At a minimum, this should open up the spigots of US support to Ukraine so Russia loses the war it caused.

After a harsh winter, spring finally seems to be taking hold for the Ukrainian electricity system. greendealukraina.org/gd-tracker/s...

Can't wait to read the inevitable Telegraph column about this: WE didn't endure THE BLITZ to CAPITULATE to Germans for some DEUTSCHE MARK! Churchill would be turning in his grave! Something about the UNION JACK, football, European dictatorship! The Queen.

Confirmed, but not yet scheduled: Tracking down Assad's henchmen, the threat of German re-armament, nuclear proliferation and the logic of deterrence, Chinese control over critical minerals. Also, a thousand more ideas for guests. We're not going to run out of things to discuss anytime soon

No podcast this week! Sorry, I have to finish this book proposal. But the next three guests are already scheduled, so we'll be back soon. Topics: NATO-Russia War, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump's popularity. Or lack thereof, rather. 🙏

Are any of Iran's neighbours not angry at Tehran? Or have they actually succeeded at annoying literally everyone

Please enable polls @bsky.app. We need the wisdom of the crowds

I see Putin is once again threatening us with a good time. Do it! Cut the gas. The sooner we stop sending money to Moscow the better

Genuinely asking: If you're Tehran and the biggest threat is war with the United States, why build these huge expensive ships? Why not take that money and buy 1,000 boats to at least wreak havoc in the Strait of Hormuz? They must have some reason. What is it?

Are we 100% sure the regime itself actually wants the regime to survive? This seems idiotic

Wow: "A submarine attack on an Iranian ship off the coast of Sri Lanka has left at least ​101 people missing, one dead and 78 injured, sources ‌in Sri Lanka's navy and defence ministry told Reuters on Wednesday." www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

This also demonstrates why it'll be incredibly difficult for Europeans to ever agree on foreign policy. The world doesn't look the same from Berlin as it does from Madrid and it never will. For starters, there's simply no credible military threat to Spain or any of its neighbours

good thread. Too much of European diplomacy is viewed through the prism of American politics.

Seen a lot of commentary on Merz' visit to Washington and in my opinion, much of it misses the mark. Germany isn't going to war against Iran and Merz certainly isn't pro-Trump

To be fair to Trump, throwing Kurds under the bus is a time-honoured American tradition

We have our answer: It's the Kurds

Makes you wonder what it's like for Iranian leaders to realise that they're only alive because the Israelis haven't decided to kill them just yet

The French singing La Marseillaise in a nuclear submarine base is deeply symbolic. France built its own independent nuclear deterrent after WWII to never again have to suffer a similar humiliation. Now France is offering to ”advance” that deterrent to other European countries.

Spare a thought for Ursula von der Leyen. If she says anything during a geopolitical crisis, she is immediately accused of over-stepping her mandate and gets criticised. If she says nothing she is accused of being missing-in-action and of the EU not having a clue what's going on. Just can't win!

As the laid off Middle East News Editor, I concur. Management eliminated the positions of every single staff correspondent and bureau chief in the Middle East.

Probably safe to assume that some CIA guy is currently in Iran, ferrying Kalashnikovs to separatists I've never heard of. Can someone who knows more about Iran tell me which groups could be armed from the outside?

Imagine being one of the CIA or Mossad guys in Iran right now. I'm at my desk drinking coffee while they're spending their Tuesday ferrying Kalashnikovs to separatists or whatever. The world is weird

Elizabeth N. Saunders, author of "The Insider's Game: How Elites Make War & Peace", offers a fascinating explanation of the power dynamic between the U.S. military, Congress, and the executive branch. Very helpful towards understanding, in as much as anyone can, recent U.S. military actions abroad.

Sooner or later, every middle power on earth will conclude that they need nuclear weapons

This is a very narrow operation! It's about nukes. And missiles. But really it's about Iranian proxies. And regime change, Iranians should flood the streets right now. This is a very narrow operation! It's about nukes. And missiles. But really it's about Iranian proxies. And regime change...

This is great stuff. Dives deeper into stone thoughts I've had for a while: Russia is weakening itself on strategic, long-lasting levels. However, that does not mean that it gets less dangerous. Quite the opposite, I'm afraid.

Total American jets shot down during the Iran War (2026), by country Iran: 0 Kuwait: 3

I've said it before and I'll say it again: After years of making fun of Germany, we're at risk of underestimating the change in Berlin. Zeitenwende is real

Here's your regular reminder that you don't have to defend the Iranian dictatorship to oppose the war. Multiple things can be true at once

This mirrors my thinking, which has been going back and forth between scenarios of catastrophic success, catastrophic failure and Trump's dumb luck since Saturday morning.

Putin finally got the multipolar world he always wanted and it's absolutely terrible for him. With all the guardrails gone, actual great powers are doing whatever the hell they want while Russia is stuck in eastern Ukraine. New podcast out now: youtu.be/7xtB_MBG75w

If you combine the inherent uncertainty of war with Trump, I think literally anything is possible now. We may see a revolution in Iran after weeks of bombing. Perhaps Trump declares "victory" within the hour. We might even see a Gulf monarchy collapse somehow

"One of the things that often brings down great powers is this belief that they can do anything, that limits don't apply to them... the belief that we know how to do it better than everybody else."

Putin Caused Everything He Tried to Prevent

New podcast with @seva.bsky.social out now: Putin is getting the multipolar world he always wanted. But now that he's got it, he'll hate it. Watch below: youtu.be/7xtB_MBG75w

I think we have a winner

If this is a bluff it's a good one. Sure looks like America is about to go to war against Iran

Alright, I tried serious thumbnails but I think it's time to switch to sad Putin and explosions to get people through the door. It's just how YouTube works I guess. It'll be cringe but it is what it is. Putin sad let's go

Anthropic says that mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons remain the two sticking points with DoD. In turn, DoD says it has no intention of doing either, but appears to refuse to accept restrictions on use. www.anthropic.com/news/stateme...

As discussed last week: Trump loves bombing and special forces, but he doesn't want casualties

Everyone should order this. I'm confident it'll be great

I've been spending more time on YouTube to figure out how it all works and I have to say most of the politics on there is insane. UKRAINE IS DOOMED! MISSILES! ECONOMIC COLLAPSE! WORLD WAR III IS INEVITABLE!!!!

Is there any rich democracy in which boring centrist political parties are actually doing well?

The purge continues of senior Chinese military officials, as nine generals of varying ranks are removed from delegate lists for the Two Sessions meetings starting next week. www.news.cn/20260226/822...

My favourite example of this is Germany's Foreign Office telling the United States to abolish the death penalty. It's like, okay? It's cool for politicians to talk about on the evening news, but that's it. There's a 0% chance of success and diplomats have 100,000 more urgent things to deal with

Okay but does anyone actually think that the Chinese government will improve its human rights record if German politicians tell them to? Merz can mention it or not mention it, it won't make a material difference. I'm not even sure it really raises the cost of repression

This is a good newsletter

"According to CSIS estimates, Russian forces suffered nearly 1.2 million battlefield casualties, which includes killed, wounded, and missing, between February 2022 and December 2025."

This was inevitable: As the United States becomes less reliable under Trump, American allies will improve ties with Beijing to hedge

I do find it striking as well how much 2003 was still undermining trust in 🇺🇸 / 🇬🇧 intelligence. Political & military alliances are about trust, and this was way before Trump. PS: and yes, 🇫🇷& 🇩🇪 were obviously sleeping walking, same as the 🇺🇦 administration.