The new BoE projections databank is a thing of beauty. Big step forward in terms of forecast transparency. 👏👏👏

Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...

Want to know what Rachel Reeves is talking about today? We have all the Budget issues covered in our (@resfoundation.bsky.social) preview: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

It's me! Talking all things Budget related.

Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.

Want to know what is going on with uprating benefits after yesterday's inflation data? @lalithatry.bsky.social has the answers:

UK CPI inflation finally surprised to the downside in September at 3.8% (4.0% expected). This is good news for mortgagors as it makes it more likely that the BoE will cut rates next month, but comes in key month for benefits uprating. Thread on all the details to follow...

This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...

This morning's data show UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to August, with output expanding 0.1% on the month, in line with market expectations. Worrying thing in this release is the flatlining of the all-important service sector in July and August. A short thread on this to follow...

Great opportunity to come and help shape our work here @resfoundation.bsky.social: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp... (although you will have to work with me....)

IMF forecasts being widely reported. In truth, not a lot of news: growth is stronger in 2025, reflecting outturns, 2026 has been revised down, partly due to tariffs, v.similar to BoE fcast changes. Expect OBR to also revise 2025 up and 2026 onwards down (although likely by more) in November.

Here at ⁦‪the Resolution Foundation‬⁩ we have Catherine Mann talking about demand weakness. Great event with Michael Saunders too: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/expla...

Do sign up for this event tomorrow - is great panel, with Catherine Mann and Michael Saunders, a really important topic (why families aren't spending), and all hosted by our very own Ruth Curtice. What more could you want??

Genuine sympathy with Office for National Statistics on this. What's happened here is a bog-standard HMRC recording error on VAT which the ONS have been commendably open about. On substance, it doesn't change the outlook much as low VAT receipts always looked erratic.

This is the quintessential read on household wealth inequality Britain - is well worth your time.

We are talking household wealth inequality ⁦at the Resolution Foundation‬⁩ with ⁦Molly Broome, Polly Toynbee, Mike Savage and our very own David Willetts. To read the research, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

This is good from Simon Wren-Lewis on why the country's fiscal woes are not caused by OBR forecasts, the bond market or (most improbably) the frequency of fiscal forecasts.

ONS published a revised set of national accounts data this morning - key data for BoE and OBR in judging whats going on with the economy. Key takeaway is little change in near term pattern of growth but ONS think the economy is a little bigger than previously thought...

More on the frequency of fiscal events this morning. Most important thing to understand here is that our fiscal problems are NOT caused by too many events (or OBR forecasts)- they reflect weak growth and higher interest rates that have left the public finances stretched, making decisions difficult.

Disappointing S&P global PMI this morning for the UK - suggests a step down in growth in September. Bad news for the government as it suggests the strong growth in the first half of the year was a blip rather than a new trend. Worrying weakening in growth in the all-important service sector.

This morning's public sector finance data were not great for the government ahead of a difficult Budget. Borrowing was £18bn in Aug, £3.5bn higher than last year, highest in 5 years, and £5.5bn above the OBR forecast. Borrowing is now £11.4bn above the OBR forecast in the year to date.

As expected, BoE keeps rates on hold at 4% (with two members voting for 0.25ppts cut) as it juggles higher near-term inflation and weaker labour market. Bigger news is the slowing of QT sales to £70bn and skewing to shorter maturities. Thread on all that to follow...

UK CPI inflation was 3.8% in August, in line with market and BoE expectations. Below the top line there was some good news on underlying inflation but food price inflation accelerated to 5.1%, increasing pressure on struggling families. Short thread to follow...

New piece out today on recent market moves. Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.

Great to have @sophiehale.bsky.social back - her thread on this morning's trade data (which covers the adjustment so far to US tariffs) is essential reading.

Monthly UK GDP out this morning for July shows output flat on the month, in line with market expectations. This is stodgy start to Q3 after decent performance in the first half of the year and will not be what the government was hoping for. Short thread to follow...

Huge congrats to the amazing @profsophieharman.bsky.social for being nominated for the @britishacademy.bsky.social Book Prize. Another trip down the red carpet beckons... 👏👏👏 www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/british-acad...

