined Can’t keep the sea lanes open With suspicious mines

Brilliant take from @triofrancos.bsky.social. The Western green movement was so fugace. And the Great Green Dismantling started well before the Trump 2.0 fascist backlash: weak politicians, powerful carbon lobbies, disorganised green industry, mediocre conservatives lurred into "antiwoke" narratives

Look at it. Hormuz has that MAIN CHARACTER ENERGY "I realized I've only seen maps of the Strait of Hormuz and was curious what it actually looks like. It's majestic! It could be a tourist destination" x.com/moorehn/stat...

manager magazin: "A local battery champion in Europe would be extremely important for the automotive industry" Oliver Zipse: "It would increase the number of potential suppliers. However, I still think a 'Europe only' approach without involvement of established cell manufacturers is impossible."

21/ Its day eleven. Hormuz is Closed. Fuel is trapped in Persian Gulf. Asian Countries now rationing fuel. – Vietnam told people to WORK FROM HOME because they're running out of fuel – Bangladesh started fuel RATIONING -limits on how much you can pump per vehicle –Asia-wide petrol prices surging

pleased to announce the merger of @erikpeinert.bsky.social (antitrust) and my (corporate organization / franchise) interests in a paper on what the end of regulation banning vertical restraints meant for the US political economy = not good ! academic.oup.com/ser/advance-...

This Hormuz choke to cause financial meltdown was the strategic calculation on Iran's part: Pain delivery to get Trump and Netanyahu to a negotiated settlement. Bloomberg: "Global markets have lost $6 trillion since the war began. Stagflation Trades Sweep Markets as Trump Signals Widening War"