Really do think Alan Carr might be my favourite traitor ever.

Thought this was quite an interesting question. We asked which political party do people think is most "American" in it's style and Reform comes out on top by a country mile. Most likely to do with Trump, but also perhaps their more attention grabbing set pieces?

Increasingly convinced umbrellas are up there for most useless invention - rain is *often* accompanied by wind and yet the slightest breeze and they become not just unusable but actively hostile. (Yes i did just get soaked)

🆕 The US debate about taking paracetamol in pregnancy does not appear to be shaping opinions here in the UK. Just 13% of Britons say they think it is either generally or completely unsafe to take paracetamol during pregnancy.

🧵Thoughts on Polanski speech: his pledge to "end rip off Britain" is closest to chiming with public mood on the cost of living of leaders speeches yet. The sense essentials, let alone treats are unaffordable & govt is unable/unwilling to tackle it epitomises broken Britain mood

The attack on the Manchester synagogue on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar is both horrific & sickening. Thoughts with all those affected and also others who'll be feeling scared or less safe in their communities. Something we all have to play a part in addressing.

In @theguardian.com - drop in support for digital ID since summer & govt announcement. From 54-18 support to 31-45 opposed, a real shift: suggests govt didnt get comms on use right, opponents did; but also risk govt unpopularity means they have reverse Midas right now theguardian.com/politics/2025/…

🧵We've got a packed agenda at Labour Conference & hope to see you at our events if you're there! Monday 16:30 we'll be hosting our flagship event on Labour's coalition releasing new polling and getting reactions on where to go next from a range of perspectives across the party

With today's announcement on Pride in Place, worth noting that policies such as this (it's a rebranding & expansion of Plan for Neighbourhoods) are popular but haven't cut through. Same goes for community right to buy, and community energy. w/ @luketryl.bsky.social @moreincommonuk.bsky.social

🧵Something odd in the strategic choices Reform has made in past few weeks after by any measure a very successful summer. Take this comment, it's just so out of line with British public opinion. Politically damaging for 2 key reasons 1. Brits trust science 2. They don't like Trump

Some shifts in this week's voting intention as Reform’s lead over Labour narrows again: now down to just 3pts. With both Labour and Tories up ➡️ REF UK 28% (-3) 🌹 LAB 25% (+3) 🌳 CON 20% (+2) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (-1) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (nc) N=2055 |19-22/9|Change w 15/9

With Davey set to use his speech to call on One Nation Conservatives to back them, what does our polling show people think Lib Dems purpose is relative to other parties? Among both Lib Dem considerers & supporters a plurality say to be moderate centre-right alternative to Tories

If you're in Bournemouth this is your 45 minute warning to get up the hill to the Marriott for a genuinely fascinating panel (I've read the speaker prompts, honestly going to be great). #LDConf

If you're at Lib Dem conference today, then this feels like the most interesting fringe of the whole weekend – and that's very much not because I'm chairing it.

We’ve got two fantastic fringe events at the @libdems.org.uk conference today. At 13.00 we’ll be releasing brand new polling looking at Liberal Democrat voters and options for where the party might go next, and discussing it with a stellar panel. Come along!

Latest version of our The Opinion Brief newsletter out now. In this week’s edition “It’s Energy Bills, stupid” - we take a deep dive into our latest research on how energy bills are driving the sense of “Broken Britain” take a read and sign up below. 26724274.hs-sites-eu1.com/its-energy-b...

We've got two great events at Liberal Democrat Party Conference that we would love to see you at. First on Sunday morning at 11:30 we'll be talking about how the Liberal Democrats approach climate and nature with @wwf.org.uk

Despite Government’s torrid week & fall in Starmer’s personal ratings, only minimal VI changes with Reform’s lead back to 9 ➡️ REF UK 31% (-1) 🌹 LAB 22% (+1) 🌳 CON 18% (nc) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+1) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (nc) ❓OTH 4% (+1) N = 2,037 | 12-15/9 | Change w 8/9

This from @georgeeaton.bsky.social is interesting, and am inclined to agree the Streeting/Allen view that allowing ministers to make distinct arguments that work for them is better suited to both nature of the 2025 comms and public’s desire for authenticity.

Given Farage's comments on marriage yesterday, worth saying that levels of support for same-sex marriage among Reform supporters are almost double those who oppose it, and not far off the national average.

🪫🧵With news the Government is drawing up plans to reduce household bills, our new research commissioned by @octopus.energy shows just how much energy bills are having an outsized impact in contributing to the mood of broken Britain and poor ratings for the Government

Just utterly horrific, a despicable act, a personal tragedy and an anathema to democracy.

🧵Agree great thread, This is really interesting research (and always good to do reruns to track trends). But like Steve i’d also suggest zooming out a little bit before assuming climate scepticism is the new normal. Some additional thoughts… (long thread sorry!)

🧵Agree great thread, This is really interesting research (and always good to do reruns to track trends). But like Steve i’d also suggest zooming out a little bit before assuming climate scepticism is the new normal. Some additional thoughts… (long thread sorry!)

ICYMI Our Friday Newsletter looked at our study of who Reform voters are, our latest Scotland polling, as well as our polling of young people - take a look and sign up at the link. 26724274.hs-sites-eu1.com/reform-uk-sc...

🥡 🐟 🍕 🍛Time for more polling you never knew you needed? Voting intention by favourite take away. Reform dominates with fans of Chinese & does well with Fish/Chips. Labour will hope to turn out pizza lovers (where they have an 18pt lead) & McDonalds to recover from its slump

As our report with @ukandeu.bsky.social showed Reform’s growth means the average Reform voter looks increasingly like the average Brit. But that’s also why there were 2 big unforced errors at their conference. 1) The Malhotra anti Covid vaccine speech. Just 16% think Covid vaccine unsafe.

