So on the plus side, all this may end up accelerating the transition to renewable energy. Right?

One potential explanation: Treasury demanded the UAE quit OPEC+ in return for getting access to a USD swap line. If that's correct, this would represent the supremacy of the petrodollar dynamic, not an ebbing.

Uh, this is kinda wild *UAE DECIDES TO EXIT OPEC, OPEC+ STARTING MAY 1: WAM

The latest poll from Germany has the far-right AfD at 27%. Centre-right CDU/CSU 22%, Greens 15%. The governing Social Democrats (SPD) are at 12% (!), tied with the Left Party.

Authoritarianism as a service

Kpler said it has not observed any tankers successfully evading the US naval blockade in the region around the the Strait of Hormuz. Loadings of Iranian crude onto tankers have plunged by roughly 70% since the US blockade took hold, the researchers noted.-Bloomberg

All episodes were great except one but I won’t tell you which, you gotta find out yourself 🫠 Joking, they were all great and instructive, Marcel is a must-hear or must-see, even better do both, he will appreciate it😂

The Cold War was so wild

Interesting to listen to the discussion about self-determination with Northern Ireland in mind. Also about what might happen when rising sea levels erase the physical existence of island states. Spotify link: open.spotify.com/episode/3jjY...

Oil giant BP announces huge rise in profits in first results since Iran war

A plant to recycle and produce rare earth magnets opened in Germany today in Pforzheim, Germany. Has an initial capacity of 100 tonnes a year, aiming to rise to 750 tonnes capacity by 2028 Current EU demand is 20,000 tonnes p/a, so now it can produce 0.5% rising to 3.75%

Kallas speaking after EU-ASEAN ministerial - a struggle convincing Asian partners not to buy Russian oil these days "There is an energy crisis right now and unfortunately, this energy crisis is benefiting Russia... oil revenues are what Russia is using to fund this war."

I’ve little doubt that two more months of closure would do lasting damage to the Iranian economy. I’ve even less doubt it would do awful damage to the wider global economy. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/u...

Next two guests confirmed! Anything you guys would like to know about (the defence of) Taiwan or the Houthis/Yemen?

Don’t blame the messenger!

that's a veeeery apt description of Austria's religious belief in being protected by its neutrality

I'm sorry, the US situation is still not remotely comparable to the Chinese one, as evidenced by the thousands of academics publishing criticism of the government online under their real names.

My Charlemagne this week is The Road to Economic Serfdom, or how EU red tape worsened its dependency on America. Part of the reason we Europeans rely on Google, Visa etc is because they have no local equivalent. And that's in part due to the EU's regulatory zeal. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

Can someone explain to me how this happens? Did they let them pass deliberately? If not, how can an oil tanker outrun the strongest military in the world? I'm aware the sea is a big place but they've got attack helicopters and drones and missile destroyers so how exactly does this work?

Hot off the printing press!! Nach Monaten harter Arbeit ist mein Buch „Krieg zu Hause“ endlich erschienen und im Buchhandel erhältlich. Ich will mit diesem Buch zeigen, warum Krieg immer wieder in unsere Städte zurückkehrt - ausgerechnet an die Orte, an denen wir leben, lieben und zu Hause sind.

"Why don't the Ukrainians just do a deal, give up eastern Ukraine?"

I don't see it happening, but it would be quite something for Trump to accept the latest Iranian proposal. Before the war Hormuz was open and they were negotiating about nukes. If he accepts Hormuz will be "open" but nuclear negotiations will be "postponed" whatever that may mean

💥Orbán heads to the US in June, where family members already live, while loyalists seek MAGA think-tank jobs and visas after the election defeat. Meanwhile, oligarchs & cronies are shifting wealth abroad, largely to the Middle East. @floragaramvolgyi.bsky.social's story quoting @vsquare.bsky.social

They're going to start bombing again, aren't they?

We're witnessing the destruction of the global economy and there's just no end in sight. Tehran isn't budging and by the looks of it, Trump can't even end it through surrender. Markets, meanwhile, seem to think everything is perfectly fine. The whole thing is madness

Probably fair to say the podcast workflow could still be improved a little because I just realised I forgot to upload this episode to Spotify/Apple on Friday. I'll do that tomorrow, I guess

@jameskerlindsay.bsky.social and @marceldirsus.com about sovereign states, why great powers today dislike the concept and where international law lacks answers to questions on sovereignty

Two of my favorite analysts @hoanssolo.bsky.social and @marceldirsus.com about Ukraine and is Russia winning the war

It illustrates how Trump is continuing to damage and undermine NATO, Putin will be pleased.

🚨 We have a new video! I sat down with @jameskerlindsay.bsky.social to talk about the emergence of the modern state, Russia and the future of world politics. Watch the full conversation below: youtu.be/CMmKxN97jGM

“Since the start of 2025, the defense ministry approved some 40 new robots; by the end of last year, some 15,000 were supplied to the army, Fedirko said. In November, 67 units were using them; by March that had jumped to 167.” www.politico.eu/article/insi...

China accounts for roughly one-third of global clean-tech investments • Chinese firms invest 2.5 times more than their American and European counterparts - combined • China now produces 97% of solar wafers, as well as 95% of battery anodes and cells www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

billionaire: we need radical solutions for Earth Day. Think bold. Biofuels. Space mirrors. Plankton fertilization. advisor: what about a 2% wealth tax? billionaire: …Cloud seeding. Turbine farms in the Sahara. A Dyson sphere.

Wow!

What I learned today: Panama Canal auctions some (30%) slots to ships. Due to blockage of Hormuz, Asian buyers seeking western crude push bids five times greater than pre-conflict level. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Doing some prep to talk about the Arab Spring in the intro to global politics undergrad class. Sometimes it's really helpful to make a graph, I find.

There has been a total collapse of trust in anything that comes out of this Pentagon. They have lied freely, frequently and without shame. It means that on serious matters - like civilian casualty disputes or US casualty figures - no-one can trust what they say.

I still don't really understand why people dislike Starmer this much. He's a bit boring, sure. But is he really that bad? The last poll I saw said the next Prime Minister could be Nigel Farage. That seems...a lot worse

I agree 👇

"It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines deployed by the Iranian military, and any such operation is unlikely to be carried out until the U.S. war with Iran ends, the Pentagon has informed Congress" This is my shocked face

"It would be really bad if they don't work out this Hormuz thing, so they'll figure it out some way" is still the prevailing attitude. Can see it in markets, media, politicians, public. Bad can't happen, people in charge know what they're doing, it's all content anyway. I find it... unsettling.

Grim but useful read. Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster economist.com/finance-and-...

The Revolutionary Guards have guns and the Foreign Ministry does not, so I'll go ahead and guess the diplomats won't win out here

In terms of quality of content vs viewer/listener numbers, Marcel Dirsus’s YouTube channel (and podcast—my preferred medium for it) is IMO the most underrated content out there. Definitely check it out. This was a terrific discussion.

Enjoyed going on Marcel's new pod to talk about how China has changed under Xi Jinping, and what the coming years might look like as he ages.

An excellent examination of the state of play in Ukraine from @hoanssolo.bsky.social and @marceldirsus.com I learned a lot. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

"We're going to stay here till hell freezes over. We've learned to deal with the drones. We've learned to deal with the missiles. We've learned to deal with so much death. And we are still here."

🚨 New video out now! @hoanssolo.bsky.social talks to me about frontline reality in Ukraine, Iran and the future of warfare. It's not exactly cheerful, but super interesting. Watch the full conversation below: youtu.be/Cnuhbov9-xM

I'm starting to think Trump may have lied when he said they totally destroyed Iran's military