New 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿Senedd voting intention. Reform UK down and now neck-and-neck with Plaid, while the Greens jump up to tie the Conservatives. ➡️ REF UK 26% (–5) 🌼 PLAID 26% (+2) 🌹 LAB 20% (nc) 🌳 CON 10% (–3) 🔶 LIB DEM 7% (+1) 🌍 GREEN 10% (+5) N=851, 15/2-3/3 Change with 10/2

📕It's world book day! So how does favourite children's book vary by voting intention. Despite having been dragged into the culture wars, Paddington is top choice of Tory and Reform voters, for Labour voters it's the Snowman while Winne-the-Pooh comes out on top with Green voters

In his speech today Andy Burnham cited our poll finding that record numbers now think the cost of living crisis will never end. Totally right imo it is 'code red' - it's not just that life is too hard for too many at the moment - but people have also lost hope it will get better

Big movements in our voting intention this week Greens hit at our highest vote share, Labour their joint-lowest Reform lead Tories by 10 ➡️ REF UK 29% (+1) 🌳 CON 19% (-1) 🌹 LAB 18% (-4) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 14% (+3) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1) N = 2,010 | 27/2 - 2/3| Change w 23/02

Striking that Reform have now overtaken Labour as the party people would most like to vote against - very much matches what we heard in Gorton with many voters primary concern less merits of Lab/Green but who could best stop Reform.

📈🧵The Chancellor will likely use her spring statement shortly today to trumpet economic indicators pointing in right direction. But the public are far from feeling it. The rise in unemployment has had far greater cut through and negative reaction than falls in borrowing or inflation.

Now we are seeing a mirror in Labour-Green of what happened with the Tories-Reform, what lessons might Labour take from the Tories lack of success (at least to date) at reversing the bleeding to Reform? Two areas of interest 1. Ideological positioning 2. Nature of engagement/approach to Greens

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🧵Last week we spoke at the Plaid conference to share our latest research. This really stood out for me: Plaid's base has shifted left as it has grown. Among their 2021 voters the median voter put themselves at 5 on a right-left scale, now they're at a 4

In Reform and the Greens interest to talk up nationwide elections being a Reform-Green contest which we are a long way away from. But I reckon you could get reasonable odds on the second round of the London Mayor contest being Green-Reform. London locals will be an interesting pointer.

One reason Hannah Spencer did well is she passed the “gets it test” few politicians do on two levels. First: personally we heard praise she seemed normal in touch & respected voters. Second message; the below from her speech is the perfect distillation of what we hear in groups.

Just on the stop Reform/Tactical voting issue, worth remembering there are actually three factors at play. Given size (~68%) of combined left vote, tactical voting just between parties on the ballot wasn't actually necessary but maybe magnified green victory.

Just to illustrate the scale of this a bit more. The shift in votes in the Gorton by-election wasn't so much left right - but from the traditional big two parties to the two insurgent parties.

🧵 Quick thoughts on the result. First it really is a seismic result for the Greens, they've never got more than 10.2% in a by-election, today they won with 4x that. Two big takeaways: Electoral fragmentation has eaten two party politics and the Polanski poll bounce is very real

If the Greens pull out win, obvs significant for them. But also sets off alarms on Labour's base: if they're bleeding red wall voters to Reform/never won them back in 2024, but also losing a chunk of students/grads & muslim voters the Greens on the left, their floor could be low

NEW PODCAST: @jenniferthf.bsky.social​ speaks to leading pollster @luketryl.bsky.social​ about public frustration and what it could mean for the future of our institutions, like the NHS. Listen now 🎧 https://bit.ly/46VtBmw

Why is Gorton and Denton so unpredictable? Some quotes from our focus groups there. All the national attention has if anything just amplified the confusion. Mostly Green-Labour tactical paralysis but we’ve found Green-Reform waverers who just want something new and Lab-Reform too

Cost of living hasn't stopped been top issue since pandemic, comes up without fail across focus groups with energy and food prices biggest drivers. If Govt can own this fall in prices it will be an opportunity to do claim a tangible 'we've made your life better' win.

🧵Reform’s promise to scrap the employees’ rights act as part of the Great Repeal Bill could risk alienating a group of their potential voters. Here's why it's a risk Firstly, as polling we've done for @jrf-uk.bsky.social shows - Brits across voter groups support key elements of the act

Great piece from @rmcunliffe.bsky.social who sat in on focus group of Muslim voters in Gorton/Denton. Lots of groups bleak right now, but even more so as they felt racism had basically been legitimised recently & were angry govt esp PM, weren’t standing up to it www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

With caveat constituency polling is hard there are only 250 odd expressing a preference, but if this is close to where we are next week then result would really come down to ground game on the day.

Updated Government success/failure chart with Mandelson scandal - Mandelson scandal seen by far as most negative reflection on govt of anything tested so far (we had to extend the axis) but slightly lower cut through than winter fuel on negative & minimum wage rise on positive.

🧵Lots of talk about Labour needing to pivot ‘soft left’. I think yesterday’s Jenrick speech may make that proposition more electorally compelling. Prior to speech Reform were split on economics, voters they’ve won from Labour want more redistribution, voters won from Tories less

As inflation falls to 3% the number selecting the cost of living as a top issue facing the country has risen to 70%. That's the highest since the election 💷 Cost of Living 70% 🏥NHS 35% 🛃 Levels of immigration 32% 🛥️ Channel crossings 29% 🚔Crime 19% 🏘️Affordable housing 18% 👷Jobs and unemployment 17%

Totally agree with this. From conversations with people in areas where they had done the 'making nice' work people noticed it, it made them feel better about their area and was a sign that govt (local, regional, or national) actually cared and could help them. Obvs not only piece, but a big one

Latest voting intention. Reform at 28%, narrowing their lead to 6. Greens in 4th as Liberal Democrats fall to 11%, lowest since 2024. ➡️ REF UK 28% (-2) 🌹 LAB 22% (-1) 🌳 CON 21% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 12% (+2) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-1) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1) N = 2,108 | 13/2 - 17/2| Change w 10/02

Pancake Day reveals a new, highly divisive intergenerational split - while older generations are loyal to traditional lemon and sugar pancake topping, younger adults are more likely to say they prefer Nutella or chocolate spread on their pancakes.

