1/ China's May trade data just complicated the story Washington tells itself about decoupling. Exports to the US jumped 35% — the fastest pace in five years — led by the inputs feeding America's own AI build-out.

1/ Amid all the hype around China's 15th FYP, worth revisiting this CTVC piece to understand how clean tech financing actually works in China — and what it means for Western strategy. www.ctvc.co/an-insiders-...

1/ New report from Roosevelt pushing back on "manufacturing doomerism." The sector data is important and underappreciated. But I think it also inadvertently makes a case it doesn't intend to make. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

1/ New piece on the NEIS Center Substack by @luukschmitz.bsky.social: conditionality in industrial policy isn't just a safeguard against waste — it also has real costs. And those costs are systematically underweighted in the current debate. neiscenter.substack.com/p/industrial...

Spring in Beijing

1/ The EU-Mercosur deal entered into force last week. 25 years of negotiations, 700 million people, the largest trade agreement the EU has ever signed. Brazil's president framed it as a response to Trump's tariffs and a reaffirmation of multilateralism.

Catherine Goldberg and I have a new piece on the New Energy /Industrial Strategy Center's substack on what my lab's flagship project--the Clean Industrial Capabilities Explorer--reveals about the global race for clean energy manufacturing. 🧵

China automates while America hesitates. I have a piece in the NYT today arguing that America's strategy to compete with China in manufacturing is fundamentally misconceived — and that we're heading toward a reckoning we're not prepared for. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/o...

You need to read this. by @jonasnahm.com www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/o...

This is an excellent article by my colleague @jonasnahm.com. American innovation has been captured by a Silicon Valley mindset, and this has important disadvantages... www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/o...

New on SHIFT KEY: @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social hosts an emergency episode with Johns Hopkins’ @jonasnahm.com on the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and what it all means for the energy transition. Check it out here or wherever you get your podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...

Today on a special emergency episode of Shift Key: I’m joined by the great @jonasnahm.com to discuss the big SCOTUS tariff ruling; what it means for solar, EVs, and electricity; and why it’s time (alas) to learn about the other tariff powers the president can use — as well as their limitations.

The Trump admin this month made its biggest move yet on critical minerals: a $12B commercial stockpile and a 50+ country trading bloc. I unpacked what these tools can and can't do in a new piece with Abby Wulf and Sarah Ladislaw. 1/

Economy added 130K jobs in January, but manufacturing gained just 5,000—after a long slide in the fall. Tariffs were supposed to bring production back, but factories still aren't hiring.

This WSJ story about a Chinese auto-glass plant in Ohio is interesting less as a China story than as a window into the challenges of U.S. industrial policy going forward. 1/ www.wsj.com/business/tar...

This @nytopinion.nytimes.com op-ed on rare earths repeats a misleading story: that China dominates these industries mainly because of lax labor and environmental standards. It sounds intuitive, but it’s analytically wrong in ways that matter for policy. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/o...

Listened to this Oddlots episode with utilities analyst Andy DeVries this morning. Some useful pushback on the data center/AI power demand narrative that's worth working through. 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

New essay by @steffenmurau.bsky.social on Trump admin's misunderstanding of dollar hegemony—and four possible futures for the international monetary system. 1/ www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tru...

1/ New Kiel Institute study on 2025 tariffs. The headline finding won't shock anyone who studied 2018-19 tariffs: near-complete pass-through to US importers. Foreign exporters absorbed ~4% of burden; Americans paid ~96%. www.kielinstitut.de/publications...

1/ Interesting recent writing by @cornelban.bsky.social on “decoupling” in the auto sector — and why, on the ground, it’s largely fiction. German automakers aren’t pulling out of China. They’re re-anchoring there. substack.com/home/post/p-...

China has achieved first-mover advantage in autonomous, connected, electric (ACE) vehicles. The US response has been tariffs and market isolation. A new CFR paper by @profdavidhart.bsky.social argues this is a trap—we need to compete, not retreat. 1/ www.cfr.org/report/compe...

The EU hasn’t abandoned the EV transition — it has softened the symbolism while preserving the substance. That’s exactly what you’d expect when technology bans function as industrial policy signals rather than irreversible environmental commitments. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Industrial policy is back — and it's changing fast. What started as "green" strategy is now a global race for clean tech competitiveness and economic security. But do we actually know what works? That's what we're asking at the New Energy Industrial Strategy (NEIS) Center. /1

Germany apparently not so sure it wants to save its auto sector by making it competitive.

