Big month for public finances as ONS publish the data for January. With a record surplus in January of £30.4bn and tax receipts performing well, it looks like the Spring Forecast is set to be non event. Short thread to follow...

UK inflation data out this morning shows a sharp, broad-based fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January - this is welcome good news. Inflation should now normalise rapidly in the coming months for the first time since before the pandemic. Thread to follow...

Big signing here for the government (and civil service) as Prof Brian Bell becomes Chief Economic Advisor at the Treasury. Brian will bring much-needed economic rigour and expertise, as well as adding A LOT of drive and energy to UK economic policymaking.

Great piece out this morning on the bleak prospects for living standards led by @louisemurphy.bsky.social 👏👏👏

Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better. In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...

Powerful and thought-provoking new report from @resolutionfoundation.org out today and well worth a read www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

We're now hearing from our brilliant first panel. Tune into the livestream here to find out what they have to say ⤵️ buff.ly/TbXMmu8

The Unsung Britain conference is now hearing from Ashwin Prasad, the Chief Executive Officer of Tesco UK. "My perspective as a major employer in this country is that far fewer people are in work than could be."

Working isn't working. Our analysis confirms that work is not a guaranteed route out of poverty. In the latest data, the majority (55 per cent) of non-pensioner families in poverty had someone in work. This is up from fewer than two-in-five families in the mid-1990s.

🚨 Major NEW research published today 🚨 Our book Unsung Britain reveals that squeezed families now face waiting more than a lifetime for the doubling of living standards we used to enjoy every 40 years. Full findings here 👉 buff.ly/7WcqrbQ

At our ⁦‪Resolution Foundation‬⁩ conference we are talking about the poorer half of Britain. Great work from the RF team. For more see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...

Here @resolutionfoundation.org we’re hosting Megan Greene of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee. Topic for today: how economic conditions are diverging across US and Europe - plenty to talk about! Hearing from @robwoodecon.bsky.social and our very own @ruthcurtice.bsky.social too.

Quick word on this morning's public finances data for the UK which were pretty much in line with expectations. Borrowing in December was £11.6bn, slightly lower than market expectations of £13.4bn. Year to date, borrowing is £140.4bn, which looks broadly consistent with the OBR's Nov forecast.

UK inflation out this morning shows CPI ended 2025 on a 'high', rising 0.2pp to 3.4% for December, the first monthly rise in 5 months, and higher than market expectations. We're now expecting falls in the coming months- big issue for today is how fast they'll come. Short thread on that to follow...

Forget what’s going on up a mountain in Switzerland, here @resolutionfoundation.org we’re talking about UK growth and the government’s struggles to deliver on its key priority. Great panel to chew over where policy can go further. For more, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

At RF we are talking prospects for 2026, focusing on growth, living standards and…Zombies! Great panel with @claire-ainsley.bsky.social and @luketryl.bsky.social and our very own Greg Thwaites and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social. Read our NY outlook here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

As expected, BoE cuts rates by 0.25ppts to 3.75%, the sixth cut in this cycle on a tighter-than-expected 5-4 vote. Bigger question for today, though, is how BoE sees balance of stubborn inflation and a weakening labour market. A short thread on that to follow...

Let's try that again! Welcome, surprise fall in UK inflation this morning with CPI at 3.2% in November, down from 3.6% in October (market and BoE expectations were for a smaller fall). This release surely nails on a rate cut from BoE tomorrow. Short thread to follow...

BoE loosened capital standards this morning and upped the emphasis on growth. Clearly fits with the government's agenda, but raises questions about the future safety of the financial system. Helpful thread on all today's announcements below.

In case you have finished having a row about the Budget process, here's some content on the actual Budget substance👇. (Great to do this with @lseinequalities.bsky.social)

New Household Cost Indices data out this morning show inflation is higher for renters, those on lower incomes, younger households and those with children. Unsurprisingly, renters are doing worse because rents are going up faster than mortgage costs.

Read all about yesterday's Budget here (with huge congrats to the @resolutionfoundation.org for amazing overnight analysis).

Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.

Follow along live! (or read the OBR document!)

We'll stay up all night crunching Budget numbers, so you don't have to. Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8 @ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes

Welcome reforms on minimum wage enforcement coming with the Budget.

Final public finances release before the Budget shows borrowing was slightly above market expectations at £17.4bn in October. Year-to-date borrowing was £116.8bn, £9.9bn above the OBR forecast. This comes too late for next week's forecast but is a key snapshot of the pub finances. Thread to follow.

UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...

What can we expect from the Budget? Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living @ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes buff.ly/drrsXC8

Disappointing UK GDP this morning showing growth of just 0.1% in Q3, slightly below BoE and market expectations (0.2%). The good news for the Chancellor is this comes to late to be included in Budget forecasts - but this underlines the growth challenge we face. Thread to follow...

The new BoE projections databank is a thing of beauty. Big step forward in terms of forecast transparency. 👏👏👏

Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...

Want to know what Rachel Reeves is talking about today? We have all the Budget issues covered in our (@resfoundation.bsky.social) preview: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

It's me! Talking all things Budget related.

Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.

Want to know what is going on with uprating benefits after yesterday's inflation data? @lalithatry.bsky.social has the answers:

UK CPI inflation finally surprised to the downside in September at 3.8% (4.0% expected). This is good news for mortgagors as it makes it more likely that the BoE will cut rates next month, but comes in key month for benefits uprating. Thread on all the details to follow...

This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...

This morning's data show UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to August, with output expanding 0.1% on the month, in line with market expectations. Worrying thing in this release is the flatlining of the all-important service sector in July and August. A short thread on this to follow...

Great opportunity to come and help shape our work here @resfoundation.bsky.social: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp... (although you will have to work with me....)

IMF forecasts being widely reported. In truth, not a lot of news: growth is stronger in 2025, reflecting outturns, 2026 has been revised down, partly due to tariffs, v.similar to BoE fcast changes. Expect OBR to also revise 2025 up and 2026 onwards down (although likely by more) in November.

Here at ⁦‪the Resolution Foundation‬⁩ we have Catherine Mann talking about demand weakness. Great event with Michael Saunders too: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/expla...

Do sign up for this event tomorrow - is great panel, with Catherine Mann and Michael Saunders, a really important topic (why families aren't spending), and all hosted by our very own Ruth Curtice. What more could you want??

Genuine sympathy with Office for National Statistics on this. What's happened here is a bog-standard HMRC recording error on VAT which the ONS have been commendably open about. On substance, it doesn't change the outlook much as low VAT receipts always looked erratic.

This is the quintessential read on household wealth inequality Britain - is well worth your time.

We are talking household wealth inequality ⁦at the Resolution Foundation‬⁩ with ⁦Molly Broome, Polly Toynbee, Mike Savage and our very own David Willetts. To read the research, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

This is good from Simon Wren-Lewis on why the country's fiscal woes are not caused by OBR forecasts, the bond market or (most improbably) the frequency of fiscal forecasts.

ONS published a revised set of national accounts data this morning - key data for BoE and OBR in judging whats going on with the economy. Key takeaway is little change in near term pattern of growth but ONS think the economy is a little bigger than previously thought...

More on the frequency of fiscal events this morning. Most important thing to understand here is that our fiscal problems are NOT caused by too many events (or OBR forecasts)- they reflect weak growth and higher interest rates that have left the public finances stretched, making decisions difficult.

Disappointing S&P global PMI this morning for the UK - suggests a step down in growth in September. Bad news for the government as it suggests the strong growth in the first half of the year was a blip rather than a new trend. Worrying weakening in growth in the all-important service sector.