Mon entrevue avec Patrick Masbourian à la radio de Radio-Canada Montréal ce matin: état des négociations entre les États-Unis et l’Iran; perspectives d'entente; scénarios possibles d'attaque américaine (plus chirurgicale, ou à plus grande échelle): ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

Conférence en ligne, lundi prochain le 9 février, 11h30-12h30, avec Hanieh Ziaei et moi, présidée par @ldlmontreal.bsky.social et organisée par le @cerium-udem.bsky.social: Révoltes populaires en Iran : un point de non-retour ? (inscription: cerium.umontreal.ca/nouvelles-et...)

I was back to The Decibel, the daily podcast of @globeandmail, to talk about US-Iran tensions: prospects for talks, scenarios in case of US strikes on Iran, possible consequences. www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMeQ...

À 19h00, je retrouve Louise Blais @thomasjuneau.bsky.social et Frédéric Lasserre à 24/60. Au menu: Groënland et Gaza.

My new article for the @SanaaCenter: what do events of the past weeks in southern Yemen mean for Iran's role and influence in the country? how will these events affect the internal balance of power with the Houthis, and how does Iran perceive this? sanaacenter.org/publications...

Canada badly needs to diversify its trade (see: Trump threatens more tariffs on Europe today). Qatar & other Gulf countries are fast rising financial powers. Canada needs to deepen relations with them (especially Qatar, UAE, Saudi). My interview with CP: toronto.citynews.ca/2026/01/17/m...

As PM Carney arrives in Qatar, re-upping my late 2025 op-ed in the Globe & Mail. As it badly needs to diversify trade relations, Canada should prioritize deeper ties with the Gulf (especially Qatar, UAE & Saudi Arabia), a region it has long neglected. www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...

My Canadian Press interview on PM Carney's Qatar visit: -Canada has neglected the Gulf, but it is the epicenter of power in the Middle East -we need to deal with the Gulf as it is not as we wish it were; it will not democratize & Canada has no say on that ca.news.yahoo.com/gulf-expert-...

C'était prévisible, ce n'est pas une surprise, mais ce n'est pas moins une tragédie: la brutalité inouïe de la répression en Iran est en train de réussir à vaincre les protestations. Mais la tendance est claire, il y aura une prochaine fois. www.985fm.ca/audio/750171...

La manchette du jour, gracieuseté de La Presse:

Mon entrevue au Téléjournal hier: le régime iranien est extrêmement vulnérable à l'interne et géopolitiquement, mais sa très grande capacité répressive - maintenant pleinement déployée - devrait lui permettre de survivre, pour le moment ici.radio-canada.ca/info/videos/...

If the Islamic Republic survives the current protests (which it probably will, albeit much weakened), it will intensify its already intense efforts to target dissidents/critics abroad. It did this in past waves (eg Women, Life, Freedom), so democratic countries need to prepare.

A privilege to be back on The Decibel, @theglobeandmail.com podcast, to talk about the protests in Iran, where they could go next, and what the implications could be: www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4-E...

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM sur les protestations en Iran, qui continuent de s'intensifier. La chute du régime ne semble pas imminente, du moins pas encore; le régime maintient encore le contrôle sur une capacité répressive importante. www.985fm.ca/audio/748959...

Mon entrevue avec Le Devoir aujourd'hui:

My interview on CBC's Power and Politics: because of growing street protests & heavy geopolitical losses, the Islamic Republic is in a heavily vulnerable position. Regime collapse is not imminent, but this is extremely hard to predict. -@DavidWCochrane www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtgE...

Mon entrevue avec Philippe Cantin au 98.5FM aujourd'hui: non, la République islamique ne semble pas au bord de l'effondrement... mais: -elle sous très forte pression interne et externe, et cette pression croît -prédire son effondrement est impossible www.985fm.ca/audio/748596...

This is good: after his visit to the UAE a few weeks ago, this will help Canada deepen relations in the Gulf. Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney, will travel to Qatar on 18 January. He will be the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit Qatar. globalnews.ca/news/1160536...

Harsh but probably true: "The Islamic Republic deserves to be swept into the dustbin of history. But the harsh reality is that there will be no soft transition away from it. Any regime change will likely be violent, prolonged, and destructive" @borzou.bsky.social borzou.substack.com/p/protests-w...

Six years ago today, on 8 January 2020, Iran's IRGC shot down flight PS752, killing all 176 on board, including 55 Canadian citiziens and 30 permanent residents. May the memory of those aboard PS752 be a blessing.

Big protests in Iran tonight. -regime collapse is not imminent -...but any regime's stability is extremely unpredictable & we are all bad at predictions -indicators to watch: protest size (growing); defections + fissures in the regime & chain of command (not significant so far)

Je serai à 24 heures en 60 minutes à RDI vers 19h45 ce soir pour parler des protestations en Iran

Thank you so much for reviewing my book 🙏

My review of @kristianulrichsen.bsky.social's new book, Centers of Power in the Arab Gulf States: -a "sweeping and rigorous review and synthesis of the literature on the exercise of power"; "an invaluable reference... to better understand the six Arab states of the Persian Gulf".

