*EU PROPOSES BANNING RUSSIAN LNG A YEAR EARLIER FROM JAN 2027

Excellent summary about the QT state of play. And @chrisgiles.ft.com is still right about tiered reserve requirements. www.ft.com/content/544e...

With US inflation rising and jobs growth falling - what is the Fed to do? They'll cut rates... here is all the info you need from the @FT Monetary Policy Radar [FREE-TO-READ] www.ft.com/content/15bc...

The BLS revised down the number of US jobs in March 2025 by 911,000 today... But don't let that or the chart below make you think the US labour market is weak - it's still pretty warm. Falling jobs is a supply problem caused by policy, not demand weakness My newsletter www.ft.com/content/0a30...

The BLS revised down the number of US jobs in March 2025 by 911,000 today... But don't let that or the chart below make you think the US labour market is weak - it's still pretty warm. Falling jobs is a supply problem caused by policy, not demand weakness My newsletter www.ft.com/content/0a30...

This is an excellent & worrying interview w/ @petercontibrown.bsky.social. Fed independence is gone the day that Lisa Cook's 'firing' is un-stayed by a court; and once it is gone, it will not be coming back anytime soon, likely not before some inflation disaster hits. Everyone loses. Great job, USA.

Podcast news: I took the reins of The Economics Show this week asking Whaton School prof Peter Conti-Brown "Fed independence - Why should we worry?" www.ft.com/content/be56...

My column Tin hat is on.... on.ft.com/41wuQ97

My Central bank newsletter is on the obvious - Lisa Cook's case and where it leaves the Fed.... .... not in a good place for many reasons - read it www.ft.com/content/883b...

Has anyone told those in the UK and France predicting an IMF bailout…er… That the fund doesn’t really have the readies these days if a large G7 economy needs a bailout

on.ft.com/3HRCt3e The Fed’s future hangs in balance after Trump’s assault

Want to know more about Lisa Cook being fired and why it’s so important Read our Monetary Policy Radar explainer on.ft.com/3JB1m3E Donald Trump moves to fire Lisa Cook. What’s next?

I wrote “How to Kill Fed independence” in February I didn’t expect it to be a ‘how to’ guide for the Trump administration. But it is on.ft.com/3ULKdqo How to kill the Fed’s independence

Here is an interesting question. The UK public finances are exactly. Track to meet the OBR’s deficit forecast for 2025-26 this financial year Why are we getting so much in a lather about a public finance disaster?

@chrisgiles.ft.com here on the risks of with loosening US monetary policy again before we understand the effects of Trump’s economic policies. "There is a good chance Powell or his successor will take the risk and live to regret it." www.ft.com/content/31f0...

EJ Anthony, Trump pick for new Bureau of Labor Statisitcs chief, claimed that the US had been in recession since 2022 after mismeasuring inflation. His “adjusted” series charted here against other volume measures that don’t rely on any inflation measure. Lamentable www.ft.com/content/cca1...

UK economy grew 1% in first half of 2025 US economy grew 0.6% I present these figures without comment

👂🏼🏖️PODS ARE BACK, BABY🏖️👂🏼 me and @chrisgiles.ft.com on: - nice stats and central bank you got there, shame if anything happened to them 😬 - US institutional resilience 🏦 - Mauritius 🦤 open.spotify.com/episode/6aCl...

What do we know about tariffs and US inflation so far? A newsletter heavy on charts like this and this www.ft.com/content/3015...

What if Trump picks an inflation nutter for Fed chair? @chrisgiles.ft.com asks the question on everyone's lips on.ft.com/47bLqPp

What happens if we get an inflation nutter as next Fed chair? Spoiler - we will.... www.ft.com/content/d908...

BoE is materially more hawkish and expects higher inflation than in May - we have changed our forecasts for rate cuts at Monetary Policy Radar on.ft.com/45tbX89

on.ft.com/4mD21A5 The kernels of truth in reports of a millionaires’ exodus

For more detail on BLS difficulties, read @senojerialc.bsky.social piece today on.ft.com/45kWUxn US labour data agency was teetering even before Donald Trump fired its chief

I see NIESR is talking today about a £41.2bn hole in the UK public finances Two things are newsworthy: a) NIESR is an outlier b) It’s last forecast (May) had a £60bn ish hole Does that make it good news for the chancellor today, then?

