@atabatabai.bsky.social compares Moscow's increasing gray-zone campaign against NATO allies to Beijing's pressure on Taiwan and looks at the implications of this enhanced adversary cooperation for the United States and its allies. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/russ...

Every winter since Russia launched its full scale invasion, it has tried–and mostly failed–to plunge Ukraine into darkness. @lapatina.bsky.social explains why this upcoming winter may be different with Russia deploying new tactics as Kyiv launches its own strikes against Moscow’s energy sites.

At @lawfaremedia.org, we spent a month tracking down public info on domestic deployments of National Guard, Reserve, and Active-Duty troops. What we found—and what we didn't—revealed a disturbing lack of transparency on how and why military forces are being used on U.S. soil.

Happy to have made my Rational Security debut with @tylermcbrien.com and @sranderson.bsky.social -- and the first of my (hopefully many) contributions to @lawfaremedia.org as the new Public Service Fellow!

I think it would be a huge public service if major media outlets interviewed people given RIF notices and let them explain in detail what their jobs are so that people can judge for themselves whether these positions are wasteful like Trump and Vought claim or whether they help the country prosper.

The key here is to understand what Hegseth means by "facility." At first glance, this framing makes it sound unusual and rather alarming. But it could be rather routine (we host allies and partners frequently, which is an important component of our cooperation with them).

Are furloughed federal employees entitled to backpay? The short answer is yes furloughed federal employees are entitled to backpay, but the mechanism a little complicated. And, importantly, it means the House GOP CR is insufficient for reopening the govt & needs to be amended. Thread explaining:

This really is a shame, and an own goal: - Removes important source of US higher ed funding; - Deprives American students of a more enriching learning experience; - Hurts our ability to attract talent to America and competitive edge; - And, overall, limits a core element of U.S. soft power globally.

The admin consistent message re military service is this: If you're a white man, serving your country is your right. It's the country's privilege to have you serve regardless of your flaws. For the rest of us, serving our country is a privilege that should be taken away regardless of our strengths.

9 months on the job, and this is the extent of what the Secretary has to say about the day-to-day work of the Department he leads. And this is fundamentally the issue: If you think all DoD does is break things & kill, you don’t appreciate the range of skills required outside of physical strength.

Here it is. This is what it’s all about: Reshaping the military. Out: Anyone who disagrees with them on anything from climate to fitness standards, women, & Black people. In: Anyone accused of toxic behavior, sexual misconduct, etc This is not about readiness, it’s about loyalty to this admin.

Trump’s tariffs, sanctions, and attacks on the rule of law are putting the dollar’s dominance at risk, write Edward Fishman, @gautamjain.bsky.social, and @richardmnephew.bsky.social. “The true result of a declining dollar will be the demise of the very economic power Trump is attempting to wield.”

Americans flocked to Xiaohongshu (RedNote) in January due to the TikTok ban. But what's the difference between Xiaohongshu, TikTok, & Douyin? What narratives proliferate on it? What are tradeoffs between propaganda wins & information control for the CCP? Ryan DeVries & I explain: shorturl.at/UjRJE

This is an important element of the ongoing crackdown on the government career workforce: Beyond the direct and immediate negative impact on the lives of our Service members and their families, there are recruitment and retention implications here that shouldn’t be overlooked.

For my 1st piece since leaving government, I partnered w/ @richardmnephew.bsky.social on a piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We take stock of where we are on Iran, and where we should go, including steps to prevent a nuke & reconstitution of the proxy network. warontherocks.com/2025/02/trum...

I have no love lost for John Bolton and Mike Pompeo—whose attacks against me for 4 years have been relentless. But revoking their security detail is a mistake: It puts them at risk, and sends the wrong message to Iran and increasingly other bad actors targeting Americans on U.S. soil.

The Schedule F implementation guidance from OPM is (in addition to illegal) astonishingly reckless in its breadth and its utter disregard for the role of govt in health, safety and security.