Mentioned this in my @thetimes.com piece today - but was really struck by fact current Conservative voters actually view Trump *less* favourably than current Labour voters and are a world away from Reform voters. Think both tone/anti-institutionalism doesn't appeal to traditional conservatives.

Have written in today's @thetimes.com in a piece with @davidcollinsnews.bsky.social about what the politics of the East Midlands, England's bellwether region, tells us about the electoral logic of Jenrick's defection & the battle for the soul of the British right. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Public frustration with the state of the UK is driven by a perception of a breakdown between what people are putting in to the system, and what they're getting out of it – according to @luketryl.bsky.social. He explains the corrosive impact of widespread zero-sum thinking 👇

Genuinely baffling. Focus is onTory-Reform fighting, giving Labour breathing space and opportunity to look like grown ups in the room - so some Labour cabinet members decide better strategy is to brief and mimic infighting - to what? Wrest the chaos narrative back? 🤦‍♂️ www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Just going back through some of the focus groups we ran during the Conservative leadership contest - Some of the participants surprisingly prescient about Jenrick and where it was all going to end up.

Finally a pollster asks an important question

Our polling finds once again the purveyors of division have it wrong. We're told that when it comes to Marmite you either love it or you hate, it but our polling finds just 43% of Britons fall into those camps. With as many expressing ambivalence, or a softer preference either way

What I don’t get about this series of the Traitors and group of faithfuls is how they treat each new roundtable as a completely new event with no relation to what they might have learnt from the one roundtable to the next!

With President Trump sauing Ukraine not Russia is holding up a peace deal our polling last year found that Brits overwhelmingly think that it is Putin making Peace harder (67%) whereas only 19% say the same of Zelenskyy.

Obviously no world in which more Tory infighting helps them, and a defection from someone as prominent as Robert Jenrick is damaging and a boost to Reform. But in terms of mitigation of a bad hand and demonstrating leadership credentials to the public Badenoch's direct approach is probably right one

Small changes in this week’s voting intention see the Reform lead back to double digits (10pts) for first time since mid November. ➡️ REF UK 31% (-) 🌳 CON 21% (-2) 🌹 LAB 19% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (+2) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,036 | 10 - 13/01| Change w 7/01

Debate about London is obscured by the false binaries both sides put on it. Best on it is @jburnmurdoch.ft.com who shows it is both case violent crime down (an undisputed good) & crimes of disorder (shop lifting, snatching) up which affects/is visible to more but far less devastating consequences

Worth thinking about with this bounce is whether assumptions about the irrelevance of PMQs/parliamentary set pieces on public opinion are wrong - and the mode of transmission - good PMQs -> commentariat --> public still matters (and may be strengthened by social media clips)

No doubt Zahawi a big name for Reform & helps with momentum. But his resignation was on what the public see as a clear ‘one rule for them’ type scandal they hate - so a risk this, more than previous switches, could blunt Reform’s appeal as ‘different to usual political class’.

This is smart from Polanski in broadening the greens appeal. Often language around ‘green choices’ is received as choices for those who can afford to do so and just another financial/time burden at a time of already high burdens for everyone else looks tin eared. www.thetimes.com/article/a7ac...

Our new polling shows how cost of living is the key issue shaping public opinion and politics. As the Govt makes cost of living a top priority, the highest number of Brits, since we started tracking say that they don’t think the cost of living crisis will ever end.

New in @theguardian.com - our polling finds falls in levels of net migration haven’t yet cut through to the public. In fact Brits are overwhelmingly more likely to think that levels of net migration rose between Summer 2024 and 2025 than fell. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

👑🇬🇧 Who do we count as our national treasures? That’s the question we asked for this week’s Rest is Entertainment - as you may expect David Attenborough was the run away winner from our list. Only 7 people were considered national treasures by over half the country & none are under 75!

Great @economist.com piece by @matthewholehouse.bsky.social on state capacity. Am convinced next election winner will be who convinces people Government can actually just *do things* & politicians aren’t powerless to make good on promises. My reframe of Reagan maxim www.economist.com/britain/2026...

There's a key element about the cost of living crisis that a lot of people are missing, according to @luketryl.bsky.social from @moreincommonuk.bsky.social. He explains the pernicious impact when everyone feels like they're going backwards 👇

Lots of great poll question ideas come from people getting in touch with ideas. To encourage more we're going to ask our (free) newsletter subscribers to suggest a question. We'll pick the best & put results in the next weeks newsletter. Sign up below! www.moreincommon.org.uk/newsletter/

With Starmer & Badenoch clashing over scrutiny of plans to send British troops to Ukraine, our December polling found 55% of Brits support sending UK troops as peacekeepers, 28% oppose. Majorities of 2024 Tory, Labour & Lib Dem voters are in support, 2024 Reform voters split

Our first 2026 voting intention sees Reform lead by 8. The Tories hit their highest since last April on 23%. 4 points above Labour on 19% ➡️ REF UK 31% (+3) 🌳 CON 23% (+1) 🌹 LAB 19% (-2) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 10% (+1) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) (Dates 2-5/1 change w 22/12, N 2021)

Some positivity! Asked how they feel about going into 2026 the most common word offered by the public was optimistic, along with hopeful - the most popular negative words were worried and pessimistic - with only a handful of ‘indifferents’

🧵A deep dive into how united or divided the public think the UK is entering 2026. The political & social tumult of the past year seems to have shifted perceptions of cohesion. 64% now say the UK feels divided up 10pts from 2022. Those who say somewhat/v.united is down 5pts.

