NEW: Hours before a new entry ban is supposed to go into effect, the federal government officially acknowledges for the first time that the restrictions do NOT apply to people who currently have H-1B visas. Link: www.uscis.gov/sites/defaul...

Not just a crisis for journalism but for civil-military relations: can't have civilian oversight if you don't have a free press (especially with this Pentagon).

Ah. I see. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

RIP U.S. innovation. Between gutting the H-1B program, purging US scientists from civil service, slashing research grants, and disappearing international students off the streets, our government has made a conscious decision to kill America's roll as a global leader in science and innovation.

I have a new article out in the Journal of Democracy comparing mass protests and government collapse in 2025 Nepal, 2024 Bangladesh, and 2022 Sri Lanka: www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclu...

NATO has declassified some fascinating documents: below, from the Provisional Political Guidelines for the Tactical Use of Nuclear Weapons by NATO (Nov. 1969). archives.nato.int/uploads/r/na...

My early thoughts on the new Pakistan-Saudi Arabia defense pact: panda.substack.com/p/did-pakist...

Intriguing step here by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan: "The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both." www.spa.gov.sa/en/w2399706

I joined @nktpnd.bsky.social on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast “Thinking the Unthinkable” to talk about my new book: The Art of Coercion. And here’s the book (the ebook is free!): www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Recent college & grad school alumni: Work for 6 to 9 months with one of over 2 dozen NGOs in DC on international peace & security issues, including nuclear arms control, peacebuilding, & diplomacy. Apply by Oct. 20 to @scovillepf.bsky.social for the spring '26 semester. scoville.org

Daejeon.

Beautiful day at the inter-Korean Joint Security Area.

He notes this is the first time a sitting minister of defense from Japan has given an address in Korea.

Japanese Defense Minister Nakatani Gen addresses the 2025 Seoul Defense Dialogue. Opens with a strong emphasis on ROK-Japan defense ties.

"Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and his South Korean counterpart, Ahn Gyu Back, agreed Monday in Seoul to bolster communication through reciprocal visits" english.kyodonews.net/articles/-/6...

North Korea publicizes a test of the massive new solid propellant engine Kim inspected recently (it has seen previous static testing) www.nknews.org?p=960774

Teodoro, focusing on nuclear dynamics in Asia, calls on China to take steps to reduce its nuclear stockpile and maintain strategic stability. (No mention of Russia, US, DPRK, India, or Pakistan.)

Seoul Defense Dialogue 2025 kicks off. Philippines Secretary of National Defense Teodoro, speaking first, warns against implying smaller states don't have agency amid great power competitive dynamics.

"South Korea protested the action to the U.S. and said it was trying to secure the release of its citizens." www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...

This is truly incredible, especially when Trump and team were reluctant to understand Kim's thinking going into the 2019 Hanoi summit from *public* sources at them (including what he'd been saying in the months going in). Don't need a special listening device. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...

"One of the first large sales that may come after the reinterpretation may be to Saudi Arabia." www.reuters.com/business/aer...

TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday: 🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM?? 🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader? ✈️ air-launched ballistic missile? 🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:

US Typhon missile system to temporarily deploy to Japan as part of exercise www.reuters.com/business/aer...

At this week's military parade, China showed off land, sea, and air-base nuclear capabilities for the first time. What's so significant about these weapons and China's choice to display them so prominently? @nktpnd.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/mj8S2...

It's insane that TPP has become an alternative to US bullying, when it was designed as a US-sponsored alternative to Chinese bullying, until Trump abruptly decided to quit. Not renegotiate, just quit. asia.nikkei.com/economy/trad...

Hot take: probably good for the leaders with de facto unitary nuclear launch authority to want to live forever (also, thank god for telomeres) www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...

I’m still very slightly annoyed that China is calling the dual-capable ALBM the JL-1. (Yeah, yeah, I get why.)

"There's no sacrosanct reason that nuclear delivery systems distributed across land, air, and sea are essential for deterrence" www.businessinsider.com/china-showed...

I spoke to the @nytimes.com about what caught my eye at China’s major military parade yesterday www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Tong Zhao, an expert on China's nuclear forces, writes for The Economist. "In Asia, if China insists on rejecting American extended deterrence, it should articulate what alternative security arrangements it is willing to offer" www.economist.com/by-invitatio...

DF-5C first stages.

Did I see a DF-18J?? (Watching on my phone.)

Kim Jong Un has never before participated in an international event with this many world leaders present. Big moment for North Korea.

Putin, Xi, and Kim. The whole gang's together.

When you finally have smaller warheads but aren't sure you trust the newer missiles completely

井 for the 'J', implying a silo loader.

First Hwasong-20 and now DF-61. Big week for big new Asian ICBMs.

DF-61!

Definitely a lost battle under this admin, but if we do eventually return to normalcy, would really appreciate a hard requirement that every announced use of force by the state be accompanied by stating the authority under which it occured

The 2002 AUMF.

Single-shot bolts-out-of-the-blue are having a moment, huh variety.com/2025/film/re...

Hwasong-20 just might make me start posting again. (Was going to return tomorrow, anyway.)

What I've been up to lately.

Snark ICCM on Ulaanbaatar.

RIP www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAE...

I explained nuclear deterrence to YouTuber Johnny Harris for his video explainer on nuclear weapons. Check it out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U51...

"While permanently stationing French warheads in Germany isn’t ruled out, it isn’t likely, at least in the short run." www.wsj.com/world/europe...

If this is anything like what's in it, Ishiba is so done.

First gig I ever played (at 14) was a cover of N.I.B by Black Sabbath. RIP.