NEW - Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB - @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social #OpenAccess

How can we compare the size and structuring power of different cleavages over time? Check out @jacobgunderson.bsky.social 's great paper and dataset for scholars working on cleavages at the party system level! The latest from @dpzollinger.bsky.social and I's Special Issue in @wepsocial.bsky.social.

This is a great study and makes the govt's focus on Reform all the more questionable. TLDR: Basically Reform are beating Labour not by taking Labour voters but by Labour losing Labour voters and Reform taking Tory voters and non-voters www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...

And a context where the "tactical option" on the left was much clearer. Today, if other parties on the left appear as a viable option to defeat *both* Reform and the Labour incumbent in the constituency, this could offer voters a double strategic reason to rally behind them. Tactical voting squared

This is important to remember in terms of upcoming by-elections. Even in Reform-facing seats, Labour's losses to progressive parties are now much more electorally costly than losses to Reform. In the May locals, this was additionally compounded by lower turnout among Labour's now don't knows.

Latest from our politics of impatience project - some excellent analysis by @mbarnfield.bsky.social showing Labour is losing the jam today voters. Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h

From the cross tabs - these figures are equally newsworthy but I think a much better reflection of vote intention Don't know 34% Conservative 10% Labour 9% Liberal Democrats 7% Reform UK 22% Green Party 9% Scottish National Party (SNP) 2% Plaid Cymru 1% Other 5%

Great read from James! Seems simple, but imo the antidote to the ecological fallacy is to just always think of constituency-level party fortunes as the result of changing vote shares (=winning party increasing their vote) *and* changing levels of fragmentation (=losing party losing votes elsewhere)

An important new paper from my talented, but BlueSky-less PHD Jose Lopes www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

‼️⬇️ The most important part: politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Absolute must-read from @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social. It's hard to imagine how Labour could be getting it more wrong - not least by talking up the replacement of the Conservatives by Reform, which will only accelerate the cannibalisation of the former's vote by the latter!

Come for the argument, stay for the nice data viz! 🤓

New 📊 with @profjanegreen.bsky.social on why Labour's electoral challenges are being misunderstood ⚠️ 1) We show that Labour are losing few voters to Reform *even in their most pro-Leave seats*, and explain why 2) Instead, Reform risk overtaking Labour in ++ seats by taking '24 Cons and non-voters

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a... You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...

BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment. Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...

📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨 "School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support" Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1080/0140... 🧵👇

Mine and @profsob.bsky.social paper Comparing registration systems using the International Difficulty of Registration Index (IDORI). How difficult is electoral registration in the UK? has been published. Please read it here, url: academic.oup.com/pa/article/d...

Opponents of the radical right often use - I'd argue, with some success - the argument that their opponents are a threat to democracy. But this argument is largely absent in Britain. Farage is a racist, he is incompetent, he's pro-Russia, but he's almost never portrayed as anti-democratic. (1)

For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇

The "a) Labour can lose votes in safe seats, and b) people will vote tactically in marginals" argument largely applies to a pre-2024 distribution of Labour votes. Both have, to a large extent, already happened - especially b). The party's majority now rests on that tactical coalition *holding up*

Did you know about the hidden way that parties in the UK receive political donations? @politicalquarterly.bsky.social have just published @markpackuk.bsky.social & mine's research into donations made directly to candidates at election time. Details of these donors are not publicly published....

This is so important!! An essential read to understand current and future vote switching... with the implication that if switching tends to happen within blocs, then the fate of many seats depends on a) how fragmented/ unified the vote is within each bloc, and b) turnout by bloc

🚨NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 Though people have moved on from Brexit, they still vote in line with their Brexit preferences - with age/education still separating voters. Voters now back party blocs, which matters greatly for Labour's current appeals to Reform voters. 🧵 academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

Yes, there are only 6 Labour seats where the Lib Dems are 2nd. This is because the 2024 Labour vote was propped up by tactical voting between the two parties. Allowing Labour to win seats in Conservative areas... seats they won't be able to keep if their left-wing coalition crumbles

This take on #BBCNewscast *completely* misses the point about how it's precisely losing votes to the LD and Greens that can make Labour lose seats to Reform ...

