Told Francois Murphy that "a strike by the United States could probably cause more damage than an Israeli strike, but in either case you're talking about buying time and there's a real risk that it drives Iran toward rather than away from a bomb.” www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Lots of focus on what the U.S. end goal should be as part of nuclear talks with Iran. Fair. But Witkoff needs to staff up, and fast. These talks are highly technical and he’s going to need both nuclear and sanctions experts. Doing otherwise is courting disaster.

Sec Wright: “We’ve not reached the details on an agreement, but it certainly looks like there is a pathway to do that…The issue is control of sensitive technology. Are there solutions to that that involve enrichment here in Saudi Arabia? Yes.” www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/w...

“You can remove centrifuges, but you can't remove that knowledge... Even if you remove those machines and dilute and cap the material, Iran is starting from a much more advanced place today than it was in 2015," says NTI's @ebrewer.bsky.social ⤵️

Quoted: “There is growing doubt among allies and partners about whether the United States will meet its defense commitments when the chips are down…But there are a lot of other systemic factors driving countries to talk about developing nuclear weapons.” www.politico.com/news/magazin...

As I predicted last week. www.axios.com/2025/04/10/i...

Advisor to the Supreme Leader 👇 The conditions (“continuation of external threats and being in a state of military attack”) are pretty ambiguous and leave a lot of room for flexibility, as do the threatened consequences.

Sanctioning Iranian entities involved in enrichment ahead of U.S.-Iran talks certainly seems like a signal to Tehran that Washington has no intention of accepting that enrichment program under any agreement. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

Far more important than whether US-Iran talks are direct or indirect is how the Trump admin approaches these first meetings. Does it frame its goal as making sure Iran can’t produce a nuclear weapon? Or that Iran needs to dismantle its entire nuclear infrastructure? 1/

Tensions between Iran and the US are heating up. The US is flowing more forces into the region as both sides exchange threats. Direct talks appear unlikely for now, and time for a deal is short. How might Khamenei manage what is likely to be a perilous ~6 months? I see four options. 1/

Excited to see this panel at Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Conference - “Back to the Future? Nuclear Proliferation Risks in an Era of Uncertainty,” featuring the 3 co-chairs (and 1 member) of the NTI-CEIP-Belfer Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation and US Nat Sec. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...

Quite the line here in the Annual Threat Assessment: “Iranian leaders recognize the country is at one of its most fragile points since the Iran-Iraq War”

Although largely overshadowed by the Signal debacle in today’s hearing, the IC’s Annual Threat Assessment is worth reading. Interesting info in particular on Iran’s strategic situation in the region, Russia/Ukraine, and Russia-Iran-China-DPRK collab. www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...

I think the seemingly different takes by Waltz and Witkoff over the goals of U.S. Iran policy stem at least in part from the fact that Trump himself has been inconsistent on this issue. www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/mik...

Pleased to share my thoughts with Patrick Tucker for his piece on the growing risk of proliferation by U.S. allies, including some of the challenges and risks they would face in actually developing nuclear weapons. www.defenseone.com/threats/2025...

With the U.S. tilt toward Russia (and away from Europe) and reports of Russia acting as an intermediary between the U.S. and Iran, what are the implications for nuclear talks and a new deal with Tehran? A few thoughts. 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Poland’s PM calls for the development of nuclear weapons.

Via Ulrich Kühn.

"Developing nuclear weapons to counter North Korea is not 'off the table' for South Korea, foreign minister Cho Tae-yul stated on Wednesday"

Lots to digest here, but let’s not overlook that it’s now late Feb and there’s been no conversation between IAEA DG Grossi and the Trump admin. With Iran’s program growing and major decisions looming, U.S. needs to get its house in order on Iran policy. And fast. www.wsj.com/world/middle...

“These officials wrote that they ‘will not use our skills as technologists to compromise core government systems, jeopardize Americans' sensitive data, or dismantle critical public services.’” www.cbsnews.com/news/doge-st...

This isn’t about accountability. It’s a campaign of harassment—carried out by an unelected and unappointed individual— designed to demoralize the federal workforce and drive people to quit.

Dmitry Medvedev, the former President of Russia and the Deputy Chair of the Security Council, on President Trump’s post about Ukraine and Zelenskyy this morning.

Good men & women in EUCOM are—as they've done every month since Feb 2022—actively helping track & repel this aerial assault. Meanwhile their commander-in-chief at home is actively attacking Ukraine's president, while handing concession after concession to the state firing the missiles.

The common thread here is that you if you don't like what Trump is doing, don't just complain and wait. Take action now to regain the initiative -- and inspire others to do the same!

