Across 130+ years, the gap between MC fathers and tightly-matched controls has grown, not shrunk. Vs year of birth or congress numbers. Whatever opened up about American politics, it wasn’t who gets to Congress.

The Hertie School Data Science Lab is hiring a postdoc. This is an appealing position with fairly low teaching/admin responsibilities and a lot of freedom to develop your research agenda. Feel free to reach out if you want to know more! hertie-school.dvinci-easy.com/en/p/en/jobs...

🚨CfA🚨 We're looking for a postdoc joining us in summer in Berlin. 3-year position @hertieschool.bsky.social @hertiedatascience.bsky.social. Pursue your own research agenda in data science for public policy - ML/AI, causal inference, computational methods. Questions? Don't hesitate to reach out!

so glücklich habe ich Paul Lendvai noch nie erlebt. Er sagt er habe die Ungarn-Wahl „mit einem Gefühl der Freude erlebt, wie er es noch selten in seinem langen Leben verspürt hat.“ Seine Gedanken sind sehr lesenswert: www.zeit.de/politik/2026...

New paper out in @thejop.bsky.social : "Immigration, Public Housing, and Support for the French National Front." How does expanding public housing affect far-right support? The answer depends heavily on local conditions, and specifically on local immigrant shares. Paper: doi.org/10.1086/736361

🚨 Job Alert 🚨 We have an opening for a 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗱𝗼𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 @stawi-univie.bsky.social starting Aug/Sep 2026! Focus: political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields 📅Apply by 29 April 2026 jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Universi...

I'm hiring a postdoc! @goetheuni.bsky.social Focus: CSS, political behavior, political communication & transforming information environments. 📍 Frankfurt | ⏳ 3 years | 📅 Deadline: 14 April 2026 Full job ad here: www.uni-frankfurt.de/48794987/Zen... (search for “political behavior” to find it)

Do conjoint/factorial/vignette experiments reflect choices in the real world? Are hypothetical scenarios in the artificial survey context externally valid? Do hypothetical bias, intention-behavior gap and social desirability biases undermine validity? Two cautionary studies on this question:

Our first guest at the Inside Data Journalism series, was Laura Bronner @laurabronner.bsky.social, who brings a rare combination of editorial experience and methodological training to questions about how quantitative evidence enters public discourse. Read more👉 www.hertie-school.org/en/datascien...

Unsere neue Studie zeigt, dass der meiste Hass online von einer Minderheit der User:innen geschrieben wird. Und das hat Konsequenzen für die Inhaltsmoderation -- da besonders toxische User:innen sich durch Gegenrede nicht vom Hass abbringen lassen. Details: www.public-discourse.org/articles/has...

Today we kick off Inside Data Journalism, a spring talk series where leading practitioners share insights into their work and the future of data-driven storytelling. Join @laurabronner.bsky.social for an inspiring talk on skepticism in data storytelling. ℹ️👉 www.hertie-school.org/en/datascien...

Can feed algorithms shape what people think about politics? Our paper "The Political Effects of X's Feed Algorithm" is out today in Nature and answers "Yes." www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Who produces hate speech? And how does that matter for content moderation? We show that across different countries and platforms, a relatively small share of users are responsible for a very large share of hate - overall, 5% write 83-100% of hateful content. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

The Data Science Lab presents Inside Data Journalism, a spring talk series featuring leading practitioners who share practical insights into their work and the evolving field of data journalism. More ℹ️👉 www.hertie-school.org/en/datascien...

🚨My first preprint is out on @socarxiv.bsky.social! How do AI-generated content labels shape what people see as authentic on social media — and do labels have unintended side effects? osf.io/preprints/so... A thread 🧵

Is online discourse getting worse? To bring actual data to bear on this question, we launched the Public Discourse Indicator, a dashboard tracking online comments submitted to several major Swiss newspapers. Our aim here is twofold: www.public-discourse.org/en/public-di...

✖️Who produces most online hate speech and how effective is counterspeech? ➡️ @gloriagennaro.bsky.social et al. find that hate speech is concentrated among a few users and that counterspeech on X mostly fails to curb prolific offenders www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

These average solve times don't seem to account for out-selection as the puzzles get harder... Mondays/Tuesdays probably include a bunch of people who never do the rest of the week. It'd be interesting to show the average number of solvers per day, for context.

