The latest model shows an explosion of seats for the Liberals in the last few weeks, with this week in particular showing a noticeable jump Full model article will be available tomorrow morning at 7:30AM ET Here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/liberals-s...

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 40% (-4) CPC: 38% (-3) NDP: 10% (+4) BQ: 7% (+1) GPC: 3% (+2) Others: 2% Innovative / Feb 2, 2026 / n=1305 / Online (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

"Did Carney's speech make you think of him more or less favourably?" 🟢 Much More Favourably: 54% 🟢 Somewhat More Favourably: 22% ⚫️ Somewhat Less Favourably: 4% ⚫️ Much Less Favourably: 18% Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/a-prime-mi...

Carney's Net-Approval Among The Oldest Canadians: 🟢 Liaison: +41% 🟢 Leger: +34% 🟢 Abacus: +34% 🟢 Angus Reid: +32% Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/a-prime-mi...

Leader Net-Favourables: Carney: +21% Blanchet (QC): +6% Davies: -4% Poilievre: -6% Innovative / Feb 2, 2026

Among those who saw/heard Carney's Davos speech Innovative finds 60% of Canadians view Carney and the federal government more favourably because of the speech Similarly, Pollara finds 59% saying the speech made them more favourable towards Carney, including 30% of Conservatives

"Do you support or oppose the recent Canadian trade deal with China that reduces tariffs on canola oil and allows Chinese electric cars into the Canadian market?" 🟢 Support: 67% 🔴 Oppose: 28% - Mainstreet - Read more for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Carney's Net-Approval Among Young Canadians: 🟢 Abacus: +32% 🟢 Angus Reid: +30% 🟢 Leger: +27% 🟢 Liaison: +19% Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/a-prime-mi...

Alberta - "Are things in Alberta going in the right or wrong direction?" Wrong direction: 59% Right direction: 34% Leger / Jan 26, 2026

British Columbia - "Are things in BC going in the right or wrong direction?" Wrong direction: 54% Right direction: 37% Leger / Jan 26, 2026

"If an MP decides to change parties, they should..." Resign and run in a by-election: 33% Be allowed to do so: 32% Sit as an independent until the next election: 31% Nanos / Dec 29, 2025 - (Released Today)

"Do you think Canada is going in the right or wrong direction?" Right direction: 54% Wrong direction: 35% Mainstreet / Feb 2, 2026

"Do you think the number of legal immigrants who are allowed to relocate in Canada should..." 🔴 Decrease: 42% 🟡 Remain The Same: 35% 🟢 Increase: 13% Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Net-Approval Of Mark Carney: 🟢 Liaison: +31% 🟢 Mainstreet: +31% 🟢 Angus Reid: +26% 🟢 Leger: +25% 🟢 Abacus: +23% Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Say what you want about Mark Carney, but all the polls as of late suggest Canadians broadly approve of him With his climbing approvals, the situation in the vote intention is also getting better for the Liberals Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Polling Average In Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 🔵 CPC: 48% ⬆️ 🔴 LPC: 35% ⏸️ 🟠 NDP: 12% ⏸️ 🟢 GPC: 1% ⬇️

(Models Available To Subscribers) British Columbia Provincial Polling: NDP: 44% (-1) CON: 38% (-6) GRN: 9% (+1) ONE: 6% (New) Others: 3% Leger / Jan 26, 2026 / n=819 / Online (% Change With 2024 Election) Check out BC details on @338canada.bsky.social here: 338canada.com/bc/

A quick average of Albertan Independence polls since December has support at: 🔴 Remain: 70% ⚫️ Independence: 24%

Still tickled by the fact another two people donated $12.21 to me I appreciate it folks!

Alberta - Support For Independence: 🔴 Remain: 71% ⚫️ Independence: 18% 🔵 Join The US: 5% Leger / Jan 26, 2026 / n=1003 / Online

"Immigrants should only be allowed in Canada if they adopt Canadian values" 🟢 Agree: 70% 🔴 Disagree: 18% Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

(Models for Subscribers) Alberta Provincial Polling: UCP: 50% (-3) NDP: 37% (-7) ABP: 4% (+3) ALP: 2% (+2) RPA: 2% (New) GPA: 1% (-) WLC: 1% (+1) Leger / Jan 26, 2026 / n=823 / Online (% Change w 2023 Election) Check out AB model details from @338canada.bsky.social here: 338canada.com/alberta

So we'll have federal byelections in Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale to replace Blair and Freeland Then Ontario will have to call a byelection in Scarborough Southwest to replace Begum, who's running for the Libs federally ...

Ontario Liberal leadership hopeful, Nathanial Erskine-Smith, says he will be seeking the Ontario Liberal nomination in Scarborough Southwest

Most Important Issue: Trump/US Relations: 18% (+2) Jobs/Economy: 17% (-) Inflation: 11% (-) Healthcare: 5% (-1) Environment: 5% (-) National Security: 5% (+1) Housing: 4% (-) Immigration: 4% (-1) Nanos / January 30, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online (% Change With January 23, 2026)

Preferred Prime Minister Polling: Carney: 54% (+1) Poilievre: 25% (-) Blanchet: 4% (-) Davies: 4% (+1) Bernier: 2% (-) May: 1% (-2) Unsure: 10% Nanos / January 30, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online (% Change With January 23, 2026)

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 39% (-5) CPC: 35% (-6) NDP: 13% (+7) BQ: 9% (+3) GPC: 3% (+2) PPC: 1% (-) Nanos / January 30, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 51% (+7) CPC: 36% (-5) BQ: 6% (-) NDP: 4% (-2) GPC: 2% (+1) PPC: 1% (-) Others: 1% Mainstreet / Feb 2, 2026 / n=1240 / MOE 2.7% / IVR (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

"92 year old former PM jokes about that time he strangled a guy while miming it to a former political rival" Canada is a weird country sometimes.