That didn’t disappoint to be honest. Solid beeping, nice exclamation mark sign. A little after 15.00 though so an 8/10 from me.

🧵There's a lot of commentary labelling young people unpatriotic. But is that the case? Our polling in today's @thetimes.com of over 1000 16-17 year olds, find they are as proud to be British as adults, but sometimes express it differently. www.thetimes.com/article/e3d0...

Our poll of over 1000 16/17 year olds for the Sunday Times explored how the newest additions to the electorate may vote. It finds Labour in the lead on 30% over Reform, but including Corbyn's new party could reduce their vote share by 6 points and form a virtual three-way tie. Read it all below

Polling on Lucy Connolly tweet following her release finds that 35% think her sentence too harsh, but the majority of Brits: 52% say it was about right or too lenient. Most 2024 Reform voters say too harsh, Tory voters split harsh or lenient/about right. Most Labour/LD/Green the latter

Public opinion on the ECHR is fairly inchoate and figures would change in a campaign/depending on framing. But support for remaining in the convention has tended to be around 50%. Support for leaving around 30%. When we asked in July there was an uptick in support for reamining.

In my (ok, biased) view, QR continues to deliver the deepest discussion, without being ponderous or coldly intellectual. As an example, I was deeply touched by @luketryl.bsky.social opening up on how this has felt for a family of Ukrainian heritage and *I know* that no other programme would ask.

“I find it hard to think of an example where a party competing with another party has been so reluctant to take them on directly.” Brilliant analysis of the Tories by @luketryl.bsky.social on today’s show 🎧👇

Latest voting intention: Reform up at 9-point lead, Labour & Tories tied on 21 & 20. Meanwhile “Other” now at 5% ➡️ REF UK 30% (nc) 🌹 LAB 21% (-1) 🌳 CON 20% (-2) 🔶 LIB DEM 13% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 8% (+2) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1) ❓OTHER 5% (+1) N = 2,000 | Dates: 15 - 18/8 | Change w 11/8

My Fair Lady: Heinz edition

🙁Are millennials worse neighbours? We asked the public how actively they try to speak to their neighbours, and found over a third of millennials, the highest of any age cohort, say they either actively avoid speaking to their neighbours or only do so when they feel they have to

This week's edition of our @moreincommonuk.bsky.social Opinion Brief newsletter now out. Covers what Brits expectations are for the Alaska summit, how much we like hanging out with our neighbours, insights from Epping and more! Read it here & sign up below. 26724274.hs-sites-eu1.com/mic-opinion-...

🆕 Voting intention: Reform UK climbs to 31% - joint highest we’ve recorded. Meanwhile Conservatives fall to lowest we’ve had at 18% ➡️ REF UK 31% (+2) 🌹 LAB 22% (-1) 🌳 CON 18% (-2) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+1) 🌍 GREEN 7% (nc) 🟡 SNP 3% (nc) N = 2042 | Dates: 1 - 3/8 | Change w 28/7

🇺🇸🇪🇺🇨🇳 Second part of our polling on Brits attitudes to foreign policy in today's @thetimes.com. This week looking at Brits attitudes to 3 big power blocs, the EU, the US & China. On Brexit we find just 29% of Brits would vote Leave if the Referendum were held today. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Really on radicalisation from @samfr.bsky.social. One big factor Sam touches on that we notice a lot is the decline in “come off it” moments and rise in “you’re so right” moments. In real life has more the former, online more of the latter. bsky.app/profile/samf...

🧀Some (very Friday in August) polling. Does your favourite cheese affect how you vote? Reform have huge leads with fans of Stilton & Cheddar, but also people who don't eat cheese at all. Labour dominates among Feta fans. Tories best result is Brie & Greens with Camembert.

When did Britain start to go wrong? In @NewStatesman @georgeeaton looks at our polling of when the public think our turn for the worst was. Brexit tops the list, but different voters disagree. Reform voters most likely to pick Blair’s election as putting Britain on wrong track

Spoke to Aamna Mohdin for today’s @theguardian.com First Edition newsletter about the change to Automatic Voter Registration which I think is likely to ultimately have a bigger impact on elections (and democracy) than votes at 16. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

🧵Chaotic, Dangerous and a Mess, that's how we found Britons were most likely to describe the state of the world as part of our a deep dive into Brits attitudes to global affairs for the Sunday Times. Yet few want the UK to retreat inward. Read full piece on findings www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Some debate over the sentences given to the duo that cut down the Sycamore Gap Tree, our polling finds a plurality (37%) think the 4 year sentence was about right, 25% think it was too harsh and 27% too lenient.

Small changes mean Reform expand their lead over Labour, who drop 2 in our voting intention this week with Lib Dems also up 2. ➡️ REF UK 29% (+2) 🌹 LAB 22% (-2) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🔶 LIB DEM 15% (+2) 🌍 GREEN 8% (-1) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) N = 2,153| Dates: 18 - 20/7|Change w 14/7

🧵Agree with others that Rayner's Cabinet comments on cohesion were striking for being so frank and importantly so. The range of factors she identifies: immigration, tech, deindustrialisation, institutional failings all chime with our work with @uclpolicylab.bsky.social and @citizensuk.org

Proof of how housing has shot up the political agenda. Pre-Gove and DLUHC the MHCLG was fairly mid ranking/low profile brief, not where you put stars. Fact SoS/Shadow SoS now occupied by two of their respective parties biggest beasts (Rayner/Cleverly) shows they think it matters much more now.

Don’t say we didn’t try to warn you.