Delights to appear on BBC Walescast today to talk about the pressures on additional learning needs in Wales, the Welsh budget and comparisons with SEND in England @theifs.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Delighted to appear on this week’s episode of More or Less to talk about teacher pay @theifs.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

#OTD #RedDevils #Belgium🇧🇪

📗 Read @lukesibieta.bsky.social's response to this week's announcements on teacher pay, pensions and school funding: ifs.org.uk/articles/ifs...

📉 #IFSSatStat: By 2027, experienced teachers' pay is likely to be around 7% lower in real terms than in 2010, even after recent and planned increases. Teacher starting salaries have recovered to their 2010 level, but pay for more experienced teachers remains lower in real terms.

Looking forward to speaking to #r4today at 0750 to talk about teacher pay and school funding, which I wrote about yesterday.

What does today's announcement on teacher pay and pensions mean for school budgets? Some initial @theifs.bsky.social thoughts - with a graph and fun with pensions @nuffieldfoundation.org ifs.org.uk/articles/ifs...

Always nice to get birthday presents that show people know you 🤩 Can’t wait to read this. Katja Hoyer is such a talented historian and writer.

Short story about statistical modeling without causal inference gone badly wrong. Just head on the news that preschoolers play 15 minutes less on rainy days. The reporting stressed that the research was "associational" and therefore couldn't tell us why. Huh? 1/

Heard from a reliable source that Mythos, a system capable of cracking any software system, stealing the nuclear codes and watching Putin while he takes a shower, is still reduced to a blubbering, incontinent wreck by the website of our Office for National Statistics, and this makes me damned proud

Super interesting paper

Stunning, evocative writing 1994 and 1998 for me. Hagi, Stoichkov, Bergkamp, Zidane, Suker. But watching France win the World Cup with my dad when he was still him 😭🇫🇷

Wonderful thread from @danneidle.bsky.social on the implications of taxing “other people”

I rarely (if ever) recommend music here. But Manchester Orchestra’s new live album from Union Chapel is simply amazing Soothing and pristine sound combined with plaintive lyrics. Just beautiful. open.spotify.com/album/1H3mQK...

The brooding vastness of Ogmore by sea

The answer is no. There is no way that smartphones are responsible for a 40% decline in worldwide fertility rate. This is what the graph looks like from 1970 to the present (from @ourworldindata.org).

I usually stick to economics and schools, but this podcast series is exceptional The raw honesty from the girls is amazing www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/serie...

Total school funding was held flat in real-terms in last years spending review Rising costs mean schools can probably only an afford a teacher pay rise of 1.3% in 2026 Matching current inflation of 3.4% would cost schools an extra £700 million per year www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

With many challenges facing schools in Wales, it is encouraging to see wide recognition of these problems across the recent manifestos for the Welsh elections There is also quite a bit of agreement on solutions, including between Plaid and Reform This all bodes well for future reforms

The performance of the education system is holding Wales back The next Welsh govt could deliver real improvements by: high, clear expectations for all, good use of data & evidence, getting more kids back into education See my ✍️ for @nation.cymru @theifs.bsky.social nation.cymru/opinion/wels...

NEW: The government has today proposed a major set of reforms to special needs and educational needs and disabilities in England, with more funding and support provided upfront through mainstream schools. ⬇️ Read @lukesibieta.bsky.social's immediate response here: ifs.org.uk/articles/gov...

Wonderful paper to read on a Saturday morning.

Massive congrats to @ckfarquharson.bsky.social and her @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. They have put so much time and thought into their evaluation of sure start and it’s multiple effects over time. The quality and impact of their work reflects this. 👏

On Wednesday, we learned that SEND spending is growing much faster than expected, with 14% real-terms growth this year alone. Govt now has 3 options to close an expected £6bn funding gap in 2028 1. Slow the growth in SEND spending 2. Top up the schools budget 3. Reduce mainstream school budgets 🧵

Always a pleasure to come to the #r4today studio. This time to talk about the challenges facing the government on special educational needs spending.

Good news: We now have a forecast for SEND spending, rather than flying blind. From 2028, central gov't will fund all SEND provision from within departmental spending. Without reform or spending top-ups, that's a £6bn pressure on budgets that year. @theifs.bsky.social #Budget2025

Based on provisional outturns, the OBR expects spending on SEND will grow by over £2 billion or 17% in cash-terms in 2025-26 That is HUGE growth and about double what we expected @theifs.bsky.social

Best followed up with this FT podcast with @timleunig.bsky.social who has a nice example of why zero-rating things like food and children's clothing isn't a particularly effective way of supporting poorer households www.ft.com/content/33d7...

