🧵Burnham announcements on bills/bus fares have a very 'bread/butter' feel & reprioritise from long term to now. Truth is lots of public are frustrated with 18 years of language around 'tough choices for long term change' that never comes & want govt to show it can help in here/now

Two objections to energy VAT cut I think are misplaced in public opinion terms. Objection 1. So much of cost of living is out of govts hands and international why raise salience and say you can deal with it? Well first salience is already there it’s number 1 driver of misery we hear

Seen a few people saying rough sleeping policy isn’t aimed at median public concern. Quite apart from any policy/moral imperative it really is - rough sleeping comes up time again in focus groups as one of the most visible signs of Broken Britain and community decline!

To call Britain ungovernable is to give up... It suggests that on the issues the public care most about... the government is powerless to deliver. It risks becoming self-fulfilling. The new PM Andy Burnham must embrace the politics of trying, writes @luketryl.bsky.social

Most interesting thing from that speech was both in terms of content but also delivery it gave a sense of real urgency that I think better matches the public mood than trying to pitch 'dignified statesman' like previous entrances to Number 10.

Dear Prime Minister, I'm afraid there are no lecterns left, kind regards and good luck.

🆕 Our final MRP of the Starmer Premiership and state of play of parties heading into new govt. Reform are estimated to be by far the largest party though drop back from majority territory from previous models. (Reposted as last post copied previous MRP map)

As we come to the end of the latest burst of warm weather what do Britons think about heatwaves? Asked at the end of the June heatwaves and climate, people's unsurprising top reaction was 'Hot' but that was followed by unbeatable, uncomfortable, worried, concerned and exhausted

Today at 12, we're hosting our latest webinar: what do Britons want from Burnham? Join us as we share new polling and focus groups, digging into public priorities & expectations, and Labour’s potential support base as its new leader takes over. Sign up moreincommon.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

The gap narrows slightly as Reform leads Labour and the Tories by 4pts in this weeks voting intention. ➡️ REF UK 26% (-1)
🌳 CON 22% (nc)
🌹 LAB 22% (+1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (+1)
🌍 GREEN 12% (+2)
❓ OTH 2% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,198 | Fieldwork 10-13/7  | Changes w 8/7

This really captures news & public consciousness. One thing about regular focus groups is you get to see things emerging in 'the slow lane', to use Stephen's e.g on Boris, I remember focus grouping what was supposed to be the 2021 triumph budget and coming away thinking the shine was coming off.

Interesting on perceptions of how left wing Burnham & Starmer are. On 0-10 scale: Average Brit, Labour's voters lost left, right & loyalists all place Burnham at 3 But differ on Starmer. All Brits & Lab right put Starmer also at 3 but Lab left and loyalists put him dead centre

Interesting from Peter Kellner on what has happened to the electorate since 2024 - essentially the size of the 'right bloc' has increased because of between left-right bloc switching and there has been an exceptional amount of in bloc switching too - both matter kellnerp.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...

Utterly horrific, hope that the suspect is identified and found quickly. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...

On this week’s Opinion Brief pod we look at the voting intention by taste in pop music. One of my favourites yet! (reposting without duplicates) - full pod episode here: www.youtube.com/@OpinionBrie...

Bumper Opinion Brief Podcast out! - What voters think of Farage’s £5 million gift - With @AnnaCMcShane how are failings in maternity care affecting women’s trust in public services. - Why cost of living is still shaping politics - What pop artists say about your politics tr.ee/KasOq-wGy2

Reform lead the Tories by 5 in this week’s voting intention, with Labour just into third. ➡️ REF UK 27% (-1)
🌳 CON 22% (+2)
🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-1)
🌍 GREEN 10% (nc)
❓ OTH 5% (+2)
 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,119 | Fieldwork 3-6/7 | Changes w 28/6

On the Farage revelations reason they have the potential to be so damaging is less the ins and outs of declarations and parliamentary ethics, but more just the scale of things involved seems so far removed from people’s everyday lives and make it harder to see him as “for you”.

Labour bump up 3 this week their highest share in almost a year narrowing Reform’s lead to 4, while the Tories drop back 2. ➡️ REF UK 28% (nc)
🌹 LAB 24% (+3)
🌳CON 20% (-2)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 10% (nc)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1) N = 2,852 | 26-28/6 | Changes w/ 22/6

Latest edition of @moreincommonuk.bsky.social Opinion Brief Podcast out today! - Could Number 10 north finally meet public expectations on levelling up - What is the state of the battle for the right with - World Cup and hydration breaks Listen here: linktr.ee/OpinionBrief...

Our latest energy tracker with @electrifygb.bsky.social. Finds many Brits pessimistic energy bills will ever be more affordable. But Labour loyalists, those who backed Labour in 24 & still would are more hopeful. Challenge for Burnham will be extending optimism govt can do things to help

What’s happening on the battle for the right? Reform continue to hold a big lead on who people would pick as the main party of the right, but their lead has halved from 26pts over the Tories on that question in May to 12pts in June.

Think people underestimate quite how much the British love wildlife/nature (often above projects focused on people). Attenboroughism among British public is deep & real -across ideological boundaries. Extinction/deforestation gets people uniquely animated in groups. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Written for today's @thetimes.com on how recent elections show the 'insider vs outside' cleavage is upending traditional 'left vs right' electoral competition. Rather than just focusing on swing voters there are 3 things parties need to do to win in the new landscape www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Not one for rants by nature but Britain is ungovernable narrative drives me mad, it’s a cop out & if people buy it, it will make it harder to actually solve the big problems. Why I think recent changes of PM can’t be blamed on ungovernability in our Opinion Brief Podcast ⬇️ youtu.be/eHUWohsUuIg?...

