If the Government repeals the 2 child cap, not only is it an argument that they can win, but it's one that aligns with why people vote Labour. Headline support/oppose polling can obscure the ability to win an argument on this. My piece for @trusselluk.bsky.social www.trussell.org.uk/news-and-res...

🧵🇺🇦Our new polling finds Brits consider concessions expected of Ukraine in the 28 point peace plan unacceptable. Majorities of Brits thinking cutting Ukraine’s army, allowing Russia to annex the Donbas, and ruling out NATO membership are unacceptable.

A couple of questions this research prompts for me: How much do (and should?) the arts reflect /respond to / represent these ‘disillusioned men’? What would a positive version of that engagement look like? (Answering those is tackling cultural policy on hard mode, I suspect).

🧵 For International Men’s Day, @moreincommonuk.bsky.social has new research into a cohort of disillusioned men who have lost faith in the social contract & the idea that hard work will support a good life, don’t think politics respect them & who are turning away from mainstream politics

Starmer's promise to stop the chaos & offer a politics that treads more lightly struck a chord with voters in the General Election. I wrote for @politicshome.bsky.social about why breaking it, especially through this week's infighting is electoral kryptonite www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

This is a really important point, it also makes it impossible to engage in good faith discussions with people about the merits if they are convinced 'the media just made it up' - there maybe many problems with media, but the code on this stuff is fairly solid.

Yes the idea you can get away with just tossing aside an explicit pledge without a major material change of circs that all voters can see, was always a bubble opinion. However bad it looks now, that would have been irrecoverable

I understand the pushback on this, but the tax promises were hammered home by Labour and undermined by the Tories repeatedly, so they were covered as a central plank of the campaign, and the folk memory of the campaign has that promise at its centre. Breaking them would be breaking a key promise.

Two things seem to be true this morning - 1/ That the politics of breaking the manifesto pledge was too difficult 2/ Reeves has received much more optimistic forecasts, likely to he wage growth and inflation related The combination means they can reverse their plans

Too much analysis was still treating breaking the tax pledge as “just another unpopular decision” rather than recognising consequence of breaking a promise which defined an election for the public. If is correct the govt won’t now break it they may have avoided a deeply scarring loss of public trust

one of the first things I learned moving to England was that there is a way to have an accent over text and the power of the passive aggressive single kiss x

🤔 People who post about politics online are much more likely to describe themselves as “more kind than average”. Might be that we need a national self-awareness day as well as global kindness day.

😊It's world kindness day (apparently). 49% of Brits say they are more kind than the average Briton, 44% about as kind and 6% more unkind. Green voters are the most likely to say they're more kind than average. Reform and Liberal Democrat voters the least.

Our new research for the RSPB suggests that pro-building advocates will be doing their (important) cause a disservice if they create a forced binary between nature and home building and that support for building new homes will suffer as a result.

Dead cat strategy getting a bit much tbh

And there are so many of these small things that govt could have fixed *to show it knows about all the little broken pieces *to show that it cares *because it can fix and fix now *as proof of concept that they can and will fix things *because it's the efficient thing to do

This is the sort of small but meaningful thing that helps to tackle a major frustration for one group of people inability to do something as basic as book a driving test furthers their feeling Britain is broken. Sort of thing govt should be leading with not infighting.

Was any of last nights briefing from Number 10 done with the public in mind? Hard to think of a more perfect example of why so many people are now thinking, whatever the risks we may as well roll the dice on Reform/the Greens/someone else because it’s perma chaos as it is.

Quick thread on the BBC and the political and societal significance of recent developments: One of the main reasons the UK has historically been so much less polarised than the US, is that Britain has a shared source of information, consumed and trusted by most people regardless of their politics.

🧵💚Does the Green Party's wider focus on economic/social justice issues mean that climate is being crowded out? Not for their voters - in fact those who now say they would vote green are more likely to back a range of 'climate action' measures than those who voted Green in 2024.

📕 With the Booker Prize winner set to be announced tonight, how does voting intention vary by favourite book genre. Reform’s highest score is with fans of horror, while Labour enjoys a landslide lead among fans of self-help books. *Read* into that what you will.

With COP kicking off - join our webinar at 1.30 we’ll be looking at Brits latest attitudes to climate and environment both at home & abroad with new data on how important climate is to the Greens new voters given their leader’s broader focus on the economy moreincommon.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

🧵 While the BBC remains fairly well trusted overall and one of the most trusted media sources in the country, the broadcaster has an image problem with Reform voters who are much less likely than average to say they trust the broadcaster and are split between trust/distrust.

