easily the most censorial time of my life right now, no one in charge really seems to give a shit though

mystical view from my office, CN tower in background

I haven't seen this movie, but I didn't have high hopes after having read the book. Seva's review, however, is very enjoyable.

A very astute review (I came to expect that from @seva.bsky.social , to be honest)

"There is great art to be made about how Russia, over the past thirty years, has run the Marxist stages of history in reverse from communism to capitalism to feudalism. But this movie isn’t that." @seva.bsky.social hegemon.substack.com/p/my-review-...

how the hell did they make Russian history this boring? my review of THE WIZARD OF THE KREMLIN. On Jude Law's Putin, the worst rave scene since The Matrix Reloaded, and a story that mistakes the Kremlin's self-image for a dissection of it

three years ago today

Really good essay by Alexandra Prokopenko on the transition "from sovereigns to servants" of the 200-300 people in Putin's circle: senior bureaucrats, officers, and CEOs. They have been "optimized for compliance". H/T @seva.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Ooofff.

When I think about the cowardice and incompetence of Russian elites I always think back to the disastrous press conference given by the failed coup-plotters in August 1991. On Alexandra Prokopenko's new paper on the Russian elites. They haven't improved since 1991. new post

The explosions in Moscow remind me of this conversation I had with @seva.bsky.social. Putin always wanted a multipolar world with fewer rules and now that he's getting it, he's coming to realise that Russia isn't strong enough for the jungle and Moscow is getting droned youtu.be/7xtB_MBG75w

the funniest political scientist of all time?

Ad Astra is a funny movie because it’s meant to be this pensive meditation on fatherhood and fate and then throws in moon pirates and a space baboon as random obstacles

it's interesting that many china hawks are sinophiles but the same does not apply to russia

The Joys of Moral Grandstanding; World Cup Geopolitics; Apples in Stereo

four months apart

Forever Wars - they're not just for America anymore. new post

This is outstanding work by @jeremymorris.bsky.social and @seva.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/inert...

Andor is political science.

Great essay by @seva.bsky.social and @jeremymorris.bsky.social about why it will be hard for Putin to end the war without throwing Russia into chaos.

An excellent article from @jeremymorris.bsky.social and @seva.bsky.social on Putin's self-inflicted constraints when it comes to the Ukraine war. Especially important reading for Western policymakers who spend too much time "trying to read Putin's mind." www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/inert...

After more than four years of fighting in Ukraine, “Russia’s economy and society have been reorganized around war,” write @seva.bsky.social and @jeremymorris.bsky.social. In fact, “war has so transformed the economy that it might collapse without it.”

yep. this is a crazy stat, for example:

This is a very good piece, much recommended

Informative look at the Russian war economy as a structural force that disincentivizes peace - from @seva.bsky.social and @jeremymorris.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/inert...

Russian economy and society have been reorganized around war. There are now powerful domestic incentives that make ending the war difficult and even dangerous for Russia’s president. Jeremy Morris @jeremymorris.bsky.social and myself in Foreign Affairs (open access)

I mean that part is obvious I suppose. The more interesting question for me is -- what can AI actually do for theory? And here, new empirical discoveries that force theoretical revision seem the most plausible. That's how democratic peace theory came about, after all!

Wishing OpenAI all the best with "Why is there something rather than nothing?"

polaroid sounds like a slur for antarcticans

no we do not hegemon.substack.com/p/do-we-have...

If social science has no Erdos problems, it also has no Erdos solutions. The same reflexivity that protects us from obsolescence also means we’ll never get the clean answers that mathematics gets. new post

Imagine if a woman president crashed the economy and started a war with no end in sight, and her biggest, seemingly ONLY concern was building a ballroom and redecorating the White House.

i'm in a small german village that's apparently all about pickles? I ordered a beer and they brought it out with pickles and pig lard

The last person to receive civil war survivors benefits died in 2020

assuming a lifespan of 80 years, the length of the entire human civilization is only about 70 people old. The US Civil War was two people ago and the Ottomans sacked Constantinople seven people ago. Not very long!

I've now seen four separate pieces accusing John Burn-Murdoch (Financial Times, you've seen his stuff before) of messing with his data on four separate occasions: 1. isitcredible.com/cases 2. unherd.com/newsroom/the... 3. github.com/James-Traina... 4. blog.albertkuo.me/post/2024-01...

first we must identify the top itinerant amphetamine addict of social science

The paradox of voting? Democratic peace theory? give me a break. nothing even comes close....So I guess we’re safe from obsolescence. Except the drawback is, not having Erdos problems means not having Erdos solutions.

Com a intrusão da IA no trabalho acadêmico, o antigo sistema de produção de artigos e revisão por pares se vê ameaçado. Neste texto, @seva.bsky.social discute os efeitos da ferramenta na divulgação científica e quais cenários podem se apresentar em breve. Leia 👇 www.ufrgs.br/carbono/2026...

What are the Erdos Problems of social science?

“The central technology of autocratic rule is not repression but administration. …Purges, coups, and dramatic confrontations are the exceptions and often symptoms of failure.” I look at some new work on comparative autocracy.

re-upping this in light of the very amusing Granta fiasco

Yes, this. “Besides Graham Allison himself, the biggest beneficiary of the Trap has been...Beijing.“

Tremendously fun piece, well worth a read.

Trump going to China, kissing up to Xi, asking for help with Iran, and not getting it is another sign of America's decline. But that doesn't mean China is about to take over. What's replacing US global leadership is... Nothing. Which is very dangerous. Read my latest, in @liberalcurrents.com:

the "Thucydides Trap" shows how bad history can succeed if it serves a purpose

a few "American" theories have gained truth status in China: "the Thucydides trap" "clash of civilizations" Mearsheimer

A few days ago Xi asked Trump if their countries could overcome the Thucydides Trap. Not since George W. invoked democratic peace theory to justify invading Iraq has an obscure political science concept been put to such productive misuse. new post