Things obviously don't look great for the economists, but at least they're going in the right direction. Another decade like the last and we might overtake the sports commentators

This is such a great piece

The Bank of England is consulting the public on which animals should go on our banknotes. Surely it has to be the European hedgehog, in honour of the chart below.

"Analysis conducted for Rachel de Souza, the children’s commissioner for England, found that 36% of children in secure settings had attended schools in the West Midlands and – astonishingly – 20% went to the same six schools." I had to read this several times - just a jaw-dropping statistic

This chart is bonkers. I think there's two possible explanations for why the UK runs so far ahead of other European countries – neither of them good. And the annual April price jump speaks to a wider issue. For more detail, see my column in this weekend's Observer. observer.co.uk/news/busines...

Resharing this, in case you spent yesterday enjoying the sunshine rather than reading long threads about productivity measurement

If my investigation of UK productivity stats doesn't float your boat, you might like this incredible investigation into whether the CIA poisoned Gordon Banks to spike England's chances at the 1970 World Cup (I was sceptical too, until I read it...) observer.co.uk/news/nationa...

Unemployment is up. Vacancies are down. The retail and hospitality sectors are shedding jobs. At the same time, there are encouraging signs of a productivity revival. Are these things related – and was this part of a deliberate government strategy all along? 🧵

This is interesting. David argues that: 1) political leadership risk has added a bit to UK gilt yields, but not that much (<10bps) 2) the increase in yields comes from the market expecting more borrowing, more fiscal stimulus and higher equilibrium interest rates, NOT expecting higher inflation

Enjoyed recording this with @rachelsylvester.bsky.social to discuss the battle of ideas within Labour - over the economy, the role of the state, and what needs to change. open.spotify.com/episode/6UDV...

IMF staff approve of the UK government's "prudent" approach towards energy support - so far. A cut/freeze in fuel duties (i.e. a broad based price subsidy, that wouldn't be time limited) would run contrary to their advice.

I've written about the battle of economic ideas within Labour for today's Observer 👇

My brief take on Burnham and the bond market observer.co.uk/news/capital...

A very convenient uptick in "unreported removals" (people being taken off the waiting list without being treated, because e.g. they've died or gone private) helped the NHS meet its waiting time targets

Lots of good news stories like this at present! The UK's relative strength in terms of venture capital investment, and how to build on it, probably ought to feature more heavily in the economic debate (might be easier when the politics calms down)

Andy's scenarios point is interesting. Scrapping the triple lock doesn't save much in expectation, because the forecast is always for low/stable inflation (one reason it doesn't get scrapped). But it might save a fortune ex post, if inflation spikes to 10%. Scenarios would reflect that better.

Lots of news today, obviously. But if you want to take a break from the politics, you might like my piece from the weekend on the biggest policy question of them all: how do we get economic growth? observer.co.uk/news/capital...

I love this piece by @chrisdillow.bsky.social on policy-making as gardening. I thought about borrowing the metaphor for a piece I'm writing this weekend on UK growth policy, but decided I didn't have enough to add on the original. Highly recommended. chrisdillow.substack.com/p/policy-mak...

This policy, the replies to this, Keir Starmer’s ‘the petrol retailers are being naughty’ statement, Ed Davey’s fuel duty tax cut, Kemi Badenoch’s fuel duty tax cut, John Swinney’s price controls…is there anyone in British politics who understands “the Iran war means we have less stuff”?

Headline measures of wealth inequality haven't meaningfully changed since the 1980s, but it's harder to work and save your way up the ladder than it used to be. Meanwhile, inheritances are becoming ever more important. Me for this weekend's Observer: observer.co.uk/news/capital...

Another fun one in this genre: Between November and March, the ONS revised up its estimated value of public sector land by £200 billion (!). Public sector net worth (one measure of the strength of the government balance sheet) immediately improved by 6-7ppt of GDP.

Some big changes are afoot in the government bond market, and the Bank of England is sufficiently worried to be flagging the risks they pose to the stability of the financial system. This is about who owns our national debt, who’s trading it, and how. 🧵

@robin-j-brooks.bsky.social argues that UK yields only look uncomfortably high relative to other major economies because central banks elsewhere (Japan, the Eurozone) intervene to artificially cap yields. The result in Japan is a weakening currency. The pound, in contrast, is stable.

In this weekend's Observer, I ask: why always us? How come whenever there's a global economic shock, the UK always seems to find be particularly exposed? observer.co.uk/news/busines...

New from the IMF: "When energy prices rise and people and businesses feel the pain, policymakers feel pressure to act. The temptation is to simply stop prices from rising, using price caps, universal rebates, or fuel tax cuts. These are unwise measures."

One recurring theme in Washington this week: There's a disconnect between market types, who are relaxed about the economic impacts of the war and pricing in a quick resolution, and geopolitical/energy analysts, who are much more worried about lasting disruption.

