Really think the game being played with futures markets is leaving a lot of folks unprepared for the future which now seems functionally locked in. If supply is down 10m barrels a day, then demand will, eventually, have to conform and that is going to be unpleasant.

In a nutshell, the ANES data shows: 📉 Social media use is shrinking; engagement collapsing 💥 Twitter/X posting has moved ~70 POINTS to the right 🧩 Platforms are splintering 🔊 Fewer people are talking — but those still talking are more politically extreme

Is social media dying? How much did Twitter change as it became X? Which party now dominates the conversation? Using nationally representative ANES data from 2020 & 2024, I map how the U.S. social media landscape has changed Here are the key take-aways 🧵 Full paper out now in in JQD:DM!

Great night for Virginia polls, with 94% of votes counted and the the "Yes" margin expected to grow a bit more www.washingtonpost.com/elections/re...

No, it does not make any sense, but the US has decided to pretend that Iranian control over the Strait does not break the ceasefire, and Iran has decided to pretend that the blockade does not break the ceasefire.

Trump's approval is similar to GWB's in 2006 but the generic ballot in June 2006 (when GWB was at about 38%) was +11 for dems. Now it's +5. Partisanship and -ve partisanship are much stronger now. Many R disapprovers will remember who their team is when there's a D on a ballot.

Absolutely incredible. NASA Astronaut Reid Wiseman, who commanded Artemis II, took this footage from the far side of the Moon with his iPhone. Watch with sound on.

NEW - Elite Misperceptions in Foreign Policy - cup.org/4cmGwBb - @jkertzer.bsky.social, Joshua Busby, Jonathan Monten, @jordantama.bsky.social & @ckafura.bsky.social #OpenAccess

New from @victordcha.bsky.social @csis.org in @foreignaffairs.com, out today: the case for a “cold peace” with North Korea. Three decades. 7 U.S. presidents. Denuclearization failed — the arsenal only grew. Dr. Cha says it’s time for a new approach. 🧵 Read: foreignaffairs.com/north-korea/...

Japan moved to allow the sale of more weapons abroad, in a shift away from pacifist policies imposed after World War II. nyti.ms/4dZQ46q

Economic security and mega chokepoints: Japan’s strategic reset www.brookings.edu/events/econo...

The Blackness scale might be one of my favorite parts of the paper. People often talk about identity as continuous (“She’s Black, but she ain’t Black Black”), so we developed a way to capture that perception. We then estimate how much different traits predict those ratings.

My friend is reading The Murderbot Diaries by @marthawells.com, which inspired me to finally make this guide to the series. I'm pretty proud of this table. I tried really hard to make it easy to understand, since most sources for this information are pretty confusing.

This is cyberpunk, for better or for worse

+1. Big boon for Korean exporters, who have a very impressive track record of making deliveries. Turns out customers like getting things they want when they expect them.

Next week is 10 years since we lost Prince. Since then, the community of Prince scholars has come together regularly for academic symposia on his legacy and works; you can watch for free this weekend if you'd like to join us online or in person at NYU. Just register here! iwonderu.polishedsolid.com

Two more stories suggesting that time is not on the Trump administration’s side... (1/3)

As Australia's NDS is released, a story from earlier this month => Japan and Australia eye joint missile and drone production amid U.S. stockpile concerns www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/04...

Rule changes coming next week. BIG NEWS. Here's the JT's look at what this means from late last year => Japan has long had tough rules on arms exports. That may soon change. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/12...

A shocking new poll result: Many Americans somehow don't have a favorite dinosaur. And only 6% give the correct answer (triceratops). Check out YouGov's new polling on Americans and dinosaurs: yougovamerica.substack.com/p/whats-your...

cool. cool cool cool cool www.niemanlab.org/2026/04/soci...

It’s literally this joke from Parks and Rec

Not sure what's more surprising here: that 41% of all US deployed Navy ships, including three aircraft carriers, are now operating in/around the Persian Gulf, or that the US Navy only currently has around 65 ships deployed worldwide

61% of Israelis oppose the Iran cease-fire and 73% expect fighting to resume within a year and 69% support for continuing operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli public opinion, not just Bibi, just so far out of synch with US and global opinion. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

A few notes on this piece. I started with the idea of comparing the moments after Jan 6 with the moment last week when people all across the board started talking 25th + impeachment 1/

The trope is that the US achieves its military objectives but fails to translate them into strategic success. In this war even the first part isn't true. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Combine the anger of people power with the ruthless professionalism of a political operation that has enough former regime insiders to anticipate the autocrat's every move

🗳️ Les résultats qui arrivent des circonscriptions rurales en déclin qui sont traditionnellement des fiefs du Fidesz sont vraiment très mauvais pour Orban.