We are recruiting a few different new roles @Moreincommon_ UK, if you're interested in any of them and think you'd enjoy our work do take a look. www.moreincommon.org.uk/about-us/jobs/

Once again the Traitors is unparalleled amazing TV: was sceptical celebrities would work. It did

Spoilers Alert Loved Celebrity Traitors. Just love Alan, what a traitor. Joe Marler was robbed so it was justice Nick didn’t deserve to win after betraying their bond and David was serially wrong!

X2

Omg

How your email finds me

Our new report with @uclpolicylab.bsky.social, Shared Institutions, is a deep dive of public opinion on universities. At a top level Britons feel positively about our universities impact on the UK & their local area. But emerging divides show the sector can’t take public opinion for granted

🤴 Given the future of the monarchy is back on the agenda. What do the public think? 47% oppose abolition 29% back it. Tory and Reform voters are most opposed. Green voters most likely to be in favour of abolition.

🆕 Reform back to a 33% high in our Voting Intention. The combined Green/Reform vote hits 44% - 5 points higher than the Tory/Labour vote ➡️ REF UK 33% (+2) 🌹 LAB 21% (-1) 🌳 CON 18% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 12% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 11% (+1) 🟡 SNP 2% (-) N 2,030 | 24 -27/10 | Change w 20/10

This week's More in Common UK newsletter looks at the implications of Caerphilly, who is the party of the status quo, attitudes to multiculturalism and more! Take a look and sign up to get future editions below. 26724274.hs-sites-eu1.com/what-happene...

One implication. More pressure for Labour to have an offer for progressives starting with the budget. Two main reasons A) As we already knew Progressive defections from Labour in of themselves are clearly real and squeezing Labour, to Plaid in Wales and the Greens more broadly.

Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.

Ok banishing Stephen Fry is unforgivable. Officially worst group ever.

Does it actually matter that the celebrity faithfuls are so bad (aside from being painful to watch them fumble), given you can recruit new traitors is there any advantage to getting them out early.

Some people complain there’s too much polling in this life, but what is voting intention in the after life? Reform leads among both those who think they’d go to heaven & those who think they’d go to hell. Though their lead grows from 6 to 20 among (self selected) denizens of hell

Under appreciated about rise of the Greens is the biggest impact is likely (at least for now) less seats they win and more how policy & political debate has to shift in response. Farage’s parties had huge impact on centre of gravity long before becoming real contenders for power

Another sign of shifting politics? Labour lead Reform by 11 among those who say they are very comfortable financially. But trail Reform by 16 among those who say they often struggle to make ends meet - in fact Greens are close to overtaking Lab for 2nd with those who say they are struggling most.

Only small changes in this week’s voting intention. Reform lead by 9, while the Greens enter double digits. ➡️ REF UK 31% (+1) 🌹 LAB 22% (nc) 🌳 CON 19% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (-2) 🌍 GREEN 10% (+1) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) ❓OTH 2% (nc) N = 2,084 | 17 - 20/10 | Change w 13/10

With Boris Johnson saying the govt probably did go too far with lockdown measures for young people, a clear majority of Brits now say that school closures during the pandemic did more harm than good. Though younger Brits are more likely to say they did good than harm.

Every party conference season we ask people to describe the main party leaders in a word. Here are Starmer, Badenoch, Davey and Farage brought together. Not sure which one you’d rather!

Really do think Alan Carr might be my favourite traitor ever.

Thought this was quite an interesting question. We asked which political party do people think is most "American" in it's style and Reform comes out on top by a country mile. Most likely to do with Trump, but also perhaps their more attention grabbing set pieces?

Increasingly convinced umbrellas are up there for most useless invention - rain is *often* accompanied by wind and yet the slightest breeze and they become not just unusable but actively hostile. (Yes i did just get soaked)

🆕 The US debate about taking paracetamol in pregnancy does not appear to be shaping opinions here in the UK. Just 13% of Britons say they think it is either generally or completely unsafe to take paracetamol during pregnancy.

🧵Thoughts on Polanski speech: his pledge to "end rip off Britain" is closest to chiming with public mood on the cost of living of leaders speeches yet. The sense essentials, let alone treats are unaffordable & govt is unable/unwilling to tackle it epitomises broken Britain mood

The attack on the Manchester synagogue on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar is both horrific & sickening. Thoughts with all those affected and also others who'll be feeling scared or less safe in their communities. Something we all have to play a part in addressing.

In @theguardian.com - drop in support for digital ID since summer & govt announcement. From 54-18 support to 31-45 opposed, a real shift: suggests govt didnt get comms on use right, opponents did; but also risk govt unpopularity means they have reverse Midas right now theguardian.com/politics/2025/…