Wonderful paper to read on a Saturday morning.

Massive congrats to @ckfarquharson.bsky.social and her @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. They have put so much time and thought into their evaluation of sure start and it’s multiple effects over time. The quality and impact of their work reflects this. 👏

On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone. Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028 1. Slow the growth in SEND spending 2. Top up the schools budget 3. Reduce mainstream school budgets 🧵

Always a pleasure to come to the #r4today studio. This time to talk about the challenges facing the government on special educational needs spending.

Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind. From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year. @theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025

Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26 That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected @theifs.bsky.social

Best followed up with this FT podcast with @timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households www.ft.com/content/33d7...

📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029 This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]

Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]

Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation) The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me qualifications.wales/news-views/f...

Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6] ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

Faced with aggressive cancer, my friend decided to end his life in Switzerland almost exactly a year ago I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK These are his words. He always wrote beautifully

Surprise, surprise @samfr.bsky.social The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago

What does £4.5 billion extra for schools in England mean? My guess is that this is a real-terms freeze in the core schools budget plus some extra money for free school meals This thread explains why 🧵[1/6] observer.co.uk/news/nationa... @theifs.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org

Schools can probably afford 2% teacher pay rises from within existing budgets Govt proposals for 2.8% assumed schools could make efficiency savings of £300m Going to 4% would add a further £400m to school costs on top of that

The government's borrowing rule (the ‘stability rule’) is being met by £9.9 billion in 2029/30, the *exact* same amount as last October. Nothing special about that number. Implies that policy is being fine-tuned in pursuit of an arbitrary number for ‘fiscal headroom’. Chasing the model.

I would strongly recommend this documentary about Jasmine Paris. It’s just a fantastic account of one person’s battle to achieve the seemingly impossible. And the joys of running in the wilderness Would even recommend to non-runners! youtu.be/PgTEsybXw-4?...

I'm SOOO excited about the tour coming to Wales, I'd like to propose a route: Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay

Such an eloquent and moving account by a young person on the immense challenges of homelessness as a child Llongyfarchiadau Mia 👏 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Very proud that my eye-catching headline from this podcast is: "The truth is probably a bit more boring" Thoroughly enjoyable chat with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social & @missmc.bsky.social

With the schools bill in the news, we cut through the noise on @theifs.bsky.social podcast - School performance in England has been ok for last 15 years, but lots of inequalities - Main effect will be making all schools follow new national curriculum - Uncertainty on what happens to failing schools

Wide-ranging podcast, this one. Super edu nerd @lukesibieta.bsky.social and I geek out on everything from breakfast clubs, to Ofsted, to baby doom, including an awkward stat about academies at the end & a desperate plea from me on housing and dentistry.

It was a delight to discuss schools with @missmc.bsky.social & @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social on @theifs.bsky.social zooms in podcast. I'm just disappointed we didn't manage to quite segway into a chat about Rab Butler and the 1944 act

Worth noting that these news stories on mobile phones are based on CORRELATIONS between school policy & mental health This evidence cannot be used to conclude that school phone bans do or do not causally affect grades or health. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Today is the 50th anniversary of the famous Köln concert when Keith Jarrett played the unplayable piano to deliver one of the most amazing and unique piano performances of all time I’ll be listening tonight with a glass of wine, I recommend you do too open.spotify.com/album/0I8vpS...

An authoritative and depressing blog on the economic cost of gun violence in US schools. I worry about my kids in the UK for various reasons. I’m so glad I don’t have to worry about guns. Great work @matthewakraft.bsky.social 👏

The annual @theifs.bsky.social report on education spending is out. I've always found it incredibly useful so really pleased that @nuffieldfoundation.org fund it. Here's spending by educational stage over the last 35 years. So many policy stories in a single chart. ifs.org.uk/publications...

NEW: Schools are likely to face a new round of belt tightening in this year’s spending review Our new annual report on education spending in England, funded by @NuffieldFound, analyses the trade-offs facing the government on school spending [THREAD: 1/6]

Per-student teaching resources for undergraduates in England have been eroded in real-terms since 2012 due to successive freezes in tuition fees. In November, the government announced fees would rise with inflation in 2025 – for the first time since 2017. THREAD [1/6]

I am always super proud of this graph showing spending per pupil across different stages of education in England over time (from our latest annual report on education spending) It shows a massive amount of information of how public spending priorities have changed over time

To govern is to choose, so what choices face the government in the upcoming 2025 spending review? A thread based on our new @theifs.bsky.social annual report on education spending in England ifs.org.uk/publications... [1/6]

EVENT: Education in the 2025 Spending Review: impossible choices? Join our launch of the IFS Annual Report on Education Spending in England, funded by the @nuffieldfoundation.org. 10:30 -12:00 | Wed 8 January | online

NEW: Childcare funding rates largely protected in real terms - with a big uplift for disadvantage premium @ckfarquharson.bsky.social and Elaine Drayton respond to yesterday's government announcement of a £2bn injection of funding into England’s early years system. ifs.org.uk/articles/chi...

You can also use our new online app to explore differences in identified special educational needs, funding, spending and deficits across LAs and over time. I was drawn to two comparisons in particular (see below)

According to govt estimates, annual spending on high needs will rise by £2-3bn by 2027 Even with the £1bn in the budget, this could easily take local authority high-needs deficits up to the absurd level £8bn Without major reform, this should be the default assumption in the public finances

Local authority spending on fees for independent special schools has gone by at least £1bn in real-terms since 2015, and is now nearly £2bn in total Average fees are about £61,000 per place This partly reflects a lack of capacity in state-funded special schools (and in mainstream schools)

There has been a whopping £4bn or 60% rise in funding since 2015. But even this has still not been sufficient to keep pace with rising needs Because of statutory obligations, councils have to spend even more and run huge deficits as a result

There have been rapid rises in the number of pupils with EHCPs (the highest levels of needs). The large rises in Autism Spectrum Disorders, ADHD & mental health needs all appear to be global phenomena, reflecting both higher need & better identification. They are NOT specific to England

A thread on the main findings from our new @theifs.bsky.social report on special educational needs funding in England. I'll try to bring out some of the most important findings in the next few post The main message is that the system is broken and needs urgent reform

How on earth is Jasmin not on the list????

A few thoughts on the government’s announcement on SEND capital funding. The system is a mess, it’s great to have a long-term plan and capital will help, but the capital budget is really stretched and key money for staffing and day-to-day costs is not there yet 🧵 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

C’mon Cymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿⚽️!!!

Excellent article by @annacmcshane.bsky.social on breakfast clubs and effective delivery more generally

Great crowd for Wales v Ireland euros playoff C’mon Cymru! 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 *Irish equaliser not shown 🇮🇪😬

💸 Schools’ rising costs will likely outstrip extra funding allocated at the budget, new analysis suggests, after last year’s pay rise eats up more than half of the additional cash

Today, the govt has confirmed National Funding Formula allocations for schools in England An extra £2.3bn was announced in the Autumn Budget. About £1bn is going on high needs. The rest is going on mainstream schools, but the funding rises probably won't cover schools expected costs next year 🧵