Today’s labour market stats show a weakening jobs market, with rising unemployment and flatlining real pay. Some @resolutionfoundation.org key takeaways from me and @louisemurphy.bsky.social 🧵 ...

Have written a piece teeing up tomorrow's labour market stats, pointing out the sort-of obvious - that we currently have a problem with unemployment (i.e. demand) not just participation (i.e. supply). www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA). What does the data tell us? ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.

The Govt is undertaking the Timms review, assessing whether PIP is “fair and fit for the future”. But what if we could learn lessons from a nation within the UK that had successfully implemented a new adult disability benefit just three years ago? 🤔 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one. The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent. But beneath the surface...

New net migration figures show that international net-migration falls to 204k (like 2000s average). Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure. This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.

The Chancellor has scrapped the two-child limit, benefitting more than half a million families. In April 2025, out of families impacted by the limit: - 6 in 10 had 3 children. - 6 in 10 had at least one person in work. - And 6 in 10 are receiving a health or disability benefit.

Reminder - increasing the number of face-to-face assessments for PIP is a red herring. The success rates for face-to-face vs virtual assessments are very similar.

Scrapping the two-child limit in full is a monumental decision. Well done to all involved in the Child Poverty Strategy, and everyone who has made the case against the policy. OBR says scrapping costs £3 billion in 2029-30 and will lift 450,000 out of poverty

Big news on Fuel Duty - the 5p cut will be removed gradually from September. A good way to end this giveaway without pushing up inflation

The 2026 minimum wage rates have been announced: NLW: £12.21➡️£12.71. (+4.1%) 18-20-yo rate: £10➡️£10.85. (+8.5%) 16-17-yo rate: £7.55➡️£8.00. (+6%) Some context & thoughts on those uprating decisions:

Great new blog from Alex. Welfare spending isn't 'out of control'. But it's true that some parts of the system are growing while others are shrinking. Since 2019-20, spending for pensioners and those in poor health has risen by £45bn in real terms, while everything else has been squeezed.

NEW: Report from me and @nehaldavison.bsky.social on how and why boys from low-income families get left behind in their early years 🧵⬇️ www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Unless DWP improves the clarity of its UC statistics by splitting out claimants who migrate from legacy benefits to UC vs those who make new claims, we're going to keep getting misleading headlines like this for the foreseeable future...

Today’s labour market statistics show that the labour market is weakening on multiple fronts, with unemployment reaching 5 per cent for the first time in almost a decade (pandemic period aside). Here’s our @resolutionfoundation.org thread, from @nyecominetti.bsky.social and me.

What should we make of the Mayfield 'Keep Britain Working' review, published this week? New @resolutionfoundation.org blog with @benbgeiger.bsky.social on where the review gets it right - and where we think it needs to go further. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/from...

NEW REPORT Labour is struggling to meet its education priorities. It has big ambitions to improve schools, but a budget that falls short of matching them. And with no clear plans to reform the SEND system or tackle workforce shortages, children are being left without the support they need.

Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

There are close to one million young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) - but before we can fix this problem, we need to understand who these young people really are. We set this out in today's @resfoundation.bsky.social report... www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

It's increasingly perplexing that DWP aren't prioritising improving their stats to better reflect the move from legacy benefits to UC. Until then, we'll keep getting misleading headlines like 'Long-term sickness claims rising by 5,000 a day' - you can't blame journalists when the stats are so bad!

New work out on children receiving support for disabilities in school and/or benefit system. 50% of children with most severe needs aged 15 were not in work, education or training (NEET) aged 22. Improving outcomes for this group is vital if gov wants to cut NEET rate

Good news that the Govt will offer more support to young people who are out of work. But while there are almost a million NEET young people, the support announced today (focusing just on 18-21-year-olds who are long-term unemployed and claiming UC) will reach less than 5% of this group...

Inflation holding steady at 3.8% leaves the UK with the highest headline CPI inflation in the G7 and the joint highest (with Iceland, also 3.8% in Aug) among OECD rich countries. A chunk of this is policy related (NI rise, higher administered prices, eg water bills, and food packaging regulation).

