How is Labour’s 2024 vote shifting. In our latest poll there is a broadly even left/right split in our polling with slightly more Labour voters going Reform than Green and equal parts Tory and Liberal Democrat.

Small changes in this week’s voting intention as Reform’s lead grows to 5pts over the Tories and 7 over Labour ➡️ REF UK 27% (+2) 🌳 CON 22% (nc) 🌹 LAB 20% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 12% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-1) ❓OTH 5% (+2) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1) N = 2,235 | Fieldwork 17-20/4 | Changes w/ 5/4

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Tomorrow at 1:30 we’ll be hosting our first pre-election webinar. Open to everyone who is interested we’ll be talking through our Scotland and Wales MRPs out tomorrow as well as latest insights from England’s local elections. Sign up here moreincommon.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Opinium matching our finding this week of Farage on his lowest approval this parliament. From qual the Trump effect is making that second 15% have doubts about if a Reform led Britain would be the same. If locals are v.good won’t matter short term, but points to long term Trump challenge for Reform

🧪 We have a major new report out today with @wellcometrust.bsky.social on trust in science. While we find that the UK has so far avoided the polarisation of science we see elsewhere and science is a source of optimism. There are signs the public’s trust is becoming lukewarm & conditional.

🧪 We have a major new report out today with @wellcometrust.bsky.social on trust in science. While we find that the UK has so far avoided the polarisation of science we see elsewhere and science is a source of optimism. There are signs the public’s trust is becoming lukewarm & conditional.

Schroedingers Strait of Hormuz

26 minutes of good news.

Really cool use of some of our data by @economist.com in their “build a voter tool” looking at the likelihood of voting for different parties based on demographics - such an interesting insight into quite how fragmented - almost personalised our politics has become. www.economist.com/interactive/...

Our brand new podcast the Opinion Brief is out! We discuss - The state of the polls & have Reform plateaued - Are Green voters still green - Why many think the social contract is broken - Do Brits back social media bans Take a listen & let us know what you think open.spotify.com/episode/4bw3...

Our brand new podcast the Opinion Brief is out! We discuss - The state of the polls & have Reform plateaued - Are Green voters still green - Why many think the social contract is broken - Do Brits back social media bans Take a listen & let us know what you think open.spotify.com/episode/4bw3...

Reform drops to 25% in this weeks voting intention their lowest since April 2025. They lead the Tories by 3 & Labour by 4 ➡️ REF UK 25% (-5) 🌳 CON 22% (+3) 🌹 LAB 21% (+1) 🌍 GREEN 13% (+1) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc) ❓OTH 3% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,011 | 10-13/4 | Change w/ 8/4

What does your milk preference in tea and coffee say about your politics? 🐄If only cow milk drinkers could vote Reform would have a big lead, especially among those who like semi-skimmed. 🌱Labour on the other hand has commanding leads among almond and oat milk drinkers.

This ⬇️ in every focus group feelings of insecurity, cost of living crisis, “not living, just surviving” dominate and it’s clearly not because theyre misled by the media as some allege - they’re talking about actual cut backs/degredations in quality of life they’ve made in spite of “the data”

🧵With EU relations and alignment back in the news most Brits say, across a series of areas, they want at least a slightly closer relationship with Europe than the one Britain has at the moment.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿“I want to wake up & not have to worry & go to sleep without having to worry” Spent the weekend in focus groups across south Wales from Cardiff to Merthyr, to Port Talbot & Pembroke Dock, above all else we heard deep pessimism about the state of Wales, the UK & the wider world

🇺🇸💔🇬🇧Our new polling finds that just 38% think of the United States as an ally of the UK, the lowest that we have recorded since Donald Trump’s return to the US Presidency. 35% believe they are neither allies nor enemies and 17% also a high believe they are enemies.

Suspect Magyar will be studied as a campaign for the ages and lessons on defeating authoritarian populism and big tent politics, particularly as someone who is a fairly conservative figure on the right was able to win support across the spectrum.

Fantastic piece from Aamna Mohdin which helps debunk the very simplistic myth that Gaza is the sole or really the main reason some Muslim voters are abandoning Labour. All our work suggests Gaza instead crystallised much deeper feelings of being taken for granted. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

If test for electoral strategy is picking up votes & in the right areas then May will likely show Polanskism has worked in a way “cuddly environmentalism” was struggling to cut through. Opportunity for Greens this Parliament was always progressive disillusionment www.thetimes.com/article/9308...

late to this from James Marriott but it’s one of the best pieces I’ve read this year because going beyond day to day politics/struggles people share in focus groups it captures something bigger we hear - that we’ve passed our prime & it’s all been down hill for years www.thetimes.com/article/d123...

With children (and some adults) looking forward to their Easter Eggs tomorrow. What is the nations favourite Easter Egg? Lindt was the clear winner in our poll. The top write in option was Dairy Milk followed by Smarties, which arguably should have been options.

As it is Good Friday what do Britons think Christian values are? Top is ‘treating others as you would like to be treated’, forgiveness and compassion for those who are suffering. While values associated with debates around ‘Christian Nationalism’ come to the bottom of the list

Another e.g. of a relatively small policy but one which helps address an every day irk, and a costly one too. Over past year Government has seemed to get much better at doing more of these tackling 'every day frustrations' policies and small cost of living fixes. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Just in case anyone didn't get it - this was an April Fool, but some suggestions of what to ask were so good I was *almost* tempted to give it a go Considered an April Fool Voting intention, but problem is nothing seems implausible enough to joke about these days 😬 (Other than maybe a Binface surge)

On the day of the new energy price cap, and with the Chancellor confirming any energy bill support will be based on household income, our new research with @electrifygb.bsky.social finds that energy bills have now overtaken food as people's biggest cost of living concern.

