NEW: How could the Chancellor raise more tax? In our live podcast event @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by Stuart Adam and @danneidle.bsky.social to explore the choices facing the Rachel Reeves ahead of the upcoming budget. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

NEW: #IFSWorkingPaper: Intimate partner violence and children's human capital 📗 Read Dan Anderberg, Gloria Moroni and Alexander Vickery's new paper on the effects of intimate partner violence on children's cognitive and emotional development here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

NEW PODCAST: How to fix VAT Why is chocolate-covered shortbread taxed differently from plain? In the final episode of our tax mini-series, we unpack what makes the UK’s VAT system so complex, inefficient and unfair. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

"I hope we see some reform…Maybe they'll only be the first steps, but I'd like to look at the Budget and say I can see why these things make the tax system better, and at least don't make them worse." @helenmiller.bsky.social on @newsagents.bsky.social yesterday www.globalplayer.com/podcasts/epi...

'Rachel Reeves has put 51 miles worth of petrol in her car and has to go 50 miles' In our 'IFS Zooms In' episode on options for the upcoming budget, @benzaranko.bsky.social discusses the importance of policy stability for economic growth. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/bud...

'There really is a cost to this approach of limping budget to budget' @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by @benzaranko.bsky.social and Carl Emmerson to assess the public finances ahead of the November budget on the latest episode of our podcast. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/bud...

📊#IFSSatStat: Until 2022, Chancellors typically left around 1% of annual GDP as headroom against their fiscal rules, roughly £32 billion in the current target year. Since then, margins have been narrower, with recent Chancellors routinely leaving less than 0.5% of GDP.

NEW PODCAST: How to fix property taxes @helenmiller.bsky.social, Stuart Adam and @benzaranko.bsky.social explore how council tax, stamp duty and other property taxes work in the UK, what’s gone wrong, and how they could be made fairer and more efficient. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Join our CIOT/IFS debate on reforming the taxation of housing with Stuart Adam, Caroline Fleet, John Muellbauer, @guardianheather.bsky.social & Nichola Ross Martin. Thurs 6 November | 18:30 – 20:00 | 10-11 Carlton House Terrace, London and online 📅 Sign up here: ifs.org.uk/events/cioti...

NEW: New data show that official statistics have overcounted the number of self-employed workers in the UK for decades. @helenmiller.bsky.social, Isaac Delestre, Kate Smith and @bojs.bsky.social’s new report uses newly available data to fill the gap in the statistical record:

We're giving the people what they want: more than an hour of content about how we could better tax wealth in the UK. Do listen/watch and let us know what you think.

Listen to IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social on the 'Tax Conundrum', a three-part series from @benchu.bsky.social on why the UK tax system has become such a mess and what difference that makes: ⬇️

EVENT: IFS Summer Student recruitment event 2025 Monday 17 November | 5pm – 6pm | Online via Zoom Find out what it's like to be an IFS Summer Student and ask your questions at our upcoming online recruitment event. ➡️ Sign up to attend here: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-r...

Delighted that our @theifs.bsky.social research on Sure Start has been shortlisted for the ONS Research Excellence Awards! Do check out our work (and the other amazing projects) and cast your vote in the People's Choice awards! tinyurl.com/3kra3trj

Rachel Reeves is about to get bitten by the productivity hedgehog. A bigger-than-expected OBR downgrade means a bigger-than-expected consolidation will be needed to meet the fiscal rules. Makes it harder to honour manifesto tax promises, and harder to build in more ‘headroom’.

NEW PODCAST: How to fix wealth taxes @helenmiller.bsky.social, Stuart Adam and @benzaranko.bsky.social unpack how the UK taxes savings, capital gains and wealth, and ask what a fair, efficient system would look like, in our new IFS Zooms In episode. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Applications are now open to join the IFS in summer 2026 as part of our paid Summer Student programme! ➡️ Find out more and apply here by 11pm, Friday 16 Jan 2026: app.beapplied.com/apply/xkr9pu...

I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about Kemi Badenoch's "golden economic rule" and Nigel Farage's promise that a Reform government would "never borrow to spend". I doubt either policy would survive contact with the real world. You can read here: observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

The Conservatives’ “golden economic rule” requires that for every pound of spending cuts, at least half goes towards reducing borrowing. That’s an overly rigid policy rule. I can also imagine scenarios where it makes tax rises more likely - which presumably wasn't the intention.

📊 #IFSSatStat: The OBR’s productivity forecast at the Budget will be a major driver of the fiscal outlook. Since 2010, however, those forecasts have been too optimistic – a downgrade is widely expected.

NEW: #IFSWorkingPaper: Income inequality and the role of the state in Latin America: an overview 📗 Read @richardblundell.bsky.social, Mariano Bosch, Nora Lustig and Marcela Melendez's new paper here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Not the world's most sophisticated piece of analysis, but extrapolating lacklustre NHS improvements since last year's election suggests the government's waiting time targets won't be met. (Max wants me to point out that he has also done some sophisticated analysis ifs.org.uk/publications...)

Elective waiting times in the NHS have improved since Labour came to office, but relatively slowly. Improvements in 18 week performance will have to pick up speed considerably if the government are to hit their headline NHS target by the end of the parliament.

Last chance to apply! 📊 Applications to join IFS as a Research Economist close this weekend – find out more about the role and apply here by 11pm on Sunday 26 October: app.beapplied.com/apply/tgjfew...

IFS Zooms In Live: How could the Chancellor raise more tax? Tues 4 November | 6:30pm – 8pm | British Library Knowledge Centre 🎤 Join us for our special in-person recording of our podcast with @helenmiller.bsky.social, @danneidle.bsky.social & Stuart Adam. Sign up here: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-z...

