My interview with the Vassy Kapelos show today, hosted by Tim Powers: update on the US-Iran talks on Saturday; where they might be heading; what Trump is trying to achieve with the blockade of Iran that started, sort of, today. www.iheart.com/podcast/962-...

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM avec Patrick Lagacé ce matin: pas de progrès samedi dans les négociations entre l'Iran et les États-Unis; que veut dire la menace de Trump d'imposer un blocus sur l'Iran; conséquences de l'incohérence dans la stratégie américaine. www.985fm.ca/audio/769715...

Waterloo Place, London

Mon entrevue au Téléjournal à Radio-Canada avec Céline Galipeau hier soir: est-ce que le cessez-le-feu entre l'Iran et les États-Unis va tenir? quels sont les obstacles principaux? quelles sont les conséquences pour la population iranienne? www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeZ8...

For The Decibel, the Globe and Mail's podcast, I talk about the Bab al Mandab, the strait off the coast of Yemen. The Houthis have the capability to block it. Why did they not do so during the war? Could they in the future? With what consequences? www.theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the...

London is amazing for many reasons - and its many parks is close to the top of the list. St James Park here:

Very nice to be again this year on The Hill Times' list of Top 50 influencers of Canadian foreign policy www.hilltimes.com/2026/04/08/i...

Who won the war? It really depends on your criteria for success. Both the US and Iran can plausibly claim some wins. On balance, I think Iran has a slightly better case: -But not by much -And keep in mind the war is not over; this is a fragile ceasefire, with the hardest steps ahead.

Important thread ⬇️

US, Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire. Some thoughts: -Both had strong reasons to want the war to stop (very costly for each, even if in a very different way) -Their demands in coming talks for a durable ceasefire are VERY distant, & both will be intransigent -So the risk of renewed violence is real

Hello, London. One of the great cities in the universe. (yes, I ate most of the fries before taking the picture)

-"By only launching missiles or drones on Israel, Houthi attacks cannot have a decisive impact on the balance of forces in the war." -"For now, it is plausible to assume that the Houthis are hesitant to renew efforts to block the Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea."

Why did the Houthis strike Israel this weekend? what could have been their goal? And why have they not resumed their attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea after one month of US/Israel war on Iran? Where does Iran stand? My analysis for the Sanaa Center: sanaacenter.org/publications...

If Houthi involvement in the war remains limited to missile/drone attacks on Israel, it will not have an important impact. So what is their calculus? -Israel can intercept the vast majority of Houthi missile/drones; the physical damage in Israel will be at most limited

My interview with TIME: -if Houthi strikes are limited to a few direct attacks on Israel, they will not have a major impact -But they would have much more impact if they start targeting shipping in the Red Sea because of the economic pain this would cause time.com/article/2026...

Thread.

IF (still an if at this point) the Houthis only attack Israel with missiles & refrain from attacking Red Sea shipping for now, that would be a clear signal to Saudi Arabia & the US that they do not seek escalation with them (& want to focus on propaganda gains against Israel).

This will get worse the longer the war goes on: "the cascading effects of the conflict on fertilizer supplies are growing worse by the day, raising prices for farmers globally and threatening to lead to food insecurity in some parts of the world." www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/b...

To understand the Houthi calculus: my piece for the Sanaa Center (where I am a fellow) after the Iran-Israel June 2025 war: what does a weakened - but not defeated - Islamic Republic mean for Iran-Houthi ties? sanaacenter.org/the-yemen-re...

The Houthis attacked Israel today with a ballistic missile, joining the wear alongside Iran. Why, why now, and so what?

The Houthis joined the war today by attacking Israel. For background on the Iran-Houthi relationship (evolution, nature of Iran's support, dynamics between the two, consequences), see my article "How War in Yemen Transformed the Iran-Houthi Partnership": www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Mon entrevue au Téléjournal 17h à Radio-Canada ce soir, avec Michel C. Auger, Catherine Loubier, et Rafael Jacob pour le panel américain animé par Julie Drolet: près de 4 semaines de guerre, où en sont les négociations États-Unis/Iran? www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ua-f...

Mon entrevue à Zone Info à Radio-Canada cet après-midi: bilan apreès presque 4 semaines de guerre. On en est où avec l'équilibre des forces dans le golfe, les négociations, les conséquences de la guerre. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsRJ...

My interview with Vassy Kapelos today: Trump says talks are progressing and that Iran badly wants a deal; Iran denies there are talks. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle: both sides are exchanging messages through Pakistan, but are far apart. omny.fm/shows/580-cf...

Thread.

According to media reports, Trump is seriously considering ground operations against Iran. Here is why that would be a very, very bad idea that shows a pathological failure to learn from history. -(Keep in mind that with Trump, who knows what is true; this may be only a pressure tactic on Iran)

Mon entrevue avec Patrick Lagacé au 98.5FM ce matin. La vérité est probalement au milieu, entre les démentis iraniens et les grandes proclamations de Trump: le Pakistan sert de messager et les négos commencent, mais on demeure loin d'une entente. www.985fm.ca/audio/765953...