So if you thought EKOS was an outlier poll, buckle up lmao

Polling Average In British Columbia: 🔴 LPC: 41% ⬆️ 🔵 CPC: 40% ⏸️ 🟠 NDP: 12% ⬇️ 🟢 GPC: 6% ⬆️

Federal Approval Of (X) Among 65+ Year Olds: Mark Carney: 🟢 Approve: 69% ⚫️ Disapprove: 28% Pierre Poilievre: ⚫️ Disapprove: 69% 🟢 Approve: 25% Liaison / Jan 31, 2026

Federal Approval Of (X) Among 50-64 Year Olds: Mark Carney: 🟢 Approve: 63% ⚫️ Disapprove: 31% Pierre Poilievre: ⚫️ Disapprove: 59% 🟢 Approve: 35% Liaison / Jan 31, 2026

Federal Approval Of (X) Among 35-49 Year Olds: Mark Carney: 🟢 Approve: 65% ⚫️ Disapprove: 31% Pierre Poilievre: ⚫️ Disapprove: 52% 🟢 Approve: 41% Liaison / Jan 31, 2026

Federal Approval Of (X) Among 18-34 Year Olds: Mark Carney: 🟢 Approve: 58% ⚫️ Disapprove: 39% Pierre Poilievre: 🟢 Approve: 46% ⚫️ Disapprove: 46% Liaison / Jan 31, 2026

Frankly it's wild to see Carney still above 60% approval nearly a year later Trudeau had +60% approval when he first entered office in 2015, but he very quickly started to dip post-election

Pierre Poilievre Favourable Polling: ⚫️ Unfavourable: 56% (-1) 🟢 Favourable: 37% (-) Liaison / Jan 31, 2026 (% Change With Jan 26, 2026)

Mark Carney Approval Polling: 🟢 Approve: 64% (+2) ⚫️ Disapprove: 33% (-) Liaison / Jan 31, 2026 (% Change With Jan 26, 2026)

The share of Canadians who now say immigration is having a mostly negative effect in Canada has spiked to 48%, the highest in more than seven years Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Polling Average In Ontario: 🔴 LPC: 47% ⬆️ 🔵 CPC: 40% ⏸️ 🟠 NDP: 9% ⬇️ 🟢 GPC: 2% ⬇️

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 43% (-1) CPC: 35% (-6) NDP: 8% (+2) BQ: 7% (+1) GPC: 3% (+2) PPC: 2% (+1) Others: 2% Liaison / Jan 31, 2026 / n=952 / MOE 3.1% / IVR (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

New polling suggests that Canadians have hit a new high in their hostility towards immigration Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

I'm chuckling at this because not one, but two people then proceeded to interac me $12.21 Thank you for the donations, I appreciate them immensely <3

Polling Average Among Men: 🔵 CPC: 41% ⬇️ 🔴 LPC: 39% ⬆️ 🟠 NDP: 8% ⏸️ ⚜️ BQ: 8% ⬆️ 🟢 GPC: 3% ⏸️

Polling Average Among 18-34 Year Olds: 🔴 LPC: 37% ⬆️ 🔵 CPC: 37% ⬇️ 🟠 NDP: 14% ⬆️ ⚜️ BQ: 6% ⬆️ 🟢 GPC: 3% ⏸️

Quebec Polling Average: 🔴 LPC: 40% ⬆️ ⚜️ BQ: 31% ⬇️ 🔵 CPC: 20% ⏸️ 🟠 NDP: 5% ⏸️ 🟢 GPC: 3% ⬇️

(Models Available For Subscribers) Quebec Provincial Polling: PQ: 32% (+17) PLQ: 26% (+12) CAQ: 17% (-24) PCQ: 14% (+1) QS: 7% (-8) Leger / Jan 29, 2026 / n=838 / Online (% Change With 2022 Election) Check out QC details from @338canada.bsky.social here: 338canada.com/quebec

Polling Canada Federal Model Update: 🔴 LPC: 183 (+14) 🔵 CPC: 124 (-20) ⚜️ BQ: 28 (+6) 🟠 NDP: 6 (-1) 🟢 GPC: 2 (+1) (Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election) - January 31, 2026 - Full model article here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/liberal-ga...

Polling Canada Federal Model Update: 🔴 LPC: 183 (+14) 🔵 CPC: 124 (-20) ⚜️ BQ: 28 (+6) 🟠 NDP: 6 (-1) 🟢 GPC: 2 (+1) (Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election) - January 31, 2026 - Full model article here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/liberal-ga...

Mark Carney's Net-Favourables: 🟢 All: +24% 🟢ATL: +42% 🟢QC: +40% 🟢BC: +27% 🟢ON: +18% 🟢AB: +7% 🟢SK/MB: +5% 🟢Women: +25% 🟢Men: +22% 🟢18-29 Year Olds: +32% 🟢30-44 Year Olds: +9% 🟢45-59 Year Olds: +19% 🟢60+ And Older: +34% Abacus Data / Jan 27, 2026