New CBS News poll Trump approval rating: 39% 👍, 61% 👎 Trump approval on handling of • Economy: 35% • Inflation: 31% • Immigration: 44% • Iran: 36% Poll finds most Americans take a dim view of the Iran war, believe it’s going badly and don’t think Trump has a clear plan.

The polls have closed in Hungary - and it appears that turnout will approach 80%, a post-communist record.

Again, it seems like everyone is agreement on everything except who gets to win the war.

I knew it was bad but really didn’t appreciate it was quite this bad as.ft.com/r/db911dd6-f...

Okay this isn’t really happening anymore so I can tell you how l had “internal ICE sources”: the 3000 very stir-crazy ICE agents were all going wild on Minneapolis Tinder. Local girls would match with them and string them along for intel. They loved to brag about what they were doing all day

Really excited to welcome two new colleagues to @global-affairs.bsky.social: @atabatabai.bsky.social as Vice President of Research, Security and Defense, and @kuorum.bsky.social as Vice President of Research, Geostrategy and Diplomacy (and Bouton Asia fellow) globalaffairs.org/chicago-coun...

Huge shift in American views of Israel 2022: 55% view Israel favorably, 42% unfavorably 2026: 37% view Israel favorably, 60% unfavorable Generational divide hits both parties: 57% of *Republicans under 50* are negative on Israel via Pew Research Center poll: www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/u...

This @goodauth.bsky.social piece shows lots of ambivalence in Republican views of Iran and Trump's foreign policy Most are not strong supporters of the war or how Trump's handling it; and a majority of GOP voters still want the U.S. to be less involved overseas goodauthority.org/news/republi...

Turnout will more than double come November, which will likely mitigate some of this swing. But don't get me wrong: Republicans have a extremely serious enthusiasm problem that is only getting worse

The next Murderbot is out on May 5 www.barnesandnoble.com/w/platform-d...

Trump backed down (good), but this is a win for Iran. Legitimates Iran’s control of the strait. He chose humiliation over escalation. For now. Or until he realizes he chose humiliation. cc @dandrezner.bsky.social

It is an excellent book and a revealing story.

Whoa 🤯 The Moon, in full eclipse, with the #Artemis II Orion spacecraft. Part of the Moon and spacecraft are lit by Earthshine, and both Saturn and Mars are visible to the lower right. Incredible. Details: images.nasa.gov/details/art0...

Fascinating nuggets in this recent Illinois housing poll 61% say new housing more important than protecting neighborhood from change 69% support apartments and townhomes on all resi lots 68% support single stair 63% support ADUs 66% homes on 1.5k sq ft lots chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2...

Oh my gd, the Artemis II crew doing a parody of a bad 1980s sitcom intro from in space. Source: www.instagram.com/p/DWwuHPfCZ8Z/

NASA #Artemis II flyby coverage schedule; all times in Eastern. You can follow along live on NASA+ (plus.nasa.gov) or on the NASA YouTube channel (www.youtube.com/@NASA). It should be amazing to watch!

JA-gotta-be-SSMe www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The NSF 2027 budget has noted that they will close out the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Science Program (SBE). This is not a good thing. nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/files/FY-202...

This image of home just came down from the Artemis II crew. Taken after their translunar injection burn, there are aurorae at top right and lower left, and zodiacal light at lower right. Credit: NASA/Reid Wiseman

The global wave of energy rationing - good piece on the contagion from the war www.ft.com/content/a9f5...

This is so cool - NASA has a constant livestream of the Artemis II mission, from the cockpit, complete with their audio: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rwf...

I went back to capture what the astronauts said in full when the clock was stopped at T-10 minutes and they were asked if they were go for launch: This is Victor. We are going for our families. This is Christina. We are going for our teammates. This is Jeremy. We are going for all humanity.