Some big reductions in gilt yields in recent days. It's unclear whether the OBR have already closed their forecast window or not, and so unclear whether it will feed directly into Budget calculations, but it's good news for the Chancellor regardless.

NEW: How has the two-child limit affected child poverty and other outcomes? And what options does the government have for reforming it? 📗 Ahead of next month’s Budget and the upcoming child poverty strategy, Tom Waters and Tom Wernham compare the options [THREAD]:

LIVE NOW: Should the government remove the two-child limit? Our IFS Green Budget event on the latest trends on child poverty and the effects of the two-child limit starts now. ❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/8cvEEo... 🖥️ Watch here: www.youtube.com/live/DyqrpiW...

NEW: Options for reforming the two-child limit. How has the two-child limit affected child poverty and other outcomes? What options for altering the policy does the government have? 📖 Read the latest IFS Green Budget comment - funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org - here: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...

Today’s inflation figure of 3.8% will be used for most benefit uprating next April. But state pension will rise in line with triple lock – based on earnings growth of 4.8%. Below is my @theifs.bsky.social piece on issues around the triple lock and what we think is a better alternative.

NEW: The Draft Welsh Budget, if passed in its current form, would increase risks to public services and the public finances. David Phillips gives evidence to the Senedd this morning – read his briefing on the Draft Welsh Budget here: ifs.org.uk/articles/dra...

NEW PODCAST: How to fix income tax @helenmiller.bsky.social, Stuart Adam and @benzaranko.bsky.social explore all things income taxes in the first episode of our new mini-series on how to fix the UK's tax system. 🎧 Listen to the episode here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

NEW: What are the effects of the ‘triple lock’ and how could it be reformed? Ahead of new inflation figures tomorrow, @heidikarj.bsky.social explains the nature of the state pension 'triple lock' and why reform is needed. 📗 Read the briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/wha...

Today’s ONS figures show that over the first half of the year, government borrowing has exceeded the OBR’s March forecast. This is despite the cash size of the economy exceeding expectations as inflation has remained high – higher inflation hasn’t yet led to higher tax receipts.

How could we reform the 2-child limit? @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by Tom Waters to assess options for reforming the two child limit on the latest episode of our podcast 'IFS Zooms In'. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sho...

📊 #IFSSatStat: The government is forecast to spend £111 billion (3.7% of GDP) on debt interest payments this year, £64 billion higher than was forecast just three years ago. For context, £64 billion is roughly equal to the day-to-day core schools budget.

'It looks like getting rid of the 2 child limit might reduce child poverty by about half a million kids or so' @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by Tom Waters on the latest episode our podcast, IFS Zooms In, on the two-child limit. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sho...

NEW PODCAST: The Budget Dilemma: Tax rises or spending cuts? This week on the 'IFS Zooms In' @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by Carl Emmerson and @benzaranko.bsky.social to discuss options for the Chancellor ahead of the upcoming budget. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/bud...

NEW: IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social and BBC @faisalislam.bsky.social talk to BBC Newscast about taxes, the public finances and reviving old movies. 📺 Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPjE...

How much support are families getting for their kids? @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by Tom Waters to explain the current system of benefits for parents on the latest episode of the IFS Zooms In on the two-child limit. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sho...

What is the 2-child limit? @helenmiller.bsky.social is joined by Tom Waters to explain the two-child limit on the latest episode our podcast, IFS Zooms In. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/sho...

If there's one key message for the Chancellor from our analysis published today, it's this: Doing a bigger package to increase ‘headroom’ wouldn’t be costless – but nor is limping from one forecast to the next under constant speculation that policy will be tightened again.

As the Autumn Budget looms, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a daunting fiscal balancing act. Today's Green Budget from @theifs.bsky.social adds its own expert contribution to the debate and includes a foreword from our Chief Executive @gavin-kelly.bsky.social. Read it here: bit.ly/3WEZwSF

LIVE NOW: IFS Green Budget 2025 We present on the state of the UK economy and the government’s fiscal position with panelists Jonathan Haskel and Andy King, chaired by @helenmiller.bsky.social. 🖥️ Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nb3-... ❓ Ask questions here: app.sli.do/event/3qXqva...

With a fiscal “groundhog day” of discussions about how the Chancellor could keep meeting her fiscal rules for the second time this year, we were wondering: what are the chances we could be doing all this again in Spring? The answer: pretty high. Particularly nerdy thread:

Crucial scene-setting by @theifs.bsky.social in its Green Budget which @nuffieldfoundation.org is pleased to support.

NEW: The Chancellor almost certainly has a fiscal repair job on her hands at next month’s Budget. But doing the bare minimum risks another fiscal groundhog day next year. 🧵 THREAD on our new IFS Green Budget's findings on the UK's economic outlook and fiscal situation:

TOMORROW: IFS Green Budget 2025 launch Thurs 16 October | 09:30 - 11:15 | Online 📺 Sign up to watch the livestream of our IFS Green Budget event, funded by Barclays & @nuffieldfoundation.org here: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-g...

LIVE NOW: @helenmiller.bsky.social gives evidence to the Treasury Select Committee on the tax options available to the Chancellor. 🖥️ Watch live here: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

IFS Director @helenmiller.bsky.social will be giving evidence to the Treasury Select Committee this morning on the Chancellor’s tax options alongside @danneidle.bsky.social, @arunadvani.bsky.social and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social. 🖥️ Watch from 10am here: parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...