Tomorrow there's a big White Paper on immigration (www.gov.uk/government/n...). Whatever else it does, it's bound to refuel Labour’s internal debate about net migration -- a debate full of assumptions about public opinion. Strap in for a long thread about a survey testing some of those assumptions.

And if you want to see how this DOESN'T VARY proportionately by constituency 'type', but will make more MPs in these areas think its more of a problem, see my substack with @martamiori.bsky.social here: samf.substack.com/p/the-reform...

Our paper "Wishful Thinking in Response to Events" is now out @electoralstudies.bsky.social! w/ @polpsychjoe.bsky.social @florianstoeckel.bsky.social @vittoriomerola.bsky.social @benlyons.bsky.social @jasonreifler.bsky.social et al www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

People probably find this counter-intuitive because they have a misconception of: a) who today's Labour voters actually are (Remainy, wealthier) b) type of voter Reform attracts (same economic grievances, but economically conservative) c) how ++ working class Lab voters stopped voting in 2000s

Over last year I've been building a Senedd Election Simulator tool. It gives a useful (I hope!) visual explainer of how the new election system turns votes into seats. 🧵 on some of what it can do below: jaclarner.github.io/senedd_ethol...

Another thing about this - often ignored - is that not just are Labour already losing a higher % of voters to LD/Grn than to Ref, but a much higher % of the potential Reform defectors have defected than potential LD/Grn defectors. Future pain is not going to come from Reform.

Tried to take stock (with the amazing @profjanegreen.bsky.social) of what we do & don't know about what these local results mean for Reform, and the challenges the party would still face in a general election These challenges have implications for the Cons., but also Labour defending their seats...

I’ve written a post-elections piece with @martamiori.bsky.social coming your way soonish via @samfr.bsky.social. Just waiting to know which tweaks need to be made, and how big they are!

Great piece by @philipjcowley.bsky.social (with a hell of an opening anecdote!) For those interested, Phil is drawing on Miori and Green's piece from the @politicalquarterly.bsky.social special issue on the 2024 GE politicalquarterly.org.uk/blog/the-mos...

🚨 EPOP 2025 Call for papers now open! 🚨 Please fill out this form before the end of April to submit your paper proposal forms.office.com/e/4wBNMq4qwi Accepting presentations on all aspects of elections, public opinion and parties using all methods.

NEW!!! Mid-life adults are more politically undecided, feel most economically insecure, and - if economically insecure - are switching party support. These are the volatile voters in today’s age-structured politics all parties need to worry about. Esp Labour. See the thread and report here:

Had a great time talking to @mattchorley.bsky.social with @profjanegreen.bsky.social about our @politicalquarterly.bsky.social paper today! 👂📻 You can listen to it here, from 1:07:00 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

I've started a substack 😨 The first is segmentation analysis using @britishelectionstudy.com with economic, social, populism & efficacy scales on 2024 data Shows - Valence 💯 - Conservatives are screwed - Reform's high ceiling - Labour's precarity - Anti-populist campaigns are rubbish 👇

New paper on the most disproportionate UK election: how Labour doubled its seat share with a 1.6 point increase in vote share in 2024! With @profjanegreen.bsky.social Out now in @politicalquarterly.bsky.social Link: doi.org/10.1111/1467... Short thread below🧵

R&P editors' collection 2024 (4/4) Can AI accurately label open-text survey responses? @jonmellon.bsky.social, @jack-bailey.co.uk, @ralphscott.bsky.social, @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social, @martamiori.bsky.social & P. Schedemann's results suggest LLMs may allow for greater use of open-ended questions.

Pleased to share my initial analysis of values in the 2024. election. No doubt the Conservatives troubles were 'valence' troubles but the fragmentation of where that vote went and why Labour had troubles of their own needs another layer of explanation. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/AMJB5Y...

Delighted that our paper on who gets shortlisted and subsequently selected for winnable seats (with @robfordmancs.bsky.social @martamiori.bsky.social) is finally out journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/.... In short we found that selectorates still discriminate against women and ethnic minorities