Today’s ONS data show a labour market continuing to cool, but there are signs of calming after a jobs crunch in the first part of 2025. Here is our thread (fom me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social) Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October

New piece out today on recent market moves. Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.

Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6] ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

New @resfoundation.bsky.social blog on what the latest Universal Credit Health data tells us about benefit claims across Britain www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...

New UC data out today shows that more than a third (37%) of all UC claimants are in receipt of UC health, up from 32% this time last year. Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...

This is excellent. There's now broad consensus that the current benefits system isn't doing a good enough job at supporting disabled people into employment, but until now there hasn't been much good evidence about what 'better employment support' actually looks like.

Big moment - all PIP claimants in Scotland have been transferred to Adult Disability Payment. Why does this matter? 1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...

There are a few jobs going in the RF research team - more info here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

The ONS released new NEETs data this morning, suggesting that almost a million (948k) 16-24-year-olds are not in education, employment or training. Although LFS issues mean that we shouldn't put too much weight on these figures, there are reasons to be concerned about trends in youth employment...

We should not accept 1 in 8 of our 16-24 year olds shut out of learning or earning. Dreadful for young people, economy & society. Purposeful government can make a difference - but it will require learning lessons, real focus & new resource. Me in the @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/97da...

Great new paper looking at the first cohort of T level students: T level students who progress to HE end up at lower quality unis/courses than students from other pathways Unlike BTECs, disadvantaged students studying T levels were less likely to progress to HE than their non-disadvantaged peers

Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...

Lots of food for thought in this note about the risk of scrapping BTECs (a policy decision that doesn't get discussed enough imo). It includes this great stat: a quarter of students now enter university with BTEC qualifications rather than A Levels etc! www.sixthformcolleges.org/380/news-and...

Today’s labour market statistics show that the jobs market is continuing to loosen, with jobs, vacancies and pay growth all weakening. Our @resfoundation.bsky.social take, from myself and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, is below...

Great report on "the radical domestication of existence" - worth a read

The Government will struggle to reach its 80% employment target without getting more disabled people into work. Here’s a thread – based on today’s @resfoundation.bsky.social report with @benbgeiger.bsky.social – on how better employer incentives can help get us there...

How can we support employers to hire and retain disabled staff? @benbgeiger.bsky.social and I explore this question, and set out four concrete policy proposals, in a new @resfoundation.bsky.social report out today: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Looking forward to this - come along (or join online) on Thursday

Today’s labour market stats shows that the jobs market is continuing to weaken, with signs that pay growth may also be slowing. Our take below (h/t @nyecominetti.bsky.social)

Expectations vs reality

Wow - it now sounds like the Govt is removing the PIP changes from the UC-PIP bill entirely. All that remains is the cut to UC-Health for new applicants, and the (welcome) increase to the basic rate of UC. This would mean the Govt has lost all the welfare savings it hoped to make this decade.

News of a further consession, that the PIP eligibility changes will take place *after* the Timms review into PIP is finished. Begs the question: why try to pass legislation today about introducing the PIP four-point rule, only to then launch a PIP review which could lead to this being scrapped!?

As Parliament prepares to vote tomorrow on cuts to PIP and UC-Health, the Govt consultation on longer-term changes to the benefits system also closes. A thread on the good, the bad and the messy included in the consultation... www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Amid all the talk about the Government's cuts to health and disability benefits, it's worth pausing to reflect on the backdrop: a large and growing number of adults in the UK are in poor health. Today we got new high-quality data on the prevalence of mental health conditions across England...

Changing how we generate electricity means we also have to change how we use it. That means pricing electricity when and where it's expensive, to make our system more efficient and bring bills down - worth £200 a household. But there are risks to manage. [thread] tinyurl.com/y7z2u269

As mentioned in the welfare bill amendment, the Government has not yet published any analysis on the employment effects of its benefit cuts. Here at @resfoundation.bsky.social, we gave it a go last month...

The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill has been released. Here's a short thread highlighting a few things we learned: (1) 200,000 people who are in the 'Severe Conditions Criteria group' will be protected from the changes to UC-H.