It is hard for me to distinguish this phantom number from actively lying about the supposed savings.

James Frayhe in the Telegraph made the inaccurate claim that "the government estimates that slowing the availability of welfare could save £10 billion in the next few years" They don't. But its the government's fault they created this phantom number & spun it to sound like a saving

The problem is its a political optics package which affects people's lives & where the political impacts were a disaster in purely political terms, primarily because of enormous negative impact on a million voters, and (second order) getting voice/ content wrong for Labour’s own coalition of support

It is really clear no proper thought was given in principle or practice to what happens to children. Lots of work would need to be done to fix the consequences. But the bias to affluent children over working-class children is simply inherent in this hierarchy of status plan bsky.app/profile/sund...

The combination of a political demand on the right for ICE-style deportation campaigns, and the woeful data-management of the Home Office, looks like a calamity waiting to happen. Windrush should cast a longer shadow than it does. www.economist.com/britain/2026...

Can’t even have Spurs appoint Jermain Defoe as their interim manager. Because of Woking.

This is the kind of question the govt will have to answer if it enacts the retrospective ILR changes. Imagine the headlines once we see cases of British families ripped apart because the foreign spouse can’t travel back in time. Some journalists might want to consider whether that will be ‘popular’.

does a majority of british people *really* think that the wife of the guy next door, who looks after the kids instead of working, claims no benefits, pays voluntary NI payments, should be forever barred from settling because someone decided to add in tax requirements on a family visa?

I had not quite twigged how err close Matt G’s book title was to the well-known polemic by Douglas Murray until I read this piece by @twelves.bsky.social. In retrospect, perhaps not surprising the book has received the critique it received... www.thenerve.news/p/matt-goodw...

Fascism is worse than neoliberalism in literally every way

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Viktor Orbán created a new state foundation that forced independent media owners to transfer ownership, changed the state media into a propaganda mouthpiece, and hounded the remaining few free media with tax audits, raids, and surveillance. Over 80% of the media in Hungary is now in his hands.

www.ft.com/content/4f09... Genuinely hard to overstate how much of a strategic defeat it would be for the United States if the war ends with effective Iranian control of the Strait.

A team of Kwik Fit fitters could not strip a car down as throughly as Andy Twelves dismantles Goodwin here. You could take off into space and nuke Goodwin from orbit and not devastate him as completely as Twelves does in this clip.

Well, after last night’s GBNews debate I no longer need to explain to students the risks of using AI to write papers since Matt G has done us all a favour by having a fever dream meltdown trying to justify it. And to think we thought his contributions to academia were over.

Someone in Reform said to me before the by-election: best pick an activist in Denton that nobody had heard of nationally, a community activist, somebody nobody “knew” They were right. It always felt like Reform picked someone for W/minster online, not here That isn’t as parochial as it sounds 1/2

Sorry, last post about Goodwin - this is objectively very funny indeed.

What I do think, though, is own it: you’re the ones that made a huge political debate happen, so you should be able to fill in the gaps. Don’t light the match then walk away from the firework. These are real places and communities that are being wound up.

Two very good points : 1. Bluesky all too often substitutes attempts at social punishment (insults, ad hominems, obscenity) for any kind of argument or substantive engagement 2. this kind of endless policing of ideological purity does bubkes to build the kind of constitutional coalition we need.

Blocking the pavement, assaulting cyclists, insulting passersby, impersonating the Highways Agency and all while wanted for a crime in Spain. And these guys have the nerve to say they are ‘patriots’. www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/2597257...

Surely I’m not the only one who thinks this whenever they see a map of The Strait Of Hormuz on the news?

DPIR's Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions @benansell.bsky.social  has launched a new app to explore data by parliamentary constituency: https://benwansell.github.io/constituency-map/

Trump’s understanding of why a defensive alliance might not wish to join his offensive campaign is a bit like an England fan complaining that Jordan Pickford doesn’t score more goals.