“Regaining the trust will be harder than giving it up" Investors warn Trump’s decision to sack the head of a top statistics agency will undermine investor confidence and hamper monetary policymaking By @kateduguid.bsky.social, James Fontanella-Khan and me www.ft.com/content/bec5...

Trump showed how not to fire a statistics chief... ... but if you think the immediate departure of the UK's statistics chief ahead of a very critical report was any better, think again My newsletter www.ft.com/content/6eb3...

I can’t believe I’m writing this, but most of the rest of that interview was reasonable and BLS has a record that is difficult to defend Yes- the humiliation is huge, but this is not a hill I would choose to die on More on this in a newsletter tomorrow

Others have noted that this means foreign-born people are LESS likely than UK-born people to be in prison. What I want to note is that The Times is now referring to foreign-born UK citizens as ‘foreigners’. This includes Boris Johnson, Sir Mo Farah, Emma Watson, Rory Stewart and little old me.

People pay tax on income Not sure this is news

I don’t see a high level of savings intentions as necessarily bad (as GfK the data source did). Real returns have been very high recently…

Sorry, not sorry, Don... Exporting countries are not paying for your tariffs They're an import tax paid by the US

With the latest “fall” in inactivity, you have to wonder whether most of the “rise” after covid was just the Labour Force Survey being rubbish.

We had the "Edinburgh reforms" of the financial sector in 2022 Now we've had the "Leeds reforms" of the financial sector in 2025 Which UK city will host the 2028 edition?

If you want to worry yourself about UK inflation - the FT core measure has not fallen since spring last year... ...driving that has been an increase in the breadth of price rises Offsetting this is definitive weakness in real indicators, especially the labour market...

Don’t believe the myth: Britain’s services have been hit hard by Brexit - on.ft.com/44WAeEv via @chrisgiles.ft.com I take some bleak comfort. The more we can see how bad Brexit was, the less of a mystery our growth failure is. Mysteries suck.

Heard the one about how UK services exports were booming after Brexit?? Another myth, sadly... My column www.ft.com/content/3e9d...

Heard the one about how UK services exports were booming after Brexit?? Another myth, sadly... My column www.ft.com/content/3e9d...

It turns out that a model based on @financialtimes.com journalism forecasts US inflation better than the Fed on.ft.com/4lp5y4O

It’s understandably bad because it’s working with the worst kids books ever as source material…

Casual inference pop quiz! Can you think of ANY confounders in this relationship? H/t @chloergibbs.bsky.social www.aei.org/wp-content/u...

How can central banks deliver difficult messages when politicians say they're "morons"? With difficulty... because people don't like listening to outsiders. Lagarde has more difficulty reaching Italians and Draghi (and vice versa) My @financialtimes.com newsletter ft.com/content/2082...

You know the central bank messenger matters when one is called a "complete wanker" live on TV Find out who and why in my newsletter on.ft.com/3Gqi44K Sign up ep.ft.com/newsletters/...

The people outraged at what the Labour government are trying to do, to fix a welfare system they inherited that clearly isn't working, should check out what the hell is going on in the USA

So, @claudia-sahm.bsky.social rule is now at lowest level since mid 2023... Unlike the US president, nothing in the data is screaming "cut rates" (recession probability on this measure when it reaches 0.5)

From FT Monetary Policy Radar, gilt yield spike not remotely sufficient for BoE action and suggest Reeves has more credibility than Labour (Although BoE might want to cut back on long gilt sales in September) on.ft.com/4nwyIQS

when gilts had a wobble at the start of this year, people who are often wrong on the internet wrongly blamed it on reeves/starmer rather than on US treasuries. today's more minor wobble is, i'm afraid, home-grown

@chrisgiles.ft.com on @ecb.europa.eu 's cartoon!!

For those asking about QT - remember BoE sales are v v small compared with government issuance - especially at maturities up to 20y All in my newsletter yesterday www.ft.com/content/8d89...