Our European allies can act, too. The most powerful step they can take is to actually seize the $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets they've frozen before Trump tries to surrender them. That would immediately give Europe leverage in negotiations. 7/

If pro-Ukraine Republicans are too chicken to legislate, they can still speak out -- tell the administration now your minimum conditions for a just deal, from real security guarantees for Ukraine, to no permanent bar on NATO membership, to the return of kidnapped kids. 6/

Remember that in the House, Democrats have the leverage to make some of these things happen alone. If Republicans need their help to pass that next gov't funding bill, they should also insist that all appropriated funds (including for Ukraine) be spent as Congress directs. 5/

While you're at it, bar any financial arrangement for the exploitation of Ukraine's natural resources, or for any joint investment in oil, gas, or minerals with Russia, without it being submitted to Congress for approval. 4/

Put a provision in the next gov't funding bill that prohibits spending funds to withdraw US troops from Poland & the Baltic States unless Russia is no longer a threat. Congress passed a version of this to stop first term Trump from withdrawing troops from Korea. 3/

In 2017, Congress passed & Trump signed a law that says if the president wants to lift Russia sanctions or return embassy property, he must seek Congressional approval. Make clear now that you'll vote to block approval if Trump's "deal" betrays our values and allies. congress.gov/bill/115th-c... 2/

“The U.S. assessment found that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best set back its activities by months, and potentially only by weeks, said current and former officials.” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Those familiar with the history of nuclear proliferation will know that scientists engaging in “unauthorized” work is not uncommon and the line between what is allowed and what is not, and what requires approval can often be blurry. And hedging strategies often operate in these grey areas.

Seems like the possibility that Iranian scientists are carrying out nuclear weapons work without political approval should be getting more attention: “Some units in Iran’s programme are thought to be conducting research without telling policymakers.” www.economist.com/middle-east-...

This is the same guy who wanted nukes really bad

For my 1st piece since leaving government, I partnered w/ @richardmnephew.bsky.social on a piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We take stock of where we are on Iran, and where we should go, including steps to prevent a nuke & reconstitution of the proxy network. warontherocks.com/2025/02/trum...

If Iran decides it needs nuclear weapons, it still faces a rather lengthy window of vulnerability in trying to get there. Looks like Iranian scientists are trying to shrink that window which, in turn, could lessen the risks of such a decision to weaponize. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/u...

I think a lot of people make the mistake of assuming civil servants dislike and therefore will work to oppose a particular policy/approach/decision. Sure. But what they are *really* allergic to is bad/non-existent process. 1/

The most worrisome part of the DOGE takeover of federal agencies is that the headlines probably only capture a fraction of what is actually taking place.

Declassification by thuggery. “A group of about eight DOGE officials entered the USAID building Saturday and demanded access to every door and floor, despite only a few of them having security clearance, according to a Senate Democratic staff member” www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Lots of speculation (and advocacy) earlier that Trump would use tariffs on China as part of a new “max pressure” strategy to force an end to Beijing’s purchases of Iranian oil. No sign of that here. www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

Are there any articles out there that examine the legal/statutory basis by which DOGE is asking for these and other accesses? Even if a gov org, you don’t just get to waltz in and assert whatever prerogative you’d like. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/u...

NEWS Aides to Elon Musk charged with running the U.S. government human resources agency have locked career civil servants out of computer systems that contain the personal data of millions of federal employees

Repairing the damage and healing the wounds of January 6th would have required unequivocal and consistent condemnation by elected officials, holding those involved accountable, and society rejecting those who support or sympathize with 1/6. We’ve sadly and worryingly chosen the opposite.

Defenders of Trump’s Iran policy have long argued that Iran’s nuclear program accelerated more under Biden than Trump because Iran was deterred (ie, scared about the US response) under the latter but not the former. We’re about to test that theory. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

“Since October, when the Biden administration started cracking down on Iran-linked tankers, their crude deliveries to China, which buys nearly all of Iran’s oil, have shrunk by a quarter, to 1.3m barrels per day (b/d)” apple.news/AqYFM-RpgQHe...

Important comments from DNI Haines here about how greater Russia/China/Iran/DPRK alignment is making nonproliferation much harder, and that the prior US cooperation with Russia and China on this front has broken down.

Worth recalling how little we know about Syria’s former nuclear weapons effort. Whoever rules Syria next stands to inherit whatever documents the Assad regime retained (and let’s hope that’s all it is) assuming they haven’t been/won’t be destroyed.

Some really interesting new details in the latest unclassified DNI report on Iran’s nuclear program. Will do a thread tomorrow. www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...

This seems like more than just “brainstorming.”