I find all our focus groups fascinating but this one was particularly so - @bethanymrd.bsky.social asked us to run a focus group of 12-13 year olds, who’ll have the vote at the next election for @politico.eu. It was fair to say the clip of PMQs we shows them didn’t impress. (Link next)

As I said to Playbook, while everyone else was doing healthy Boxing Day walks, I was bingeing the (almost) final few episodes of Stranger Things and *I loved them*. www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...

I see the annual cat in headlights Christmas Eve toy store visit of Guncles is in full swing.

In case you're thinking (or know people) thinking about a new role in the New Year we're hiring atm for - Training/Development Associate to help people make use of our insights -Comms assistant to help share our insights across platforms Details & apply here: www.moreincommon.org.uk/about-us/jobs/

🎄Got a spare seat at the Xmas Dinner table? Well if you're looking for a politician to invite (why wouldn't you be) Then Brits say: Boris would be the most fun Fancy an argument go for Farage Kemi makes the best xmas dinner (no sandwiches) Keir would bring the most stingy gift

Final voting intention of 2025. Reform lead the Tories by 6 (28-22). Lowest Reform lead since September. Lab just behind in 3rd on 21% ➡️ REF UK 28% (-1) 🌳 CON 22% (+2) 🌹 LAB 21% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1) 🌍 GREEN 9% (-2) 🟡 SNP 3% (nc) N = 2,026 | 12 - 19/23 | Change w 15/12

Who said polling wasn’t an answer to everything? Still stuck for what to buy for a last minute Christmas gift? We've analysed polling of 9,000 ppl to create a tool that shows the gifts people would most like based on age, gender and voting history www.moreincommon.org.uk/latest-insig...

Looking forward to this!

A focus group quote that stuck with me from a disappointed Lab voter was along lines: "Why are they (Labour) picking on Pensioners (WFA), farmers (IHT), small businesses (NICS), these groups who can't fight back?" Telling 2 of those 3 have been significantly watered down now

Have written for @financialtimes.com on the dangers of been see to pitch house building against nature. Britain desperately needs more homes, but if you force a nature/building binary, it is the latter that will lose in the court of public opinion. www.ft.com/content/f456...

striking the Greens have now got a big lead in our Progressive Activist Segment - 12 ahead of Labour in a segment Corbyn got 6/10 votes in 2019. Reform is cleaning up with Dissenting Disruptors the most likely to want to burn it all down & more risk averse Rooted Patriots fed up with status quo.

Fascinating piece by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com which uses some of our data and shows the link between zero sum thinking & the rise of anti-system parties on left & right. Slowing intergenerational progress & perceptions/reality of scarcity is driving people from the mainstream www.ft.com/content/30a4...

Presented with NHS warnings of a worst case scenario with this years flu - a majority back compulsory working from home and a plurality back mandatory masking. More oppose banning large gatherings or a circuit breaker lockdown, but surprisingly a third & a quarter would back them

🎄And as an Xmas special: What is voting intention by school nativity role we played? Labour’s best result is with those who played Wise Men, Tory’s Joseph, Greens narrators & maybe mirroring their rise from underdogs to today Reform’s best score is among those who played sheep/donkeys

Minor voting intention changes this week though at 8 this is lowest Reform lead since October. Labour & Tories continue to swap for 2nd ➡️ REF UK 29% (-1) 🌹 LAB 21% (+1) 🌳 CON 20% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-2) 🌍 GREEN 11% (+1) 🟡 SNP 3% (-) N 2,037 | 12-16/12 | Change 8/12

🆕 🧵 Polling of the public 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇵🇱 shows they find key elements of the proposed Witkoff Ukraine peace deal such as recognising the Donbas as Russian, or calling Ukraine’s army on are unacceptable, with particularly strong opposition in Poland and the UK.

🆕 🧵 Polling of the public 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇵🇱 shows they find key elements of the proposed Witkoff Ukraine peace deal such as recognising the Donbas as Russian, or calling Ukraine’s army on are unacceptable, with particularly strong opposition in Poland and the UK.

Latest voting intention - Reform lead remains at 9 points, Tories up 2 to tie with Labour at 21%. ➡️ REF UK 30% (nc) 🌹 LAB 21% (nc) 🌳 CON 21% (+2) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (+1) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) ❓OTH 1% (-2) N = 2,114 | 28/11 - 01/12 | Change w 24/11

If the Government repeals the 2 child cap, not only is it an argument that they can win, but it's one that aligns with why people vote Labour. Headline support/oppose polling can obscure the ability to win an argument on this. My piece for @trusselluk.bsky.social www.trussell.org.uk/news-and-res...

🧵🇺🇦Our new polling finds Brits consider concessions expected of Ukraine in the 28 point peace plan unacceptable. Majorities of Brits thinking cutting Ukraine’s army, allowing Russia to annex the Donbas, and ruling out NATO membership are unacceptable.

A couple of questions this research prompts for me: How much do (and should?) the arts reflect /respond to / represent these ‘disillusioned men’? What would a positive version of that engagement look like? (Answering those is tackling cultural policy on hard mode, I suspect).

🧵 For International Men’s Day, @moreincommonuk.bsky.social has new research into a cohort of disillusioned men who have lost faith in the social contract & the idea that hard work will support a good life, don’t think politics respect them & who are turning away from mainstream politics

Starmer's promise to stop the chaos & offer a politics that treads more lightly struck a chord with voters in the General Election. I wrote for @politicshome.bsky.social about why breaking it, especially through this week's infighting is electoral kryptonite www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

This is a really important point, it also makes it impossible to engage in good faith discussions with people about the merits if they are convinced 'the media just made it up' - there maybe many problems with media, but the code on this stuff is fairly solid.

Yes the idea you can get away with just tossing aside an explicit pledge without a major material change of circs that all voters can see, was always a bubble opinion. However bad it looks now, that would have been irrecoverable