With Andy Burnhnam looking ever more likely to be the next PM, what tough decisions lie ahead for him? Turns out the new trade-offs look a lot like the old trade-offs. @ruthcurtice.bsky.social breaks down the challenges – from living standards to public services – in 5 charts ⬇️ buff.ly/vTEZMib

Very pleased that bbc verify have now corrected their chart based on our points - kudos to them for listening www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Fun to be back in the weeds of public sector finances data to appear on world@1 today. The high debt-interest today is a one off thanks to the jump in inflation in March. Debt interest forecasts in the autumn will depend on whether yields are higher or lower in the ten days the OBR happen to use.

This 'bloody southerners' thing may well have worked well for the King of the North in Makerfield. Whether it'll help him should he become King of the South, West and East as well is open to question.... (h/t @ruthcurtice.bsky.social)

There’ll be a good weather impact, but even so - retail sales well ahead of expectations in May. www.ons.gov.uk/businessindu...

Continuing signs of a weak labour market in this mornings data. And a very striking rise in zero hours contract - see Louise's brilliant thread for more.

As debates rage about where to get the money for higher defence spending, it’s important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around. Thread 🧵⤵️

🧵It’s time to stop being polite about the triple lock! It was always a poorly designed, unfair, arbitrary ratchet and we can no longer afford it. New @resolutionfoundation.org spotlight out this morning🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Today, my book finally enters the big wide world! Exciting and also nerve-wracking! I'm really thrilled with this lovely review in The Spectator today, which describes it as "powerful and refreshing". If that sounds like YOUR cup of tea, please buy a copy! spectator.com/article/will...

If you missed @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com then you missed 1) why this isn't all about Trump 2) why the UK will need to pick a side and 3) how to arm yourself in the fight. But don't worry you can buy the book! Everything you wanted to know about trade but were too afraid to ask.

Guess who’s in London and excited for our talks this week at the Resolution Foundation (tomorrow) and the LSE (Thursday)?!!?? PS the ukulele may or may not be making an appearance tomorrow - but only in person so you should DEFINITELY brave the tube strike

"If people felt better off, the Government would be getting a lower penalty on its handling of other things" @profjanegreen.bsky.social spoke to us about whether higher living standards the key to electoral success. Subscribe to High Resolution wherever you get your podcasts ⤵️ buff.ly/xAvHIV0

IMF's review of the UK is v positive in the scheme of these things. Fiscal&growth policy on the right track. One v significant nugget "the long-term scope for further revenue increases is becoming limited unless more fundamental tax reforms are envisaged" www.imf.org/en/news/arti...

Enjoyed the solid debates this morning at our event about whether Sunak, Boris, or Thatcher represent the most appropriate analogy for current times. But for the Sunak camp it did start pouring it down in Westminster about ten mins after Wes announcement.

Bank of England follows the Fed and holds its policy rate at 3.75% given uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. BoE hints it will be patient on raising rates but the bigger issue is its assessment of the impact of the war. Thread on all that to follow...

What happens when you increase the Irish talent at RF....kudos to @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social for this chart of the week to lighten the mood as beer garden weather finally kicks in.

Looking forward to this one already - that moment when your clever friend writes an awesome book and you get to interview them about it on stage! @soumayakeynes.ft.com www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/how-t...

Great event. It is hard to size economic effects through uncertainty but policymakers can't "wait and see" forever so we have to try. The Bank face their next decision in a month and the government has time before deciding whether to provide energy bill support.

For our chart of the week we've dug into the data on school absences. Worryingly, the rate of severe school absences is rising. And there's a lot of regional variation, with London performing significantly better. Read the full newletter from @ruthcurtice.bsky.social ⤵️ buff.ly/SdrRmBm

Pre-Middle East conflict UK economic data from ONS: GDP rose by 0.5% in February Unemployment fell from 5.3 to 4.9% in January Borrowing in February £1.9bn below the OBR forecast Positive trends now all at risk. No wonder the Chancellor is seething in Washington…

Good to see removing the Carbon Price Support form part of this. Something @resolutionfoundation.org suggested way back in 2023

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social times column this week is an incredibly pithy (even by his standards!) summary of the issues and changes in working age welfare - including why spending on it isn't out of control.

Today we discussed new research from @resolutionfoundation.org co-authored with @gthwaites.bsky.social @annastansbury.bsky.social and Richmond Egyei on the long shadow that deep poverty in childhood casts over the earnings of graduates in the labour market. Thread below on what we found …

Important report out today. Child poverty isn't just bad, it causes a lasting earnings penalty. Perhaps some gap is not so surprising. But I was shocked by the scale of the penalty persisting even for children who go to university, get the same degree and work for the same firm.

