This WSJ story about a Chinese auto-glass plant in Ohio is interesting less as a China story than as a window into the challenges of U.S. industrial policy going forward. 1/ www.wsj.com/business/tar...

This @nytopinion.nytimes.com op-ed on rare earths repeats a misleading story: that China dominates these industries mainly because of lax labor and environmental standards. It sounds intuitive, but it’s analytically wrong in ways that matter for policy. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/o...

Listened to this Oddlots episode with utilities analyst Andy DeVries this morning. Some useful pushback on the data center/AI power demand narrative that's worth working through. 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

New essay by @steffenmurau.bsky.social on Trump admin's misunderstanding of dollar hegemony—and four possible futures for the international monetary system. 1/ www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...

1/ New Kiel Institute study on 2025 tariffs. The headline finding won't shock anyone who studied 2018-19 tariffs: near-complete pass-through to US importers. Foreign exporters absorbed ~4% of burden; Americans paid ~96%. www.kielinstitut.de/publications...

1/ Interesting recent writing by @cornelban.bsky.social on “decoupling” in the auto sector — and why, on the ground, it’s largely fiction. German automakers aren’t pulling out of China. They’re re-anchoring there. substack.com/home/post/p-...

China has achieved first-mover advantage in autonomous, connected, electric (ACE) vehicles. The US response has been tariffs and market isolation. A new CFR paper by @profdavidhart.bsky.social argues this is a trap—we need to compete, not retreat. 1/ www.cfr.org/report/compe...

The EU hasn’t abandoned the EV transition — it has softened the symbolism while preserving the substance. That’s exactly what you’d expect when technology bans function as industrial policy signals rather than irreversible environmental commitments. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Industrial policy is back — and it's changing fast. What started as "green" strategy is now a global race for clean tech competitiveness and economic security. But do we actually know what works? That's what we're asking at the New Energy Industrial Strategy (NEIS) Center. /1

Germany apparently not so sure it wants to save its auto sector by making it competitive.

Leave it to the Times to run this story on the LAST day the tax credits for EVs are available. This would have been helpful information for Americans three months ago, or, even better, before the 2024 election! www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

1/ The administration is exploring using Japan's $550 billion fund to directly spur US factory construction through government-backed facilities that companies could lease. This marks a significant expansion of federal involvement in manufacturing. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...?

Happy Samin day to those who celebrate :)

1/18 The U.S. Trade Representative has initiated public consultations ahead of the mandatory USMCA review on July 1, 2026. This review will determine whether the US, Mexico, and Canada extend the agreement for another 16 years. public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-18010.pdf

1/4 California refineries are closing faster than gas demand is declining. Two facilities shutting down could eliminate another 18% of the state's refining capacity. Gasoline consumption has fallen 16% over 20 years. buff.ly/26t8H5J

1/ New report from @bentleyallan.bsky.social's Net Zero Policy Lab: As the US withdraws from green tech industries and pressures allies to follow suit, China is stepping in to power the developing world's energy transition. The scale is staggering. www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-...

August inflation: Overall inflation up to 2.9% (from 2.7%) Groceries spiked 0.6% in one month Real wage growth slowed from 1.3% → 0.7% Your paycheck is buying less stuff, grocery bills are hitting harder. Fed still likely to cut rates despite moving further from 2% target.

1/ U.S. officials in Europe this week argued that climate policy is “ideological” and a drag on prosperity. The evidence suggests the opposite. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/c...

Total federal spending is up +8% in 2025 year-to-date to Sept 9 over 2024. The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere. Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.

Graph of intense pain and suffering (this is after the 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee)

The adults in the room: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/u...

US economy added nearly 1 million fewer jobs than previously reported in 2024-early 2025. Actual job growth was only about half of what the government initially claimed. The labor market may be much weaker than it appeared. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...

We begged Korea for factory investments. Our visa system is too slow (and was shut down altogether for a while earlier this year) , so they used ESTA/B-1 workarounds. Now we're raiding the sites and halting the investments we wanted. 22 projects frozen. www.kedglobal.com/business-pol...

"The tariffs’ uncertainty has forced insurance companies to raise rates... consumers have to pay that extra cost”

America lost 7k construction jobs in August, and overall job growth in the sector is now at its worst pace since the pandemic Over the last year, the US has lost 31k jobs in residential construction and only gained 78k jobs in nonresidential & civil construction

1/8 John Deere is the exact type of American manufacturing company Trump says he wants to protect with tariffs. But those same tariffs are crushing the iconic tractor maker—and it's a perfect case study in how trade wars backfire. buff.ly/gBpj5xy

👀 www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

What absence? www.wsj.com/business/aut...?