Mon entrevue avec Patrick Masbourian à la radio de Radio-Canada Montréal ce matin: les coûts de la guerre augmentent pour Trump, mais il faut prendre avec une brouette de sel ce qu'il nous dit - ultimatum, moratoire, la guerre finit bientôt, ou pas. ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

"Iran’s ability to project power regionally will be curtailed because of the severe losses that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes are imposing... But the fundamental tension between Iran and the US will not be resolved. Future rounds of violence... will therefore be likely."

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM cet après-midi. On parle des succès tactiques du renseignement israélien, qui accumule les opérations impressionnantes contre l'Iran. J'insiste aussi sur le défi - pas réussi jusqu'ici - de les traduire en succès stratégique durable www.985fm.ca/audio/764744...

The US went to war with laudable but vague & incoherent hopes: to weaken the Islamic Republic and, maybe, to overthrow it. "Hope, however, is not a strategy. The war risks leaving in power a weaker but worse government that will pose a severe threat to its own people and to its neighbors."

As usual, The Economist nails it:

"The Iranian regime is suffering heavy blows as a result of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign, but it is not on the verge of collapse... This means the Islamic Republic is likely to emerge weaker but more violent, aggressive, and vengeful."

My new piece for @ForeignPolicy. The most likely outcome of the war is a weaker but nastier Iran. What this means for Iranians (more repression), the region (weaker Axis; bitter legacy), & US-Iran relations (the cycle of violence will repeat itself): foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/19/i...

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM aujourd'hui: -Démission de Joe Kent: il blâme Israël pour la guerre, mais n'oublions pas qu'il est un extrémiste de droite, profondément antisémite -L'Iran bloque le détroit d'Ormuz, mais les ÉU infligent aussi des pertes énormes à l'Iran www.985fm.ca/audio/763837...

Mon entrevue au Téléjournal à Radio-Canada hier soir, avec Céline Galipeau: -coalition pour sécuriser le détroit d'Ormuz: confusion et improvisation de Trump -pourquoi les alliés sont réticents -pourquoi une telle mission serait risquée et peu efficace www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-xi...

Mon entrevue à Midi-Info à la radio de Radio-Canada aujourd'hui: en quoi une mission maritime afin de sécuriser le détroit d'Ormuz serait dangereuse et inefficace; l'improvisation de Trump quand il demande aux alliés américains d'aider. ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

Mon entrevue aujourd'hui avec Alain Gravel aux Faits d'abord à la radio de Radio-Canada: bilan au 15e jour de la guerre en Iran. ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

"The selection of Mojtaba as his father's successor is an additional indication that the regime's leadership intends to remain defiant and does not plan to compromise on what it perceives as its core values and interests," said Juneau.

Re-upping from this week: The Islamic Republic of Iran is likely to survive the war. If it does, it will be weaker but also nastier. That means it will intensify its already intense efforts to intimidate, pressure & threaten anti-regime Iranian Canadians. nationalpost.com/opinion/thom...

Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa, told AFP that "the system is resilient... Continuity is built into the system and its institutions and so far, there is no indication that the collapse of the Islamic republic is imminent." www.yahoo.com/news/article...

(Surréel, mais pour être clair, dans le Débat National qui déchire le Québec sur Angine de poitrine, je suis un fan - créatifs, originaux, drôle, bonne musique. Une très belle expérience). #TLMEP

Great to be on @thepaikinpodcast.bsky.social alongside Janice Stein to talk about war in Iran: can you bomb your way to regime change (no), what is the US strategy (we don't know), what if the Islamic Republic survives (it will be weaker & nastier). www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNCW...

Almost two weeks into the war, where do we stand: -we have no more clarity on the US endgoal (beyond "this will stop when Trump feels like it"). -it's increasingly unlikely the US will be able to translate real tactical successes (serious hits on Iran) into durable strategic gains.

Mon entrevue au Téléjournal avec @patriceroy.bsky.social, en compagnie de Pierre Pahlavi, ce soir. On parle de la situation dans le détroit d'Ormuz, de ses conséquences, et des solutions possibles. www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqZq...

"Electoral interference has rightly captured much attention in recent years, but transnational repression — another category of foreign interference — presents an equally, if not greater threat."

It was great to go on @ryanjespersen.bsky.social to talk about the war in Iran: will the regime collapse (not likely, for now at least); what are the consequences if it survives (it will be weaker but nastier) or if it eventually collapses (chaos is likely); making sense of Canada's position.

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM aujourd'hui: la République islamique encaisse les coups et elle souffre, mais elle n'est pas au bord de l'effondrement. Et est-ce que le Président Trump reçoit la meilleure information et analyse à propos de l'Iran et de la guerre? www.985fm.ca/audio/762778...

My interview on CBC Ottawa radio this morning - the war in Iran escalates. Where to next? www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...