Federal Approval Of (X) Among 18-34 Year Olds: Mark Carney: 🟢 Approve: 58% ⚫️ Disapprove: 39% Pierre Poilievre: 🟢 Approve: 46% ⚫️ Disapprove: 46% Liaison / Jan 31, 2026

Frankly it's wild to see Carney still above 60% approval nearly a year later Trudeau had +60% approval when he first entered office in 2015, but he very quickly started to dip post-election

Pierre Poilievre Favourable Polling: ⚫️ Unfavourable: 56% (-1) 🟢 Favourable: 37% (-) Liaison / Jan 31, 2026 (% Change With Jan 26, 2026)

Mark Carney Approval Polling: 🟢 Approve: 64% (+2) ⚫️ Disapprove: 33% (-) Liaison / Jan 31, 2026 (% Change With Jan 26, 2026)

The share of Canadians who now say immigration is having a mostly negative effect in Canada has spiked to 48%, the highest in more than seven years Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Polling Average In Ontario: 🔴 LPC: 47% ⬆️ 🔵 CPC: 40% ⏸️ 🟠 NDP: 9% ⬇️ 🟢 GPC: 2% ⬇️

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 43% (-1) CPC: 35% (-6) NDP: 8% (+2) BQ: 7% (+1) GPC: 3% (+2) PPC: 2% (+1) Others: 2% Liaison / Jan 31, 2026 / n=952 / MOE 3.1% / IVR (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

New polling suggests that Canadians have hit a new high in their hostility towards immigration Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

I'm chuckling at this because not one, but two people then proceeded to interac me $12.21 Thank you for the donations, I appreciate them immensely <3

Polling Average Among Men: 🔵 CPC: 41% ⬇️ 🔴 LPC: 39% ⬆️ 🟠 NDP: 8% ⏸️ ⚜️ BQ: 8% ⬆️ 🟢 GPC: 3% ⏸️

Polling Average Among 18-34 Year Olds: 🔴 LPC: 37% ⬆️ 🔵 CPC: 37% ⬇️ 🟠 NDP: 14% ⬆️ ⚜️ BQ: 6% ⬆️ 🟢 GPC: 3% ⏸️

Quebec Polling Average: 🔴 LPC: 40% ⬆️ ⚜️ BQ: 31% ⬇️ 🔵 CPC: 20% ⏸️ 🟠 NDP: 5% ⏸️ 🟢 GPC: 3% ⬇️

(Models Available For Subscribers) Quebec Provincial Polling: PQ: 32% (+17) PLQ: 26% (+12) CAQ: 17% (-24) PCQ: 14% (+1) QS: 7% (-8) Leger / Jan 29, 2026 / n=838 / Online (% Change With 2022 Election) Check out QC details from @338canada.bsky.social here: 338canada.com/quebec

Polling Canada Federal Model Update: 🔴 LPC: 183 (+14) 🔵 CPC: 124 (-20) ⚜️ BQ: 28 (+6) 🟠 NDP: 6 (-1) 🟢 GPC: 2 (+1) (Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election) - January 31, 2026 - Full model article here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/liberal-ga...

Polling Canada Federal Model Update: 🔴 LPC: 183 (+14) 🔵 CPC: 124 (-20) ⚜️ BQ: 28 (+6) 🟠 NDP: 6 (-1) 🟢 GPC: 2 (+1) (Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election) - January 31, 2026 - Full model article here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/liberal-ga...

Mark Carney's Net-Favourables: 🟢 All: +24% 🟢ATL: +42% 🟢QC: +40% 🟢BC: +27% 🟢ON: +18% 🟢AB: +7% 🟢SK/MB: +5% 🟢Women: +25% 🟢Men: +22% 🟢18-29 Year Olds: +32% 🟢30-44 Year Olds: +9% 🟢45-59 Year Olds: +19% 🟢60+ And Older: +34% Abacus Data / Jan 27, 2026

Here's what that EKOS poll looks like modelled out

(Support Me By Subscribing/Donating) Federal Polling: LPC: 44% (-) CPC: 30% (-11) NDP: 14% (+8) BQ: 5% (-1) GPC: 4% (+3) PPC: 2% (+1) EKOS / Jan 30, 2026 / n=1326 / Online (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

Canadians strongly agree that Carney's choice to visit China was the right move, with 65% of Canadians agreeing as much Only 22% of Canadians say it was the wrong move, with Conservatives being the only ones saying as much Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

"Which is closest to your view?" Time For A Change - Good Alternative Available: 38% (-) Re-Elect The Liberals: 36% (+7) Time For A Change - No Good Alternative Available: 26% (-3) Abacus Data / Jan 27, 2026 (% Change With Jan 14, 2026)

Federal Government Approval Polling: Approve: 54% (+7) Disapprove: 31% (-3) Abacus Data / Jan 27, 2026 (% Change With Jan 14, 2026)

Mark Carney's Net-Favourables: 🟢 All: +24% 🟢ATL: +42% 🟢QC: +40% 🟢BC: +27% 🟢ON: +18% 🟢AB: +7% 🟢SK/MB: +5% 🟢Women: +25% 🟢Men: +22% 🟢18-29 Year Olds: +32% 🟢30-44 Year Olds: +9% 🟢45-59 Year Olds: +19% 🟢60+ And Older: +34% Abacus Data / Jan 27, 2026

Pierre Poilievre Net-Favourables: 🔴 All: -6% 🔴QC: -28% 🔴ATL: -14% 🔴ON: -7% 🔴BC: -3% 🟢AB: +18% 🟢SK/MB: +24% 🔴Women: -14% 🟢Men: +1% 🟢18-29 Year Olds: +6% 🟢30-44 Year Olds: +10% 🔴45-59 Year Olds: -6% 🔴60+ And Older: -28% Abacus Data / Jan 27, 2026

Kyle Hutton takes a deep look into the NDP leadership fundraising numbers + a map of where donations came from bluntobjects.substack.com/p/q4-ndp-lea...