Ahead of #JobsDay tomorrow, Friends of BLS published a FAQ answering pressing questions like: Can the public trust BLS products? What's up with the firing of Dr. McEntarfer & nomination of Dr. Antoni? Why and how does the BLS revise jobs estimates? #EconSky www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

1/12 Yale Budget Lab's new analysis reveals mixed results from 2025 tariffs through August. Some effects align with economic theory, others present concerning developments, and a few show unexpected bright spots. Here's what the data shows: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sho...

Perhaps not entirely surprising, but trade policy uncertainty is preventing the kind of reshoring from China that is ostensibly one of the administration's central goals. For now, firms are staying put. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

1/18 Is China's economy collapsing or dominating? Meg Rithmire's new piece in Current History argues it's doing both simultaneously—and that's the problem.

The real crisis gripping the United States: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

1/6 Interesting piece by Greg Ip on Trump's Intel stake. Trump took a 9.9% stake in Intel, but his rationale reveals the problem: he boasted about paying zero for Intel while it's worth approximately 11 billion dollars. It's about money, not strategy. www.wsj.com/tech/intel-g...

1/8 A federal appeals court ruled 7-4 against Trump's tariffs, but the substantial dissent signals a real fight ahead at the Supreme Court. The legal battle centers on a fundamental question: what does "regulate importation" mean?

1/12 In 2010, a US gov study warned that rebuilding America's rare earth supply would take 15 years. The 15 years are up. China just proved its leverage by forcing trade concessions from Washington. Meanwhile, Japan quietly solved the same problem. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Trump's ending the $800 duty-free exemption on Friday but customs hasn't told postal services how to actually collect the tariffs. Germany and Singapore just said forget it and stopped shipping packages to the US entirely. www.ft.com/content/43ae...

Border Patrol arrests 2 firefighters for being in the country illegally as they battled Washington’s biggest wildfire www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/u...

Can't argue with physics. www.wsj.com/business/ret...

#NumbersDay qz.com/moodys-chief...

1/ The Trump admin's recent $8.9 billion equity stake in Intel raises questions about what problem this investment is meant to solve. When compared to the MP Materials and US Steel deals, it's unclear what market failure the Intel equity stake addresses. www.wsj.com/tech/trump-t...?

Intel immediately files with the SEC warning that Trump's government stake could kill their international sales because apparently foreign customers aren't thrilled about buying chips from America's newest state-run enterprise. www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

1/10 Hyundai's $2B Georgia plant shows how automation can help manufacturing in the US. But sustaining that reshoring depends on winning the automation race. China's $20+ billion bet on humanoid robotics shows they understand the stakes. www.wsj.com/business/aut...

Your occasional reminder -- as arrivals on student visas decrease 28% -- that tuition from foreign students counts as an export, which means that every rejected student visa is going to contribute to the US trade deficit. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

1/12 This Foreign Affairs piece by Dan Wang and Arthur Kroeber argues the US misunderstands why China succeeds in tech and manufacturing. The problem isn't that China "cheats" - it's built deep infrastructure enabling rapid innovation. I agree. buff.ly/ZpA3DSo

1/12 This Foreign Affairs piece by Dan Wang and Arthur Kroeber argues the US misunderstands why China succeeds in tech and manufacturing. The problem isn't that China "cheats" - it's built deep infrastructure enabling rapid innovation. I agree. buff.ly/ZpA3DSo

How does giving the gov't a 10% stake actually fix Intel's core problem of struggling to find customers for its chips and foundry business? www.nytimes.com/2025/08/18/t...

Just for context, BMW exports about 225,000 cars from the United States alone (not Germany!), worth about 10 billion total. This is growing fast, but it's not big yet!

I just published a chapter on "US-China Relations and the Competitive Turn of Green Industrial Policymaking" in this volume on climate policy (thanks @matpaterson.bsky.social and @stacydvandeveer.bsky.social!) Since the book went to press, developments have validated my core arguments. 1/

1/14 China's July export data reveals tensions in its economic strategy. While "New Three" sectors posted strong growth, the sustainability is questionable amid global overcapacity concerns and trade restrictions. www.caixinglobal.com/2025-08-19/c...