I agree - the envoy on combatting antisemitism position has been vacant for 6 months now, and a new person should be reappointed urgently Jewish leaders urge Carney to fill antisemitism envoy role, saying Bondi Beach mass shooting a ‘wake-up call’ www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have pursued divergent goals in Yemen since 2015. Opposition to the Houthis allowed them to maintain a facade of unity & agree to disagree on the rest, but this was unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. For more on UAE goals: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

There has been a consistent pattern in Yemen for decades, of regional and great powers viewing the country as a theatre to pursue broader ambitions. This has been the case for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, now confronting each other, and also for the US and Iran (and others).

One of our most-read articles of 2025: @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyzes Iran’s annus horribilis and lays out the potential for the Islamic Republic “to claw back its losses” amid the “new normal in the regional balance of power.” Open access: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

First time skiing this year. Not bad conditions at all for a December 23rd. cc @aaronstein1.bsky.social

Book of the week - Iran, by Ali Ansari. A very well written, clear, and concise history of contemporary Iran. In under 200 pages, a comprehensive overview of the constitutional revolution, the Qajar and Pahlavi eras, & the Islamic Republic. A great reference book.

Hostile spy agencies are now as focused on infiltrating western universities and companies as they are on doing so to governments, according to the former head of Canada’s intelligence service. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...

Best of ’25, cont.: the new (dis)order, from Iran-Israel to a WMD-free zone, new approach to collapsed states, Saudi hedging, regional corporate elite. With @thomasjuneau.bsky.social @banafshkeynoush.bsky.social @hannesbaumann.bsky.social @drrmason.bsky.social & many more mepc.org/commentaries...

Nice shoutout from one of my favorite analysts of Canadian foreign and defence policy, @achapnick.bsky.social: cc @jessmarindavis.bsky.social, @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social & @leahwest-nsl.bsky.social buttondown.com/achapnick/ar...

My interview with DW: -much is still unclear in South Yemen, where separatist forces have expanded eastwards -sustaining these gains will be difficult -the Houthis stand to gain, at least for now, from the internationally recognized government's weakening www.dw.com/en/in-yemen-...

«Au minimum, les Emirats n’ont pas dit non à leurs protégés, sans quoi jamais ils ne se seraient lancés dans une telle conquête», estime Thomas Juneau, de l’université d’Ottawa (Canada), chercheur associé au Centre de Sanaa pour les études stratégiques. www.lemonde.fr/internationa...

Morocco 1 - Saudi Arabia 0, at the FIFA Arab Cup 2025 in Qatar (on the Katara beach corniche)

Last dinner in Doha, at an Armenian Lebanese restaurant: eggplant fatet and Yerevan kebab

On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, celebrating at a Syrian restaurant in Doha:

Great panel at the Doha Forum on US-Saudi relations with @AzizAlghashian, Victoria Coates & David Schenker, chaired by @jpanikoff: -US-Saudi relations are on more solid footing -Saudi efforts to diversify their relations, still under a US umbrella, are well understood in the US

Now at the Doha Forum: Syria's new president, Ahmed Al Shara'a

Why is this good news? Canada has an interest in contributing to Syria's reconstruction, working with its allies and partners. The challenges are massive, but these sanctions acted as major obstacles.

Great panel on Yemen at the Doha Forum, with Hans Grundberg (UN Envoy), Dr. Shaya Mohsin Zindani (Yemen foreign minister), amd Dr Abdulaziz Saqer (GRC), chaired by Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen from the Sanaa Center.

This is good news: Canada removes Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism and removes HTS from its List of Terrorist Entities. www.canada.ca/en/global-af...

UAE-backed separatist forces significantly expanded their control in south Yemen this week. For background on UAE policy in Yemen (objectives, who it supports, consequences) see my Survival article: The UAE & the War in Yemen: From Surge to Recalibration www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Nice to be back in Qatar, for the Doha Forum

Almost there

Book of the week - Iran's Grand Strategy: A political history, by @valinasr.bsky.social. Great overview of the history and politics of Iran's grand strategy, with very useful emphasis on elements of continuity and change over time. One of the best books on Iran I've read.

"To survive and thrive in a world of American retrenchment, unilateralism and protectionism, Ottawa should prioritize deeper ties with other democracies, since common values often imply similar interests. But Canada also shares important interests... with non-democracies."

"The loud but empty moralizing of the past will not only fail to allow Canada to promote its interests in the Gulf, it will also be counterproductive... there is simply no space for Canada to pressure them with any success on human rights."

"Canada does not have the luxury of being able to avoid hard foreign policy decisions, as it had until recently. All too comfortable with the tremendous security and economic benefits we derived from close relations with the US, we became complacent"