Mon entrevue avec @CGalipeauTJ au Téléjournal hier sur la reconnaissance par le Canada et ses alliés de l'état palestinien. Un petit pas, risqué, qui pourrait ne rien donner mais qui, s'il s'inscrit dans un renouveau du processus de paix, peut aider. ici.radio-canada.ca/info/videos/...

"There is a strong possibility that there will be no peace process... In this scenario, the catastrophe will continue for the Palestinian people and, in the absence of a viable Palestinian state, Israel’s survival as a Jewish democracy will be under growing strain"

Je serai au Téléjournal avec @PatriceRoyTJ vers 18h30, à 24 heures en 60 minutes avec @AMarieDussault vers 19h, puis au Téléjournal en soirée avec @CGalipeauTJ pour parler de la reconnaissance de l'état palestinien par le Canada et quelques uns de ses alliés.

"The two-state solution remains the only plausible path towards peace and dignity for both Palestinians and Israelis. It is, however, on life-support. To revive it, one of the necessary though far from sufficient conditions is the strengthening of the Palestinian Authority"

My new op-ed in @globeandmail: Canada & allies recognize Palestinian statehood. Both critics and supporters exaggerate the impact and the change in policy it represents. It is a small but useful step - but only if it is part of a broader peace process. www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/arti...

Britain, Australia, Canada & others recognize Palestinian statehood -good decision - no, it's not a reward to Hamas: statehood is the best tool to fight terrorism -meaningless if not accompanied by a broader push for peace & reform in the Palestinisn Authority www.nytimes.com/2025/09/21/w...

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM aujourd'hui: mise à jour sur la situation à Gaza - assaut israélien sur la ville de Gaza, pressions internationales sur Israël (qui ne changera pas la position d'Israël). www.985fm.ca/audio/724929...

Secure Line is back! Season 2 opens with an overview of this summer's events, including Carney's plans (maybe?), CAF problems, Quebec terrorism arrests & implications of Trump Administration's actions regarding the US IC. Available on all the podcast apps & Youtube. www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wrl...

Hello Toronto

I am very much looking forward to speaking on Sunday at the Haaretz Toronto conference (organized with the New Israel Fund and J Space Canada), along with a great line-up of speakers: www.haaretz.com/peace/2025-0...

"When the Hamas office was opened in Qatar several years ago, it was done with the very explicit support of the US and Israel..." Juneau said... "Netanyahu explicitly allowed Qatar to pay civil service salaries, for example, in Gaza before October 2023" www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

Some rare very good news: Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Russian-Israeli graduate student at Princeton and top researcher who was kidnapped in Iraq in 2023 by the Iran-backed group Kataib Hezbollah, has been released www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/w...

Mon entrevue avec Alec Castonguay à Midi-Info aujourd'hui: frappes israéliennes sur le leadership politique du Hamas au Qatar. Pourquoi, avec quelles conséquences? Pourquoi le Qatar joue-t-il ce rôle de médiateur? ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM: ultimatum de Trump au Hamas; obstacles pour en arriver à un cessez-le-feu; non, Israël ne réussira pas à éliminer le Hamas; que veut le Hamas (protéger son rôle après la guerre; d'ici là, les otages sont un bouclier humain). www.985fm.ca/audio/722078...

For decades, one of the greatest sources of America's power was its deep web of alliances and partnerships - something the USSR never had and China has not come close to having so far. Trump is causing the collapse of that competitive advantage. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...

My interview with the Sydney Morning Herald: It's plausible Iran will "focus even more in the future on such indirect attacks,” he said. This could lead to more use of “asymmetric” tactics such as terrorist attacks, cyber warfare, acts of subversion & disinformation www.smh.com.au/world/middle...

Australia accuses Iran of directing antisemitic attacks on cafe and synagogue This is consistent with Iran's usual playbook, which includes targeting dissidents abroad, disinformation campaigns, and attacks on Israeli/Jewish institutions www.bbc.com/news/article...

Israel struck the Houthis in Yemen again today. The Houthis won't be deterred, let alone defeated, by US & Israeli strikes alone. While it is useful to degrade them militarily, what is still lacking is a viable political strategy to boost the weak anti-Houthi coalition:

A non-partisan intelligence community is essential for a democracy and makes for much better national security - and it takes decades to build. Trump's assault on US intelligence will severely damage both democratic health and US security, and will take years to repair - at best.

Les chercheurs du CÉPI @thomasjuneau.bsky.social et @srdj.bsky.social travaillent depuis plusieurs années sur un projet consacré à la politique de défense canadienne. Le volume 1 a été publié en 2020, le volume 2 en 2023, et le travail sur le volume 3 débutera dans les prochains mois !

CIPS Researchers @thomasjuneau.bsky.social & @srdj.bsky.social have been working on a Canadian Defence Policy project over the last several years. Volume 1 was released in 2020, Volume 2 in 2023, and work on Volume 3 will begin in the coming months! Learn more >>> bit.ly/45Werx8

"Aujourd’hui, il ne subsiste de Yemenia Airways que quatre appareils, une entreprise fragmentée, des passagers sans échappatoire : une parfaite allégorie d’un Yémen à genoux." Article fascinant par Laurent Bonnefoy sur Yemenia Airways: orientxxi.info/magazine/yem...

The last Shah of Iran was deeply corrupt, violent and unpopular. Great article by Alex Shams on the delusion that his son could lead a regime change campaign. (that the Islamic Republic is even more corrupt, violent and unpopular does not change this) www.bostonreview.net/articles/our...

