For people wanting a nerdy Christmas - an ebook resulting from a UK monetary policy roundtable (including a chapter from me) 2 topics: - what to do when the next large negative shock hits - how to communicate uncertainty niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...

Obviously, people will say this is Panglossian nonsense… .. I prefer, “factual” as.ft.com/r/f040c3e5-9... The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told

Doom? gloom? not so fast says @chrisgiles.ft.com www.ft.com/content/5aff...

Looking forward to this - join us thebudgetdecoded.live.ft.com

The OBR error was bad for all of us My column www.ft.com/content/b1af...

"Senior officials in the OBR must be thinking about their positions, since a worse release of data cannot be imagined." - @chrisgiles.ft.com here in the FT Live blog www.ft.com/content/d0a5...

It was a spend and tax Budget, but at Monetary Policy Radar, we don't think this makes it harder for the BoE to cut rates (the numbers are too small) on.ft.com/4onEnYK

New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL

My experience of jury service (when the courts were not a mess) led me to the same view My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards

Very irritating quiz I failed to get them all right

Very irritating quiz I failed to get them all right

Some 24 million US people are facing very large increases in their health insurance bills. My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation. on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics

We won a prize last night for best essay! Based on our work using the FT's archive to develop an economic sentiment index (what we have called the 'macro mood') Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq

Delighted to have won the Rybczynski Prize with @joelsuss.ft.com at the Society of Professional Economists for our essay on The value of text as data. More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq

Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...

Had great fun at @chathamhouse.org on a panel on independence of central banks www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4mn...

This seems even more pertinent today www.ft.com/content/99d2...

TBH Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement. That is a big “if” though.

Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...

4 questions: - Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)? - Should the Fed talk about driving in fog? - Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics? - Is the Eurozone in a good place? My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...

Great fun talking to Richard Thaler for the FT's Economics show - I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else) www.ft.com/content/c0f7...

Today seems a good day to repost this. It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*

US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation. My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...

I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not My column www.ft.com/content/f086...

Anyone who thinks cutting public spending is easy should read this article. Anyone who thinks increasing public investment will automatically increase growth should read this article. @warrenoates1.bsky.social

It's beautiful... ... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth www.ft.com/content/f086...

"Markets are no longer taking guidance from the Fed about low long-term interest rates. Instead, they have priced in significant term premia, representing their requirement for higher returns for holding long-term government debt."

I have fixed the rendering problem on this article (because there was just too much dammned data). It should load properly now www.ft.com/content/c396...

We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets ....but that's been waning ..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...

At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected www.ft.com/content/9985...

Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to... ... this is one of those times www.ft.com/content/7ad4...

A boring UK Budget interest rate primer.... ... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)

Enjoyable in the same way as a review that absolutely slates the food at an overpriced pretentious restaurant, from @chrisgiles.ft.com on.ft.com/3J8FRHN

Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to... ... this is one of those times www.ft.com/content/7ad4...

There is an unusual lack of any consensus globally on financial stability US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried

Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.

@chrisgiles.ft.com column is fact filled and well worth reading

Hang on ... you're using lots of inconsitent stuff here. What you want is the labour compensation share of GDP and it's been..... ..... flat So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting

This is what you requested... ... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)

A much needed corrective by @chrisgiles.ft.com to the "welfare is out of control" narrative, drawing on research by my colleague @benbgeiger.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/ee67...

There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system. Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts Spending is controlled, not spiralling Worklessness is near record lows My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...

👂🏼 POD TIME 👂🏼 Me and UK econ brainiac @chrisgiles.ft.com on THE BUDGET, featuring -What's in the box? 🎁 -the quest to be boring 🥱 -the long shadow of Liz Truss 🥬 -Traitors 💕 -banging on about Dubai ❌ Etc open.spotify.com/episode/71NB...

Looking forward to this - sign up

Calling @financialtimes.com subscribers: join us 23 October 1300 UK (1200 GMT) to discuss central banks, bonds, and the risks ahead. Register now and put your question to Lael Brainard, Fidelity's Salman Ahmed, @chrisgiles.ft.com, @katie0martin.ft.com, and @senojerialc.bsky.social. Go to ft.com/edge

My newsletter is on the paradox of the resilient and fragile global economy. Every year economic forecasts get more disappointing - yet the global economy hasn't deteriorated much How does that work? www.ft.com/content/ac92...

Calling all public finance experts... ... Am I right in thinking the Conservatives would need to give a bung to Scotland and Wales from abolishing Englandd and Wales residential stamp duty under Barnet consequentials?

Excellent overview of the backlash against QE globally... ... let's be clear though. The losses are everywhere, but unlike the UK which accounts for them upfront, they are generally brushed under a carpet elsewhere (they still exist though) on.ft.com/4mTPho6

There goes my long held view that cash government receipts were accurate because you just had to add some columns in a bank account on.ft.com/3J0Y6yE ONS revises down government borrowing estimates after data error

Food prices have risen a lot more than other stuff since Covid... My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation www.ft.com/content/de31...

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