Great fun talking to Richard Thaler for the FT's Economics show - I ask hom how nudge theory might help Donald Trump understand that tariffs are bad economics (and a lot else) www.ft.com/content/c0f7...

Today seems a good day to repost this. It’s also a good day to remember you cannot do anything granular and sensible with Labour Force Survey data at the moment And the inactivity rate has plummeted since the data work for the Mayfield review was done*

US financial markets clearly do not see the Trump administration's challenges to the Fed have any effect on expected inflation. My newsletter asks why: www.ft.com/content/e2db...

I keep being told spending cuts are easy. Honest proposals such as those recently outlined by Policy Exchange show they are not My column www.ft.com/content/f086...

Anyone who thinks cutting public spending is easy should read this article. Anyone who thinks increasing public investment will automatically increase growth should read this article. @warrenoates1.bsky.social

It's beautiful... ... and a collosal waste of money that won't drive growth www.ft.com/content/f086...

"Markets are no longer taking guidance from the Fed about low long-term interest rates. Instead, they have priced in significant term premia, representing their requirement for higher returns for holding long-term government debt."

I have fixed the rendering problem on this article (because there was just too much dammned data). It should load properly now www.ft.com/content/c396...

We bang on about the Fed's influence and its importance in shaping markets ....but that's been waning ..10y Treasury yields used to move in a 3-day window around Fed meetings My newsletter examines why not any more www.ft.com/content/c396...

At the @financialtimes.com Monetary Policy Radar, we produce monthly scenarios for interest rates Options for more cuts have opened up as we expected www.ft.com/content/9985...

Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to... ... this is one of those times www.ft.com/content/7ad4...

A boring UK Budget interest rate primer.... ... don't get too hung up on forecasting the date for the window of gilt rates (my guess 10 working days before 17 October)

Enjoyable in the same way as a review that absolutely slates the food at an overpriced pretentious restaurant, from @chrisgiles.ft.com on.ft.com/3J8FRHN

Sometimes, as a public service, I read a book so you don't have to... ... this is one of those times www.ft.com/content/7ad4...

There is an unusual lack of any consensus globally on financial stability US is liberalising, BoE is conflicted, ECB is worried

Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.

@chrisgiles.ft.com column is fact filled and well worth reading

My column annoyed somebody this week

Hang on ... you're using lots of inconsitent stuff here. What you want is the labour compensation share of GDP and it's been..... ..... flat So pay and benefits in line broadly with GDP since Thatcher and it is all rather unexciting

This is what you requested... ... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)

A much needed corrective by @chrisgiles.ft.com to the "welfare is out of control" narrative, drawing on research by my colleague @benbgeiger.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/ee67...

There is no need for a moral panic about the UK's welfare system. Far from perfect but recent discourse is nuts Spending is controlled, not spiralling Worklessness is near record lows My column www.ft.com/content/ee67...

👂🏼 POD TIME 👂🏼 Me and UK econ brainiac @chrisgiles.ft.com on THE BUDGET, featuring -What's in the box? 🎁 -the quest to be boring 🥱 -the long shadow of Liz Truss 🥬 -Traitors 💕 -banging on about Dubai ❌ Etc open.spotify.com/episode/71NB...

Looking forward to this - sign up

Calling @financialtimes.com subscribers: join us 23 October 1300 UK (1200 GMT) to discuss central banks, bonds, and the risks ahead. Register now and put your question to Lael Brainard, Fidelity's Salman Ahmed, @chrisgiles.ft.com, @katie0martin.ft.com, and @senojerialc.bsky.social. Go to ft.com/edge

My newsletter is on the paradox of the resilient and fragile global economy. Every year economic forecasts get more disappointing - yet the global economy hasn't deteriorated much How does that work? www.ft.com/content/ac92...

Calling all public finance experts... ... Am I right in thinking the Conservatives would need to give a bung to Scotland and Wales from abolishing Englandd and Wales residential stamp duty under Barnet consequentials?

Excellent overview of the backlash against QE globally... ... let's be clear though. The losses are everywhere, but unlike the UK which accounts for them upfront, they are generally brushed under a carpet elsewhere (they still exist though) on.ft.com/4mTPho6

There goes my long held view that cash government receipts were accurate because you just had to add some columns in a bank account on.ft.com/3J0Y6yE ONS revises down government borrowing estimates after data error

Food prices have risen a lot more than other stuff since Covid... My newsletter asks whether they are now a leading indicator of inflation www.ft.com/content/de31...

evergreen post

The economics profession is almost united in calling for major reforms to UK property tax fast. They’re badly misguided Think twice before rushing to fix the UK’s broken property taxes on.ft.com/48FYT2s

Really excellent @chrisgiles.ft.com note on the miraculous state of Miranomics (the Central Banks newsletter is fantastic, you should subscribe if you have a premium FT sub) www.ft.com/content/807d...

This is how Trump pick for the Fed, Stephen Miran, gets from the current US interest rate to his preffered "appropriate" rate. Note how tax rises (tariffs) and tax cuts (Trump budget) both push the neutral rate down For more on this voodoo economics, read my newsletter www.ft.com/content/807d...

The biggest puzzle in the UK economy is why non pension savings are so high For decades no one could get Brits to save. Now they won’t stop. That this has happened without a recession shows UK economy under last and this govt is not the basket case I read about

Reeves is spot on here. And multiple fiscal events have contributed nothing to sensible UK budgetary policy

Festival of Economics 2025 ⬇️ Debate with economists and experts from around the world on the key economic questions of our time. 🎟️ TICKETS NOW AVAILABLE 🎟️

Join me, @katie0martin.ft.com, Lael Brainard and @senojerialc.bsky.social for this webinar for FT subscribers - sign up here ft.com/edge

A bit flabberghasted by the BoE allowing this chart crime (read footnote)

Full transcript of interview with Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee on FT Monetary Policy Radar www.ft.com/content/a473...

Fed's Goolsbee Warns Against Series Of Rate Cuts – FT on.ft.com/46DFpsK

At the FT's Monetary Policy Radar, we have updated our Federal Reserve rate scenarios, reflecting a new more dovish central bank and higher risks that inflation overshoots as monetary policy loosens (perhaps too much) www.ft.com/content/a735...

H-1B might help recent computer science graduates, but harms US companies more... ... but that ambiguity aside, Trump's economic policies attack US dynamism My column www.ft.com/content/fd49...

*EU PROPOSES BANNING RUSSIAN LNG A YEAR EARLIER FROM JAN 2027

Excellent summary about the QT state of play. And @chrisgiles.ft.com is still right about tiered reserve requirements. www.ft.com/content/544e...

With US inflation rising and jobs growth falling - what is the Fed to do? They'll cut rates... here is all the info you need from the @FT Monetary Policy Radar [FREE-TO-READ] www.ft.com/content/15bc...

The BLS revised down the number of US jobs in March 2025 by 911,000 today... But don't let that or the chart below make you think the US labour market is weak - it's still pretty warm. Falling jobs is a supply problem caused by policy, not demand weakness My newsletter www.ft.com/content/0a30...

The BLS revised down the number of US jobs in March 2025 by 911,000 today... But don't let that or the chart below make you think the US labour market is weak - it's still pretty warm. Falling jobs is a supply problem caused by policy, not demand weakness My newsletter www.ft.com/content/0a30...

This is an excellent & worrying interview w/ @petercontibrown.bsky.social. Fed independence is gone the day that Lisa Cook's 'firing' is un-stayed by a court; and once it is gone, it will not be coming back anytime soon, likely not before some inflation disaster hits. Everyone loses. Great job, USA.