Come and shape the future of the Nuffield Foundation. A new & key leadership role at the UK’s leading independent funder of social & economic research. We fund evidence, back innovation & support pioneering practice. Join a great team at an exciting moment. roles.saxbam.com/advert-detai...

I've been wondering this week whether we are all (myself included) talking too much about energy prices and not enough about food.

Brilliant thread from Elliott unpacking this mornings public sector finances

Today’s labour market stats were better than expected – headline unemployment didn’t rise thanks to a surprise Jan single month number, and payrolled jobs rose. Real wages are still growing (slowly), but war in the middle east clouds the outlook there. Thread from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social

Bank of England keeps rates at 3.75% on a striking unanimous vote. All eyes on how the BoE might change tack in the face of renewed energy shock. Thread on that to follow…

Good session at the TSC's Inquiry into the OBR. Thanks to @julianhjessop.bsky.social for the football analogy that survived the whole evidence session. Think we ended up all agreeing on one thing: the referee is not mainly to blame for the low growth high debt situation the UK finds itself in.

The number of Mais lectures delivered by a woman currently rising by 25%. On that basis alone glad Rachel took two shots.

Disappointing UK GDP this morning with the economy flatlining in January. Bit surprising given survey suggesting a brighter start to the year. Outlook is now clouded by conflict in Iran. Plenty for the Chancellor to worry about as she prepares for next week's Mais lecture. Short thread to follow...

Really enjoyed recording this podcast with @gilesyb.bsky.social and @jamessmithrf.bsky.social . Check out our discussion of where the spring forecast leaves the UK and growth policy in particular.

In her speech yesterday, the Chancellor said the question people will be asking themselves at the next election is "are me and my family better off?" So what is the answer likely to be? 🧵

Despite insisting this was not a fiscal event, Government policy decisions added £5.7 billion to borrowing, mostly due to higher SEND spending. Ranking all fiscal events since 2010 by their impact on borrowing, today's Forecast is in the bigger half of fiscal events.

Live commentary on Chancellor's speech coming up. Expect to be told some version of "the plan is working" with themes on stable public finances, growth and cost of living. More unusually for only about 20 minutes!

Things to watch out for next Tuesday: GDP downgrade, unemployment upgrade, migration change. No red box but still a top panel to digest it all the next day!

📢 New price cap announcement this morning! Ofgem have confirmed there will be a 7 per cent fall in energy price cap in Q2 2026, boosting living standards for lower-income households. Find out more ⤵️ buff.ly/K29q0KX

A state of the (poorer half of) the nation debate! Great chat on social, political and economic change of the last generation with @ruthcurtice.bsky.social & Scarlett Maguire www.youtube.com/watch?v=42ft... (or Audio-only podcast here: resolutionfoundation.podbean.com/e/who-are-un...)

Today's consultation on SEND spending (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/699862...) shows why policy announcements shd come with fiscal events. It *seems* to contain new money, but isn't clear how it will be funded or what it means for the fiscal rules. Thread on what is going on to follow...

Today's SEND announcements a good example of why it is best to make spending/tax announcements all together in a fiscal event. Lack of clarity about how much money is new (seems like £3.5bn is genuinely additional to previously announced totals), what it means for existing pressures or future years.

Why reliable data matters in one picture The UK's productivity performance is either: - still rubbish; or - improving greatly after a terrible spell You choose

UK inflation data out this morning shows a sharp, broad-based fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in December to 3.0% in January - this is welcome good news. Inflation should now normalise rapidly in the coming months for the first time since before the pandemic. Thread to follow...

Good to hear that Millburn is being comprehensive in his review when he spoke on today programme this morning. Clearly, though, with today's stats demand for young workers is part of the problem - not just supply of them.

Big signing here for the government (and civil service) as Prof Brian Bell becomes Chief Economic Advisor at the Treasury. Brian will bring much-needed economic rigour and expertise, as well as adding A LOT of drive and energy to UK economic policymaking.

If you missed our packed Unsung Britain conference yesterday you can watch it back! www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...

🚨 New Living Standards Outlook published today! 🚨 This year will see a welcome boost to living standards... which we sadly expect to be short-lived. @louisemurphy.bsky.social explains 👇 buff.ly/siFTYAC

Read 200 pages of our new book here www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... Or — if you’re in a rush — read @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social’s summary piece below, which does an amazing job of boiling the gist of it down to 900-odd words

Chart of the week gives you a sneak peak into 'Unsung Britain' – a new book we're publishing on Tuesday. It shows that in the six years leading to last autumn, annualised inflation experienced by the poorest families ran at a rate that was 0.7 percentage points faster than for the richest families

Fantastic thread from Simon on today's MPC decision