Federal Government Approval Polling: Approve: 68% (+4) Disapprove: 32% (-4) Spark Insights / March 26, 2026 / n=4000 / Online (% Change With January 2026)

Federal Vote Intention Among 2025 Liberal Voters: LPC: 89% CPC: 4% NDP: 4% BQ: 1% Others: 1% Spark Insights / March 26, 2026 / n=4000 / Online

Federal Vote Intention Among 2025 Conservative Voters: CPC: 87% LPC: 8% NDP: 2% Others: 2% Spark Insights / March 26, 2026 / n=4000 / Online

Federal Vote Intention Among 2025 NDP Voters: NDP: 73% LPC: 18% CPC: 5% Others: 2% Spark Insights / March 26, 2026 / n=4000 / Online

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 46% (+2) CPC: 30% (-11) NDP: 11% (+5) BQ: 5% (-1) Others: 8% Spark Insights / March 26, 2026 / n=4000 / Online (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

Polling Canada Federal Model Update: 🔴 LPC: 224 (+55) 🔵 CPC: 91 (-53) ⚜️ BQ: 18 (-4) 🟠 NDP: 8 (+1) 🟢 GPC: 2 (+1) (Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election) - March 28, 2026 - Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

"Do you think invoking the Emergencies Act to deal with protests and blockades against Covid restrictions and mandates were..." Justified: 59% Unjustified: 28% Research Co / March 17, 2026

"The federal government should be overthrown" Disagree: 51% Agree: 34% Research Co / March 17, 2026

"Did you support or oppose the protests/blockades against Covid restrictions/mandates?" Opposed: 47% Supported: 41% Research Co / March 17, 2026

Kyle Hutton has transposed the new Alberta ridings with the previous election results New boundaries net the NDP three seats provincially bluntobjects.substack.com/p/alberta-fi...

View Of The NDP Today: Neutral: 39% Positive: 31% Negative: 29% Abacus / March 24, 2026

"When the NDP supported the Trudeau gov't through supply-and-confidence, did that make you feel (X) towards the NDP?" Less favourable - They propped up a gov't that should have fallen: 37% More favourable - They got things done: 26% Didn't change my view: 37% Abacus / March 24, 2026

"How relevant would you say the NDP is today?" 🟡 Somewhat - Some influence, but not central: 37% 🟠 Not very - Largely on the sidelines: 33% 🔴 Not at all - They don't matter in today's politics: 19% 🟢 Very - Important role in shaping the national conversation: 11% Abacus / March 24, 2026

"What best describes the main reason you wouldn't vote NDP?" - (Pick 3): Can't Win/Wasted Vote: 31% Not Ready To Govern: 31% Like Other Parties/Leaders Better: 27% Not The Right Fit Right Now: 25% Don't Agree With Their Policies: 24%

"What should the NDP's main role be in politics?" Alternative to LPC + CPC: 18% Represent working people/unions: 17% Champion progressive causes others ignore: 15% Push Liberals to the left + Hold them accountable: 12% Form Government + run the country: 7% Unsure: 31% Abacus / March 24, 2026

"What should the NDP focus on most after it selects a new leader?" (Pick 5): Housing Affordability: 60% Healthcare: 58% Taxing the rich/corporations: 49% Fight corporate greed/Break up corporate concentration: 47% Protect workers from AI/Automation: 42%

NDP Leadership Candidate Net-Favourables: Ashton: +8% - (72% Unfamiliar) McPherson: +8% - (67% Unfamiliar) Lewis: +6% - (50% Unfamiliar) McQuail: +3% - (88% Unfamiliar) Johnson: +2% - (94% Unfamiliar) Liaison / March 21, 2026

Avi Lewis is above water nationally at +6% Yet his strongest support isn't among young Canadians thus far, but older Canadians, while his favourables in battleground Ontario just break even

Canadian Impression Of Joe Rogan: Neutral: 28% Negative: 23% Positive: 22% Don't Know Who He Is: 26% Abacus / March 24, 2026

"Was your reaction to Poilievre's interview with Joe Rogan..." All: Positive: 39% Neutral: 37% Negative: 24% Positive Among: Conservatives: 58% Liberals: 25% NDP: 20% Abacus / March 24, 2026

A quarter of former NDP voters say that the NDP is irrelevant today Another 40% of former NDP voters say the party's best days are behind it Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/ndp-retent...

Polling Average In Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 🔵 CPC: 43% (-12) 🔴 LPC: 38% (+4) 🟠 NDP: 12% (+3) 🟢 GPC: 2% (+1) (% Change With 2025 Election)

Polling Average In Quebec: 🔴 LPC: 46% (+3) ⚜️ BQ: 26% (-2) 🔵 CPC: 18% (-5) 🟠 NDP: 5% (-) 🟢 GPC: 2% (+1) (% Change With 2025 Election)

Among past NDP voters, only 52% say they would be likely to consider voting for the party in the future Where the party has absolutely lost support is among blue collar/Conservative-leaning voters that were integral to its coalition Read it free: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/ndp-retent...