📗 Read @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, on support for children with disabilities and special educational needs here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

Our @theifs.bsky.social projections show a £3 billion real-terms rise in high needs spending between now and 2029 This is about £600m higher than previous forecasts quoted by the NAO If delivered, current fiscal plans then imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil [1/3]

Today, we published a new @theifs.bsky.social Green Budget chapter on children with special educational needs & disability support, which is joint work with colleagues @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Darcey Snape I wanted to delve deeper into some of the key findings....[1/6]

Some good news. Plans to drop triple science as GCSE options in Wales have been postponed till at least 2031 (pending further consultation) The case for removing this popular and rigorous option always seemed quite weak to me qualifications.wales/news-views/f...

Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6] ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

Faced with aggressive cancer, my friend decided to end his life in Switzerland almost exactly a year ago I hope you and I are never in that situation. But he faced this reality and wanted his voice heard why assisted dying should be legal in the UK These are his words. He always wrote beautifully

Surprise, surprise @samfr.bsky.social The 2025-26 baseline for the core schools budget is as specified in the Spring Statement and excludes the £600m for teacher pay from 2 weeks ago

What does £4.5 billion extra for schools in England mean? My guess is that this is a real-terms freeze in the core schools budget plus some extra money for free school meals This thread explains why 🧵[1/6] observer.co.uk/news/nationa... @theifs.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org

Schools can probably afford 2% teacher pay rises from within existing budgets Govt proposals for 2.8% assumed schools could make efficiency savings of £300m Going to 4% would add a further £400m to school costs on top of that

The government's borrowing rule (the ‘stability rule’) is being met by £9.9 billion in 2029/30, the *exact* same amount as last October. Nothing special about that number. Implies that policy is being fine-tuned in pursuit of an arbitrary number for ‘fiscal headroom’. Chasing the model.

I would strongly recommend this documentary about Jasmine Paris. It’s just a fantastic account of one person’s battle to achieve the seemingly impossible. And the joys of running in the wilderness Would even recommend to non-runners! youtu.be/PgTEsybXw-4?...

I'm SOOO excited about the tour coming to Wales, I'd like to propose a route: Builth to Cardiff via Devil's Staircase, Llyn Brianne, Black Mountain, Rhigos, Treorchy High Street (imagine it), passing through home towns of Max Boyce and Tom Jones, Caerphilly Mountain and a sprint finish at the bay

Such an eloquent and moving account by a young person on the immense challenges of homelessness as a child Llongyfarchiadau Mia 👏 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Very proud that my eye-catching headline from this podcast is: "The truth is probably a bit more boring" Thoroughly enjoyable chat with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social & @missmc.bsky.social

With the schools bill in the news, we cut through the noise on @theifs.bsky.social podcast - School performance in England has been ok for last 15 years, but lots of inequalities - Main effect will be making all schools follow new national curriculum - Uncertainty on what happens to failing schools

Wide-ranging podcast, this one. Super edu nerd @lukesibieta.bsky.social and I geek out on everything from breakfast clubs, to Ofsted, to baby doom, including an awkward stat about academies at the end & a desperate plea from me on housing and dentistry.

It was a delight to discuss schools with @missmc.bsky.social & @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social on @theifs.bsky.social zooms in podcast. I'm just disappointed we didn't manage to quite segway into a chat about Rab Butler and the 1944 act

Worth noting that these news stories on mobile phones are based on CORRELATIONS between school policy & mental health This evidence cannot be used to conclude that school phone bans do or do not causally affect grades or health. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Today is the 50th anniversary of the famous Köln concert when Keith Jarrett played the unplayable piano to deliver one of the most amazing and unique piano performances of all time I’ll be listening tonight with a glass of wine, I recommend you do too open.spotify.com/album/0I8vpS...

An authoritative and depressing blog on the economic cost of gun violence in US schools. I worry about my kids in the UK for various reasons. I’m so glad I don’t have to worry about guns. Great work @matthewakraft.bsky.social 👏

The annual @theifs.bsky.social report on education spending is out. I've always found it incredibly useful so really pleased that @nuffieldfoundation.org fund it. Here's spending by educational stage over the last 35 years. So many policy stories in a single chart. ifs.org.uk/publications...