On this week's Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with @lapatina.bsky.social, @tylermcbrien.com, and @atabatabai.bsky.social to discuss the week's national security news including Russia's ground offensive in Ukraine, a potential U.S.-Iran deal, and more. youtu.be/ttav_hw9PCs

Iran doesn’t need to win the war. It just needs to survive it. Ariane Tabatabai and Madison Rinder explain how Iran’s asymmetric doctrine is holding up—and what a post war Iran builds toward, including (possibly) a nuclear weapon. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/will...

Just so we’re clear, the contours of the deal with Iran, as currently outlined in the press, suggest a “more-for-less deal” that has the U.S. giving a lot for not much in return. If a Democratic admin pursued such a deal, its members would get dragged through the street of Washington.

@atabatabai.bsky.social and I examine how Ukraine-Gulf counter-drone cooperation may be the first visible node in a new network emerging among U.S. partners-one Washington didn't design and doesn't yet know how to engage. The U.S. should figure out how to be a proactive participant in that network.

"Rather than fragmenting the EU and empowering nationalist governments, U.S. interventions have thus far helped further consolidate Europe’s political identity and commitment to greater strategic autonomy vis-a-vis the United States," writes @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social.

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with @nkorpett.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social and Joel Braunold to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including the war with Iran, the U.S.-European transatlantic relationship, and more. youtu.be/XOS-Kxz0K-Y

Iran has the ability to quickly rebuild at least parts of its military when the war ends, the Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social tells @theguardian.com: “Their whole military doctrine is based on building and deploying capabilities that they can acquire and maintain and use on the cheap.”

With distrust deepening, can the United States and Iran reach a deal? The Council's @atabatabai.bsky.social weighs in on how much progress the Trump administration has made toward achieving its objectives and how the war with Iran is likely to end. bit.ly/4w3mtzA

@elisaewers44.bsky.social & I have a new essay on how the Iran war tested U.S. policy assumptions: While some held up, others broke down. U.S. planning did not fail. The administration ignored it. As policymakers look to the day after, those assumptions need a hard reset.

The Council is excited to welcome two new members to our team. @kuorum.bsky.social will join the Council as Vice President of Research, Geostrategy and Diplomacy, and @atabatabai.bsky.social will join us as Vice President of Research, Security and Defense. bit.ly/4mlvO0X

On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social talked to John Ghazvinian about his book “America and Iran: A History, 1720 to the Present." They discuss the key events that have shaped the relationship between the two countries and their perceptions of one another. youtu.be/9vN_JMwUdwY

Tomorrow will be my last day as a Public Service Fellow at @lawfaremedia.org. Over the past six months I covered everything from Venezuela and the Iran war to tensions inside NATO (remember Greenland?) and Indo-Pacific issues.

A pattern of U.S. policy swings across administrations in recent decades have altered how allies view U.S. credibility and engagement with NATO. @j-dren.bsky.social and @atabatabai.bsky.social explore how the alliance can function under persistent uncertainty.

On March 2, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his vision for the future of nuclear deterrence in Europe. @atabatabai.bsky.social and @j-dren.bsky.social explore what this plan to decrease Europe's reliance on U.S. extended deterrence means for the transatlantic relationship.

On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social sat down with Elisa Catalano Ewers to talk about Iranian intentions and capabilities, the U.S. response and capability gaps, and how allies and partners, in the Middle East and beyond, are participating. youtu.be/69yKVb9mbJo

Glad to be back on NPR’s Weekend Edition this morning to talk about the status of Iran’s nuclear program. one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5753...

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, @nkorpett.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week’s news in national security including a U.S. strike on what turned out to be an elementary school in southern Iran, and more.

From CISA to the FBI, the national security apparatus has undergone significant firings & slashed budgets under President Trump. Troy Edwards, Bruria Haya Friedman-Feldman, and Vishnu Kannan explain the impact of these actions on the government's ability to prevent Iranian operations on U.S. soil.

If you want deeper context for the headlines about Iran right now, my second book, No Conquest, No Defeat, examines the foundations of Iran’s security thinking & traces the historical roots of its nuclear & missile programs, proxy networks, and hybrid warfare strategy. academic.oup.com/book/33514

Back in 2020, my colleague Elisa Catalano Ewers & I wrote this piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social, where we laid out how Iran was positioning itself then to withstand a closing of the Strait of Hormuz, a tool it’d be prepared to use. warontherocks.com/2020/07/how-...

Time may be on Iran’s side in its conflict with the United States as President Trump faces domestic and international pressure to end the war.

On Lawfare Daily, Fmr Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matt Olsen joined @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org to discuss the terrorist threat from Iran, the shocking lack of preparedness for Iranian malign activity, and the pending lapse of FISA 702. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawf...

On last week's Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with his Lawfare colleagues @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, Daniel Byman, and @atabatabai.bsky.social for an in-depth discussion of the U.S. military operations against Iran. Watch their conversation: youtu.be/j-0aI-nLgIg

Yesterday morning, @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org sat down with @sranderson.bsky.social, @atabatabai.bsky.social, and Troy Edwards to discuss the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran's response, and what may happen next. Watch their discussion: youtube.com/live/mcld4DB...

