🎄It’s nearly Christmas which means it’s time for the Top of the Charts quiz of the year buff.ly/U64m34M 🎄 And you can read the Top of the Charts Christmas special now➡️ buff.ly/xZTJGCJ

As expected, BoE cuts rates by 0.25ppts to 3.75%, the sixth cut in this cycle on a tighter-than-expected 5-4 vote. Bigger question for today, though, is how BoE sees balance of stubborn inflation and a weakening labour market. A short thread on that to follow...

Labor markets weakness is all about uncertainty, not AI. www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...

@nyecominetti.bsky.social piece from yesterday important context for today's labour market stats. ALL of the change in the employment rate since the pandemic is due to unemployment - a lack of jobs not a lack of jobseekers.

Some worry that some non-working families will benefit from the lifting of the two child limit. But when you dig into the data, as we do in chart of the week, over 95% of the families who benefit are either working, have a child under 3, or have a family member with a disability.

Updated child poverty forecasts reflecting latest forecast and child poverty strategy. Poverty set to fall through the Parliament - we estimate by a chunky 300k but by a less chunky 1%. That's because the number of kids in the population is also falling.

Updating our projections for the latest data and forecasts from the OBR, we project that child poverty rates will fall to 31 per cent by 2029-30, 3.5 percentage points lower than would have been the case in the absence of policy changes …

How will changes in the Budget impact different types of households?

I'm in the FT! Fun fact that didn't make the cut. Scrooge lived somewhere near Cornhill so we reckon will, post mansion tax, pay 0.2% of the value of his property from that and CT combined. Tiny Tim rents in Camden in a band D property so will pay 0.4%.

End of a busy week! Read for our take on the Budget, and mine on the OBR antics.

Classic Budget week moment: you think you've got a great idea for a chart and then you discover the OBR have done it already. Beautiful illustration of the backloading at this event.

Grateful if the Minister for Pensions could keep the noise down...

Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.

UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...

Latest fascinating & comprehensive analysis from the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk team of Labour’s public services performance… www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

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Excessive levels of Budget kite-flying risk exacerbating market uncertainty @ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget

Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...

Brilliant report from centax and others out yesterday. With even small tax changes seemingly able to wreck political reputations, we have to hope some appetite remains for the really big reforms that could boost growth. share.google/H8VbJvxsT5GZ...

My first op-ed! What a day for it. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Thanks to @oecdgovernance.bsky.social for inviting me to write a blog on communicating the public finances. I am slightly obsessed with the how big is a billion issue - send me your favourite analogies! www.oecd.org/en/blogs/202...

Rare opportunity. We are currently recruiting for a member of our senior leadership team to take forward our work on productivity and growth. Do get in touch if interested. www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp...

Recruitment has begun for a new National Statistician (£200k). Important role as the strategic head of the UK statistical system. There is less operational work as there is now a Perm Sec for ONS. So they are seeking an ‘internationally recognised leader in statistics’ www.saxbam.com/appointment/...

Things I learnt from our excellent panel today 1) we should set a target/ambition for NEETs not just state the problem 2) need to worry about whether any of local growth fund is going into employment support and 3) other countries target apprenticeship schemes much more successfully than the UK

This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...

Through successive governments a shadow tax and benefits system has emerged in energy bills worth £7bn. New report out today says government should fix this system, and reduce energy bills for households. www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...

PM says on radio that there are 1m young people on benefits. Presume he meant 1m young people not in education employment or training. Only about half of them claim benefits.

There's good news and bad news on household incomes. While we've seen healthy income growth in the past 18 months, incomes have yet to recover from the cost of living crisis. ⬇️

More on the frequency of fiscal events this morning. Most important thing to understand here is that our fiscal problems are NOT caused by too many events (or OBR forecasts)- they reflect weak growth and higher interest rates that have left the public finances stretched, making decisions difficult.

Supposedly age has replaced class as the big divide in British politics. For Chart of the Week, we've examined the dramatic evolution of Labour's vote share across the age and income distribution 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/2SuQ8TJ

Report out on tax options for the Budget. 2p income tax rise alongside 2p national insurance cut would mean no tax rise for an employee whose income comes from a job. With employment overtaxed at the moment, workers pay packets should be protected and distortions in the tax system removed.

Key point from James on the public sector finances this morning. Receipts weakness important for the forecast. One more month of data will make it into OBR calcs.

Poverty rate data from the IFS: ifs.org.uk/living-stand... Comparative international pension data from the OECD: stat.link/v8jpaz Post-2010 policy impact from Resolution Foundation: www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/... ENDS

New piece out today on recent market moves. Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.

Great to have Sophie back!

You can see more about my comments at the summit here #HousingCommunitySummit

Great to open the housing community summit today. Struck by the optimism of the sector around the Social and Affordable homes programme; but concerns on workforce (not just construction, also surveyors) and planning capacity. 🧵#HousingCommunitySummit

While it is sad to see the depth of problems at the ONS, it is heartening to see mistakes owned up to honestly and transparently. The start of fixing. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Fantastic to work with @anandmenon.bsky.social and others on this report out this morning. Big takeaway from our panel - is the government prepared to take on fights this Autumn to make progress on these challenges. Nothing left to lose, or the window of opportunity to be bold already passed?

Re the mini shuffle my thoughts are with the Treasury officials who have to get used to having two ministers called chief secretary in government. Who will "the chief" refer to? www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cv...

Excited to do this collaboration with @anandmenon.bsky.social next week - come along!

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Thanks to Gregory Thwaites, @nyecominetti.bsky.social and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social who spent the summer trying to work out what's really going on in the jobs market. We mustn't let concerns about the stats stop us worrying about rising unemployment which looks real and not over on.ft.com/45S2Luf

Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...

Amid wealth tax discussion, it's worth reflecting on recent changes in tax takes across the income distribution. Combining all payments (ie income taxes and VAT etc), the richest and poorest pay the most as a share of their gross income. But rates are down markedly in the middle of the distribution

This highlights a fundamental question for the review: should policy aim to deliver full adequacy for all, or act as a foundation that leaves space for individual choices and top-ups? The Pensions Commission was clear that it should be the latter.

Tonight, Rachel Reeves delivers her Mansion House speech, and we expect she’ll announce the long-awaited review into pension adequacy (alongside other reforms such as financial deregulation).