This is a belated post about our paper in @poqjournal.bsky.social. We analyzed 100 survey experiments fielded by TESS (tessexperiments.org), using only information from the proposals to identify intended hypotheses. Here are some of the things we learned:

One of the most lopsided results you'll ever see in a poll, from our weekend Washington Post poll www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

In all seriousness, what is the probability that the US invades Greenland by the end of 2028? At this point, maybe 50/50? It would be extremely easy for the US to pull off, and there is zero chance that Denmark and its European allies would respond militarily.

Well, make no mistake, we're fully back to 19th century imperialism. Fake news meets might-makes-right. I have a strong feeling that the worst is still yet to come too. This is so depressing.

EHBEA has a shiny new website and it looks lovely 😃 Many thanks to @amrotella.bsky.social for leading EHBEA through this change, with assistance from @pablovarase.bsky.social and @jeannebovet.bsky.social 🙏

Over the moon 😍. My paper "Renewing Democracy: How Exposure to Electoral Turnovers Reinforces Citizens’ Democratic Support" is accepted in World Politics. LINK: osf.io/preprints/os.... First paper fully conceived since my second child was born 4 years ago. For those who know, big milestone. 🧵 1/

1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy? Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not. 🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac

A thread about being wrong: 5 years ago, we wrote a paper about how how newly enfranchised 16-year-olds vote in Austria. But we were wrong. This year, @elisabethgraf.bsky.social, @schnizzl.bsky.social, Sylvia Kritzinger and I are setting the record straight: authors.elsevier.com/c/1juT5xRaZk...

🎙️In this episode, @omarhgallego.bsky.social discusses public opinion and perceptions of migration, the recent migration policies of UK parties, and the politics behind them. open.spotify.com/episode/4NwR...

new paper by Sean Westwood: With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research

Our study on public immigration misperceptions is out! Prior research overstated their prevalence due to flawed measurement. Our new approach separates real misperceptions from uninformed guessing — showing they’re less common than widely assumed and ideologically motivated. doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

Ever wondered why some countries get recognition while others struggle to be seen? My book 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘐𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘴 is finally out in the world! 📘 academic.oup.com/book/61560

This article provides a minute-by-minute analysis of how Trump (Granger) causally contributed to violence on J6 doi.org/10.1098/rsif... @anthonymkreis.bsky.social In light of sum of evidence I remain unconvinced that BBC got things (very) wrong @jagolinzer.bsky.social @profsanderlinden.bsky.social

Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD

"While high-quality content is posted more and receives more total engagement across platforms...a given author attracts higher levels of engagement when they post lower-quality content" "pattern we find seems to be driven more by an underperformance of particularly popular high-quality outlets"

From April 2025 - Does the Accumulation of Assets Shape Voting Preferences? Evidence from a Longitudinal Study in Britain - cup.org/42JWcZl - Justin Robinson, @pavlosvas1.bsky.social & @sofiavasilopoulou.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Wish I was still living in Brooklyn, so I could have voted yesterday. Would have been the first time in my entire life that I was actually excited and hopeful about casting a vote. So proud of New York City right now.

🆕 Latest article out @electoralstudies.bsky.social! Left parties' higher salience on cultural issues associated w/ higher support from working-class voters. Social democrats much more sensitive to different strategies, should pursue more left/salient economics www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

A massive study on the effects of social class tested 35 hypotheses in 4 countries (N = 33,536) Only 50% of findings replicated Hypotheses based on differences between social class contexts in terms of constraints, uncertainty & status were supported: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Monty Python understood p-hacking

Romani ethnic identification attenuates with educational attainment www.nber.org/system/files...

Currently in FirstView: In “Balancing Precision and Retention in Experimental Design,” @gustavodiaz.org and Erin Rossiter study how experimental design choices can increase precision when estimating treatment effects. Specifically, they examine block-randomized and pre-post designs.

I'm starting to explore {simDAG}, a nifty #rstats package that has a nice API for specifying DAGs and then simulating data from them: robindenz1.github.io/simDAG/

@electoralstudies.bsky.social If you’re interested in academic studies of political polarisation we have loads of great papers at Electoral Studies. Check out this one by Joseph Phillips www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

This is a highly interesting, timely and great initiative - a new diamond OA journal for #replication research! It is interdisciplinary, but #PolSci is specifically invited. Hence, if you or someone you know has an interesting replication paper, do not hesitate to submit!