LIVE NOW: @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, @atabatabai.bsky.social, Troy Edwards, and @sranderson.bsky.social are discussing the U.S. strikes on Iran, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's response, and what may happen. Watch their conversation: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Tomorrow at 9am ET, @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org, @atabatabai.bsky.social, Troy Edwards, and @sranderson.bsky.social will discuss the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran's response, and what may happen next. Subscribe to receive an alert when the live starts:

This is likely the first phase of counterattacks. The first two target-sets (US bases & energy) are part of the usual Iranian playbook, the third less so. As I said on NPR this morning, we should expect a second phase once this one is over, which will play out in the gray zone internationally.

Thanks to @npr.org for having me on Weekend Edition this morning to talk about the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, what we can expect from the Iranian regime, and what’s next. one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5726...

Excited to share “AI Cooperation under the Shadow of China’s Digital Silk Road” tinyurl.com/3jkap6x5 examining how the PRC advances AI ties across the Global South & offers actionable recs for democracies to compete through partner agency, interoperability, sustainable financing,& capacity-building.

On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social and @ebrewer.bsky.social joined @benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org for a discussion of the likelihood of a U.S. strike on Iran, what the objectives would be, the legality of a strike, and more. youtu.be/IfNGVWjglL4

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social sat down with Daniel Byman, @michael-feinberg.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social to talk through some recent big news stories around the world, including Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference, U.S.-Iranian negotiations, and more.

Trump’s attempts to dominate allies come with many costs and few benefits, write @atabatabai.bsky.social and @j-dren.bsky.social.

Today's Lawfare Daily is a panel with @sranderson.bsky.social, Claire Finkelstein, Christopher Maier, Larry Lewis, and Geoffrey Corn on the challenges of civilian harm mitigation in urban warfare environments at a conference hosted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law. youtu.be/bexOMyFLaPg

The Washington Post—for which I wrote editorials for nearly a decade—has closed its Kyiv bureau. @lawfaremedia.org has not—and we will not. We now employ more people in Kyiv than the Washington Post. Let me tell you about what we have done in Ukraine over the past year and why we are not leaving

As Trump resumes negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, we’re learning more about the horrifying scale of the regime's atrocities. We talk about all of that here. PS: Negotiating now w/ the regime is a mistake & emboldens it as it just killed more people than the CCP during Tiananmen.

For this second installment in our @lawfaremedia.org series on Trump's coercive approach to NATO, @j-dren.bsky.social & I look at how Russia views the tensions within the alliance. The acute phase of the Greenland crisis may be over (for now), but Russia will keep benefiting from it.

INBOX: Washington Post Ukraine Correspondent Lizzie Johnson announces that she has been laid off in the middle of a below-freezing war zone without power, heat, or running water.

This is the first in a series of @lawfaremedia.org articles @j-dren.bsky.social and I have coming out that look at the implications of the administration's coercive approach to alliances in general and NATO in particular. Stay tuned:

On Lawfare Daily, @mollyroberts.bsky.social sat down with @atabatabai.bsky.social, and @j-dren.bsky.social to discuss the crisis over President Trump's threats to annex Greenland and its implications for the United States and NATO. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/lawf...

Today's world and domestic politics in the United States are no longer conducive to traditional methods of diplomacy in the context of nuclear nonproliferation. @atabatabai.bsky.social writes that Iran encapsulates this challenge—and provides an opportunity for the creation of a new toolkit.

On Rational Security, @sranderson.bsky.social, @tylermcbrien.com, @michael-feinberg.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social talked through the week’s news in national security including the mass protests in Iran, ICE's increasingly provocative immigration enforcement, and more. youtu.be/vGQTeW9f3bI

Great conversation here with @richardmnephew.bsky.social—although I wish we were talking under different circumstances. Noting that we’re just starting to learn what happened during the internet shutdown with the death toll drastically going up. This round of protests seem different.

The destruction doesn't make for a photo-op like tearing down the East Wing of the White House or bulldozing the Rose Garden, but it's every bit as bad. Generations of American children learned to spell and count, learned the Preamble to the Constitution, from watching shows produced by the CPB.

Coming up at 3 pm ET👇⬇️

A lot happened in 2025–from the deployment of National Guard in cities across the country to airstrikes in the Caribbean to DOGE's incursion into executive agencies to the weaponization of the Justice Department—and we covered it all. Lawfare contributors reflect back on the year that was:

On Lawfare Daily, @atabatabai.bsky.social, @sranderson.bsky.social, and Loren Voss discuss the NDAA for 2026, its key provisions, and what it says for how Congress is reasserting itself vis-a-vis the Trump administration on matters related to the national defense. youtu.be/1Iy2a26r31k

Lawfare Public Service Fellow Ariane Tabatabai reflects on what occurred in U.S. foreign policy in 2025 in Lawfare's The Year that Was. youtu.be/e_kgbelGiMI

This year, multiple former national security officials–including James Pearce, @michael-feinberg.bsky.social, and @atabatabai.bsky.social–joined Lawfare through our Public Service Fellowship. The fellowship is made possible by the generosity of our supporters.

On today's Lawfare Daily, Lawfare contributors look back on the national security news events of the year and their coverage of it. In this episode, you’ll hear from @nkorpett.bsky.social, @annabower.bsky.social, @rparloff.bsky.social, @mollyroberts.bsky.social,

Even absent an order to “kill everybody,” @sranderson.bsky.social and @nkorpett.bsky.social write that the Trump administration’s second Sept. 2 airstrike on alleged drug smugglers in the Caribbean—like its broader military campaign—raise serious legal concerns that demand further scrutiny.