Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...

Brilliant report from centax and others out yesterday. With even small tax changes seemingly able to wreck political reputations, we have to hope some appetite remains for the really big reforms that could boost growth. share.google/H8VbJvxsT5GZ...

My first op-ed! What a day for it. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Thanks to @oecdgovernance.bsky.social for inviting me to write a blog on communicating the public finances. I am slightly obsessed with the how big is a billion issue - send me your favourite analogies! www.oecd.org/en/blogs/202...

Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

Recruitment has begun for a new National Statistician (£200k). Important role as the strategic head of the UK statistical system. There is less operational work as there is now a Perm Sec for ONS. So they are seeking an ‘internationally recognised leader in statistics’ www.saxbam.com/appointment/...

Things I learnt from our excellent panel today 1) we should set a target/ambition for NEETs not just state the problem 2) need to worry about whether any of local growth fund is going into employment support and 3) other countries target apprenticeship schemes much more successfully than the UK

This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...

Through successive governments a shadow tax and benefits system has emerged in energy bills worth £7bn. New report out today says government should fix this system, and reduce energy bills for households. www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...

PM says on radio that there are 1m young people on benefits. Presume he meant 1m young people not in education employment or training. Only about half of them claim benefits.

There's good news and bad news on household incomes. While we've seen healthy income growth in the past 18 months, incomes have yet to recover from the cost of living crisis. ⬇️

More on the frequency of fiscal events this morning. Most important thing to understand here is that our fiscal problems are NOT caused by too many events (or OBR forecasts)- they reflect weak growth and higher interest rates that have left the public finances stretched, making decisions difficult.

Supposedly age has replaced class as the big divide in British politics. For Chart of the Week, we've examined the dramatic evolution of Labour's vote share across the age and income distribution 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/2SuQ8TJ

Report out on tax options for the Budget. 2p income tax rise alongside 2p national insurance cut would mean no tax rise for an employee whose income comes from a job. With employment overtaxed at the moment, workers pay packets should be protected and distortions in the tax system removed.

Key point from James on the public sector finances this morning. Receipts weakness important for the forecast. One more month of data will make it into OBR calcs.

Poverty rate data from the IFS: ifs.org.uk/living-stand... Comparative international pension data from the OECD: stat.link/v8jpaz Post-2010 policy impact from Resolution Foundation: www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/... ENDS

New piece out today on recent market moves. Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.

Great to have Sophie back!

You can see more about my comments at the summit here #HousingCommunitySummit

Great to open the housing community summit today. Struck by the optimism of the sector around the Social and Affordable homes programme; but concerns on workforce (not just construction, also surveyors) and planning capacity. 🧵#HousingCommunitySummit

While it is sad to see the depth of problems at the ONS, it is heartening to see mistakes owned up to honestly and transparently. The start of fixing. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Fantastic to work with @anandmenon.bsky.social and others on this report out this morning. Big takeaway from our panel - is the government prepared to take on fights this Autumn to make progress on these challenges. Nothing left to lose, or the window of opportunity to be bold already passed?

Re the mini shuffle my thoughts are with the Treasury officials who have to get used to having two ministers called chief secretary in government. Who will "the chief" refer to? www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cv...

Excited to do this collaboration with @anandmenon.bsky.social next week - come along!

📣 NEW EVENT 📣 Join us and @resfoundation.bsky.social as we launch the latest edition of our Policy Landscape report with expert analysis of the biggest public policy challenges facing the UK 📅 Tues 2 Sept, 9:30am 📍In-person (London) & online Sign up 👇 www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/hot-t...

📣 We're hiring for a Principal Economist 👀 This is a unique opportunity for an individual who can conduct economic and policy analysis independently at an advanced level. Full details here ⤵️ buff.ly/5pBKLDx

📣 We're hiring! 📣 Do you have an interest in the economic and social policy of the UK and an eye for detail? Find out more about joining our team as a Researcher ⤵️ buff.ly/EmREN1c

Ready for your next step? We're hiring! 📣 If you have strong quantitative research skills and a commitment to raising living standards in the UK, you might be the right fit for our team. Find out more about becoming an Economist or Research & Policy Analyst ⤵️ buff.ly/7MNZRR4

Thanks to Gregory Thwaites, @nyecominetti.bsky.social and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social who spent the summer trying to work out what's really going on in the jobs market. We mustn't let concerns about the stats stop us worrying about rising unemployment which looks real and not over on.ft.com/45S2Luf

Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...