The world's most unaffordable housing is not where you think www.economist.com/asia/2026/03...

Good chart. www.ft.com/content/bc60... Iran war tests Donald Trump’s tolerance for ‘pain’ in oil market

Does being high-skilled protect you from ethnic bias when applying for a UK visa? In a new pre-registered experiment to be published in International Migration Review, I find that high occupational status doesn't shield immigrants from ethnic prejudice — it may activate it.

Three excellent things have just happened: 1) the Rycroft Review of pol finance has been published 2) govt is implementing key changes with immediate effect 3) those changes got cross-party support in the Commons. Careful scrutiny of the detail will now be essential. www.gov.uk/government/p...

Just read this excellent essay on AI and social science by @benansell.bsky.social benansell.substack.com/p/the-appren... Reports his experiences with Claude Code, mainly with #SocialScience but some other interesting examples. Not yet at PG/Professional standard, but not far off.

I was at a meeting yesterday where the most passionately expressed opinion was "the UK needs to channel more money to the SME sector, that is where all the growth is", and I felt I needed to put the data out there, again

Agree, this is fantastic

like six months ago, the IRGC consolidating a stranglehold on the entire iranian government would have been considered a worst case scenario

they entered into coalition govt with two centrist parties, eased some restrictions on immigration and were seen as insufficiently left on economics by voters. that’s really not the same strategy as 2019-2022, so not sure this confirms or disconfirms anything about it?

I really don’t think labour should copy danish soc dem‘s 2019-2022 strategy for reasons of strategy and morality, but the danish soc dem’s haven’t really followed the same strategy since the 2022 election. 1/

A bit of a back and forth about meaning of Danish election for other countries. I think the gist is this - Labour in the UK really did go great heavy on Danish Social Dems as the path to follow (regular visits etc). That strategy has fallen flat in Denmark (left block won’t have enough seats)...

'Hey, look at #Denmark! Social Democrats can stay relevant and marginalise the #farright by becoming - get this! - a bit like the far right!' Parrotted by every medium, contemplated by every SD party, ridiculed by every political scientist.

Denmark's experiment with nativist social democracy results in worst electoral performance since 1903. Labour's similar experiment - modelled on the Danes - will too unless it changes course drastically. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

This is the sort of phrasing you use in a legal letter you *really* relish writing.

White working class voters want recognition and inclusion: not appeals to crude prejudice. As argued here with @tariqmodood.bsky.social Sam Taylor Hill open.substack.com/pub/nationst...

Oh I’m not blocking you, I’m sharing this for the world to see MMost Jews in Europe do back Zionism and do support the existence of Israel (largely because of rampant antisemitism and fear of annihilation) Most Jews do not support this Israeli government or this “expansionism” that you speak of

I do think it says a lot that M&S, the most Middle England, Terry and June, aspiring Upper Middle Class supermarket ever, is doing this sort of stuff. So much of the transphobia "debate" exists entirely online for an unrepresentative section of the body politic.

Seem like he's pretty unpopular!

given the modern conservative fascination with Sparta it's at least a little funny that they've engineered a situation in which Persia is able to level a dramatically uneven battlefield by forcing the conflict into a narrow pathway

Another huge victory for the McSweeney strategy which appears to have reverse-infected the Danish Social Democrats. Big win for the left and the liberal parties though. Terrible for DPP. Assuming exit poll is right.

you see dubious political chicanery, I see admirable proof that the Met doesn't discriminate when it comes to its abject failure to investigate phone theft, even if the phone in question was being used to run the government

And yet you think Number 10's usually play on the right? 🤔

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Big row developing between two of Reform's leading public figures:

Finally got around to reading this piece by @benansell.bsky.social on the train this morning. Worth your time if you’re trying to understand where these tools genuinely add value (and where they don’t), not purely from a coding perspective.

This is such an instructive story of our times. www.theguardian.com/football/202...