Leave it to the Times to run this story on the LAST day the tax credits for EVs are available. This would have been helpful information for Americans three months ago, or, even better, before the 2024 election! www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

1/ The administration is exploring using Japan's $550 billion fund to directly spur US factory construction through government-backed facilities that companies could lease. This marks a significant expansion of federal involvement in manufacturing. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...?

Happy Samin day to those who celebrate :)

1/18 The U.S. Trade Representative has initiated public consultations ahead of the mandatory USMCA review on July 1, 2026. This review will determine whether the US, Mexico, and Canada extend the agreement for another 16 years. public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-18010.pdf

1/4 California refineries are closing faster than gas demand is declining. Two facilities shutting down could eliminate another 18% of the state's refining capacity. Gasoline consumption has fallen 16% over 20 years. buff.ly/26t8H5J

1/ New report from @bentleyallan.bsky.social's Net Zero Policy Lab: As the US withdraws from green tech industries and pressures allies to follow suit, China is stepping in to power the developing world's energy transition. The scale is staggering. www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-...

August inflation: Overall inflation up to 2.9% (from 2.7%) Groceries spiked 0.6% in one month Real wage growth slowed from 1.3% → 0.7% Your paycheck is buying less stuff, grocery bills are hitting harder. Fed still likely to cut rates despite moving further from 2% target.

1/ U.S. officials in Europe this week argued that climate policy is “ideological” and a drag on prosperity. The evidence suggests the opposite. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/c...

Total federal spending is up +8% in 2025 year-to-date to Sept 9 over 2024. The story that the fed govt is tightening its belt is contradicted by its own real-time expenditure data. Admin spectacularly hammering some things but raising spending elsewhere. Was -7% just after Inauguration Day.

Graph of intense pain and suffering (this is after the 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee)

The adults in the room: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/u...

US economy added nearly 1 million fewer jobs than previously reported in 2024-early 2025. Actual job growth was only about half of what the government initially claimed. The labor market may be much weaker than it appeared. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/b...

We begged Korea for factory investments. Our visa system is too slow (and was shut down altogether for a while earlier this year) , so they used ESTA/B-1 workarounds. Now we're raiding the sites and halting the investments we wanted. 22 projects frozen. www.kedglobal.com/business-pol...

"The tariffs’ uncertainty has forced insurance companies to raise rates... consumers have to pay that extra cost”

America lost 7k construction jobs in August, and overall job growth in the sector is now at its worst pace since the pandemic Over the last year, the US has lost 31k jobs in residential construction and only gained 78k jobs in nonresidential & civil construction

1/8 John Deere is the exact type of American manufacturing company Trump says he wants to protect with tariffs. But those same tariffs are crushing the iconic tractor maker—and it's a perfect case study in how trade wars backfire. buff.ly/gBpj5xy

👀 www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

What absence? www.wsj.com/business/aut...?

Ahead of #JobsDay tomorrow, Friends of BLS published a FAQ answering pressing questions like: Can the public trust BLS products? What's up with the firing of Dr. McEntarfer & nomination of Dr. Antoni? Why and how does the BLS revise jobs estimates? #EconSky www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...

1/12 Yale Budget Lab's new analysis reveals mixed results from 2025 tariffs through August. Some effects align with economic theory, others present concerning developments, and a few show unexpected bright spots. Here's what the data shows: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sho...

Perhaps not entirely surprising, but trade policy uncertainty is preventing the kind of reshoring from China that is ostensibly one of the administration's central goals. For now, firms are staying put. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

1/18 Is China's economy collapsing or dominating? Meg Rithmire's new piece in Current History argues it's doing both simultaneously—and that's the problem.

The real crisis gripping the United States: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

1/6 Interesting piece by Greg Ip on Trump's Intel stake. Trump took a 9.9% stake in Intel, but his rationale reveals the problem: he boasted about paying zero for Intel while it's worth approximately 11 billion dollars. It's about money, not strategy. www.wsj.com/tech/intel-g...

1/8 A federal appeals court ruled 7-4 against Trump's tariffs, but the substantial dissent signals a real fight ahead at the Supreme Court. The legal battle centers on a fundamental question: what does "regulate importation" mean?

1/12 In 2010, a US gov study warned that rebuilding America's rare earth supply would take 15 years. The 15 years are up. China just proved its leverage by forcing trade concessions from Washington. Meanwhile, Japan quietly solved the same problem. www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...