Our paper "A fragmented field" has just been accepted at AMPPS. We find it's not just you, psychology is really getting more confusing (construct and measure fragmentation is rising). We updated the preprint with the (substantial) revision, please check it out. osf.io/preprints/ps...

We took pains to avoid overfitting. In addition to the standard training/test/holdout divide, we also ran a registered report follow up and locked down the predictions before we collected data. Accuracy was indeed a tad attenuated r=.71 -> .59.

Finally, @bjoernhommel.bsky.social's and my paper introducing the SurveyBot3000 is officially out in AMPPS. It's a fine-tuned language model that guesstimates correlations between survey items from text alone. Not perfectly, but useful for search, for example. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

I’m vocally skeptical of silicon samples, yet vocally impressed by SurveyBot3000. The difference: this does not rely on magic beans or assumed omniscience, it is trained and validated against a large corpus of highly relevant data and makes specific predictions with known accuracy and precision.

Survey experiments have become a popular methodology among social scientists. Has it been effective? In POQ, Rauf et al. study the efficacy of 100 survey experiments. Their results show that a majority of hypotheses were not supported. Read now: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

Is it just me or has bluesky started to feel like good old academic twitter recently?

Australia bans social media for the youth. Any plans that @jonathanhaidt.bsky.social and his critics get together for an adversarial collaboration to pre-register success/failure criteria on a specific diff-in-diff design to exploit this natural experiment? pca.st/episode/0155...

i guess the expertise of the authors is limited to experience of being criticised

I was also bored and pulled up the replication package. The results are quite sensitive in aggregate to needing the controls. Here's the replication of Figure 3, including the case w/o controls:

Thanks to @johnholbein1.bsky.social I learned about this paper on rent control in Berlin. Because I was marking, I immediately downloaded the replication materials. bsky.app/profile/john...

UK Metascience Funding "The UK government has announced a major increase in funding for metascience over the next four years, including a more than trebling of investment in the UK Metascience Unit."

🚀 We’re hiring a Postdoc! Our group is looking for a Postdoc to join the team working on computational comm research. If you’re excited about automated content analysis, large text & social-media data, open science, this might be for you. 💡 Sounds like you or someone you know? Please share/boost!

We're thrilled to open registration for our 1st 2026 Replication Games. The event will be at the University of Zurich on January 19th. Psych, public health, pol sci and econ studies will be reproduced! Register here: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...

Grateful for the opportunity to contribute—by name—to what must be the most massive collaborative encyclopedia project of all time, next to Wikipedia. All credit goes to @annisch.bsky.social who did the heavy lifting for the overview article on Populist Attitudes. osf.io/preprints/so...

Christmas came early this year! Very happy to see our paper out in Science Advances. Led by @lfoswaldo.bsky.social, we ran a unique collective field-experiment on Reddit, to better understand who is participating in online debates and why. Paper: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... And more below 👇

📢 New paper out! What do people want from AI systems? How should outputs be adjusted? And how do views differ between countries? @adrauc.bsky.social and I explore this for @socialmedia-soc.bsky.social in Public Opinion on the Politics of AI Alignment. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

I like this idea. Let's include retraction in university rankings (And perhaps successful reproductions)

With my project IMMERSE I investigate whether immersive narrative interventions (storytelling, live theatre, video games and virtual reality) can strengthen support for liberal democracy by engaging people more deeply than conventional communication. See: www.uva.nl/en/content/n... 2/2

Motivated reasoning is a well-understood phenomenon - or is it? In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns. doi.org/10.1525/coll... Here is a 🧵

Blogs deserve love too (and interoperability) ❤️ Rogue Scholar (rogue-scholar.org) makes science blogs more findable and citable: full-text search, long-term archiving, DOIs, metadata... You can register your blog and search ~200 blogs already there. Wrote more at www.linkedin.com/posts/alelaz...

Today’s example of “self reported behaviour is a poor proxy of behaviour”: environmental behaviour

Ich bin froh, dass wir uns als politikwissenschaftliche Fachvereinigung dieses wichtigen Themas annehmen:

This paper is now out in Artificial Intelligence Review Bottom line: using LLMs to "simulate humans" sits in a no-man’s-land between theory and empirics—too opaque to function as a model, too ungrounded to count as evidence. Validation remains the core challenge. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

How to explain the “credibility revolution” in a few minutes? "I" "made" a short video that tries to show why clever (natural) experiments and research design beat pure statistical adjustment for causal claims. I am genuinely curious what methods people think: youtu.be/Fv14ktwA31Q?...

