Hong Kong pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 20 years in jail following his conviction on foreign collusion and sedition charges. hongkongfp.com/2026/02/09/bre...

A site tracking recent purges in the PLA vs purges at the Trump-Hegseth Pentagon purge-comparison.vercel.app

Recommended for anyone trying to wrap their heads around what just happed in Japan.

Japan: So...article 5? That's still a thing right? Just say "the US is committed to defending Japan." You will, right? Can you say it? US:

"Solutions should be able to detect, track and support engagement with intercontinental ballistic missiles or hypersonic glide vehicles during multiple flight phases"

ICYMI

USA nuclear weapons testing talk continues! threading my posts. You can enable my work: paypal.me/nuclearanthro patreon.com/nuclearanthro 1st (free to all) is 30 Oct 2025 after Trump made his confusing (& still unclarified) comments about USA resuming nuclear testing: #PhDLife 1/n

STRATCOM commander mentions national labs as one of five threat factors www.exchangemonitor.com/stratcom-com...

Good thing we're not using Bitcoin to pay for Golden Dome.

Probably the most positive indicators in a while on the extended deterrence front. (Strategic documents don't matter.)

I'm back on Substack with reflections on today's very interesting reveal of what appear to have been previously classified U.S. intelligence conclusions about alleged Chinese nuclear-testing activity at Lop Nur panda.substack.com/p/china-us-i...

Response from @ctbto.bsky.social today: www.ctbto.org/resources/fo...

Today, the last remaining nuclear treaty between Russia and the U.S. expired. What does that actually mean – and what could be next? @nktpnd.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/RxUMr...

“Ukraine's military said on Thursday it had carried out a series of "successful" strikes in January on a launch site for Russian intermediate-range ballistic missiles.” www.reuters.com/world/europe...

On New START, there is precedent re legally nonbinding statements of compliance. Reagan on the unratified SALT II, May '82: "As for existing strategic arms agreements, we will refrain from actions which undercut them so long as the Soviet Union shows equal restraint." share.google/wIgYPIgnLatb...

"The U.S. and Russia are closing in on a deal to continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty beyond its expiration on Thursday"

New START, the last remaining U.S.-Russia treaty codifying limits on the size of their nuclear arsenals, expires at 23:59:59 CET today (17:59:59 EST).

"I find that the US slide during Trump’s second term stands out as the most rapid in contemporary history. It outpaces the early stages of backsliding under Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán..." www.ft.com/content/b474...

Some of the recently declassified images of the NRO's Cold War-era JUMPSEAT HEO signals intelligence satellite program. lnkd.in/eGym2xBj

UPDATED: The Department of Energy has responded to our exclusive story on nuclear safety rules. It says it anticipates making the rules public "later this year." www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...

EXCLSUVIE: The Trump administration has secretly rewritten nuclear safety rules and shared them with the companies they're meant to regulate, without making the new rules publicly available. We've obtained a copy of the new rules and here's what we found. www.npr.org/2026/01/28/n...

Stochastic political violence on the rise.

This picture is actually quite concerning. In 2009-2010, the young KJU established his command bona fides by directing military action against South Korea. KJA appears to be getting set up for possibly a similar demonstration. Difficult to deter action that's motivated by internal regime dynamics.

Quite the growth spurt for Kim Ju Ae.

Interesting: "Sweden has had very early discussions with France and the United Kingdom about possible nuclear weapons cooperation, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has revealed." breakingdefense.com/2026/01/swed...

"“Unfortunately because of the intel threat, we can only brief you at the classified level on what the architecture is,” Guetlein said." So the Pentagon can release unclassified document after document about the threat to our space assets but when it comes to GD, they go silent?

"Greenland should be treated as a precedent, not an aberration. The immediate threat has receded, but the underlying reality remains: Europe is dealing with an ally willing to test boundaries, probe weakness, and turn dependence into leverage." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Here @joshuakeating.bsky.social points out that, as of January 14, 2026, we've entered the longest period since July 16, 1945, without a full-scale nuclear test explosion (exceeding the time between the 1998 Pakistani test and North Korea's first test in 2006) www.vox.com/future-perfe...

U.S. government has lost more than 10,000 STEM Ph.D.s since Trump took office www.science.org/content/arti...

"My hope – for the sake of stable US-China military-to-military relations and cross-Strait stability - was that Zhang Youxia would stay at the top of the CMC and remain Xi Jinping’s closest military advisor." chinadrew.substack.com/p/the-demise...

"Germany’s plans to pour money into the sector will make it the third-biggest spender worldwide on space technology after the US and China"

Rheinmetall and OHB in talks over Starlink-style service for German army www.ft.com/content/3e81...

Donald Trump increases tariffs on South Korea to 25% www.ft.com/content/9982...

What else would anyone expect Rutte, of all people, to say?

"We don't want to commit significant conventional resources to defending you, but will still go nuclear on your behalf" doesn't sound very credible on its face?

I think this is right. Some allies (esp. in Europe) over-indexed on the mention of "conventional security" in Hegseth's speech to the Ukraine Contact Group in Brussels last February.

"The emerging global system is one in which three nuclear-armed leaders, insulated from dissent, pursue risky gambits. The result will not be the relatively stable if tense competition that characterized the Cold War. It will be something more volatile..." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Guetlein bleeding credibility here: “By the summer of ‘28 we will be able to defend the entire nation against ballistic missiles as well as other generation aerial threats...” spacenews.com/golden-dome-...

Read @nktpnd.bsky.social's analysis of the US National Defense Strategy and extended deterrence. Not a lot to say, which is probably bad for allies who rely on US nuclear forces for their security.

Very much wondering if we'll see talk of "tous azimuts" again.

Thoughts on the (very limited) nuclear bits of the 2026 US National Defense Strategy panda.substack.com/p/a-note-on-...

As shocking as the terms of US exit from the international community have been, the terms on which the US will re-enter the system (someday) will be even more shocking to a leadership class accustomed to being the leaders of the world

Friday night NDS drop.

I'm sorry, but I find this hard to pin on OpenAI entirely. Assume that data that is not on physical storage devices in your control is basically not in your possession at all (this includes email) www.nature.com/articles/d41...

You don't gently land the Hindenberg.

This finding surprised me: 47% of Americans say China is already more powerful than the United States or will be within 5 years. Only one-quarter think China will never overtake the United States.

eyes have been wide open for a long time, but the difference is now they are saying it to reporters in a reportable way