Join us on Thursday, 18 Sept, at 14:30 CET for the International Roundtable on Computational Social Science with Laura Bronner @laurabronner.bsky.social 🔹Tackling harmful online comments on news platforms: three field experiments 🔹More info: liu.se/en/article/s...

📢 In a new online field experiment, we find that #counterspeech with perspective-based messages can reduce online hate speech, and its 🌟amplification🌟 with a large research team across #ETHZurich @ipz.bsky.social @uclspp.bsky.social and beyond www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Wow, thank you for helping to keep this alive. I get so many notes from people using this in their coursework.

The end of 538 is a huge shame - both for the incredible people who worked there, and for political and data journalism as a whole. I was lucky enough to work beside them for a few years and want to say a bit about what I think was so valuable that I hope doesn't vanish from the media landscape: 🧵

Out now open access at @ajpseditor.bsky.social. 194 potential exclusion-restriction violations for studies using weather as an instrumental variable onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Interested in how people talk to each other online? Care about causal inference and/or NLP? Want to design and implement field experiments? Come do a PhD with Dominik Hangartner, me, and a bunch of awesome people at IPL in Zurich: jobs.ethz.ch/job/view/JOP...

Interested in how people talk to each other online? Care about causal inference and/or NLP? Want to design and implement field experiments? Come do a PhD with Dominik Hangartner, me, and a bunch of awesome people at IPL in Zurich: jobs.ethz.ch/job/view/JOP...

The US2020 project was not independent (and that's good) open.substack.com/pub/drewdimm...

I really like this development. But it's interesting how much effort is expended on post-publication review, rather than proper pre-publication code review like I used to do at 538. Maybe checking data munging & analysis should be an integral part of peer review, done by paid journal employees -

I've often wondered why we don't invite original authors on replications, especially ones that demonstrate issues with the original papers. It would increase code-sharing, transparency, and lessen the shame of retraction, which would be good for science.

New paper in @apsrjournal.bsky.social with @andreasbeerli.bsky.social, Dominik Hangartner, and Dalston Ward about #immigration and voting for the #FarRight in #Switzerland

There but for the grace of god

Really interesting -- and I especially appreciate how easy to understand the charts are:

Professional software developers routinely release code that contains bugs. Expecting researchers to always do better than this is unrealistic and leads to defensive behavior

⬇️❗This is so crucial, we can all learn a lot from this exmple. I am glad I had @laurabronner.bsky.social reviewing my analysis code for this paper several times, and I think that's a huge asset of collaborative research.

We created a new dashboard for @zeit.de showing the current state of election polls in Germany ahead of the upcoming election in February. Also shows probabilities for govt. coalitions based on the polls. The full article version also features my favorite sparklines. www.zeit.de/politik/deut...

A thread about being wrong: 5 years ago, we wrote a paper about how how newly enfranchised 16-year-olds vote in Austria. But we were wrong. This year, @elisabethgraf.bsky.social, @schnizzl.bsky.social, Sylvia Kritzinger and I are setting the record straight: authors.elsevier.com/c/1juT5xRaZk...

Offizieller Wahlkampfauftakt auf @zeit.de: Wir haben unseren Wahltrend neu gestartet. Bis 23. Februar zeigen wir nun tagesaktuell, wo die Parteien in den Umfragen stehen und welche Koalitionen laut unserer Simulation der künftigen Sitzverteilung möglich wären. zeit.de/wahltrend

This election is uncertain not just because the polls are close, but also because a decisive victory for either candidate is within a normal-sized polling error - and since the polls seem to be herding, a polling error may be likelier than usual. Great piece by @lennybronner.com :

😍 the use of baselines when reporting numbers

Made a chart

Underrated achievement: first load of laundry in a new apartment

One thing I'll miss about working from home with @ddimmery.com is hearing a giggle and knowing I will get a tweet in the next few seconds

sometimes brits are european

Wrote some thoughts on microblogging (derogatory)

Any technical job

Doing my part for gender equality by visiting Roman ruins