5% of global LNG production. Between this, the strait, and the russia stuff. It almost feels like a message from the divine

I have genuinely 0 idea why CF can be +3% and NTR be -3% It feels like they are a very similar trade

Oil big down on this lmao

He was supposed to bomb power plants today so idk

Gotta imagine this extends to closure even longer

Anyone got good analysis on the Naptha shortage in Japan? I think we're expecting pretty dramatic shutdowns if things dont open soon

Synthetic rubber feedstock up 40% since late Feb. No worries. You don't need tires if you can't afford to buy gasoline. <guy tapping head meme>

It seems unlikely this will succeed when everyone needs american oil, but still. Good stuff

Obviously no one knows what hes talking about but i think we got 8ish on the 24th-25th and 2 recently

One of the reasons to have academics is that they'll tell you what data you need, which is how i learned its reasonably hard to tell how many days of consumption cover Australia has

I know its stupid to ask, but does anyone understand what "4-6 week timeline" means

I think Dario is making the point that the market reactions can be extremely different and the market can look through lot. but it really does look a lot more like Iraq invading Kuwait atm

Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Thursday he had spoken to the leaders of Iran, Egypt, Turkey and other regional countries and said Malaysian vessels were now being allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.-Reuters

I can only apologize for my country's posters. being between the US and UK culturally means some stuff slips through

Bidding war: 11 LNG tankers originally bound for Europe have been diverted to Asia since March 3 , according to data provider Kpler. www.wsj.com/finance/comm...

Just one more bombing campaign bro. Just one more. And then maybe some troops. That’s all we need, then it’ll definitely be over and we won’t be back with more troops and more bombing a week later.

Whoever wished for plastic straws to go away, congratulations

It’s so hard to square these two things together lol

I cant wait till im can focus on other things www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

Just an absolute banger here from @weisenthal.bsky.social

6 regional sources is really interesting

we've had SPVs, we've had multi-layered SPVs, now get ready for Schrödinger's SPVs

so is he negotiating?

Nobly creating liquidity for the #$USO degens by buying puts for next week on the off chance everything is cool (sold my longer term puts because i think we are at the point where the price will just be high for a bit)

Exclusive: US links security guarantees to Ukraine giving up Donbas, Zelenskiy says - www.reuters.com/business/aer...

“In the U.S., farmers are reporting empty shop shelves, with the country about 25% short of fertiliser supplies for this time ​of year.” www.reuters.com/business/ene...

So, uh, this February import price data was pretty wild

so the "gift" was letting some random tankers through the strait times of israel says, according to an arab diplomat and a US official. I think this is somewhat at odds with other reporting we got on the new toll system.

Im sympathetic, i am long oil after all, but i think its important to remember that the people in the most danger are those closest to the gulf, and they are in active negotiations to get oil past, so for the moment they arent panic buying They also arent super rich which is a difference vs europe

This is pretty interesting

“Iran is developing a new vetting and registration system for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz as it transitions to a ‘selective’ blockade of the strategic waterway, according to Lloyd’s List.” www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/...

We'll need to wait to see exports to see what the full damage is

Underdiscussed that the two biggest issues in the US right now are Iran war, and airport wait times. Its almost art to see like CNN's homepage

*IRAN’S BUSHEHR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT STRUCK AGAIN: PRESS TV

Key chart: top is breakeven price to operate existing wells, bottom is breakeven price to drill new wells. But ~half of E&P firms with recent horizontal well activity are not expecting increased production as a result of the recent oil price increase.

i kind of think if this situation was handed to a normal administration theyd go in ground invasion for sure

This is even worse than you think because China wants to do this with the Taiwan Strait which would give them control over a lot more of the global economy than SoH. This will give them a precedent.

Iran's five demands >> "The official outlined demands, including a halt to attacks and assassinations, guarantees against future conflict, payment of war damages, an end to fighting across all fronts involving allied groups, and recognition of Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz."

So what they want clearly from all this stuff is: - end attacks as precondition for talks - reparations (i still think this might mean a toll per boat for some given amount of time) - Guarantees against future attack (i dont know what this is) - keep the nuclear and ballistic missile program

3 Iraqi Energy Officials: Iraq's oil output from southern oilfields falls about 80% to around 800k BPD.

???

This always seemed like the most likely outcome. Surprised people took the other stuff as seriously

We are reaching levels of bullshit not thought possible

“Each day since the start of the war in Iran, U.S. military officials compile a video update for President Donald Trump that shows video of the biggest, most successful strikes on Iranian targets over the previous 48 hours.” War for the spectacle. www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...

So I think many of us think: -its unlikely iran accepts any proposed deal or ceasefire at this point -its looking like the US wants to take some land -its looking like Iran wants to toll cargo What does that mean for oil/fertilizer/lng/ regular cargo?

this is also a reason for oil to be down

Market for crude out of Oman (light/sour) is taking the ceasefire prospects *very* seriously.

Bare minimum ask lmao