Mon panel à RDI hier soir à 24 heures en 60 minutes, animé par Anne-Marie Dussault, avec deux autres invités, Vincent Hugeux et Ferry de Kerckhove: on parle des perspectives d'une entente Iran/États-Unis, et des limites d'une éventuelle entente: ici.radio-canada.ca/rdi/24-60/si...

Mon entrevue à la radio de Radio-Canada hier soir, avec Madeleine Blais-Morin à Ça nous regarde: Quels sont les obstacles à une entente entre l'Iran et les États-Unis ? Quelles seraient les conséquences d'une entente? ici.radio-canada.ca/ohdio/premie...

My interview with @deutschewelle.dw.com: what are the obstacles to a US-Iran deal, what kind of deal would it be (at best a limited one), what would come next (still much instability and even more difficult talks): www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWz7...

Join us next Tuesday! Featuring @mevesylvestre.bsky.social, @thomasjuneau.bsky.social, @germanambcanada.bsky.social, Stefanie Beck, @plagasse.bsky.social, Christopher Coates, Wayne Eyre, Alexandra Gheciu, David Vigneault, Jody Thomas & @kerrybuck.bsky.social >>> www.cips-cepi.ca/event/divers...

Rejoignez-nous mardi prochain ! Avec @mevesylvestre.bsky.social, @thomasjuneau.bsky.social, @germanambcanada.bsky.social, Stefanie Beck, @plagasse.bsky.social, Christopher Coates, Wayne Eyre, Alexandra Gheciu, David Vigneault, Jody Thomas et @kerrybuck.bsky.social www.cepi-cips.ca/event/divers...

My interview with Vassy Kapelos's radio show today: deal or no deal with Iran? Probably soon, though many obstacles remain. But it will be a limited deal, mostly a more durable ceasefire, and a commitment to negotiate later on the more complex issues. omny.fm/shows/580-cf...

Mon entrevue à RDI ce matin: accord ou pas avec l'Iran? Pas 100% certain, mais probablement, d'ici quelques jours. Mais ce sera un accord limité, surtout un cessez-le-feu plus durable, et un engagement à négocier plus tard sur les enjeux plus complexes. www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8Al...

New Uyghur restaurant in Ottawa - success. (here: laghman, noodles with beef and vegetables, a dish I ate a lot in Xinjiang)

Germany's ambassador to Canada, Tjorven Bellmann, will also participate in a panel at our 2 June event on Canada's security and defence partnerships. Details in the link below:

The San Diego Islamic Centre shooting was not an isolated act of hate. It was part of a far-right “curriculum of violence,” where attackers study, cite, and try to outdo one another. My new piece for @theconversation.com theconversation.com/the-san-dieg...

Another speaker at our 2 June event at @uottawa on the diversification of Canada's defence, security and intelligence partnerships: Prof. @plagasse.bsky.social from Carleton University. (details below; event is both in-person and virtual)

My interview with Iran International: where are we at in the war between Iran and the US; what are the prospects for peace (not good); is Iran weaker or stronger after the war (both); and why transnational repression by the Islamic Republic will worsen: www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OBB...

It's publication day! Mine and @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social's book is now available anywhere books are sold: www.mqup.ca/Books/F/For-...

The US is at war against Iran, the Middle East is on fire and yet the US doesn’t have ambassadors in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Iraq & Kuwait. 18 months into Trump II, around 60% of US ambassador posts are vacant. This is diplomatic malpractice. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Video of my interview with the Canadian Press on Canada's relations with Arab countries of the Persian Gulf (especially the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia): why it is more of a priority under the Carney government, and why that it is the right approach. www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iBj...

I finally grew up and Joined LinkedIn. Still figuring out how to use it, but don't hesitate to connect if you are on it.

I told AFP that while Iran has made gains by blocking the Gulf, "the leadership was taking a gamble, facing a "hugely discontented population"... a struggling economy, and major damage to civilian and military infrastructure after US-Israeli attacks." www.yahoo.com/news/article...

Another speaker at our 2 June event on the diversification of Canada's security and defence partnerships: Jody Thomas, former national security and intelligence adviser to the prime minister. Details on the event (which is both in-person and virtual) and on registration below:

Mon entrevue à 24 heures en 60 minutes à RDI avec Anne-Marie Dussault hier soir (et Vincent Hugeux comme co-invité): impasse entre les États-Unis et l'Iran. ici.radio-canada.ca/info/videos/...

Mon analyse à @france24.com hier: Trump suit un pattern historique d'interventionnisme militaire américain, avec une incapacité chronique à traduire une supériorité militaire énorme et des victoires tactiques en succès stratégique durable. www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e-g...

Great to be back on Defence Deconstructed, the Canadian Global Affairs Institute podcast hosted by Dave Perry, to talk about the situation in the Persian Gulf: www.cgai.ca/dd_tensions_...

Good article by Robert Worth. Documents well how Reza Pahlavi is a weak and ineffective leader surrounded by fascists. Monarchists' consistent undermining of other opposition groups ultimately plays into the hands of the Islamic Republic. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Bonne analyse. Donald a réussi à donner confiance à l'Iran, en leur donnant l'occasion de prouver qu'ils sont capable de bloquer le Détroit d'Ormuz. Donc augmenter leur pouvoir dans la région.

Mon entrevue avec @france24.com ce matin: où en sommes-nous dans les négociations entre les États-Unis et l'Iran. J'explique pourquoi il n'y aura probablement pas de retour au statu quo d'avant la guerre dans le golfe Persique. www.france24.com/fr/vid%C3%A9...

New article with the Middle East Journal: how the post-October 7th, 2023 wars have reshaped Iran Houthi ties. Latest in my series of studies on the evolution of Iran-Houthi ties. Abstract below; article is firewalled so let me know if you want a PDF. muse.jhu.edu/pub/119/arti...