Young Canadians are the most likely to say we should be on friendly, or even allied terms, with the Chinese Meanwhile, Conservatives are disproportionately likely to say that Canada should view China as an enemy or a threat Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 43% (-1) CPC: 39% (-2) NDP: 8% (+2) BQ: 6% (-) GPC: 2% (+1) PPC: 2% (+1) Abacus / Jan 27, 2026 / n=2201 / Online (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

Should Ottawa address legitimate grievances from Albertans? Absolutely Should Ottawa, or the Albertan government, entertain separatism? No

A reminder that Albertan independence is not popular Pollara found Albertan independence at 19% Ipsos found it at 28% Research Co found it at 31% (Which I covered below) All had strong majorities against independence Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/albertan-i...

Canadians have rapidly moved away from viewing China as a threat or an enemy Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Canadians have rapidly moved away from viewing China as a threat or an enemy Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Net-Favourables Among Non-Conservative Voters: 🔴 Carney: +47% 🔵 Poilievre: -62% 🟠 Trump: -79% Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Net-Favourables Among Potential Conservative Voters: 🔴 Carney: +35% 🔵 Poilievre: -4% 🟠 Trump: -56% Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

New polling says Canadians believe the Carney trip to China was a rousing success Not only that, but Canadians are rapidly warming to China, with hostility towards the Middle Kingdom dropping fast Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

New polling shows Canadians rapidly warming to China, while many say Carney's trip to China was a rousing success Available for free at 7AM ET Here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Net-Favourables Among Conservative Voters: 🔵 Poilievre: +80% 🟠 Trump: -27% 🔴 Carney: -64% Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Quebec - Chicoutimi Byelection Polling: ⚜️ PQ: 43% (+29) 🟣 CON: 23% (+15) 🔵 CAQ: 12% (-50) 🔴 LIB: 12% (+9) 🟠 QS: 8% (-5) Pallas / Jan 22, 2026 (% Change With 2022 Election)

"Who is best equipped to handling Canada-US relations during Trump's presidency?" Carney: 44% Poilievre: 27% Innovative / Jan 13, 2026

"How would you rate Mark Carney's handling of relations with Donald Trump?" 🔵 Great Job/Good Job: 59% 🔴 Terrible Job/Poor Job: 31% Angus Reid / Jan 27, 2026

"What grade would you give Trump for his first year?" 🔴 F: 66% 🟠 D: 8% 🟡 C: 8% 🟢 B: 9% 🔵 A: 6% Angus Reid / Jan 27, 2026

Mark Carney Net-Approval Among: 🟢All: +25% 🟢ATL: +45% 🟢QC: +33% 🟢BC: +30% 🟢ON: +25% 🟢SK/MB: +20% 🔴AB: -5% 🟢Women: +30% 🟢Men: +21% 🟢18-34 Year Olds: +27% 🟢35-54 Year Olds: +11% 🟢55+ Year Olds: +34% Leger / Jan 26, 2026

Net-Favourables Among The Conservative Base: 🔵 Poilievre: +82% 🟠 Trump: -34% 🔴 Carney: -79% Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/conservati...

(Models Available For Subscribers) Ontario Provincial Polling: PCPO: 43% (-) OLP: 30% (-) ONDP: 18% (-1) GPO: 5% (-) Others: 4% Pallas / Jan 24, 2026 / n=941 / MOE 3.1% / IVR (% Change with 2025 Election) Check out more ON details on @338canada.bsky.social at: 338canada.com/ontario/

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 41% (-3) CPC: 39% (-2) NDP: 9% (+3) BQ: 6% (-) GPC: 3% (+2) Others: 2% Innovative / Jan 13, 2026 / n=1305 / Online (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

Polling Average In Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 🔵 CPC: 47% 🔴 LPC: 35% 🟠 NDP: 12% 🟢 GPC: 2%

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 47% (+3) CPC: 38% (-3) BQ: 6% (-) NDP: 5% (-1) GPC: 2% (+1) Others: 1% Leger / Jan 26, 2026 / n=1359 / Online (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

Nothing will make me laugh more than Atlantic subsamples This is what Atlantic Canada looks like on two different polls from the same week

Poilievre's Net-Favourables In: Alberta: 🟢 Liaison: +17% 🟢 Angus Reid: +2% Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 🔴 Liaison: -2% 🔴 Angus Reid: -17% Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/conservati...

Polling Average In Alberta: 🔵 CPC: 54% 🔴 LPC: 29% 🟠 NDP: 11% 🟢 GPC: 2%

Poilievre's Net-Favourables Among: Men: 🔴 Liaison: -7% 🔴 Angus Reid: -14% Women: 🔴 Angus Reid: -30% 🔴 Liaison: -31% Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/conservati...

"Should the Conservative Party be more or less conservative than today?" All Canadians: Less: 35% Stay the same: 25% More: 25% Conservative Voters: More: 45% Stay the same: 45% Less: 6% Potential Conservative Voters: Less: 30% More: 27% Stay The Same: 6% Abacus Data / Jan 16, 2026