This is really very good

Folks interested in arctic sub ops should read Ice Station Zebra, a wonderful Alistair Maclain cold war thriller. Yes, we will need up-pointing sonar, but this is not that dramatic of a tech. It has existed as long as I have been alive.

1/6 The Norwegian services presented their annual unclassified assessments today. Some highlights from Focus 2026 from NIS will follow: "It is in Russia's interest that the Greenland debate causes uncertainty and potential conflict between Europe and the United States."

This is how tonight sounds in Kyiv ⚠️loud explosions. quiet time between explosions is in a way even more unnerving than explosions themselves. how do I know when to film? Because we have reports that detect when missiles are coming. So you are just counting the seconds . very disturbing seconds

Ocean’s Sausage

Take a look at these NATO defence spending figures. Pay special attention to Denmark....

Just dropping by to say that Russia continues attacking us right now .

The Greenland business might currently be overshadowing the war and Russia, but the potential impact of the former, as seen from a small country bordering Russia, can't be underestimated, and is even more serious due to the latter, which it can have a significant impact on as well.

So, if I understand correctly, the US needs to own Greenland because of the threats from new weapons belong to *checks notes* the US, and from Russia and China whose military technology is apparently a bit rubbish. Makes perfect sense.

See also: Canada

Saints and Ladders This remarkable monument at Chillingham (Northumberland, c.1450) tells the story of Sir Ralph and Lady Elizabeth Grey through stone, paint, and symbolism that survives against all odds.

Kyiv, Jan 16: −2°C inside an apartment. Electric heating is off after Russian strikes on the power system. No water, too. This is the capital — and some residents can’t leave. Turning heat into a weapon is what a war on civilians looks like.

The fact that the CAF are in Greenland at the moment with the US as part of a NORAD exercise, while also contemplating joining the Denmark-led NATO exercise, captures Canada's defence dilemma quite well. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...

This is a very good point. The November 2025 US National Security Strategy never mentions the Arctic at all. The idea that it's a genuine security priority for the Trump administration is not credible.

Trump will likely try to make Denmark choose between NATO and Greenland, and wider Europe between Greenland and Ukraine. But luckily Trump has also demonstrated that under his leadership, any US security guarantee won’t be worth much. So the choice should be simple.

I take this back. Trump was clearly deeply impressed by our 5 guys who went to Greenland as he’s now imposing tariffs on us

An idea! To assuage security concerns the US could pay Denmark $150bn for the right to, say, «use [Greenland] in cooperation with Denmark for the defense of Greenland and the rest of the North Atlantic Treaty area, and…construct such facilities and undertake such activities therein ». Seems fair!

I know there’s a lot happening right now , but I wanna ask you to read this post: Russian drones are attacking power station near my city Kyiv right now. It’s -16 here and feels even colder, and Russia is attacking the (almost) the only thing that warms people in this cold and allows them to

"A return to licensed production as opposed to participation in joint programs (like the JSF and beyond) would severely undermine Canada’s defence industrial strategy and our capacity to properly equip the RCAF in both the long- and short-term." macdonaldlaurier.ca/jets-jobs-an...

I know a lot is happening around the world , but this post is your little reminder, that , ~400 apartment buildings in Kyiv still have no heating after Russian attack. And it’s gonna be -15 soon. Some people have already shared how ice forming on the inside of their windows.

Durham Cathedral. There's almost 1000 years of life in those walls - so glad that they decided to make them look vibrant and full of energy.

The US did not declare war against Germany when they went into Poland.

A very happy "fuck you" to John Stallard of Warlord Games, who is worried about "wokeism" killing wargames and thinks women don't play them, possibly because women don't want to hang around twats like John. And how did taking on female wargamers go for the non-"woke" side last time, John?

Kyiv is currently entirely without power and heating after today’s attack. Authorities urged people to leave the city if they can. This is a humanitarian disaster, in case anyone didn’t know

Huzzah! What lovely dulcet tones to enjoy, and this was a tremendously fun conversation

Finnish shipbuilder Rauma Marine Constructions (RMC) announced that it has been awarded a contract by the United States Coast Guard (U.S. Coast Guard) for the construction of two Arctic Security Cutters (ASC) 🇫🇮 🇺🇸 www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

Leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, Denmark, and the European Union issued a joint statement reaffirming that Greenland belongs to its people and any decisions concerning its future must be made solely by Denmark and Greenland.