For my first column as Observer economics editor, I've written about the folly of calling for blanket price subsidies during a global energy shortage. It doesn't seem to be online so if you want to read in full, you'll have to go out and buy a physical paper, like in the good old days.

This is quite interesting. US workers lead in generative AI adoption. But there are big differences within Europe also, with the UK in second place. (via CEPR, link below)

Some highly questionable maths in Reform UK's Scottish election manifesto has got David rather cross

Some personal/professional news: today is my last day at the IFS. There’s nowhere else I’d rather have spent the last nine years and leaving is such a wrench. But it’s time for something new, and I’m excited to be joining The Observer as Economics Editor from 7 April.

Have you ever found yourself wondering how much the government spends on transport investment in the North East? And wishing you could compare it to how much is spent in London not just in £ per person, but as a % of regional GDP? Of course you have. This tool is for you.

A year ago we published @theifs.bsky.social analysis of whether and how the govt could hit their 18 week waiting time target. Performance has improved over the last year, and lies between our scenarios. Things could change, but it still doesn't look like we are on track for 92% by 2029

I wrote for yesterday's @theobserveruk.bsky.social about what's happening to unemployment, and the important debate about where it's going next. observer.co.uk/news/nationa...

NEW PODCAST: The Spring Forecast explained @helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @beeboileau.bsky.social discuss the Spring Forecast. We cover rising energy prices and what the big forecast uncertainties mean for government spending plans. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/spr...

This is true! Borrowing has already come down substantially from last year, and that often gets missed. But the question I'm raising here is whether that can be sustained, given the various policy and forecasting assumptions - I'd argue shaky assumptions - future plans are predicated on.

The government plans to reduce government borrowing by 2.5% of GDP over the next four years – a sizeable fiscal consolidation. The question is now one of delivery. And past experience clearly shows that promising lower borrowing is easier than delivering lower borrowing.

One thought on Rachel Reeves' speech yesterday. If I were a Chancellor about to preside over a spike in inflation caused by a foreign war, I might have thought twice about attacking my predecessor for presiding over a spike in inflation caused by a foreign war. Surely a hostage to fortune.

NEW: “Today’s Spring Forecast did what it said on the tin… there was blissfully little speculation, and no tweaking tax or spending policies on the day. To her credit, she stayed her hand.” – @helenmiller.bsky.social 📗Read our response to the Spring Forecast here: ifs.org.uk/articles/spr...

The OBR's central unemployment scenario has it rising to a little over 5 per cent then falling swiftly back. Bottom left panel has a scenario where (due to either technological displacement or higher labour costs) there's a structural increase in unemployment. One to keep an eye on in months ahead.

OBR highlighting and subtly questioning the deliverability of the government's spending assumptions. A tight envelope and promises elsewhere would see "other" budgets cut by 4.4% per year after 2028/29. The 2027 Spending Review is where these assumptions collide with reality.

OBR have revised down their forecast for net migration but this is *entirely* due to an upwards revision in the number of outwards migration by UK nationals. Still potential for another downwards shift later in the year, if the inwards migration number also drops.

Borrowing outlook is effectively unchanged - though OBR forecasts have clearly been overtaken by events and sharp market movements. If nothing else, this shows why finely calibrating policy changes in response to minor forecast changes is stupid. Reeves deserves credit for making this a non-event.

One of the things I wanted to do with my recent fiscal rules paper was start a debate. This stuff is arcane but really important. So, I'm pleased that it's been discussed by Ed Balls and George Osborne on their podcast (even if they weren't terribly nice about it). open.spotify.com/episode/2gOV...

There are lots of student loan proposals flying around. This stuff is complicated and contentious. Fortunately my colleague Kate Ogden has stepped in as the fifth emergency service, to explain what these proposals mean, who would win/lose, and how much they'd cost.

Less than a week left to apply for this, the most exciting job in UK fiscal policy available right now. (Chair of the OBR is a close second). app.beapplied.com/apply/4t6eys...

In a busy news week, I've written about the story on everybody's lips for today's @theobserveruk.bsky.social: the problems with the UK's obsession with "fiscal headroom" and the need to consider alternatives to pass-fail fiscal rules. observer.co.uk/news/busines...

Some positive UK public finance news 👇 It now looks like borrowing for 2025/26 will come in not just lower than 2024/25, but lower than was forecast in November. The uptick in income tax receipts (including bumper January self-assessment returns) is a good sign and welcome news for the Chancellor.

NEW PODCAST: How to fix the fiscal rules @helenmiller.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social examine our current UK fiscal framework and its issues, and explore an alternative approach using a traffic-light style system. 🎧️ Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Pleased to see this written up by the FT, and to see my driving analogy make the cut. We need to look beyond just the fiscal speedometer. www.ft.com/content/c88b...