Great thread by Nick on the options for increasing public investment within the government's fiscal rules

The OBR have released a new insightful report overpayments on fraud and overpayments in the benefit system. A brief🧵 explaining the key points:

Really enjoyed talking to the More or Less team about work incentives within the benefit system. You can hear the episode here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Heard from a reliable source that Mythos, a system capable of cracking any software system, stealing the nuclear codes and watching Putin while he takes a shower, is still reduced to a blubbering, incontinent wreck by the website of our Office for National Statistics, and this makes me damned proud

Some new evidence from Millburn review: Young people are staying on both incapacity benefits (UC health) and disability benefits (PIP) longer than they use to. There has been a lot of focus on the big increase in new claimants for both benefits, but slowing outflows are also part of the story.

If you like your economics to be reality-based, impartial and not always doom laden, listen to this @theifs.bsky.social podcast on the public finances with me @helenmiller.bsky.social and @maxwarner.bsky.social ifs.org.uk/articles/tou...

This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.

Sensible to trial new ways of embedding health and employment support earlier for people with health issues that affect their work or capacity to work. Vitally important that these trials are set up so they can be rigorously evaluated and learned from. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

NEW: The new tax on salary sacrifice pension contributions are set to hit higher earners in the private sector the hardest. 📗 @laurenceobrien.bsky.social & @matthewoulton.bsky.social’s new report examines who will be most affected by changes to how salary sacrifice pension contributions are taxed:

New PIP (disability benefits) data is out and it will be welcome news to the government who have expressed a desire to slow the rise in PIP claims. The number of new PIP claims each month has fallen again and is now considerably below its peak although still well above pre-pandemic levels.

NEW: Today’s new statistics show that the number of people starting disability benefits each month has continued to decline. Monthly awards are still above pre-pandemic levels, however. 📊 @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Sam Ray-Chaudhuri’s new comment explains the new data:

Great analysis by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. The Government's jobs guarantee and youth jobs grant provide big (if temporary) incentives to hire young people who have been unemployed and on the relevant bit of universal credit for more than 6 months.

Today we updated our @theifs.bsky.social spending tool with 2024-25 data! Do have a play around with it if you're having a quiet Friday afternoon - it lets you produce some nice breakdowns of different types of spending, across different areas and over time: ifs.org.uk/calculators/...

This is a great briefing by my @theifs.bsky.social colleagues. With energy prices rising, now is the time to think about how best to design any potential support package. Government can use linked data on energy usage and income to deliver well-targeted interventions without distorting energy prices

The Spring Forecast confirmed that the Spending Review next year looks tough. Plans are currently for departmental spending to grow by just 0.9% per year on average in real terms in the next Spending Review period, much slower than planned for the first part of the parliament.

Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like. I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.

Scotland benefits from free university tuition, free personal care services, and smaller class sizes than England. Why? Because the Scottish Government receives 26% more funding per resident than is spent in England on comparable services. This funding advantage is now being (very) gradually eroded.

An excellent and much-needed explainer of our complicated and controversial student loans system

The @lowpaycommission.bsky.social annual report is out. As always contains lots of insights. This is key chart for me: 20% of jobs are now paid within £1 of the minimum wage, up from 14% in 2015. Whatever you think of the minimum wage, its increasingly important!

Great to make first appearance on IFS Zooms In Pod. @helenmiller.bsky.social and I were joined by the excellent @alanmanning4.bsky.social to talk about what's happened to to the UK minimum wage, and what impact its having on the UK labour market. Give it a listen.

Here's a starter pack of IFS economists posting on BlueSky. Make sure you're following them all for the top-quality economic analysis on labour markets, inequality, public finances, healthcare, education and more! go.bsky.app/NYPwMB

New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations. Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast

Great to get this new research out. We find that following cuts to non-health benefit income cause more people to claim disability benefits.

NEW: Cuts to non-health-related benefits caused increases in disability benefit claims, our new report finds. 📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:

The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK. This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families. #Budget2025

If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970. #Budget2025

The Government has announced that the adult minimum wage will increase by 4.1% to £12.71. This is likely to be faster than inflation and average earnings growth. The UK’s minimum wage is already one of the highest amongst developed countries and this will push it higher.

NEW: Depressive symptoms have risen among women in their late 50s and early 60s, particularly among the least wealthy women. 📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]

New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system. 50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22. Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate

NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016. THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:

Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn. This point is especially important.

Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented. Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children: [THREAD:🧵]

@matthewoulton.bsky.social and I have a new @theifs.bsky.social comment out looking at the case for transitional protections for existing claimants when making benefit cuts and some of the related risks. We use the government's recent benefit reforms as an example. A short thread🧵

When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms: ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...

Last month, a new detailed survey of mental health amongst adults in England came out. Headline result is that more 16-64-year-olds have a common mental health conditions than in any previous wave of the survey over last 30 years. A brief thread...

So after a lot of debate and a lot of talk about fiscal sustainability, the confirmed reforms in the government's UC/PIP bill (so excluding the Timms review) will effectively save nothing by 2029/30.

The Government have announced changes to their proposed benefit reforms. By 2029/30 the original plans would have saved £5.5bn, but revised plans will only save £2.5bn so changes cost £3bn. However, since all changes only protect current claimants, long run savings from package still around £11bn.

NEW: Changes to health-related benefit reforms would reduce saving from the planned bill by £3 billion in 2029–30, but would create a huge difference in support between claimants. Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...

There are lots of rumours about potential changes to the government's benefit reforms in response to political challenges. The table below shows the costs and impacts on claimants of various options. If the government does choose to scale back overall cut, they have decision about who to help.

NEW: There's significant speculation that the proposed measures in next week's bill on universal credit and personal independence payments could be scaled back. Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...

NEW: Government's benefit reforms could reduce annual spending by around £11 billion in the long run – but still leave health-related benefit bill far above pre-pandemic levels. Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...

NEW: The tax system is making net zero more costly than it has to be. ‪@lgadenne.bsky.social‬ and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas: [THREAD]

Last week the Government released more information on their planned tightening of eligibility to disability benefits, with striking figures on health conditions and age. A short thread (1/8)

State pension age starts rising again in April 2026. Most people in their early 60s know their state pension age, but a significant minority are incorrect or unaware. This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇

NEW: Tomorrow marks the end of tax credits and their replacement with universal credit, over 20 years since their introduction. Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

NEW: New data suggest dramatic decline in living standards, but it may just be the quality of the data that has declined. Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...

Important chart to put the Spring Statement welfare reforms into context. Over last fifteen years we have seen a shift in working-age welfare spending towards health-related benefits. OBR projections suggest the Government's plans will slow this trend but not stop it.

A key chart to understand today's green paper. Govt plans to close the gap between incapacity and unemployment benefits for new claimants. They hope it will reduce claims to incapacity benefits and encourage work but it does mean less support for someone who faces a health shock in future.

NEW: Today’s announced reforms to disability and incapacity benefits represent a fundamental change to how the state supports people out of work. As a whole they're expected to save over £5 billion by 2029–30, the biggest cut to welfare in any fiscal event since 2015: [THREAD]

NEW: It has been widely reported that the government is looking to make significant savings from the working-age disability and incapacity benefits budget. How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required? [THREAD]