I think markets wanted a nice mission accomplished, we'll wind down and unilaterally TACO like the leaks weve been hearing Instead nothing happened, and its really hard to look through the strait being closed without a timeline

i think im pretty confident we wont learn anything from the announcement

Brent not loving this

Artemis II was a nice 3-4 hours and we should do it more often

MAGNITUDE 7.8 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES TERNATE, INDONESIA REGION - USGS

This quote is from NYT (i havent looked) but like yes of course

Ngl, I’m kinda surprised they managed to sneak a Canuck onto Artemis II

The US is going to set a tariff on finished steel and aluminum products at 25% - WSJ.

Two Iranian officials said Kharazi had been overseeing engagement with Pakistan for a possible meeting between Iranian officials and Vice President JD Vance. The officials said the targeting of Kharazi is being viewed as an attempt to derail diplomacy.-NYT

if you want some hate reading www.politico.com/news/2026/04...

Bloomberg scoop: Chinese EVs could be built in the Stellantis plant in Brampton, where a planned Jeep production line was cancelled last year and moved to the US. Stellantis has discussed with Canadian officials the idea of building Leapmotor EVs there www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

i think im pretty confident we wont learn anything from the announcement

Putting up the @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social bat signal for this one *STELLANTIS IN TALKS TO MAKE CHINESE EVS AT IDLED CANADIAN PLANT

large May 45-70 VIX call spread went though at 11:30. accounts for over 22% of all VIX call activity so far today

👀 👀 as.ft.com/r/20b7066e-0...

Cool story about how scrambled petroleum trade has gotten.

Like what does this mean

Just for clarity, this untrue in basically the western hemisphere. And also the Canadian Supreme Court ruled here it’s not just birthright but also lineage, so there’s possibly hundreds of thousands of Canadians in waiting globally.

US Trade Representative cites Canada's emerging "Sovereign Cloud Initiative" in report on "Foreign Trade Barriers"

havent seen a source for this, but i think that puts us beyond the previous 4-6 week timeline

Honestly thought libraries were supposed to have books in them. I feel like such a dunce. www.ft.com/content/610e...

This is awkward for a lot of reasons but also that many tribes span the US and Canada so domicile is kind of an issue

Theres this and another report Vance was saying "Iranian infrastructure would be hit if they dont make a deal" I just dont see why IRGC would care given that the regime seems mostly together?

Anthropic is mogging giga-chad Anthropic in the value-maxxing secondary markets.

Okay last post for this morning unless things completely unravel, i am still not sure exactly what to make of the physical market problems atm, like even at say a 60% run rate, refineries probably start going cold in 1-2 months, and its not clear production and shipping can make that work

Its funny this is precisely the opposite of what the deal was yesterday and no one cares. Including the ceasefire talk which i could maybe see but idk

sigh

I think the most optimistic scenario ive heard people float is that the US leaves and hormuz gets to something like 50% in a few months. Which seems still pretty bad but maybe between all the diversions its enough?

Im trying to remember what the big announcement was during tariffs with canada mexico was that was a disappointment instead of liberation day

Hes doing this while also running NATO rumours

Here we go lads

TACO Wednesday or $5/gallon rant? Tune in to find out!

@roryjohnston.bsky.social 's podcast has some geopolitical analysis on "what if the US just leaves?"

Who do i root for so Canada has shot to make it out of the pool

so like whats the deal here

This is either brilliant or scary: Anthropic accidentally leaked the TS source code of Claude Code (which is closed source). Repos sharing the source are taken down with DMCA. BUT this repo rewrote the code using Python, and so it violates no copyright & cannot be taken down!

Obviously this cant be used to predict president grandpa's actions, but i think Haqqani is how you would ferry guys to Qeshm

Market rallying on this but: a) its impossible b) theyve said this before

there's a tweet somewhere about Iran saying ready to end the war

Americans, this is going to sound like a meme, but please get the Dems to explicitly announce that Alberta will not get any deal from the US should they seperate and/or be annexed

“Alberta Prosperity Project CEO Mitch Sylvestre confirmed Tuesday morning that the citizen initiative petition for an Alberta independence referendum has surpassed the 177,732 signatures required” #abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli www.culturealberta.com/articles/alb...

Well rip to the UK navy on convoy duty for the next little bit

Taking off some oil calls today just in case we get absolutely wiped for headline reasons. I think if the US does withdraw the market will be relieved for a little bit and then will realize the mess that needs to be sorted

Really interesting coverage on the bartering happening with refined products in asia www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Israel prepared to keep striking Iran for 'weeks to come', military spokesperson says.-Reuters

“.. Bankruptcies across the freight transportation and logistics sector continued to mount in March, with trucking companies, logistics providers, last-mile delivery firms and marine operators filing for Chapter 11 protection ..” @scottlincicome.bsky.social www.freightwaves.com/news/freight...

on the bright side, hopefully theyll get some oil and oil products to africa soon

I suppose its bullish that the president, at this and only this moment, decided he cant do land war due to scheduling. But i do think that underrates how messy re-opening will be if its not a US-Iran diplomatic solution

I for one am not in the habit of suggesting the British go to faraway places to take natural resources.