When you look at people’s homes ruined by Russian attacks , I want you to remember it’s -8 here in Kyiv tonight . and it’s not the coldest part of Ukraine - for Kharkiv it’s -11. What Russia is doing is deliberate attempt to freeze us.

Christmas Eve in Kyiv be like: 🔉⚠️loud siren⚠️ it’s 3:17 am in Kyiv and air raid siren is on because of the threats of Russian drones. I’ve heard the sirens so many times by now and still when it’s this loud I can’t help it I still react

The attacks on our homes are revenge? Was the attack on children’s oncology revenge? Was the attack on a working kindergarten revenge? What was the invasion revenge for, existing?

From a Norwegian perspective, I think the increased cooperation with the UK and France is already underway. This is perhaps most visible with the UK and also formalized with the new agreement, but the French have steadily been more present in recent years, especially in the naval domain.

A longer holiday read on the currently quite messy Arctic security dynamics, courtesy of the US. I hope everyone can get some rest over the holidays, despite everything !

As what Voltaire said of the Holy Roman Empire, the National Security Strategy is neither national, nor secure, nor strategic. Many commentators miss its inconsistencies and how it reflects not only a broken policy process, but also deeper fissures within the Trump admin. thehub.ca/2025/12/19/t...

Despite deteriorating relations and sanctions against two fishing companies, Norway and Russia has signed a Fisheries agreement for 2026. These agreements go back to 1975 and is generally considered a success story in joint fish stocks management. www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...

A minor point in the grand scheme of things, and I know it’s become common use, but I do always find the use of “Armada” (except in literal Spanish naval context) a bit odd. The ‘original’ Armada didn’t go all that well, all things considered.

Our Arctic cups runneth over!

As usual, a prescient and interesting piece from @alanderminna.bsky.social My genuine (if slightly provocative) questions for clever Arctic type folks out there: what role could Canada play? What role should Canada play? We’ll ignore the obvious third question…

Many predicted Russia would hold back in 2022 because they assumed Putin faced real internal limits. His entrenched control told a different story.

Our paper about Russian subversive activities on Svalbard after 2014 is today published by the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE): Download, read and repost 🙌.

Getting ready for the CDSN Symposium, marking the end of our 7 year SSHRC Partnership Grant. We are bringing back our post docs, undergrad excellence scholars, book workshops, and other participants to figure out what we did and what we can learn if we get funded again. So grateful to these two

I may be overdoing it with the optimism, but I think it’s good to have if black on white. Makes it easier for (or forces) European politicians to adjust. Also, the policy spelled out in the strategy to interfere in European affairs for the benefit of the far right hopefully backfires.

There are already, and no doubt will be more, interesting (for better or worse) takes on the US Nat Sec Strategy. This is a great one to start with.

A really cool project that brings together experts from 16 countries making up the Coalition of the Willing. They assess the political resolve and military capacity to send forces—by land, sea, or air—to secure Ukraine’s future. The country briefs are posted here. www.nupi.no/en/projects-...

"Canada has reached a final agreement to join the EU’s €150 billion Security Action for Europe program, two EU diplomats told POLITICO, marking the first time a third country will formally participate in the bloc’s flagship joint procurement initiative." www.politico.eu/article/cana...

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that a Russian victory is not inevitable. The actual pace of the occupying forces’ advance shows that a rapid capture of the entire Donetsk region is unlikely, despite the Kremlin’s claims. understandingwar.org/research/rus...

This won't happen but it would be incredibly funny if the Canadian part of NORAD refused to work on the yearly Santa tracker thing by citing intelligence sharing risks

This latest iteration of the ”peace plan” for Ukraine reeks of a Russian info op - and as such it’s quite successful, even if the plan itself is not serious or implementable. This and an update on military (im)mobility in the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social

It looks like Ukraine will reach the moment it has been fearing but also probably preparing for: the end of US support. Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.

When a Swedish minister gets this sassy, it means that they’re furious. And rightly so. It’s amazing that the small ones have punched so far above their weight, but inexcusable that the bigger ones haven’t followed suit. There simply are capacity limits for the small ones.

Outstanding (albeit deeply dispiriting) thread.

The plan says that "A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States." This implies that both Russia and the Trump administration don't see the US as part of NATO in any real sense. That should deeply alarm every other NATO state.

My International Theory article on non-aggression pacts is finally indexed. Available open-access, I show that the literature to date has coded various international agreements erroneously as non-aggression pacts and missed the unique historical context in which they first emerged. bit.ly/4o8k94W

“To the historically oriented, the fight for the minds of decision-makers and noncombatants does not expand the battlespace, but it does expand or at least challenge long-held Western conceptions about war.” A superb review of cognitive warfare from Frank Hoffman smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...