One challenge compounding Government woes is a reasonably clear pattern between how salient an issue is on our tracker for the public and how well the Government is seen to be performing on it - particularly in the case of cost of living.

Number of stories about different parties being accused of breaching electoral law in Gorton a portend of potential for a very ugly general election campaign. Both from the perspective of campaigners playing fast and loose and the import of more a litigious US style politics.

🧵In today’s Times @joshglancy.bsky.social has a brilliant write up of our focus groups he sat in on. Definitely read it in full! But I want to focus on two voters: Kylie & Eve I think have outsized importance in explaining today’s politics www.thetimes.com/article/b75e...

There’s that stage in the lifetime of every meme/joke/snowclone where it is inevitably ruined by politicians using it and must be retired. ‘Roses are Red…’ survived longer than most but cursory glance at X yesterday shows unfortunately its time has come.

With Starmer calling for deeper links with the EU a plurality of Brits agree. 37% think it is best for national security to align with the EU, 18% with Commonwealth/CANZUK countries and 14% with the United States.

More in Common leans pretty firmly towards Labour, YouGov quite strongly towards Plaid. Either could be right!

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿New Senedd voting intention. Reform UK holds a 7-point lead over Plaid, while Labour is in third. ➡️ REF UK 31% (+29) 🌼 PLAID 24% (+4) 🌹 LAB 20% (–20) 🌳 CON 13% (–13) 🔶 LIB DEM 6% (+1) 🌍 GREEN 5% (+3) 30/1 - 10/2 N=806 (16+) changes w 2021 constituency vote

We’re not in Kansas anymore latest: Green + Reform 57% Labour + Conservative 38.6% In 2024 (18 months ago!) Lab + Con was 81.6%

You might not always like what polls say but having information like this is a tool for holding elected officials to account and amplifying the public. Those who spend their time piling on pollsters should reflect what the alternative looks like. thehill.com/homenews/med...

One of the things that ought to change in any Number 10 shake up is this sort of thing. Whatever you think of whether he’s the right person for the job he’s dedicated his life to public service and no one (in any job!) deserves to be treated like this.

One of the things that ought to change in any Number 10 shake up is this sort of thing. Whatever you think of whether he’s the right person for the job he’s dedicated his life to public service and no one (in any job!) deserves to be treated like this.

What news stories have people heard the most about this week? One overwhelming story.

Voting intention: Reform lead Labour by 7. At just 44% this is actually highest combined vote for 2 traditional main parties since October ➡️ REF UK 30% (nc) 🌹 LAB 23% (+2) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-2) 🌍 GREEN 10% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) N = 2,035 | 6/2 - 10/2| Change 2/02

This piece made me think electoral fragmentation changes expectation management calculations. In past sensible to downplay expectations and hope to exceed them. But in multi party politics downplay & eg greens start to look like challengers to Reform potentially leading to a worse result.

Forced choice head 2 head on preferred prime minister. 🌹Starmer v.narrowly edges Farage and Polanski but loses to Davey & Badenoch 🌳Badenoch wins all four head to heads 🔶Davey beats Starmer & v.narrowly Farage, but loses to Badenoch

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Independence voting intention from our latest poll of Scottish voters. 41% would vote in favour of independence 37% would vote against 11% would not vote & 10% are undecided.

Whether it's the job itself is structurally impossible, or just reflective of the extreme instability/volatility of British politics the average length of service of Downing Street Chief of Staff since Ed Llewellyn is both pretty bleak and sobering.

NEW 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Holyrood voting intention. Despite a significant drop of support since 2021 the SNP still lead by 16. Reform in second. Constituency vote: 🟡 SNP 35% (-13) ➡️ REF UK 19% (NEW) 🌹 LAB 18% (-4) 🌳 CON 11% (-11) 🔶 LIB DEM 10% (+3) 🌍 GREEN 5% (+4) Change vs 2021 SPE

Seriously enough with this interminable London drizzle now. ☔️

People tend to say politicians should resign - esp if they didn’t vote for them in the first place. So what matters (as with Boris and Partygate) are own party voters. The fact Labour 2024 voters are only 40-37 stay is worse news from a public opinion pov than the headline figure.

People on both sides can be dismissive of it compared to economic/identity arguments - but passport waits are brought up reasonably often in focus groups as downside of Brexit - it's far more tangible/attributable than economic debates an every day friction people hate www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

What cuts through & what reflects well/badly on the government? We've asked that since the election. There's plenty on both sides of the positive/negative divide - but 3 negatives - winter fuel, prisoner release & farmers IHT - have particularly high cut through & negativity

Tiny changes mean Reform lead Labour by 9 and the Tories by 10 in this weeks voting intention, with Lib Dem’s and Greens 4th/5th ➡️ REF UK 30% (+1) 🌹 LAB 21% (-1) 🌳 CON 20% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+1) 🌍 GREEN 10% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (nc) N = 2,005 | 31/1 - 2/2| Change w 28/01

A look at how party's current voter bases by 2024 vote Labour's current VI is almost entirely those who backed them in 2024 Tories a bit more varied: picking up some lab/liberal votes but still 74% Tory 2024 Lib Dems more varied still - 14% of their current VI are Lab 2024 voters