Abandon all hope, ye who enter here

We need to see FIDs, but Trump’s attacks on Canada may have formally ended the Biden & earlier era of 🇨🇦 allegiance to the North American business model of ICE SUVs and trucks, with a fast transition towards the global trend to Chinese based transnational EV makers.

Whether or not you think Fortress North America was a good idea, Canada tried pitching it in the early months of Trump II, got cross-border economic warfare in return, and here we are.

“Electrification will be the shock absorber” Dr. Tim Sahay and the @nzpolicylab.bsky.social in the NYT today.

One of those things that just would not be happening without Trump. Biden had closed ranks on China, but with chaos in the WH, countries like Canada look to hedge.

Time to check in on American Hegemony

Jensen Huang: US robotics industry will have to rely on China’s supply chain: “... because their microelectronics, motors, rare earth and magnets – which are foundational to robotics – are the world’s best. So ... our robotics industry relies deeply on their ecosystem and their supply chain”

For a granular view of who is poised to win and lose in this new order, dig in to our Clean industrial capabilities explorer: cice.netzeropolicylab.com

The central faultline of the emerging post-liberal international order will be a geopolitical struggle over what metabolic-industrial system will dominate the 21st century — with smaller powers struggling to avoid total alignment with either bloc. My latest: foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/c...

A new world order

So far so good

If I was Arsenal I would just win all the remaining games.

Where should nations invest in clean energy industries? The Clean Industrial Competitiveness Explorer from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab, which ROSEI's @bentleyallan.bsky.social is co-director of, helps identify where nations can compete. #HopkinsEnergy energyinstitute.jhu.edu/a-new-compas...

With the Strait of Hormuz almost entirely closed, fertilizer producers face major disruptions during a critical time of planting season. @noahjgordon.bsky.social and Lucy Corthell break down the potential strain on the global food system: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Catherine Goldberg and I have a new piece on the New Energy /Industrial Strategy Center's substack on what my lab's flagship project--the Clean Industrial Capabilities Explorer--reveals about the global race for clean energy manufacturing. 🧵

time for a drink

This week Secretary Hegseth gave an object lesson in the folly of hyper-masculine overconfidence: the administration claimed all week that it controls the war and Iran‘s destiny without boots on the ground. They forgot we live in an asymmetric world in which small acts have big economic impacts.

My Trade Secrets today. Latest superpower energy offers to emerging markets: China - cheap green tech to wean you off hydrocarbons. US - coercion into trade deal to buy US fossil fuels, then huge chaotic war creating global oil shock. WHICH MESSAGE WILL RESONATE? 1/2 as.ft.com/r/8b8df69a-5...

Where do oil prices go now that Iran counterattacks w missiles all across the Gulf. A literal trillion dollar question Insurance → shipping costs → oil prices → a global inflationary shock. reporting @leeharris.ft.com ft.com/content/2dc1...

Despite being a late entrant to the space industry, South Korea has rapidly caught up thanks to a combination of mutually reinforcing factors. @darciedraudt.bsky.social examines these developments and explores how this momentum can be sustained: youtu.be/eVXH0EL22Xs

Drone manufacturing is about the tight integration of forward innovation, flexible manufacturing, and scaling. The countries that win have modular, AI enabled manufacturing platforms. This is now the basis of physical security and economic competitiveness.

I wrote about driving a Chinese car, the automotive trend not of the future but of today open.substack.com/pub/musgrave...

A quick hit to help make sense of Trump's tariffs

European defence heads still stressed about building xUS tech sovereignty. An example in the article, Canadian-made frigates using a version of the Aegis system, reveals the complexities. The system is built on Lockheed 🇺🇸 hardware, but uses Canadian software from Lockheed 🇨🇦. 1/3

The WSJ reports that the Trump admin is considering national security tariffs on a broad group of goods. Many of these probably won’t stand up in court as falling under 232 (think steel). Either way, raising the price of grid equipment when energy prices are skyrocketing is a terrible idea.

