New ONS public finance data today shows central government revenues are still lagging significantly below March expectations. Given inflation has been higher than forecast, this is surprising - even VAT receipts, which one might expect to rise with inflation, are below forecast

Great to get this new research out. We find that following cuts to non-health benefit income cause more people to claim disability benefits.

NEW: Cuts to non-health-related benefits caused increases in disability benefit claims, our new report finds. 📗 Jonathan Cribb, @heidikarj.bsky.social, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri and Tom Waters examine the impact of four cuts to benefits in the 2010s [THREAD:🧵]:

The government has announced it intends to abolish the two-child limit, at a cost of £3bn according to @OBR_UK. This is one of the most cost-effective levers the government has to achieve a quick reduction in child poverty, given the high poverty rates among larger families. #Budget2025

If there were an election tomorrow, more net tax increases would have been announced in this parliament than in any other since at least 1970. #Budget2025

The Government has announced that the adult minimum wage will increase by 4.1% to £12.71. This is likely to be faster than inflation and average earnings growth. The UK’s minimum wage is already one of the highest amongst developed countries and this will push it higher.

NEW: Depressive symptoms have risen among women in their late 50s and early 60s, particularly among the least wealthy women. 📗 @beeboileau.bsky.social and Jonathan Cribb's new report examines health, wealth and employment in the run-up to the state pension age: [THREAD]

New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system. 50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22. Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate

NEW: The share of children receiving disability support and the share on high-level special educational support have both doubled since 2016. THREAD on @eduinlatimer.bsky.social, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape's IFS Green Budget chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org:

Three years on from Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget, I've written for @theobserveruk.bsky.social about its legacy and the lessons the Chancellor, her team and her backbench MPs (including would-be MPs) should keep in mind this autumn. This point is especially important.

Educational attainment gaps between richer and poorer children are well documented. Despite the two-child limit substantially reducing larger families' incomes, our new research finds it had no effect on the school readiness of affected children: [THREAD:🧵]

@matthewoulton.bsky.social and I have a new @theifs.bsky.social comment out looking at the case for transitional protections for existing claimants when making benefit cuts and some of the related risks. We use the government's recent benefit reforms as an example. A short thread🧵

When and how should the government protect existing claimants from benefit cuts? @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and @matthewoulton.bsky.social discuss trade-offs involved when designing transitional protections for benefit cuts & what it means for recent benefit reforms: ifs.org.uk/articles/whe...

Last month, a new detailed survey of mental health amongst adults in England came out. Headline result is that more 16-64-year-olds have a common mental health conditions than in any previous wave of the survey over last 30 years. A brief thread...

So after a lot of debate and a lot of talk about fiscal sustainability, the confirmed reforms in the government's UC/PIP bill (so excluding the Timms review) will effectively save nothing by 2029/30.

The Government have announced changes to their proposed benefit reforms. By 2029/30 the original plans would have saved £5.5bn, but revised plans will only save £2.5bn so changes cost £3bn. However, since all changes only protect current claimants, long run savings from package still around £11bn.

NEW: Changes to health-related benefit reforms would reduce saving from the planned bill by £3 billion in 2029–30, but would create a huge difference in support between claimants. Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...

There are lots of rumours about potential changes to the government's benefit reforms in response to political challenges. The table below shows the costs and impacts on claimants of various options. If the government does choose to scale back overall cut, they have decision about who to help.

NEW: There's significant speculation that the proposed measures in next week's bill on universal credit and personal independence payments could be scaled back. Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton discuss some of the government's options: ifs.org.uk/articles/opt...

NEW: Government's benefit reforms could reduce annual spending by around £11 billion in the long run – but still leave health-related benefit bill far above pre-pandemic levels. Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new report: ifs.org.uk/publications...

NEW: The tax system is making net zero more costly than it has to be. ‪@lgadenne.bsky.social‬ and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing demonstrates how emissions from electricity are taxed much more heavily than emissions from gas: [THREAD]

Last week the Government released more information on their planned tightening of eligibility to disability benefits, with striking figures on health conditions and age. A short thread (1/8)

State pension age starts rising again in April 2026. Most people in their early 60s know their state pension age, but a significant minority are incorrect or unaware. This is worrying as people may base retirement and saving decisions on incorrect information. Short thread👇

NEW: Tomorrow marks the end of tax credits and their replacement with universal credit, over 20 years since their introduction. Matt Oulton and Tom Wernham's new briefing examines how they changed the UK's welfare system and their legacy: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

NEW: New data suggest dramatic decline in living standards, but it may just be the quality of the data that has declined. Read our briefing on the new household incomes data for 2023–24 released this morning: ifs.org.uk/articles/new...

Important chart to put the Spring Statement welfare reforms into context. Over last fifteen years we have seen a shift in working-age welfare spending towards health-related benefits. OBR projections suggest the Government's plans will slow this trend but not stop it.

A key chart to understand today's green paper. Govt plans to close the gap between incapacity and unemployment benefits for new claimants. They hope it will reduce claims to incapacity benefits and encourage work but it does mean less support for someone who faces a health shock in future.

NEW: Today’s announced reforms to disability and incapacity benefits represent a fundamental change to how the state supports people out of work. As a whole they're expected to save over £5 billion by 2029–30, the biggest cut to welfare in any fiscal event since 2015: [THREAD]

NEW: It has been widely reported that the government is looking to make significant savings from the working-age disability and incapacity benefits budget. How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required? [THREAD]

As highlighted in a recent BBC article, overall death rates in the UK were back on the pre-pandemic trend in 2024, hitting an all time low. However, the overall death rate is dominated by what’s going on at older ages where most deaths happen. The news is much worse at working ages. 🧵 1/5

Key chart on this: the post-pandemic increase in disability and incapacity claims is a UK-specific issue. It does not appear to have happened elsewhere (apart from a little bit in Denmark). In many countries the number of claimants has fallen post-Covid. ifs.org.uk/publications...

New report out today with colleagues @theifs.bsky.social and funded by @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @healthfoundation.bsky.social. We look at what we know about the role of changing health and reported disability in the 38% rise in people claiming disability benefits since the pandemic. A 🧵 [1/10]

NEW: Over half of the rise in disability benefit claims since the pandemic comes from those whose main condition is a mental health problem. THREAD on our new report with evidence of a worsening of mental health since the pandemic funded by @jrf-uk.bsky.social & @healthfoundation.bsky.social: [1/7]

The Government is reported to be looking at ways of saving money on the benefits bill by encouraging people into work through employment support schemes. What do we know about the effectiveness of these schemes? A brief🧵 on two recent DWP evaluations

Interesting new DWP release. They adjust the incapacity benefits caseload for some differences between universal credit and the legacy system, the changing state pension age, and population aging. The adjusted caseload grew by 35% from 2018-2023 rather than 50% unadjusted. [1/4]

📈 #IFSSatStat: Spending on special educational needs in England set to rise by at least £2–3 billion by 2027, with the gap between funding and spending set to grow. This could push local authorities' accumulated high needs deficits up to £8 billion by 2027.

Yesterday DWP published the initial results from their recent trial of an online application form for PIP (UK's main working age disability benefit). The results are pretty striking for a relatively small operational change. A brief thread:

The Government has set an ambition to raise the employment rate to 80%. This would be an all-time high. What can we learn from the countries who have already done this? A brief thread on my @theifs.bsky.social comment [1/6]