I'm delighted to be alongside an impressive group of experts, brought together by @congeostrategy.bsky.social, weighing on this question. I write that the term 'cold war' suggests that we are taking Russia and China seriously enough when arguably we are not. www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...

"NATO’s new Alliance Maritime Strategy ... re-centers maritime hard power within collective defense, integrates digital transformation and industrial strength, and reframes the oceans as the decisive arena of strategic competition." www.fpri.org/article/2025...

Yeah so several major Ukrainian cities are in a complete blackout right now. 0 generation from thermal plants and 0 idea when the power will be back. Just please don’t forget us

Yet another example, if any more were needed, of AI getting the simplest things horrendously wrong, and being devastatingly London-centric. Or, in other words, bearing the hallmarks of almost every British government of the last 70 years.

I was going to say something snide about this meaning that the US would now sit on the sidelines for the next two years equivocating over one of the simplest moral decisions in the history of international relations. But given the approach to Ukraine it feels a bit too on the nose

British military planners have travelled to Bodø in the Arctic Circle, to rehearse what it would look like if Russia decided to unleash hostile activity on its doorstep. www.politico.eu/article/brit...

THIS! No fireworks for me this year, but thoroughly looking forward to semi-raw sausages and half-baked potatoes ‘cooked’ on the fire!

Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026 kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-...

In my latest opinion piece for the @thebarentsobserver.com, I ask why we believe that a country not capable of producing a decent microchip on its own can make nuclear-powered weapons systems without triggering major accidents.

OPINION: For Vladimir Putin and his ex-KGB cohort, threatening with the new reactor-powered, nuclear-capable weapons systems brings Soviet nostalgia back onto the table. A look into history can help elucidating today's escalating Russian nuclear brinksmanship.

🇬🇱🇩🇰 Following Donald Trump's statements about his intention to annex Greenland, Denmark has begun strengthening the defenses of the island, which is now seen as a vulnerable target in the face of Russia's growing military activity in the Arctic, - Bloomberg

Your regularly scheduled reminder of one of the pioneering groups of what is now called operations research was a group of teen and twenty something women led by a gamer too ill for sea duty trying to do their part to defend their island home.

St. Aidan’s Church at Bamburgh in Northumberland. The first church was founded by St. Aidan in 635; the current building dates from the C12th to C14th, with the west tower added in the C13th or early C14th. 📸 My own. #SteepleSaturday #StAidans #Bamburgh #Northumberland

Well that will be fun for everyone I’m sure.

New Minuteman III test coming up. I say this a lot about Russian tests but now it must be said about American ones too: Test schedules are planned long in advance and such tests are perfectly normal, unlikely to be related to recent events.

This is a brilliant thread. For those interested in civ-mil relations and those who have never heard the term before, well worth reading to critique(!) a ‘provocative’ article that seems to be doing the rounds

@alanderminna.bsky.social did it so I don’t have to…

Russia is amassing nuclear weapons and attack submarines in the Arctic Circle as it prepares for war with Nato,Norway’s defence minister has warned,the Telegraph reports. ▪️"Russia is building up on the Kola peninsula ...where one of the largest arsenals of nuclear warheads in the world is located.⤵️

@podonthetyne.bsky.social Looks like Everton have released their new Goalkeeper kits for next season…

“Russia is protecting its nuclear submarines in the Arctic with an undersea surveillance system built using high-tech equipment acquired from U.S. & European companies through a secret procurement network, according to newly uncovered financial records, court documents & Western security officials.”

Russia is fitting its UMPB-5R glide bombs with Chinese SW800Pro-Y turbojet engines, increasing their strike range to around 130 km. Photos confirm the engine's use in recent attacks on Poltava and Lozova. The upgrade allows Russian aircraft to launch from beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defenses.

The German company that makes the mechanical ladder used in the Louvre heist has used the image to advertise, with the text 'When you need to move fast' 10/10 response, no notes

Woohoo! This will be great! Best film ever made, by a country mile, really looking forward to reading about the background. Remember reading a short book about the filming a while back, but a look back at it by @spitfirefilly.bsky.social is even more exciting.

Nelson's Victory crew included a Brazilian and a Russian, 2 Indians, 2 Swiss, 2 Portuguese, 3 Danes and 3 Norwegian sailors. There were 3 Germans, 4 Italians, 6 Swedes, 7 Dutchmen, 9 West Indians and an African, as well as 21 Americans, 63 Irish, 64 Scots, 441 English.... oh, and 3 French men, too.