Yeah idk what else you'd expect on a 45-point lead lmao

Atlantic Canada - Preferred Prime Minister Polling: Carney: 60% Poilievre: 16% Next NDP Leader: 6% May: 3% Bernier: 1% Narrative Research / March 11, 2026

Atlantic Canada - Satisfaction With Mark Carney's Liberal Government: Satisfied: 67% Dissatisfied: 21% Narrative Research / March 11, 2026

(Support Me By Subscribing/Donating) Atlantic Canada Federal Polling: LPC: 67% (+11) CPC: 22% (-16) NDP: 9% (+5) GPC: 2% (+1) PPC: 1% (-) Narrative / March 11, 2026 / n=1155 / Online (% Change w 2021 Federal Election) Check out details on @338canada.bsky.social at: 338canada.com

Polling Canada Federal Model Update - Seat Range: 🔴 LPC: 198–262 🔵 CPC: 64–114 ⚜️ BQ: 13–24 🟠 NDP: 1–9 🟢 GPC: 1–3 (Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election) - March 21, 2026 - Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

New polling has taken a look at previous NDP voters and whether they would support the party again today The results are not as cheery as many New Democrats may have wished for ahead of their party's convention this weekend Read it free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

"Should governments in Canada provide financial incentives to encourage companies to build AI data centres here?" No: 48% Yes: 31% Abacus Data / March 11, 2026

"If a large AI data centre were proposed in your community, would you..." Oppose it: 34% Support it: 16% Depends on the specific details: 39% Abacus Data / March 11, 2026

"Do you think building more AI data centres will (X) electricity prices?" Increase: 66% Have little impact: 14% Decrease: 3% Abacus Data / March 11, 2026

"Do you think the expansion of AI data centres in Canada will overall..." Create jobs: 37% Lose jobs: 35% Have little impact: 13% Abacus Data / March 11, 2026

"Do you think building more AI data centres in Canada is..." A Good Thing: 38% A Bad Thing: 37% Neither: 9% Abacus Data / March 11, 2026

Small sample size so grain of salt, but 53% of New Democrats say Canada should do what it can to expand oil and gas but not overreact Only 13% say Canada should not be in the business of exporting oil and gas

"What's closest to your view about Canadian oil & gas?" Canada should do what it can to expand, but not overreact to the current international crisis: 45% Canada should urgently expand it: 31% Canada should NOT be in the business of exporting oil and gas: 10% Innovative / March 16, 2026

Most Important Issue: Jobs/Economy: 21% Trump/US Relations: 13% Inflation: 10% Healthcare: 8% Immigration: 5% Housing: 3% World Peace: 3% Crime: 3% National Security: 2% Debt/Deficit 2% Nanos / March 20, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online

Preferred Prime Minister Polling: Carney: 55% (-2) Poilievre: 22% (-) Davies: 3% (-) May: 2% (-) Blanchet: 2% (-) Bernier: 1% (-1) Unsure: 15% Nanos / March 20, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online (% Change With March 13, 2026)

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 46% (+2) CPC: 33% (-8) NDP: 12% (+6) BQ: 5% (-1) GPC: 4% (+3) PPC: 1% (-) Nanos / March 20, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

"What do you want most from a leader?" More important to provide stability in a chaotic world: 55% More important to disrupt the status quo to provide change for the better: 37% Innovative / Feb 2, 2026 - (Released Today)

Manitoba - "Are you willing to accept some economic pain if Canada deliberately reduces its trading relationship with the US?" Willing: 55% Unwilling: 36% Probe Research / March 17, 2026

Manitoba - "Do you think it's likely that the US will use its military to invade Canada within the next two years?" Unlikely: 78% Likely: 22% Probe Research / March 17, 2026

Support for a public inquiry into the way the Covid Pandemic was managed by the federal government: Support: 62% Oppose: 26% Research Co. / March 17, 2026

"Which is closer to your view about Covid?" We were right to have strict measures in place to stop the spread: 53% The response to Covid was probably too heavy-handed: 30% Covid was a hoax and we should never have altered our lives: 10% Research Co. / March 17, 2026

"Looking back, would you say the way the federal government dealt with the Covid pandemic was a success or failure?" Success: 56% Failure: 33% Research Co. / March 17, 2026

Mark Carney Net Approval In: 🟢 All: +32% 🟢 ATL: +44% 🟢 ON: +41% 🟢 QC: +35% 🟢 BC: +20% 🟢 AB: +17% 🟢 MB/SK: +16% Liaison / March 21, 2026

Mark Carney Approval Polling Among: Men: 🟢 Approve: 64% ⚫️ Disapprove: 32% Women: 🟢 Approve: 64% ⚫️ Disapprove: 31% Other: 🟢 Approve: 67% ⚫️ Disapprove: 31% Liaison / March 21, 2026

Leader Impression Polling: Mark Carney: 🟢 Approve: 64% ⚫️ Disapprove: 32% ⚪️ Net: +32% Pierre Poilievre: ⚫️ Unfavourable: 53% 🟢 Favourable: 38% ⚪️ Net: -15% Liaison / March 21, 2026

(Models Available For Subscribers) Federal Polling: LPC: 46% (+2) CPC: 32% (-9) NDP: 9% (+3) BQ: 7% (+1) GPC: 3% (+2) PPC: 2% (+1) Others: 2% Liaison / March 21, 2026 / n=916 / MOE 3.1% / IVR (% Change w 2025 Federal Election) Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com