One reading of this remark is that the fiscal rule requiring debt to be falling as a share of GDP in 2029/30 is now the one that binds (as cuts to capital spending wouldn't help to meet her borrowing rule). That's entirely possible - and was what we predicted in the IFS Green Budget, as it happens.

If there's one key message for the Chancellor from our analysis published today, it's this: Doing a bigger package to increase ‘headroom’ wouldn’t be costless – but nor is limping from one forecast to the next under constant speculation that policy will be tightened again.

With a fiscal “groundhog day” of discussions about how the Chancellor could keep meeting her fiscal rules for the second time this year, we were wondering: what are the chances we could be doing all this again in Spring? The answer: pretty high. Particularly nerdy thread:

At the end of parliament, health funding will be more than 50% higher than in 2010. Spending on justice, in contrast, will be lower in 2028–29 than two decades earlier despite recent increases. Spending on overseas aid and culture, media & sport will also be lower than in 2010.

Average annual real growth in total departmental spending over this parliament is set to be 2.3%. This is below the previous parliament’s average of 3.6%, but higher than the last government had outlined. @beeboileau.bsky.social on the big picture choices in the Spending Review:

Our new Sure Start overview report out today includes a cost-benefit analysis. These estimates are uncertain (many of the likely benefits haven’t happened yet!) but suggest Sure Start may go 90% of the way to ‘paying for itself’, with additional long-run benefits for children as they grow up

We've built a new IFS tool which can be used to explore what the government spends money on, and where in the UK benefits from that spending. Here it is: ifs.org.uk/calculators/.... Short thread on what you can do with the tool:

OBR productivity growth forecasts have historically been over-optimistic. They remain above the productivity growth rates seen since 2008 – a downgrade to the OBR's forecast could cause a real fiscal headache for the Chancellor.

NEW: It has been widely reported that the government is looking to make significant savings from the working-age disability and incapacity benefits budget. How might they do this and what kind of scale of changes would be required? [THREAD]

New evidence out on the EMA today. We find that while it did keep more students in full-time education, this didn't pass through to better quals or earnings later in life - in fact, reduced links to the labour market may have even reduced earnings. Have a read of the thread below and the report 👇