Over on FT Premium, @chrisgiles.ft.com runs his slide rule against the Iran shock. Reckons maybe half a COVID. www.ft.com/content/b5f9...

Even after mitigations, the Iran war reduces global liquid fuel supplies by at least 10% (That's half the size of the worst lockdown months of Covid) And prices of crude oil do not reflect this yet My newsletter as.ft.com/r/a3833ead-4...

Compared with the European Central Bank, the Fed is acting like a rabbit stuck in the headlights... My column as.ft.com/r/07d73de8-0...

Oil prices and futures are currently similar to the ECB's adverse scenario - My newsletter explains how this fits into its three-pronged war strategy www.ft.com/content/5a15...

We still don't know how the War on Iran will work out. Central banks cannot just throw up their hands and curse their fate... they are players here My newsletter www.ft.com/content/950f...

What we know so far about the economic effects of the Gulf conflict (not much). And the markets are volatile My newsletter www.ft.com/content/a2c3...

Great day at the Engadin Ski Marathon.

This is just the most incredible chart... if the UK government implements current policies on taxes and benefits, public debt is stable (contrary to what the OBR always mistakenly tells us) My column as.ft.com/r/e69f1407-e...

My column Everyone loves progressive tax changes in theory but seem to hate them when they face the consequeuences One for UK graduates on Plan 2 loans to read... as.ft.com/r/d9c65a3c-1...

My column Everyone loves progressive tax changes in theory but seem to hate them when they face the consequeuences One for UK graduates on Plan 2 loans to read... as.ft.com/r/d9c65a3c-1...

It's tempting to say the US is following the Australian economic path...and inflation will follow labour market tightening Much too tempting My newsletter www.ft.com/content/1fab...

Why reliable data matters in one picture The UK's productivity performance is either: - still rubbish; or - improving greatly after a terrible spell You choose

Very much looking forward to getting back to my roots

Amid all the political volatility and fighting, want a good news UK story? The BoE has found a constructive way to have a bust up in public... it works www.ft.com/content/0786...

With Kevin Warsh at the Fed, will Trump do a Lula? Or will another scenario prevail? giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

New Fed chair - my column as.ft.com/r/14f402f0-6...

EVENT: Does the UK fiscal framework need a rethink? Thurs 19 Feb | 3pm – 5pm @benzaranko.bsky.social presents a major new report on the UK fiscal framework, with panelists @chrisgiles.ft.com, Victoria Clarke, Rupert Harrison & @helenmiller.bsky.social. 📅 Sign up here ⬇️ ifs.org.uk/events/does-...

When I last wrote about Kevin Warsh www.ft.com/content/cb2b...

As far as I could tell listening to the Supreme Court justices, it was a good day in court for the Fed's Lisa Cook and a bad one for Donald Trump... as.ft.com/r/6d1cf796-d...

In both the US and the UK there is a dispute about whether the country is about to hit net zero (migration)... .... this is really interesting from a forecasting and data quality perspective ... and one of economic consequences as.ft.com/r/a8f22043-1...

For people wanting a nerdy Christmas - an ebook resulting from a UK monetary policy roundtable (including a chapter from me) 2 topics: - what to do when the next large negative shock hits - how to communicate uncertainty niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/u...

Obviously, people will say this is Panglossian nonsense… .. I prefer, “factual” as.ft.com/r/f040c3e5-9... The UK economy is not nearly as bad as you’ve been told

Doom? gloom? not so fast says @chrisgiles.ft.com www.ft.com/content/5aff...

Looking forward to this - join us thebudgetdecoded.live.ft.com

The OBR error was bad for all of us My column www.ft.com/content/b1af...

"Senior officials in the OBR must be thinking about their positions, since a worse release of data cannot be imagined." - @chrisgiles.ft.com here in the FT Live blog www.ft.com/content/d0a5...

It was a spend and tax Budget, but at Monetary Policy Radar, we don't think this makes it harder for the BoE to cut rates (the numbers are too small) on.ft.com/4onEnYK

New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL

My experience of jury service (when the courts were not a mess) led me to the same view My view is anecdotal and I do think we got the verdict right in the two cases I sat in. We were dismissed in the third because a witness revealed the defendant’s criminal past. That was obvious from the guards

Very irritating quiz I failed to get them all right

Very irritating quiz I failed to get them all right

Some 24 million US people are facing very large increases in their health insurance bills. My newsletter examines how these price increases will show up in US inflation. on.ft.com/47MdE2Z The unhealthy state of US price statistics

We won a prize last night for best essay! Based on our work using the FT's archive to develop an economic sentiment index (what we have called the 'macro mood') Essay will be live shortly, amalgamation of a few articles. Some details here: on.ft.com/4n2TVBq

Delighted to have won the Rybczynski Prize with @joelsuss.ft.com at the Society of Professional Economists for our essay on The value of text as data. More here on.ft.com/4n2TVBq

Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...

Had great fun at @chathamhouse.org on a panel on independence of central banks www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4mn...

This seems even more pertinent today www.ft.com/content/99d2...

TBH Not a popular thing to say, but the big problem with the UK direct tax system is that it taxes middle incomes too low, if we move from an income tax rate/ NI switcheroo to lower allowances, that is an improvement. That is a big “if” though.

Ahead of the Budget there is quite a bit of misinformation So - as a primer - here is the truth about the UK economy in 2025 www.ft.com/content/99d2...

4 questions: - Should the BoE produce scenarios so close to the central forecast (see chart)? - Should the Fed talk about driving in fog? - Is the Fed alone in having monetary policy compromised by politics? - Is the Eurozone in a good place? My answers in my newsletter: www.ft.com/content/e933...

Great fun talking to Richard Thaler for the FT's Economics show - I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else) www.ft.com/content/c0f7...

Today seems a good day to repost this. It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*

US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation. My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...

I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not My column www.ft.com/content/f086...

Anyone who thinks cutting public spending is easy should read this article. Anyone who thinks increasing public investment will automatically increase growth should read this article. @warrenoates1.bsky.social

It's beautiful... ... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth www.ft.com/content/f086...

"Markets are no longer taking guidance from the Fed about low long-term interest rates. Instead, they have priced in significant term premia, representing their requirement for higher returns for holding long-term government debt."

I have fixed the rendering problem on this article (because there was just too much dammned data). It should load properly now www.ft.com/content/c396...

We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets ....but that's been waning ..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...

At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected www.ft.com/content/9985...