Another one of the speakers at our 2 June CIPS national security conference: Stefanie Beck, who recently retired as deputy minister of national defence. Full program and details to register to the event (in-person or online) below:

Very happy that the article @svh.bsky.social and I wrote is now available online in open access with Global Studies Quarterly @gsqjournal.bsky.social: The Absent are Always Wrong: The Friendship Motive and Canada’s Participation in NATO’s Operation in Libya academic.oup.com/isagsq/artic...

One of the speakers at our 2 June CIPS national security conference: David Vigneault, former Director of CSIS (the Canadian Security Intelligence Service). Full program and details to register to the event (in-person or online) below:

Canadian Press clip from my testimony to the House subcommittee on human rights yesterday: my research strongly suggests that transnational repression by Iran in Canada will intensify in 2026 because of ↗️ regime vulnerability &↗️diapsora mobilization: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihaj...

Very happy that this morning we - Larry Rubin, Norrin Ripsman, Steven Lobell & me - submitted the complete manuscript of our forthcoming book on grand strategies of Middle East states with Columbia University Press. Coming out soon(ish)!

Here we go

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM aujourd'hui pour parler du nouvel équilibre, instable et imprévisible, qui s'installe au Moyen-Orient - ni guerre, ni négociations sérieuses entre l'Iran et les États-Unis. (avec une mention rapide de l'équipe de hockey de mon fils) www.985fm.ca/audio/774231...

A privilege to testify Monday 4 May at 15h30 in front of the House of Commons Subcommittee on International Human Rights as part of its study of transnational repression - I'll talk about my research on the topic (for the book I am co-writing with @amaramarasingam.bsky.social).

Panel à 24 heures en 60 minutes à RDI hier soir, aux côtés de @justinmassie.bsky.social et Vincent Hugeux - on parle des derniers développements en Iran et de la comparution de Pete Hegseth au Congrès mercredi. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBNG...

National security conference at the University of Ottawa on 2 June, 13h-17h: Diversification of Canada's security and defence partnerships Speakers: -Keynote: Wayne Eyre (Former Chief of the Defence Staff) (others in next posts) Details: www.cips-cepi.ca/event/divers...

🚨🎙️A new episode of Secure Line is out! We chat with @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social and @thomasjuneau.bsky.social about their new article on Canada's intelligence reviewer, NSIRA. Are they guardians? Lemonsuckers? Read the article and listen to find out more: open.spotify.com/episode/3MQ0...

My comments to @ruthmichaelson.com from The Observer: past patterns strongly suggest that the Islamic Republic will intensify in 2026 its already high levels of transnational repression, targetting anti-regime dissidents abroad (in Canada and elsewhere). observer.co.uk/news/interna...

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM aujourd'hui: pas de guerre, pas de négociations sérieuses entre l'Iran et les États-Unis pour le moment. L'Iran peut continuer à absorber la douleur économique causée par la guerre, et perçoit que Trump sera plus impatient. www.985fm.ca/audio/773022...

I run Gulf/2000 (G2K), a long-standing email forum of 1,500+ experts/diplomats/journalists focused on the #Gulf, #Iran, and #Iraq. Always seeking more #Khaleeji views, so if you’re a Gulf expert, apply: groups.thesageinstitute.org/g/gulf2000 (professionals only; no students)

US-Iran dynamics remain, for now, in a volatile and fragile equilibrium: -both would prefer to avoid a return to open war

This is an unfortunate response. We have serious data to back up our analysis, and we analyze both the successes and failures of NSIRA. Our goal is to make intelligence review and accountability work better. And all you have are attacks on our personnal integrity? Did you even read our article?

The @theglobeandmail.com has a story on my article with @thomasjuneau.bsky.social on intelligence review in Canada. Second half gets to the heart of the issue: NSIRA has brought about many useful reforms & needed more than ever, but relationship needs a reset. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...

My points to @en.afp.com: -no, the Iranian regime isn't "seriously fractured" as Trump says -Of course "there are important and difficult debates within the Iranian leadership both on next steps and on succession issues" -But that's "the norm, not the exception" www.yahoo.com/news/article...

Trump extends the US-Iran ceasefire, initially meant to expire Wednesday, indefinitely. Some thoughts:

In this (open access) article, @thomasjuneau.bsky.social and I examine the impact of the new National Security and Intelligence Review Agency (NSIRA) on Canada's intelligence community. There has been a LOT of improvement, but significant challenges remain. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

🌐 🤝 Le CÉRIUM a offert une formation sur le Moyen-Orient, très ancrée dans l'actualité, aux diplomates & fonctionnaires, à l'Institut de la diplomatie du Qc, soutenu par le MRIF. Merci Laurence Deschamps-Laporte, Marie-Joëlle Zahar, Thomas Juneau et Hanieh Ziaei pour votre grande expertise !

My interview with the Vassy Kapelos show today, hosted by Tim Powers: update on the US-Iran talks on Saturday; where they might be heading; what Trump is trying to achieve with the blockade of Iran that started, sort of, today. www.iheart.com/podcast/962-...

Mon entrevue au 98.5FM avec Patrick Lagacé ce matin: pas de progrès samedi dans les négociations entre l'Iran et les États-Unis; que veut dire la menace de Trump d'imposer un blocus sur l'Iran; conséquences de l'incohérence dans la stratégie américaine. www.985fm.ca/audio/769715...

Waterloo Place, London

Mon entrevue au Téléjournal à Radio-Canada avec Céline Galipeau hier soir: est-ce que le cessez-le-feu entre l'Iran et les États-Unis va tenir? quels sont les obstacles principaux? quelles sont les conséquences pour la population iranienne? www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeZ8...