Inflation holding steady at 3.8% leaves the UK with the highest headline CPI inflation in the G7 and the joint highest (with Iceland, also 3.8% in Aug) among OECD rich countries. A chunk of this is policy related (NI rise, higher administered prices, eg water bills, and food packaging regulation).

Today’s ONS data show a labour market continuing to cool, but there are signs of calming after a jobs crunch in the first part of 2025. Here is our thread (fom me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social) Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October

New piece out today on recent market moves. Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.

Today, we publish a new piece on SEND reform. The problems and risks are well known, so I just wanted to reflect on the solutions... [1/6] ifs.org.uk/articles/eng...

New @resfoundation.bsky.social blog on what the latest Universal Credit Health data tells us about benefit claims across Britain www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...

New UC data out today shows that more than a third (37%) of all UC claimants are in receipt of UC health, up from 32% this time last year. Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...

This is excellent. There's now broad consensus that the current benefits system isn't doing a good enough job at supporting disabled people into employment, but until now there hasn't been much good evidence about what 'better employment support' actually looks like.

Big moment - all PIP claimants in Scotland have been transferred to Adult Disability Payment. Why does this matter? 1) UC (incl UC-health) is reserved to the UK Gov, while disability benefits are devolved. This makes the UK Gov's upcoming health benefit reform tricky www.gov.scot/news/adult-d...

There are a few jobs going in the RF research team - more info here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

The ONS released new NEETs data this morning, suggesting that almost a million (948k) 16-24-year-olds are not in education, employment or training. Although LFS issues mean that we shouldn't put too much weight on these figures, there are reasons to be concerned about trends in youth employment...

We should not accept 1 in 8 of our 16-24 year olds shut out of learning or earning. Dreadful for young people, economy & society. Purposeful government can make a difference - but it will require learning lessons, real focus & new resource. Me in the @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/97da...

Great new paper looking at the first cohort of T level students: T level students who progress to HE end up at lower quality unis/courses than students from other pathways Unlike BTECs, disadvantaged students studying T levels were less likely to progress to HE than their non-disadvantaged peers

Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...

Lots of food for thought in this note about the risk of scrapping BTECs (a policy decision that doesn't get discussed enough imo). It includes this great stat: a quarter of students now enter university with BTEC qualifications rather than A Levels etc! www.sixthformcolleges.org/380/news-and...

Today’s labour market statistics show that the jobs market is continuing to loosen, with jobs, vacancies and pay growth all weakening. Our @resfoundation.bsky.social take, from myself and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social, is below...

Great report on "the radical domestication of existence" - worth a read

The Government will struggle to reach its 80% employment target without getting more disabled people into work. Here’s a thread – based on today’s @resfoundation.bsky.social report with @benbgeiger.bsky.social – on how better employer incentives can help get us there...

How can we support employers to hire and retain disabled staff? @benbgeiger.bsky.social and I explore this question, and set out four concrete policy proposals, in a new @resfoundation.bsky.social report out today: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Looking forward to this - come along (or join online) on Thursday

Today’s labour market stats shows that the jobs market is continuing to weaken, with signs that pay growth may also be slowing. Our take below (h/t @nyecominetti.bsky.social)

Expectations vs reality

Wow - it now sounds like the Govt is removing the PIP changes from the UC-PIP bill entirely. All that remains is the cut to UC-Health for new applicants, and the (welcome) increase to the basic rate of UC. This would mean the Govt has lost all the welfare savings it hoped to make this decade.

News of a further consession, that the PIP eligibility changes will take place *after* the Timms review into PIP is finished. Begs the question: why try to pass legislation today about introducing the PIP four-point rule, only to then launch a PIP review which could lead to this being scrapped!?

As Parliament prepares to vote tomorrow on cuts to PIP and UC-Health, the Govt consultation on longer-term changes to the benefits system also closes. A thread on the good, the bad and the messy included in the consultation... www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Amid all the talk about the Government's cuts to health and disability benefits, it's worth pausing to reflect on the backdrop: a large and growing number of adults in the UK are in poor health. Today we got new high-quality data on the prevalence of mental health conditions across England...

Changing how we generate electricity means we also have to change how we use it. That means pricing electricity when and where it's expensive, to make our system more efficient and bring bills down - worth £200 a household. But there are risks to manage. [thread] tinyurl.com/y7z2u269

As mentioned in the welfare bill amendment, the Government has not yet published any analysis on the employment effects of its benefit cuts. Here at @resfoundation.bsky.social, we gave it a go last month...