Amid wealth tax discussion, it's worth reflecting on recent changes in tax takes across the income distribution. Combining all payments (ie income taxes and VAT etc), the richest and poorest pay the most as a share of their gross income. But rates are down markedly in the middle of the distribution

This highlights a fundamental question for the review: should policy aim to deliver full adequacy for all, or act as a foundation that leaves space for individual choices and top-ups? The Pensions Commission was clear that it should be the latter.

Tonight, Rachel Reeves delivers her Mansion House speech, and we expect she’ll announce the long-awaited review into pension adequacy (alongside other reforms such as financial deregulation).

A good day for fiscal nerds - OBR's fiscal risk and sustainability report is out. Always worth a read. Quite striking that they have chosen to open with a particularly stark reminder of the vulnerability of the UK fiscal position. Some favourite charts to follow. obr.uk/frs/fiscal-r...

Great discussion this morning. Extremely striking chart to open today's report too - the end of low pay in Britain @nyecominetti.bsky.social

The latest u-turn looks to be removing all PIP changes from the bill. Remaining net savings in the crucial year for fiscal rules of....about zero. Doesn't mean the bill is nothing though: still very important changes to, and a sensible rebalancing of, universal credit (with savings in future years)

Quite shocking developments at Abrdn financial fairness trust, which has been a great partner for us at RF. www.thetimes.com/article/7d69...

Today is also the day the government's consultation on the welfare reform green paper closes. Lots of big changes in there which are separate from the bill. Great piece from @louisemurphy.bsky.social on some of the key one. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Some more details this morning on the welfare bill concessions. Things we learn: 1) it is overall UC income that will be protected in real terms for existing recipients, so the UC-health element goes up somewhere between the original policy to freeze in cash terms and inflation.

For anyone thinking of joining last minutes this morning just to confirm - we have aircon!

We've got a quick rundown on what you need to know about the recently announced changes in next week's benefits bill *PLUS* Chart of the week looks ahead to how disposable incomes will fare by 2030... 👛 Read this week's Top of the charts now ⤵️ buff.ly/mbgMjm5

Latest living standards outlook out. Enjoyed discussing with Vicky Pryce @danrcorry.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social 1)we just had a good year for incomes. Employee NICs cuts played a part, but Vicky Pryce says they are the real cause of the black hole & haven't led to consumer confidence boost

How has the outlook for living standards changed over the last year? Join our event tomorrow to hear from Vicky Pryce @danrcorry.bsky.social‬ @adamcorlett.bsky.social‬ @ruthcurtice.bsky.social‬ on the outlook for different households, and how policy could improve this. Sign-up ➡️ buff.ly/zbgWCct

Great thread from Louise on the bill. 13 week wait good news. DWP press notice is a further masterclass in conflation between people out of work and PIP, which has NOTHING to do with work status.

As the dust settles, spending review leaves me seriously doubting this analysis we published suggesting employment support could deliver an extra 50k people onto work. If there is no new money for DWP how will radical new employment support be delivered? www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

This chart shows how the government's affordable homes commitment compares to previous levels of funding. More than since the financial crisis, but slightly lower in real terms than under the last Labour government.

As we crunch the numbers, it is basically clear that the winners are health and defence (and not much else). Of the real growth in spending over the next three years 90% of the increase in day to day spending goes to health; and for capital spending almost 4/5ths goes on defence.

This table confirms no change to the RDEL envelope, and a small reprofiling of the CDEL envelope - so basically spending review delivered within the totals Treasury had available.

Confirmation in the Treasury documents that the growth rate for health is 2.8% over the next three years, and 3.0% for NHS.

And we're off. Rachel Reeves stands up to deliver the spending review....