Nope, not how this works www.wsj.com/world/middle...

F-15 WSO recovered alive. Was escaping and evading. Massive fire fight on tgt. Iranians were actively looking for him in the area.

JA-gotta-be-SSMe www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

@dexeve.bsky.social & I have a new piece out in Survival. In 2024, South Korea secretly deployed more than 300 KTSSM missiles at soft, fixed sites--suggesting that, in a crisis, Seoul may strike first & giving Pyongyang 300 reasons to beat them to it. doi.org/10.1080/0039...

Feels like an awkward detail here that the US has also not ratified the Law of the Sea. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/w...

A deliberate, symbolic strike on civilian infrastructure with no case for military utility. As clear cut as LOAC violations come.

The global wave of energy rationing - good piece on the contagion from the war www.ft.com/content/a9f5...

Europe should hope Purl lives but should act as if it is already dead. Just almost impossible to see Trump administration allow weapons to continue to flow to Ukraine that are needed to restock US supplies, as well as Israel/Gulf. www.csis.org/analysis/eur...

We also have a write-up online. Absent debris from an Iranian drone, it looks very much like a Patriot misfire. If it was deliberate, the intercept attempt looks rather irresponsible and out of character with what we know about how CENTCOM operates. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...

Well, you may care about it soon enough, buddy. ‘I Don’t Care About That’: Trump Says Iran’s Enriched Uranium Is Not a Concern www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/u...

Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined Hormuz coalition www.ft.com/content/d304...

Thanks to the Atlantic Council for publishing my take on considerations for US nuclear force posture, modernization, and arms control in the face of a more competitive strategic environment. And be sure to read the other excellent contributions to the Council's great nuclear debates series.

Japan has for the first time deployed its homegrown longer-range missiles and new hyper velocity gliding projectiles (HVGP) to military bases as the country’s “counterstrike capability” begins to take shape. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/03...

Two stories published in the last day: The Iran war will provoke a new nuclear age - New Statesman www.newstatesman.com/internationa... The War With Iran May Be Ushering in a New Nuclear Age - Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Here's why I believe Iran could have transferred to Isfahan up to 540 kilograms—possibly all—of its highly-enriched uranium inventory before the June strikes last year. 👇 #Iran #nuclearweapons #uranium #OSINT #nukesky

"The War With Iran May Be Ushering in a New Nuclear Age"

New information on containers.

Of course, they're weighing the option, but it's a very bad one www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

The decapitation dilemma: "...nothing seems more neo-royalist than seeing war through the prism of the physical destruction of a rival leader." www.ft.com/content/36b4...

"The findings present a portrait of a young man who held strong conservative convictions and desired to put them into action — and who ultimately found himself at the center of inter-Korean controversy." www.nknews.org/2026/03/cros...

New undated photo from North Korea released today. Kim Jong Un observed what they claim is a new 2500 kN solid-fuel first-stage engine for a large ICBM.

"Our model assesses 14 scenarios in all. It finds that Hormuz is exceptional in one sense: no other single disruption has the potential to outright block (rather than reroute) so much trade" www.economist.com/interactive/...

Four weeks before 2026 #NPTRevCon is set to begin: "A lawmaker said a fast-tracked bill proposing Iran’s exit from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and a shift in nuclear policy has been submitted to parliament’s legislative body." www.iranintl.com/en/202603281...

"the Navy has a plan to do maintenance on existing Ohio-class submarines to extend their service life. And there's high confidence in the ability to extend their service life, so that we can...bridge to the Columbia-class and the new capability."

I agree with this take. Expected war things happen in war.

Flying to Korea via Europe tonight for... reasons.

Weapons and friendship: How Lukashenko’s trip to North Korea echoed Putin’s www.nknews.org/2026/03/weap...

Gosh, it turns out that expertise could have averted this self-made disaster. foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/25/i...

Only 23% of government workers believe they “can report a suspected violation of a law, rule, or regulation without experiencing retaliation.” That's way down form the share the prior year (72%) who said they could report suspected illegal activity without fear www.thebulwark.com/p/two-more-g...

"The United States does not have a Department of War and does not have a secretary ofwar. Every time any Americans use those titles, they make it easier for the president to issue illegal orders." foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/25/l...

For the last few months, I've been pleased to be a small part of a new @nbr.org project examining the foreign policy consequences of generational change in South & Southeast Asia. The first 2 essays by Bashir Ali Abbas & @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social are out now on India. www.nbr.org/program/trac...

"...the cascading effects of the conflict on fertilizer supplies are growing worse by the day, raising prices for farmers globally and threatening to lead to food insecurity in some parts of the world." www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/b...

"The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal" www.reuters.com/world/middle...

“too much American strategic thinking is entrapped by the seductive belief that if the opening barrage is violent enough, the enemy’s coherence will unravel on schedule. Iran has spent decades developing the ability to deny that outcome.”

A morale-lifting statement from the commander-in-chief if you’re in the 82nd Airborne.

Canada for many reasons, but especially the quirks of the NORAD agreement, which, inter alia, allows the Canadian PM to order the use of US fighter aircraft in Canada's defense. (Trudeau did this in Feb. 2023.) Very unique arrangement.

Applications close tomorrow, but if you’re a grad student or young professional interested in North Korea, this is a great program (by NCNK): ncnk.org/news/accepti...

Really irresponsible headline here from the Washington Times, contradicted by the story’s text: "Mr. DiNanno said assessments are being undertaken on resuming the tests but that no decision has yet been made to move ahead." www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/ma...

‘The Pentagon is considering whether to divert weapons intended for Ukraine to the Middle East as the war in Iran depletes some of the U.S. military’s most critical munitions, according to three people familiar with the matter.’ www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Obviously bad, but added wrinkle is this creates Iranian rationales to deliberately target civilian facilities (hotels and office spaces) to seek putative military benefit.

"Iran has bombed U.S. bases across the Middle East in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli war, forcing many American troops to relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout the region" www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/u...

Second-order consequences are happening: "The U.S. Postal Service will impose an 8% surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel, according to two people familiar with the matter." www.wsj.com/us-news/post...

My "I’ve already won the war with Iran" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt.

Have they tried an executive order stating “the enemy does not get a vote. Thank you for your attention to this matter"?