NEW - 'The Power of the Crowd: How the Public Can Both Spoil and Improve Social Media as a Source of Information' This Cambridge Element by F. Stöckel, S. Stöckli, B.A. Lyons, H. Kroker & @jasonreifler.bsky.social is free to read for 2 weeks. cup.org/4344Tyl #cambridgeelements #politics #Polisky

A Brief History of Men are Becoming Less Manly 🧵

A major step forward for large-scale survey research from our own Thomas Robinson & @patricksturg.bsky.social: SOCbot is a powerful AI tool for open-ended survey items—fast, cheap, reduces burden, and tackles longstanding measurement error in social science & labour stats Paper: tinyurl.com/2yxcbshs

Updated version of "The Effects of Participating in Government-Led Citizens’ Assemblies“ with @mcduarte.bsky.social and @jmfernandes86.bsky.social Full draft: osf.io/preprints/so...

#OpenAccess - Believing What Politicians Communicate: Ideological Presentation of Self and Voters’ Perceptions of Politician Ideology - https://cup.org/4gTSToM - @hjghassell.bsky.social, @michaelheseltine.bsky.social & @reuning.bsky.social#OpenAccess‬ #FirstView

📢 Call for Papers! We’re inviting submissions for the @politicalnetworks.bsky.social Online Colloquium (2025–26) (w/ @mtp.bsky.social) 🔹 Monthly, 1-hr sessions 🔹 Read-ahead format (no presentations) 🔹 Open to scholars in poli sci & related fields 🔹 Deadline: 17 Oct 2025 Learn more & submit here 👇

That is what happens when sick people who get off on abusing others can act without impunity

Still confused about EPSA vs. EPSS? Which conference should you go to? Here is a link to clarify things: epssnet.org/uncategorize... TL;DR: "EPSA" community will be in Belfast. Same community, new organisation, bigger mission; slightly new name; and a very different foundation @epssnet.bsky.social

Glad to see this out at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! I show that the immigration-crime issue, when salient, can shift leftist cosmopolitans to the Right. This is due to leftist voters being more conservative on crime than leftist parties. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Just out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social 🚨 Together with @dschraff.bsky.social, I ask: Is the urban–rural divide in Europe affectively polarised? 👉 journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... 1/7 🧵

Not only is their brain sample in no way representative, but the entire correlational analysis effectively rests on a sample size of 17! The Spirit Level came out 16 years ago - I thought we were past these kind of "findings" by now?!

🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are? @simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions Thread 🧵1/10

I'm sorry, but how is this different from what we did after 9/11? The people tortured at black sites, held indefinitely w/o trial at Gitmo, or killed by drones were also targeted w/o public evidence by top officials. OK, it's more brazen and the "enemy" is expanded, but it's still all subjective

New in PNAS with @seanjwestwood.bsky.social and @ylelkes.bsky.social: Why depolarization is hard: Evaluating attempts to decrease partisan animosity in America @prl.bsky.social @pnas.org www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

🚨🚨🚨 Survey Researchers! WE HAVE A HUGE PROBLEM!🚨🚨🚨 I have access to the Comet browser by Perplexity. I asked it to pretend to be a human, take the survey, and give me feedback. IT DID!

'Violence has never been a distortion in American politics. It has been one of its recurring features, not an aberration but a persistent force, destructive and yet oddly creative'

Seems like we should start demanding that people pre-register any projects based on LLM samples of "respondents", like with any other data (observational or experimental)

Whoa—my book is up for pre-order! 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity. tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8

🚨New pre-print🚨 "Do citizens’ views of democracy and its actors vary with how they feel?”, @lilymasonphd.bsky.social and I ask in a new paper. Why would they? While citizens widely endorse democracy in principle, temporary factors often shape their views. Also, work on “irrelevant events" 1/8🧵

Fascinating read!

As much as I dislike Trump, I just can't accept this incorrect claim. Trump didn't create extrajudicial killings. The vast majority of US presidents carried out unlawful acts like this in one way or another. I hate to break it to you, but there is nothing new to see here, folks.

Major new paper by finds implicit measures like the IAT are no better than asking people directly about their biases. After decades of avoiding self-reports, turns out our sophisticated replacement tools work no better than what we abandoned. New post!

I'd say there are 2 unscientific ways that "irrational" as a concept is used: Descriptive: irrational is a definitional tautology (everything has a reason to it), making it useless Normative: irrational is deviations from a desired benchmark, making it elitist & judgmental Please stop using it!

The pretty draft is now online. Link to paper (free): www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10.... Our replication package starts from the raw data and we put real work into making it readable & setting it up so people could poke at it, so please do explore it: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

Missed it in august! But this (with @sumitra.bsky.social) also is out at @bjpols.bsky.social We map how religious beliefs and identities affect the endorsement of falsehoods, and use an experiment in India to test. More to do on the contextual drivers of misinfo, but this is a start. Check it :)