📣 We're hiring! 📣 Do you have an interest in the economic and social policy of the UK and an eye for detail? Find out more about joining our team as a Researcher ⤵️ buff.ly/VVGWc14

A quick word on today's ONS household cost indices which are the key metric for inflation experience across different household groups. Key takeaway from this morning's data (to June) is that inflation for poorer families is once again picking up...

Little news in today's public sector finances data: borrowing was in line with the OBR forecast with cash receipts v.slightly above forecast. This will be a relief to the Chancellor as it suggests this is one area where the data are not headed in the wrong direction.

Quick word on today's encouraging UK flash PMIs. This is THE key short-term economic indicator and the big issue for Aug was whether the recovery from April & May doldrums wd continue... In the event, the composite PMI pickedup slightly to its highest level in a year in August...

Disappointingish @ONS inflation data this morning with CPI up 3.8% in July (3.6% in June), slightly above market expectations. Some of this is erratic airfares, but UK is increasingly looking like an inflation outlier. Thread on on all that to follow…

Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...

As expected, the BoE cuts rates by 0.25ppts to 4%, the lowest rate since March 2023, on a three-way split vote. Key issue for today is signal we get on future rate cuts and how the BoE sees signs of weakening economy. Thread on that to follow on all that…

Key thread here (from @mollybroome.bsky.social) on the context to today's big announcement on the new Pensions Commission...

Want to know what’s going on with higher-than-expected inflation out this morning? @lalithatry.bsky.social has all the answers for you…

Avoid using British Airways especially from London City - all recent flights I’ve booked with them from there have been cancelled. The latest is they cancelled a flight, to Nice, for this Friday, without telling us, and now have no viable alternatives. Start of holiday officially ruined. Cheers BA 👍

Very clear thread from @tobyn.bsky.social on today's alarming moves in financial markets. Key takeaway: markets worried by the alternatives to Rachel Reeves - this has to be a better vote of confidence than even the PM's.

Today's OBR Forecast Evaluation Report has been seen by some as an outrider for a forecast markdown that would make the Government's life A LOT harder. That still might happen, but I don't think it's the right take on today's report...

We are launching our latest living standards outlook here @resfoundation.bsky.social. Spoiler alert: the outlook is a tough. But this is not set in stone - focusing on growth and targeted support for lower-income families could shift the dial.

Great event tomorrow on the troubling outlook for living standards (particularly for the Government). Do sign up.

At the Bank of England today for a conference about issues relating to the Bernanke review: www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2025/... Focus is on uncertainty- certainly no shortage of that atm. So worth checking out papers and discussions on BoE website.

Changing how we generate electricity means we also have to change how we use it. That means pricing electricity when and where it's expensive, to make our system more efficient and bring bills down - worth £200 a household. But there are risks to manage. [thread] tinyurl.com/y7z2u269

The government published its infrastructure strategy today setting out how it plans to invest over the next decade. Overall, long-term investment planning is most welcome but there's still a lot up for grabs. A short thread...

Bank of England keeps rates at 4.25%, with three votes for a quarter point cut. Lots of news since May, though, so big issue is where rates go from here. Thread on that to follow…

Slightly disappointing UK inflation data out this morning show CPI was steady at (a corrected) 3.4% in May despite big falls in erratic airfares. There was a worrying rise in food prices with more cost of living pressures to come following renewed conflict in the Middle East. Thread to follow...

Third time lucky? Register now to discuss whether the Spending Review has delivered for middle Britain ⤵️ buff.ly/CqKcssE 🗣️ Andy King, ‪@drhannahwhite.bsky.social‬‬, @rachelsylvester.bsky.social‬, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social‬ and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social‬.

In case not seen, the Bank of England is holding a conference on its work on the Bernanke review on 26th June. www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2025/...

With the Spending Review now a week away, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social break down five things to look out for next week: buff.ly/BLx1kng

New @resfoundation.bsky.social piece looking forward to next week's pivotal Spending Review: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... (with @ruthcurtice.bsky.social).