This is the key dilemma in integrating AI into university education. All the 'innovative' tactics - critiquing AI generated content, using AI to reproduce good writing - assume skills will develop in the interaction, but it's like expecting food photographers to cook tasty meals

An emerging narrative around AI is that the judgment of individuals matters more in this new world. That sounds right, as far as it goes, but it ignores a fundamental truth about judgment—it is forged in experience. So if we delegate too much, we may be unable to exercise judgment.

Wait what theconversation.com/the-worlds-2...

Oh, Canada www.castanet.net/news/BC/6001...

BESS cheaper ➡️ BESS boom ➡️ Renewables cheap ➡️ Renewables boom ➡️ BESS cheaper 🔄

Seems like a good time to re-up this Bloomberg piece pointing out that tariffs were likely *hurting* not helping U.S. manufacturing. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Seems like a simple talking point for the elections: the affordability agenda begins with a refund to American consumers for the illegal tariff price hikes.

Tooze with the strong case for a European army, illustrating the logic that crisis drives European integration forward.

Tariffs hurt American manufacturing because U.S. manufacturing is dependent on high-tech and upstream inputs, especially from Asia. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

To deliver on its vision of middle-power agency, Canada needs a focused and collaborative approach to building technological capabilities. Then it must integrate its capabilities with key partners through joint industrial policy. My latest in the Financial Post: financialpost.com/news/economy...

My latest: Canada needs a focused and collaborative approach to building the technological capabilities and critical minerals supply chains necessary to realize PM Carney’s vision for middle power-led strategic autonomy.

The MAGA foreign policy project, insofar as it is coherent, the same old Cold war ideological hegemony project, except illiberal rather than liberal. www.ft.com/content/f869...

“Science & advocacy awakened people to the threat of fossil-fuel-driven environmental catastrophe...” @bentleyallan.bsky.social writes. “Yet it was naive to believe that this alone could transform a global energy system forged over centuries by war & empire." www.noemamag.com/the-new-geop...

Leger has the Liberals out to a 9-point lead over the Conservatives now. The spring election speculation is not going away any time soon. leger360.com/wp-content/u...

I want to be clear about what I’m saying here. The only way to restore credibility as a reliable and safe ally is to totally and utterly repudiate this administration. That cannot happen at the ballot box. It has to be done by the Republican Party. That is the only way to regain any level of trust.

Not sure who is more excited about today’s birthday party at the FIREHOUSE with the REAL fire engine, the 3 year-old or me!

Hegemony is when the dominant state is liked and supported by followers. Empire is when the dominant state acts transactionally, with impunity. There is an important difference and we have elided that difference to our detriment.

For some reason I'm reminded of this. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out."

China has pursued autonomy as it builds its domestic arms industry. Strategy starting to bear fruit in complex areas like jet engines. www.wsj.com/world/china/...

“…Africa is emerging as a key arena in Beijing’s efforts to internationalize the yuan, especially in nations that are heavily indebted to it. Kenya this year converted $$ loans it owed to 🇨🇳 into yuan-denominated debt, Ethiopia began talks to do the same, & 🇿🇲 said it would consider following suit…” 🗺️

ØdeGOD

Ford is doubling down on its partnership with Chinese battery giant CATL to make grid-scale batteries. Could it be the industrial policy solution the US needs to cut reliance on Chinese imports? 🎁 link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

We are at the stage of the energy transition where we have to invent new terms for structurally weak oil prices.

Wonderful piece from Katie Brigham at Heatmap on our new tool—the Clean Industrial Capabilities Explorer. She captures its central motivation so well: we created this tool to help countries understand their manufacturing bases and design more targeted industrial policies.

Wonderful piece from Katie Brigham at Heatmap on our new tool—the Clean Industrial Capabilities Explorer. She captures its central motivation so well: we created this tool to help countries understand their manufacturing bases and design more targeted industrial policies.