🌳 Thrilled to launch The PopulisTree — a new website covering decades of populism in Europe (both national and European elections) using a new taxonomy and dataset. 🔗 populistree.org 📄 More in my brand new article in European Union Politics: 🔗 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Yes I totally agree, but to me that's the key learning point that I want laypeople to take away from this - depending on the what the model is instructed to do, it can sway you either way. So it's critical to know who is instructing any model you're talking to and have some sense of their agenda

Early Christmas present! For the last couple of years, I have been helping to update this textbook for a new edition. I joined a great team that had written the original book, and together we thoroughly revised it and updated it with new research and examples. My copies arrived just the other day!

🚀 How do citizens imagine their future democracy – on Mars and on Earth? Using large survey experiments in the US and Germany, we explore how people envision democratic governance with and without path dependencies 🪐 Read the preprint here ➡️ osf.io/preprints/so...

1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy? Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not. 🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac

Was premature to say that "survey experiments are the most accessible implementation of the learnings of the credibility revolution". convincing counterpoint by @cdsamii.bsky.social that many survey experiments pursue different goals and originate from a different history of ideas (Link below)

#Kanada setzt klare Richtlinien für die Luftqualität in Innenräumen! 👍🏻 - Klare Anerkennung, dass Bakterien, Viren (COVID-19) und Pilze über die Luft übertragen werden. - Ventilation, Filtration und Hepa Luftreiniger - Grenzwert 800ppm CO2

"Die Brandmauer steht für mich dafür, dass sich die demokratischen Parteien entschieden haben, nicht mit extremistischen Kräften zusammenzuarbeiten. Und das halte ich auch aus historischen Gründen für richtig, weil es um die Grundlagen unserer Demokratie geht." - Raoul Roßmann

A reflection on the credibility revolution in political science by @guygrossman.bsky.social et al: if you measure the influence of the credibility revolution by the relative proportion of articles using design-based tools, you may underestimate how impactful the credibility revolution has been!

Survey experiments are certainly not a golden bullet. But a) think about where we came from (large data with poor measures and strong modeling assumptions) b) they are far from being as bad as so many want them to be. For once: Maybe we could be humble about different approaches.

New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf... 🧵

Super impressive uptake in the use of pre-analysis plans!

Political scientists love their survey experiments.

"The Credibility Revolution in Political Science" osf.io/preprints/so...

"[Political science] studies without an explicit identification strategy...constitute nearly 40% of empirical quantitative work."

I always make sure to somehow squeeze this graph into my teaching because I think it’s just very important to know this.

LoPaPol is back! 💥 Come join us in Darmstadt for the 3️⃣ edition of the Local Party Politics workshop! ⏰ 24-25 March 2026 🚧 Organizers: @christinajuen.bsky.social Björn Egner @pluggedchris.bsky.social & myself with the help of LoPaPol legends @simonotjes.bsky.social & @rafreuse.bsky.social

Wenn Gewaltverbrecher nur Bewährungsstrafen bekommen, ist das für Rechte oft ein Skandal - außer eben der Täter ist selber rechts! Wir schauen uns in diesem Monat ein paar Urteile an, die zeigen, dass gerade in Sachsen der Rechtsstaat da ziemlich lasch agiert. www.volksverpetzer.de/serie/urteil...

⏰ Two weeks left to apply for SekMethoden 2026 — the annual meeting of the DVPW Section "Methods of Political Science"! ⬇️ See below for the CfP and link to the application portal. @gessler.bsky.social @lukrudolph.bsky.social @donyhu.bsky.social @dvpw.bsky.social

I have now read the response by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega again with a clearer eye. Multiple claims in this response are untrue or seek to obscure the truth. My interest has always been the accuracy of the scientific record, so I feel compelled to note some of these claims here.

A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published. Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response. osf.io/rn6h3/files/...

Important public good (replications are much needed to help keep the whole enterprise honest but under-supplied)

@sonjapriebus.bsky.social Aleksandra Maatsch& me are organizing a workshop on 'Opposing challenges to democracy across contexts' in Frankfurt (Oder) 26-27 March 2026. Do you have a paper that might fit? ➡️Call for Papers (📆Deadline: 05/12) www.dvpw.de/informatione...

Released a #Quarto extension for collapsible content blocks. Why? The {details} are inside. 📚 quarto.thecoatlessprofessor.com/details/ 💻 github.com/coatless-qua...

We are very looking forward to having you, @fialalenka.bsky.social, and hosting the event @uni-muenster.de jointly with #MüCOS and #CDSC! The (unexpectedly) high number of participants once again confirms that #reproducibility and #openscience really matters.

Really great and interesting paper: "Using British electoral panel data, it shows that greater open-mindedness, tolerance for uncertainty, and social distrust are associated with greater political attitudinal volatilty."