Too long for my classes, but I recommend it every semester

Book of the week - A Day in the Life of Abed Salama: Anatomy of a Jerusalem Tragedy, by Nathan Thrall. One of the best books I've read on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to understand its roots and its geography, the raw brutality and injustice of life under occupation.

Friday was nice

If true, this is the right decision, Canada should join the US's missile defence system: -it is good for Canadian security -it absolutely is better for Canadian sovereignty -most important, it is best for Canada-US relations -(but yes, it will be costly) ottawacitizen.com/public-servi...

Two-in-three Canadians call humanitarian situation in Gaza a ‘moral outrage’; most say Israel is deliberately blocking aid angusreid.org/israel-gaza-...

I find that many exaggerate the importance of Canada committing to recognizing Palestinian statehood, among both critics and supporters. Yes, it's an important and welcome shift. But: -its impact will be at best limited - and only if it is as part of a broader push for peace (1/2)

Juneau said it’s not clear how Canada is assessing whether the Palestinian Authority has done enough. “That’s the right approach, but the progress that Prime Minister Carney mentioned is extremely ambitious, and it’s also fairly vague,” he said. torontosun.com/news/nationa...

Thomas Juneau, a University of Ottawa professor who specialized in the Middle East, said that without a change in government in Israel, it's unlikely the conditions for a two-state solution will be met. www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

Thomas Juneau... said Canada’s demands are ambitious and the right ones to put on the table but added: “In a narrow sense, there is a precisely zero per cent chance that all of that is going to happen by September.” www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...

Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa and a Middle East expert, said he supports Canada’s decision to recognize Palestinian statehood, but he was surprised by the timing given the trade negotiations with the United States. www.theglobeandmail.com/world/articl...

Lots of questions on this. Canada set criteria for recognition (elections, PA reforms, marginalization of Hamas). I agree with these, but they are ambitious & general. On what precise basis will Canada decide by September (ie very soon) if they are respected? If not, what then?

Je suis à RDI dans quelques minutes pour parler de l'engagement du Canada à reconnaître l'état palestinien cet automne... pourquoi? quel impact? quels défis?

Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa who specializes in the Middle East, told the Star the recognition of a Palestinian state would be a small step to legitimize the Palestinian Authority over Hamas, which is a necessity for peace. www.thestar.com/politics/fed...

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM ce matin: le Canada s'engage à reconnaître l'état Palestinien. Non, ce n'est pas une récompense pour le Hamas; au contraire. Alors pourquoi, et pourquoi maintenant? www.985fm.ca/audio/714424...

Mon entrevue à la radio de Radio-Canada (Ottawa) ce matin: le Canada reconnaîtra la Palestine si l'Autorité Palestinienne progresse avec certaines réformes. C'est bien, mais les obstacles vers la paix sont énormes, et le Canada risque d'irriter Trump. ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

My interview with @ianhanomansing.bsky.social on CBC tonight: Canada will recognize the Palestinian state in the fall if the Palestinian Authority commits to certain reforms. Why now? What are the consequences? What should be the next steps? (starting at 5 minutes) www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Os-...

I support this: -no, it doesn't reward terrorism; to the contrary it aims to boost the Palestinian Authority against Hamas -but on its own, it's true it leads nowhere. It works only as part of a broader strategy to revive the peace process (which at best will be incredibly hard)

I will be on CBC with Ian Hanomansing at 19h05 tonight to talk about Canada announcing that it will recognize Palestinian statehood.

This is a positive (and overdue) step: -no, it won't resolve the conflict, no one seriously thinks it will, but it can help build momentum and boost the Palestinian Authority -especially because it is done in coordination with allies and is conditional on PA reforms

Canada will recognize the State of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly in September, Prime Minister Mark Carney just announced

“Canada should try to reopen its embassy in Damascus as soon as possible,” said University of Ottawa professor Thomas Juneau, an expert on the Middle East. www.hilltimes.com/story/2025/0...

Quelle tristesse. Peut-être la plume la plus fine, la plus éloquente, la plus drôle, la plus intelligente, la plus colorée, la plus mordante que j'aie eu le plaisir de lire. Reposez en paix. www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2...

Mon entrevue ce soir au 15-18 à la radio de Radio-Canada: la solution à 2 états (Israël/Palestine) est-elle encore viable? oui, mais elle est sur le respirateur artificiel; elle demeure néanmoins la seule option pour assurer sécurité & dignité aux 2 peuples. ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

Amnesty International condemns Iran for unlawful ballistic missile strikes utilizing cluster munitions which landed in residential areas in Israel during the 12-day war in June. www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...

"The assault marks a tenuous moment for Yemen’s future." Sam Ali analyzes Red Sea developments and renewed Houthi strikes on international shipping in DAWN's Democracy in Exile, with comments from @thomasjuneau.bsky.social, @carvajalf.bsky.social, and @yemenifatima.bsky.social.

"I am not surprised by the fact that the Houthis have renewed their attacks in the Red Sea…It was only a matter of time before they did," Thomas Juneau, an associate fellow at Chatham House and professor at the University of Ottawa. dawnmena.org/yemens-futur...

It was great to appear on Eye for Iran, the @iraninternational.bsky.social podcast, to talk to Negar Mojtahedi about recent Middle East events: Israeli strikes in Syria, how Iran will try to rebuild its influence in Syria, & Iran's geopolitical losses since 2024: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns8s...