Beige Book word counts: uncertainty continues to fall as focus on tariffs declines, while labor markets offer a very mixed picture. Hiring was mentioned near the most frequently on record but layoff mentions also accelerating; that latter indicator has worked as a recession indicator historically.

Full endorsement of this take from an FX guy. Stablecoins are best thought of as derivatives on the dollar with massive embedded counterparty risk. I don't understand why the US policy establishment thinks these things will play a big role outside cross-border payments in developing countries.

The word for Trump Republican is: "Dixiecrat"

I was today years old when I learned this was specific to Canada.

The Kiwi in the coal mine.

Welp, the 'Office for Budget Responsibility' certainly didn't follow the nominative determinism thesis this morning.

Le Carré never dreamt anything quite this baroque: American diplomats coaching their Russian counterparts on how to manipulate a president who is already a Russian asset.

Lucky us. We have a thousand Howard Hughes now.

We haven’t had a meaningful bear market in nearly 20 years. You might think “surely, this must end soon.” Historically, you would be wrong about the *must* part. The length of a bull market doesn’t have to obey your feelings or mine. Chart @mattcerminaro.bsky.social via @bencarlson007.bsky.social

Market-implied odds on a December rate cut are following a drunkard's walk:

The governing rule of the American economy is that we can't have anything unless it's something a technology company needs.

Reading about AI being subverted by adversarial poetry and Russian drones' navigation systems jammed by Ukranian folk anthems, which suggests the opening future 'human rebels' scenes of Terminator may now have to be revised.

Stop it, screenwriters. You’re overdoing the metaphors.

Literally one of the worst occupational hazards associated with being an FX strategist: being asked to comment on how ‘Mary Kay for young men’ is doing.

At the rate we’re going, Trump is gonna announce he’s running on a Democratic ticket in 2028.

Found the culprit for the global selloff:

To paraphrase Norman Schwarzkopf, trading without El Erian is like going hunting without an accordion.

There are several Canadian housing price indicators available. Here is StatCan's, which is based on a survey of construction companies. It shows big and continuing declines since March 2022 in the CPI-adjusted prices of both land and the houses themselves. But there are wide geographical variations.

My guys at the Harvard Management Company absolutely never miss

Live view of current market action:

Sicario III: Day of the Estupido

How it feels when someone calls you a crypto sceptic

"It can't be a gold rush -- look at all these picks and shovels I'm selling!"

Bullwhip effects are still obscuring trade fundamentals. Yesterday’s delayed numbers showed the US imports plunging in August. But in the January to August period, goods volumes were up almost 9% over the same period last year, and the deficit was up almost 20%:

Evergreen.

Like most AI plays, it turned out to be a bunch of Wahlbergs in a trench coat.

The political equivalent of warehousing 2,700 tonnes of ammonium nitrate in the middle of Beirut.

BofA: As we approach the holiday season, spending per HH on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels. Total card spending per HH was up 1.6% y/y in the week ending Nov 15

Perhaps it’s more like a Russian Mavrodi*i-style Ponzi scheme: everyone knows it’s fake, but we participate anyway as an alternative to our socioeconomic vacuum. * en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_(Po...

Wrong headline. Since Trump's victory and therefore anticipation that tariffs were coming, average trade balance -90 billion USD. In the previous two years -72 billion USD. Looking at one month makes no sense. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/u...

Seems like an overreaction given that the October jobs report was going to land with some major flaws anyway, but market-implied odds on a December rate cut are now down to less than 1-in-3:

*taps the sign*

Rumours of the death of US exceptionalism have been greatly exaggerated. Net foreign flows into US equity markets reached roughly 1% of GDP in the four quarters ended in September, exceeding levels hit during the dotcom boom and ahead of the global financial crisis:

They’re betting the media and Democrats will focus on absolutely everything other than the money laundering and financial fraud. And they will win that bet.

I don’t want to seem out of touch but I don’t actually understand the economy anymore.

The real “K-shaped” economy:

Wow. Warsh trying to paint the Trump administration as a meritocracy.

The good sort of JOLTS:

Most dual-axis charts should be banned, but it does seem important to note that implied FX volatility has fallen in line with implied Treasury volatility over the last six months. If a deluge of economic data upsets fixed income markets in the coming weeks, it's fair to expect some FX turbulence.

Please grant me the sweet innocence of the reporter who thinks these people—who pose for photos on their jets, hire rappers for their birthday parties, and star in reality shows—are seeking “extreme privacy”.

Guess they're screwed if the other guys bring guns to the spear fight

Excellent from @brianromanchuk.bsky.social Oh No, Missing CPI Data open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...

Really thrilled to be featured in today's Odd Lots newsletter--thanks @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social! The implication: The U.S.'s sole growth sector is stuck between a prisoner's dilemma in pricing and a collateral crunch. bsky.app/profile/adva...

This creates a conflict between the two most important rules in this admin: number 1: never trade on anything said in the White House briefing room, and number 2: never trade on anything said by Kevin Hassett www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Here we go again.

Noahpinion: Why the U.S. cancellation of October CPI and jobs data proves the UK is a failed state

Welp, there’s one way to convince Americans the economy is fine: www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/w...