🇳🇴 Russia Sends Spies Disguised as Tourists to Norway The Norwegian Finnmark Brigade is strengthening its presence along the northern border with Russia in response to rising spy activity and hybrid threats. Read more 👀 theukrainianreview.info/russia-sends...

Not that long, in the grand scheme of things, and very worthwhile.

New at Debating Canadian Defence: open.substack.com/pub/philippe...

This is not a movie, this is my beautiful Odesa right now after Russia bombed it . Tell me more how Russia wants peace I dare you

On my Substack, I wrote up a summary of the last year, whereby I assess the proverbial international climate, look back on various accomplishments, and reflect on the predictions I had made for 2025. open.substack.com/pub/alanoszk...

When you look at people’s homes ruined by Russian attacks , I want you to remember it’s -8 here in Kyiv tonight . and it’s not the coldest part of Ukraine - for Kharkiv it’s -11. What Russia is doing is deliberate attempt to freeze us.

Christmas Eve in Kyiv be like: 🔉⚠️loud siren⚠️ it’s 3:17 am in Kyiv and air raid siren is on because of the threats of Russian drones. I’ve heard the sirens so many times by now and still when it’s this loud I can’t help it I still react

The attacks on our homes are revenge? Was the attack on children’s oncology revenge? Was the attack on a working kindergarten revenge? What was the invasion revenge for, existing?

From a Norwegian perspective, I think the increased cooperation with the UK and France is already underway. This is perhaps most visible with the UK and also formalized with the new agreement, but the French have steadily been more present in recent years, especially in the naval domain.

A longer holiday read on the currently quite messy Arctic security dynamics, courtesy of the US. I hope everyone can get some rest over the holidays, despite everything !

As what Voltaire said of the Holy Roman Empire, the National Security Strategy is neither national, nor secure, nor strategic. Many commentators miss its inconsistencies and how it reflects not only a broken policy process, but also deeper fissures within the Trump admin. thehub.ca/2025/12/19/t...

Despite deteriorating relations and sanctions against two fishing companies, Norway and Russia has signed a Fisheries agreement for 2026. These agreements go back to 1975 and is generally considered a success story in joint fish stocks management. www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...

A minor point in the grand scheme of things, and I know it’s become common use, but I do always find the use of “Armada” (except in literal Spanish naval context) a bit odd. The ‘original’ Armada didn’t go all that well, all things considered.

Our Arctic cups runneth over!

As usual, a prescient and interesting piece from @alanderminna.bsky.social My genuine (if slightly provocative) questions for clever Arctic type folks out there: what role could Canada play? What role should Canada play? We’ll ignore the obvious third question…

Many predicted Russia would hold back in 2022 because they assumed Putin faced real internal limits. His entrenched control told a different story.

Our paper about Russian subversive activities on Svalbard after 2014 is today published by the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE): Download, read and repost 🙌.

Getting ready for the CDSN Symposium, marking the end of our 7 year SSHRC Partnership Grant. We are bringing back our post docs, undergrad excellence scholars, book workshops, and other participants to figure out what we did and what we can learn if we get funded again. So grateful to these two

I may be overdoing it with the optimism, but I think it’s good to have if black on white. Makes it easier for (or forces) European politicians to adjust. Also, the policy spelled out in the strategy to interfere in European affairs for the benefit of the far right hopefully backfires.

There are already, and no doubt will be more, interesting (for better or worse) takes on the US Nat Sec Strategy. This is a great one to start with.

A really cool project that brings together experts from 16 countries making up the Coalition of the Willing. They assess the political resolve and military capacity to send forces—by land, sea, or air—to secure Ukraine’s future. The country briefs are posted here. www.nupi.no/en/projects-...

"Canada has reached a final agreement to join the EU’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe program, two EU diplomats told POLITICO, marking the first time a third country will formally participate in the bloc’s flagship joint procurement initiative." www.politico.eu/article/cana...

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that a Russian victory is not inevitable. The actual pace of the occupying forces’ advance shows that a rapid capture of the entire Donetsk region is unlikely, despite the Kremlin’s claims. understandingwar.org/research/rus...