The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill has been released. Here's a short thread highlighting a few things we learned: (1) 200,000 people who are in the 'Severe Conditions Criteria group' will be protected from the changes to UC-H.

New Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill introduced in the Commons www.rightsnet.org.uk/now/post/63484

The Household Support Fund is now the 'Crisis and Resilience Fund' and will be funded at £1 bn/yr (incl. Barnett) until the end of 2028-29. The first multi-year funding will be very helpful for local authorities delivering the scheme as they can now plan, develop their approach, retain staff etc.

I’m in the Guardian today, arguing that we should stop them all-class mental health lessons in schools I've thought very carefully about ‘going public’ with this, because it's a sensitive argument to make, especially in the face of so many young people struggling. (cont 🧵) tinyurl.com/vun92cz7

Our new report on the Household Support Fund, part of the @safety-nets.bsky.social‬ project, is out today. It draws on analysis of HSF admin data and interviews with LAs and @changingrealities.bsky.social‬ participants to identify how the HSF can be improved in a long-term settlement /Thread

I missed this last week - but good news that the Govt is continuing to roll out Mental Health Support Teams (MHSTs), with over half (52%) of pupils/learners now in settings that have access to a MHST. www.gov.uk/government/n...

Yes - important that today's U-turn doesn't mean that we lose sight of the 3.2m working-age families who will be affected by cuts to PIP and Universal Credit, with some losing more than £4,500 per year.

After announcing multi-billion-pound cuts to health and disability benefits, the Chancellor said that "I am absolutely certain that our reforms, instead of pushing people into poverty, are going to get people into work." New @resfoundation.bsky.social work out today puts this to the test...

Looking forward to this event tomorrow! Come along (or join online) to hear about the impact of recent welfare reforms and whether or not the Government is right to claim that increases to poverty will be offset by people entering employment...

Couple of points on "ending" overseas recruitment for care jobs. 1. Important to remember that reality has already moved on from the very high migration levels of 2022-2023. Cleverly's policy changes already hugely reduced care visa numbers (chart from @healthfoundation.bsky.social)

We're hearing a lot about the 9.2 million working-age people who are economically inactive today. Worth remembering: a) Many of these people are doing very valuable things, e.g. studying or caring for family b) This is not a new phenomenon: inactivity has been around 9m for the last two decades

🚨We have today published our alternative employment rate estimates (developed by @adamcorlett.bsky.social). You can download the data. We provide a methodology as well as an FAQ - genuinely keen to hear any feedback. We plan to update this every month. www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...

On Friday afternoon, the Govt published the evidence pack for its Pathways to Work Green Paper. It confirms that the Govt's PIP cut will hit older people hardest, despite all the rhetoric about focusing on 'snowflake' young people. A quick thread...

After 3 years in the making, our Registered Report is out in @nathumbehav.nature.com! We analyse nationally representative UK data from 3,340 adolescents (aged 11–19) to examine how social media use differs between those with and without mental health conditions. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

This feels like a bit of a false equivalence from the BBC…!

Good that DWP has published its report on public perceptions - but it shows that the Govt's ambition to reform the benefits system is happening against a tough backdrop. E.g. among those with long-term health condns or disabilities, 44% do not trust DWP to help people reach their career potential.

Important new report for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk by former Social Exclusion head Moira Wallace on how last Labour govt reduced school absence. Lots of lessons - and proof govts can make change happen www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/... Look out for further instalments..

This was a very moving piece

A 2025 small joy: entering Euston station and remembering that the big departures board is back (and it now actually displays train platforms more than 2 mins before departure!)

New @resfoundation.bsky.social‬ research out today assesses how the capital rules in Universal Credit are affecting recipients, where the system is falling short, and what can be done to improve it. Some key findings… ⬇️

Thanks to some promptly submitted FOIs, we now know a bit more about the impact of the recently-announced PIP cuts, where those awarded less than 4 points in all daily living activities will be affected. As of Jan 2025, almost half (46%) of PIP recipients do not meet the 4 points requirement.

As an aside - it's frustrating that this data was only released via the FOI process and wasn't included in the Green Paper evidence pack. (Despite the Green Paper being released a month ago now, we still only have an "interim evidence pack", which just includes 6 charts rehearsing old material.)

Today’s labour market statistics - the last snapshot before the start of the new financial year - point to a falling employment rate and pay growth that might be starting to weaken. Here’s our @resfoundation.bsky.social thread (from me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social)...