Another eg of how Burnham has a chance to get Labour a rehearing. He performs far better with the flanks of Labour’s coalition - among progressive activists where Labour have lost their lead to the Greens his favourability is +24 compared to Starmer -40.

Latest episode of @opinionbriefpod out now! Why calling the public ungovernable is a cop out. How does Burnham stack up against other party leaders. 10 years on from Brexit with @anandMenon1, would we go back? Listen below: tr.ee/KasOq-wGy2

How does voting intention change, when party leaders are named with Burnham as hypothetical Labour leader. Labour go from 7pts behind Reform, to 1pts ahead gaining 6pts Reform, Greens, Lib Dems also lose votes The Tories gain one point. Combined right/left share barely changes.

Reform's lead narrows slightly this week - they now lead the Tories by 6. ➡️ REF UK 28% (-1)
🌳CON 22% (+1)
🌹 LAB 21% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1)
🌍 GREEN 10% (+1)
❓ OTH 3% (nc)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1) N = 2,993 | Fieldwork 19-22 June | Changes w/ 15 June

🧵For the 10th anniversary of Brexit we've taken an in-depth look at attitudes to the referendum, relations with the EU, rejoining, the impact of Brexit, but also the red lines on any closer relationship. Firstly at a top level Brits say they would be 48%-28% for rejoin

At 11 we're hosting a Brexit 10 years on webinar with loads of new public opinion data on attitudes to Brexit, the EU, what trade offs people would and wouldn't be willing to make to rejoin. Sign up below moreincommon.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Interesting to see perceptions of whether the party leaders help or hurt their parties has changed over past year. Burnham seen as a clear asset for Labour, Starmer a big drag, Badenoch has moved from hinder to help, while Farage’s help score has dipped to tie Badenoch.

This is why I think Burnham has a good chance of getting Labour a chance at a rehearing, this weeks word cloud is way more positive than most politicians & than Starmer’s even at his peak. Obv it will shift but defs offers a narrow window to course correct with public

Here's @luketryl.bsky.social for the FT on the fight for the right - not just Reform riding high but now Restore and the Tory win in Aberdeen South to contend with - www.ft.com/content/1cf6... - Nigel Farage faces a new set of problems

Idea of long handover to prepare understandable but from a public opinion pov there two big negatives to waiting till September. 1) I remember from groups summer of 2022 the sense of lame duck govt during leadership contest made people more worried about winter & cost of living

Third underwhelming by election result in Makerfield for Reform; surprise Tory landslide in Aberdeen South, Restore holding a deposit, wards in Essex flipping back. Written for @financialtimes.com on why far from resolving battle for the right it looks as chaotic than ever www.ft.com/content/1cf6...

Special by-election wrap up episode of @opinionbriefpod out now! What happened in the three contests, why did it happen, what does it say about the future of the left and right and what happens next? Link below! linktr.ee/OpinionBrief...

Worth saying that while Restore Britain's 6.8% was below some excitable briefings, Reform UK didn't get as high as that in a by-elections in the last parliament until just months before the 2024 election (ironically Rupert Lowe and Ben Habib in Kingswood and Wellingborough).

Flavours of cope this morning on here and on X. 1. People will hate Burnham when he’s PM 2. Makerfield is a one off 3. Just a split on the right 4. Left will split next time 5. Burnham must have an election 6. AB is too ambitious 7. It‘s the evil uniparty 8. Kemi is terrible, Tories can‘t win seats

Why do I think Reform underperformed? Obvs Burnham was key factor, but within Reform’s control 1) Candidate was net negative (for third by-election in a row) 2) Nowak response from Farage sat uneasily even with many who agree with him on policing in Reform’s more wary voters

This from @luketryl.bsky.social via the Guardian is v good www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

Unarguably Reform’s worst night since General Election. 1) Barely any increase in their vote share in Makerfield. 20pt Labour win in a seat that was one of their best second places in 2024. 2) Tories show proof of life and even momentum in battle for the right with Aberdeen South win

Worth remembering as much as people might say a Burnham victory was a given, this was the result in Makerfield in the local elections barely more than a month ago. Even running it close would have been defying electoral gravity, if it’s a clear Burnham victory that’s something quite extraordinary.

Tonight’s by elections turnout in context of other contests since 2000.

Really significant result in Aberdeen South, not just that the Conservatives took the seat from the SNP, but that it wasn’t even close - majority was over 6000 and the Tories taking 50% of the vote even while Reform took 9%.

Makerfield is the second highest turnout in a by election since 2000, and first time there’s been an increase in turnout from a general election in a by election since 1987.

If the Tories win Aberdeen South and Labour Makerfield it’s bad night for the death of two party politics narrative.

Decent clutch of local council by elections gains for the Tories, two gains from Reform and a hold in Hillingdon. *If* the Tories take Aberdeen and Reform lose Makerfield, it will significantly muddy the battle for the right.

🧵Polls have closed in Makerfield. Over the past month we've conducted 9 focus groups in the seat, more than we've ever done for a contest, some reflections. The fundamental questions defining this race haven't changed 1. Will Makerfield be better off with Burnham as MP and PM

Latest episode of the @opinionbriefpod out now! - Where are Brits on defence spending - Preview of today’s three by elections - Our first “under the hood” session, Anouschka explains how we go about doing a poll’ Links below! tr.ee/KasOq-wGy2