Report out on tax options for the Budget. 2p income tax rise alongside 2p national insurance cut would mean no tax rise for an employee whose income comes from a job. With employment overtaxed at the moment, workers pay packets should be protected and distortions in the tax system removed.

Key point from James on the public sector finances this morning. Receipts weakness important for the forecast. One more month of data will make it into OBR calcs.

Poverty rate data from the IFS: ifs.org.uk/living-stand... Comparative international pension data from the OECD: stat.link/v8jpaz Post-2010 policy impact from Resolution Foundation: www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/... ENDS

New piece out today on recent market moves. Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.

Great to have Sophie back!

You can see more about my comments at the summit here #HousingCommunitySummit

Great to open the housing community summit today. Struck by the optimism of the sector around the Social and Affordable homes programme; but concerns on workforce (not just construction, also surveyors) and planning capacity. 🧵#HousingCommunitySummit

While it is sad to see the depth of problems at the ONS, it is heartening to see mistakes owned up to honestly and transparently. The start of fixing. www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Fantastic to work with @anandmenon.bsky.social and others on this report out this morning. Big takeaway from our panel - is the government prepared to take on fights this Autumn to make progress on these challenges. Nothing left to lose, or the window of opportunity to be bold already passed?

Re the mini shuffle my thoughts are with the Treasury officials who have to get used to having two ministers called chief secretary in government. Who will "the chief" refer to? www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cv...

Excited to do this collaboration with @anandmenon.bsky.social next week - come along!

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Thanks to Gregory Thwaites, @nyecominetti.bsky.social and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social who spent the summer trying to work out what's really going on in the jobs market. We mustn't let concerns about the stats stop us worrying about rising unemployment which looks real and not over on.ft.com/45S2Luf

Key release of UK GDP this morning, not least for the government which is hoping for some signs of growth... In the event, growth was higher than expected at 0.3% in Q2, but still slowed sharply from 0.7% in Q1. Lots going on in the data here - thread on all that to follow...

Amid wealth tax discussion, it's worth reflecting on recent changes in tax takes across the income distribution. Combining all payments (ie income taxes and VAT etc), the richest and poorest pay the most as a share of their gross income. But rates are down markedly in the middle of the distribution

This highlights a fundamental question for the review: should policy aim to deliver full adequacy for all, or act as a foundation that leaves space for individual choices and top-ups? The Pensions Commission was clear that it should be the latter.

Tonight, Rachel Reeves delivers her Mansion House speech, and we expect she’ll announce the long-awaited review into pension adequacy (alongside other reforms such as financial deregulation).

A good day for fiscal nerds - OBR's fiscal risk and sustainability report is out. Always worth a read. Quite striking that they have chosen to open with a particularly stark reminder of the vulnerability of the UK fiscal position. Some favourite charts to follow. obr.uk/frs/fiscal-r...

Great discussion this morning. Extremely striking chart to open today's report too - the end of low pay in Britain @nyecominetti.bsky.social

The latest u-turn looks to be removing all PIP changes from the bill. Remaining net savings in the crucial year for fiscal rules of....about zero. Doesn't mean the bill is nothing though: still very important changes to, and a sensible rebalancing of, universal credit (with savings in future years)

Quite shocking developments at Abrdn financial fairness trust, which has been a great partner for us at RF. www.thetimes.com/article/7d69...

Today is also the day the government's consultation on the welfare reform green paper closes. Lots of big changes in there which are separate from the bill. Great piece from @louisemurphy.bsky.social on some of the key one. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Some more details this morning on the welfare bill concessions. Things we learn: 1) it is overall UC income that will be protected in real terms for existing recipients, so the UC-health element goes up somewhere between the original policy to freeze in cash terms and inflation.

For anyone thinking of joining last minutes this morning just to confirm - we have aircon!

We've got a quick rundown on what you need to know about the recently announced changes in next week's benefits bill *PLUS* Chart of the week looks ahead to how disposable incomes will fare by 2030... 👛 Read this week's Top of the charts now ⤵️ buff.ly/mbgMjm5

Latest living standards outlook out. Enjoyed discussing with Vicky Pryce @danrcorry.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social 1)we just had a good year for incomes. Employee NICs cuts played a part, but Vicky Pryce says they are the real cause of the black hole & haven't led to consumer confidence boost

How has the outlook for living standards changed over the last year? Join our event tomorrow to hear from Vicky Pryce @danrcorry.bsky.social‬ @adamcorlett.bsky.social‬ @ruthcurtice.bsky.social‬ on the outlook for different households, and how policy could improve this. Sign-up ➡️ buff.ly/zbgWCct

Great thread from Louise on the bill. 13 week wait good news. DWP press notice is a further masterclass in conflation between people out of work and PIP, which has NOTHING to do with work status.

As the dust settles, spending review leaves me seriously doubting this analysis we published suggesting employment support could deliver an extra 50k people onto work. If there is no new money for DWP how will radical new employment support be delivered? www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

This chart shows how the government's affordable homes commitment compares to previous levels of funding. More than since the financial crisis, but slightly lower in real terms than under the last Labour government.

As we crunch the numbers, it is basically clear that the winners are health and defence (and not much else). Of the real growth in spending over the next three years 90% of the increase in day to day spending goes to health; and for capital spending almost 4/5ths goes on defence.

This table confirms no change to the RDEL envelope, and a small reprofiling of the CDEL envelope - so basically spending review delivered within the totals Treasury had available.

Confirmation in the Treasury documents that the growth rate for health is 2.8% over the next three years, and 3.0% for NHS.

And we're off. Rachel Reeves stands up to deliver the spending review....

Big day in Westminster today. But big implications for the whole country. A "zero-based" spending review means the government has been through all public spending and decided its priorities line by line. Follow for analysis through the day.

This morning’s labour market stats mark another month of a weakening jobs market and slowing pay growth. Thread and charts from me and @nyecominetti.bsky.social...

Today the Government announced that Winter Fuel Payment eligibility will be extended to all pensioners with income below £35,000, with the payments to be restored from this winter. A quick thread on what this means and how it will work...

Big change of heart from the government on winter fuel. Last winter just over 10% of pensioners got winter fuel, this winter it will be over three quarters. At Resolution, we estimate that 43% of the winners from today's announcement are in the top half of the income distribution.

Rumours that health has been settled at 2.8% would imply everyone else apart from health, defence and education at getting on average basically flat real per person

With the Spending Review now a week away, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social break down five things to look out for next week: buff.ly/BLx1kng

In one chart - why a government focused on living standards for all would not have winter fuel U-turn as the priority.

Blog on the government's three big benefit battles. I fear the brutal maths means concessions on winter fuel mean less money for disability and child poverty. Looking at living standards trends across the piece - children would be the priority. www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/what...

Not clear precisely what Kier Starmer has actually announced on winter fuel payments. The most sensible thing would be to link eligibility to a winder range of benefits that just pension credit, cost £300m and extend winter fuel payments to 1.3 million more pensioners.

Government spokesman on our analysis today says it paints a "partial picture". Better than no picture! We shouldn't have to estimate the economic benefit of government reforms - they should tell us, before they ask MPs to vote. on.ft.com/4muusku

Good discussion this morning. 1. Striking to hear Stephen Brien say the government needs a clearer policy rationale for it's disability reform. Reminded me I've stopped asking why is 4 point minimum the right threshold? But we haven't actually had an answer!

Today we’ve published research on rumoured options for easing the 2-child limit without fully scrapping it. In short, none of the options rumoured to be on the table is an acceptable solution and most would bring cliff edges or distortions into the system www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...