When I recorded this, I was mostly thinking about Russia, China and Iran but I guess going forward, these weapons will be used against us because we oppose an invasion of Denmark or whatever. If you'd like to know what's coming our way, take a look: youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY

This is a perfect loop. Trump threatens American allies and when they inevitably react, their reactions are used to justify Trump's original threats. As a result, Trump can never be wrong and it's always someone else's fault

#Greenland is a red line Europe cannot afford to back down @marceldirsus.com thehundred.substack.com/p/greenland-...

Deutsche Bank here with the good stuff. Game on.

The year is 2035. Does Germany have nuclear weapons?

Here is only at first paradoxical reaction I believe we will see more of - AfD member of the Bundestag Kay Gottschalk argues the US tariffs over Greendland call for more European sovereignty, a European military alliance, a German nuke and ends his video with the slogan "Long live Europe".

Marcel is right, of course. 2026 is already shaping up to be the year of »deutsche Bombe«-headlines.

Do you want Germany to get nuclear weapons? Because not now, but eventually, this is how you get a nuclear-armed Germany

If Washington keeps going down this path, Europeans will become (a) more hostile towards America and (b) more friendly towards China. And as a bonus, European middle powers will develop nuclear weapons

It's just amazing to me that Americans thought this is the guy that should decide who gets nuked. Over 300 million people and they picked Donald Trump

The best option is to slow walk the whole crazy thing

This is a red line. If we let the United States force Denmark to give up territory by threatening an invasion, we're done. There are no good options here, but we have to stand with Denmark

If you want an hour of solid analysis on Iran, from the domestic dynamics to the regional / geopolitical implications — I highly recommend our discussion with John Ghazvinian and @kschake.bsky.social. It was fantastic and I learned a ton. 🔗 Full talk: bit.ly/newsdesk-iran2026

What we should do is this: Next time someone in Brussels starts writing a tweet about being concerned or monitoring the situation or whatever, that person assembles a drone instead. In about six months, we will be ready to fight Russia and China and America all at once

At least half of Europe's foreign policy problems could be solved by simply having more tanks and soldiers and missiles

The biggest threat to the territorial integrity of Denmark, a NATO ally, is the United States of America. Not Russia, not China, but Trump's America

It's completely insane that things have come this far

@marceldirsus.com is publishing episodes faster than I can listen to them, but this one is recommend also in the light of recent doubts around reliability of transatlantic relations.

Can't wait for the CIA to get involved in European elections to support the far-right. It'll be great

I bet the members of the Nobel Committee feel really bad about not granting the Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump. Nobody loves peace more than the guy threatening to invade Denmark

"Moscow is providing the military equipment and internet technology that Tehran is deploying against protesters." foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/14/i...

We're two weeks into 2026 and Europeans are deploying a tripwire force to discourage an American invasion of Denmark by forcing Trump to kill allied soldiers from multiple nations to conquer Greenland

"In some countries, people are starting to draw up plans for what happens in a nightmare scenario where Russia attacks NATO and the Americans don't come to our support." youtu.be/BLaBJtoc01U

You know what's cool? Books

If Trump is going to intervene, this seems like the most effective angle he could take to help protestors (short of an actual invasion). Do everything you can to maximise the likelihood that security forces either (a) switch sides or (b) refuse orders

We have a new episode! Oliver Moody (The Times) talks to me about things we can learn from the Baltic states, Russian hybrid warfare and a whole lot more. As usual, you can listen to it on Spotify, Apple and all the other places. Here's a link to YouTube: youtu.be/BLaBJtoc01U?...

In this episode of "The Next Best" by @marceldirsus.com, there's a brief episode when @edwardfishman.bsky.social talks about the fear of the US to be "oversuccessful" with sanctions on Russia when Putin started his full invasion in 2022. Main concerns were economic fallout and fear of Putin using a

"Prosecutors have asked for South Korea's former president Yoon Suk Yeol to be handed a death sentence if he is found guilty over his botched attempt to impose martial law." www.bbc.com/news/article...

Just uploaded episode #7 of the podcast and I can report that we're reaching unprecedented levels of clickbait over on YouTube

I wrote on the Iranian regime's effort to impose a digital blackout to cover up the scale of its repression. News still getting out, but less than before. Starlink hard to jam, but jamming GPS can disrupt Starlink ground terminals. No magic cyber solution. www.economist.com/middle-east-...

My God these Iranians are brave. They know they might get killed and they go out and protest anyway

🧵on how dictators try to prevent being toppled … and how toppling can happen

I'm not an economist. Is it a good idea for the president to try to destroy the independence of the central bank? Thank you for your attention to this matter

If you seriously think that the CIA can recruit hundreds of thousands of Iranians to risk their lives by protesting against the regime, I'd urge you to read a book about the actual CIA. They can do a lot, but they just aren't that powerful

This is a great thread about the dynamics, structures and incentives within dictatorial regimes when faced with mass protest. Applies to lots of regimes not just Iran.

I don't know what will happen in Iran, but these moments, when dictatorships are facing their own people in the streets, are all about breaking the other side first.

Dictatorships are "stable" until they aren't

My one prediction for 2026 is that Germany's annual nuke debate is going to be extra insane this year

"So I had to go to places like Singapore and Malaysia and effectively threaten shipping companies and energy companies and banks with sanctions unless they cut ties with Iran. And I'll tell you, that that is a very awkward conversation to have as an American official." youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY

I went to Tommy's Diner in Columbus, Ohio to talk to real Americans. What they want more than anything else is war with Denmark

U.S. to Control Venezuela Oil Sales ‘Indefinitely,’ Energy Secretary Says www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/b...

Money makes the world go round and there's almost no big problem in international relations that doesn't involve economic warfare of some kind. This week in the podcast, I talk to New York Times bestselling author Edward Fishman to find out how it all works. Watch below: youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY?...

"There is no sign that the United States’ demands include less repression. Instead the regime is taking the opportunity to crack down." www.economist.com/the-americas...

The main aim should be to deter Trump by raising the prospective domestic political price by increasing the likelihood that (some) Republicans break ranks. Trump shouldn't be able to take over Greenland without killing Danes and Brits and Germans

This is where Europe has to draw a red line. No flattery, no vague language. We cannot prevent Trump from taking Greenland by force but if he does, he needs to pay a steep price

Trump rolls some dice once a week and whatever he lands on instantly becomes the most important thing in the world for tens of millions of people. We MUST bomb Nigeria! If we don't get Greenland we can NEVER be safe again! APOCALYPSE! HELL! DEATH!

some people love quoting "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." That was Athens saying that at the height of its empire. Few of those people seem to remember what happened to Athens the very next year.

Let's be real: Trump is not going to war with Russia over Estonia, Finland or Romania. If Putin attacks, we're on our own