As we approach midday, can you do April fools day pranks after 12.00? Most of us think not, but Gen Z are more liberal with two thirds saying that's its acceptable to do Aprils fools pranks anytime that day.

Fed up of domestic rows with your other half? - When does the heating go on? - What’s for dinner? - Do we have to rinse plates before the dishwasher? Now you can end those rows with our new service “Settle It” & let the public pick who is right in a nationally representative poll

With a few former PMs offering their advice to Starmer in recent weeks which past occupants of No10 (plus a few others) do people think it's worth Government listening to? Major & Brown are the only two where the public are more likely to say they're worth listening to than not

Some of our data in this - Many online right figures v unpopular not just with wider public but also swing Reform voters. Robinson has a + 15 positive with 2024 Reform voters a - 11 with newer ones down to -15 with women. Tate at -51 with new female reform voters www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Certainly took those few days of sun for granted as it starts hailing (?!) in London to mark the end of March

Iran and war in the Middle East continues to dominate the news stories that people have heard about over last week. However Meningitis and Kent also appear on this week’s word cloud.

Small changes in voting intention but Reform drop to their lowest share since July 2025 on 27%, leading the Tories by 7 & Labour by 8. ➡️ REF UK 27% (-1) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🌹 LAB 19% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 12% (-1) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1) N = 2,408 | 20-22/3| Change w 18/03

Striking eg of how Britons do not reflexively now pick the US’s side on global affairs. Asked who they sympathise with more in the Iran conflict - 19 per cent of Britons say Israel and the US while 13 per cent say Iran. However a majority either say neither, both or aren’t sure.

Our new research for @nationaltrust.org.uk finds that after the NHS it’s Britain’s countryside and nature and historic buildings and architecture that are their biggest sources of pride in the UK.

🩰🎶Bit depressing (imo at least) but Timothy Chalamet's comments about ballet & opera chime with a majority of Brits 63% of Brits say they don't care about the continued existence of Opera, 64% say same of Ballet Gen X are least likely to say they don't care, over 80s the most

Given suggestions the Government should go further in subsidising bills again because of the conflict in Iran we wanted to look at what sort of govt interventions/policies were/weren't affordable. 50% think govt could subsidise bills to stop the impact of the war, 38% disagree

Small changes to this week’s voting intention. Reform & Labour down slightly, Tories & Greens up. Reform lead Tories by 7 ➡️ REF UK 28% (-2) 🌳 CON 21% (+2) 🌹 LAB 20% (-2) 🌍 GREEN 13% (+2) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1) ❓OTH 4% (+1) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,402 | 13-16/3| Change w 9/03

Happy St Patrick’s Day ☘️ We polled how many pints of Guinness people think they’d be able to drink in one sitting, for most it’s 0-2. Liberal Democrat voters stand out (unusually!) as being the most likely to say they could drink more than 8 pints of Guinness in one sitting.

With historical figures set to be replaced on banknotes with wildlife. How does voting intention vary by which animal people would most like to see on a bank note? 🌹🦌Bambi fans must vote Labour as the party leads among those who fancy a deer on their cash.

94% of Britain's MPs are on X - I've made a website so you can explore who they follow on there. 🔍Search for any username and see which MPs follow them. 🏅There's also a leaderboard so you can see who has the ear of Westminster Link here: site.mpfollowers.workers.dev

🧵 There are risks to Govt in a targeted bills subsidy, if they are going to win argument will have to learn from winter fuel and other welfare rows. First need to land argument that hasn't been ever won on UC - that it isn't just helping people out of work, but people on low pay (& pensioners)

Reform lead by 8 in this week’s voting intention. Labour jump up 4 from their low last week, while the Greens drop back post Gorton ➡️ REF UK 30% (+1) 🌹 LAB 22% (+4) 🌳 CON 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (-3) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) N = 2,112 | 6-9/3| Change w 2/03

🆕 🇬🇧 vs🇺🇸 Most Brits now want a Love Actually moment from Keir Starmer. In Jan 2025, Brits were more likely to say Starmer should prioritise working with Trump than standing up to him. Today that has flipped 55% think priority is standing up to Trump, just 27% working with him

🏳️‍🌈At the very end of last year we looked again at voting intention by sexual orientation ➡️Reform led 🌹Labour by 11 with straight men ➡️Reform led 🌳Tories by 6 with straight women ➡️Reform led 💚Greens by 6 with gay & bisexual men 💚Greens led 🌹Labour by 16 (!) among gay & bisexual women

🧵Speculation about Tory reshuffle means its worth looking at whether there has been any Badenoch bounce? The data I think unambiguously shows there has, the fact it is not translating into change in party ratings is arguably a worse sign for Tories than if there hadn't been one

Worth reading by @chriscurtis94.bsky.social. Abundantly clear to anyone that spends a cursory amount of time on public opinion that economic insecurity, exacerbated 10x by cost of living crisis is driving political force of our time, fuelling Labour’s woes chriscurtismk.substack.com/p/who-actual...

New 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿Senedd voting intention. Reform UK down and now neck-and-neck with Plaid, while the Greens jump up to tie the Conservatives. ➡️ REF UK 26% (–5) 🌼 PLAID 26% (+2) 🌹 LAB 20% (nc) 🌳 CON 10% (–3) 🔶 LIB DEM 7% (+1) 🌍 GREEN 10% (+5) N=851, 15/2-3/3 Change with 10/2

📕It's world book day! So how does favourite children's book vary by voting intention. Despite having been dragged into the culture wars, Paddington is top choice of Tory and Reform voters, for Labour voters it's the Snowman while Winne-the-Pooh comes out on top with Green voters