"Polling commissioned by The Economist...shows that 20% of liberals think political violence can be justified [v] 7% of conservatives & moderates...Liberals of all ages are more likely to condone political violence but those under 40 are especially likely" www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

‘Asked whether Pakistan would be obliged to provide Saudi Arabia with a nuclear umbrella under the pact, the official said: “This is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means.”’ www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...

"Mr Trump has diverted 28,000 federal law-enforcement personnel—including one in five FBI agents—to do the work of ICE." www.economist.com/united-state...

President Trump warns an Australian reporter that he’s hurting Australia because he asked him about his business activity: You are hurting Australia very much right now. They want to get along with me. Your leader is coming to see me soon, I'm going to tell him about you.

"The Trump administration has ordered the removal of signs and exhibits related to slavery at multiple national parks, according to four people familiar with the matter, including a historic photograph of a formerly enslaved man showing scars on his back." www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Wow. UK drops charges against two men, including a former Parliamentary researcher, accused of spying for China. ‘Prosecutor Tom Little told the court … "we simply cannot continue to prosecute this case".’ www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

How does NATO monitor and defend its airspace? It operates a large, diverse & growing network of sensors & interceptors on air, sea and land—but also one with significant limitations when it comes to countering low-level drone incursions in peacetime. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

Replied elsewhere but please note our situation is different from Poland. Russian drones routinely cross RO territory at the Danube delta on their way to hit Izmail The issue is as I geromanned below, that there is basically 0 roads east of Tulcea

Romania detects another Russian drone incursion. “at 18.23, F 16 aircraft detected a drone in national airspace, which they tracked until approximately 20 km SW of Chilia Veche, when it disappeared from the radar…a Russian drone crashed in Chilia” adevarul.ro/stiri-intern...

“The Mossad spy agency refused to carry out a planned ground operation to kill Hamas’s leaders in Doha, fearing that the operation would doom hostage-ceasefire talks and damage the agency’s ties with Qatar” www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-said-...

This is how you drive talented people out of the force.

‘No large Russian troop presence observed in Belarus for Zapad-2025 exercises, says the Ukrainian Border Guard’ www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4...

"According to WELT [...] five drones were on a direct flight path toward a NATO base before being intercepted by Dutch Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets. www.politico.eu/article/russ...

Last week in Tokyo I spoke to the new head of the Royal Navy in what what was his first interview. We talked about his plans for a “hybrid” air wing, why he is accelerating the process of putting drones on carriers & how strike groups might evolve. www.economist.com/internationa...

This would suggest that this was a deliberate Russian intrusion into NATO airspace, while not intended as an intentional attack. Which of course doesn’t mean that it should be treated as harmless or trivial.

Ahead of the IDF’s evacuation order for all of Gaza City, the Military Advocate General—the top IDF lawyer—advised Chief of Staff Gen. Zamir that the order would not be legal without further humanitarian preparation. Zamir cut the MAG out of subsequent discussions of the order and issued it anyway.

"It’s not 2008 anymore, and any reassessment of USFK must start by accounting for the dramatic changes since the 28,500 troop number was pledged. Though the threat on the Korean Peninsula...has grown considerably, so has South Korea’s ability to defend itself" www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

1/ Poland has invoked NATO's Article Four, which triggers consultations among allies. It is highly unlikely this will be taken as an "armed attack" meeting the threshold of Article Five. So the question is what NATO does after these consultation. Some ideas below.

Poland formally asks for Article Four consultations. “Tusk later announced that the consultations with the allies had already taken on the form of a formal request to launch art. 4 NATO. - This is our joint recommendation - the head of gov’t pointed out.” www.fakt.pl/polityka/ros...

'Labeling a drug cartel a terrorist organization and killing 11 members on a vessel, which may or may not have been destined for the US, under guise of an amorphous “national interest” is an extraordinary and unprecedented assertion of presidential power.' www.justsecurity.org/119985/label...

Katz: “If Hamas terrorists do not lay down their arms and free all the hostages, they will be destroyed and Gaza will be razed" www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-isr...

Our story on Hamas in July. "Of the 15-strong politburo in Gaza, once the movement’s driving force, most are dead...Gone are the monthly stipends of $30m and $15m the group used to get from Qatar and Iran respectively (in Qatar’s case via Israel)." www.economist.com/middle-east-...

Oh. “The events at Heathrow Airport are a "mass hysteria" type event, a source at the Met Police tells the BBC, with no hazardous material found.” www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5...

"Ferrari" F-35 vs. all-new sixth-gen F-47. 'If F-47 is to cost some $300 million per copy—an estimate offered by former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall—Taiclet’s “Ferrari” version of the F-35 could be had for perhaps $150 million per copy.' www.airandspaceforces.com/what-might-t...

'Europe now boasts three defence start-ups with a “unicorn” valuation of more than €1bn: drone makers Helsing, Quantum Systems and Tekever.' www.ft.com/content/a194...

“If you look back nine months ago...everybody was really afraid, especially about our relations with the United States,” said António Costa, president of the EU Council. “Over the last nine months, we managed to stabilise the transatlantic relations.” www.ft.com/content/17d0...

Thanks to an FOI by Joseph Lloyd, the British Army has published the report by Prof Tony King on women in the army. "The British Army needs to re-code itself from a masculine institution into a hyper-professional force. It needs to recode itself military." www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/repo...

"According to Novaya Gazeta, the independent Russian newspaper, there have been 56 deaths of successful businesspeople and officials under strange circumstances since February 2022. Many of them have fallen out of windows." www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/russi...

A balanced assessment of Russia's economy. "Full year real GDP growth forecasts are being revised down to less than 1% for 2025, but inflation expectations remain elevated...there is no end in sight for the current stagflationary macro situation." www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/fort...

Czech chief of general staff: ". Always the problem is bureaucracy and our own...mental blocks...if the Ukrainians had the same security policies we have...for sharing info and [handling] classified info, they would not do most of the innovations they do." www.iiss.org/globalassets...

"More Americans think his mass deportation programme has gone “too far” (49%) than “not far enough” (21%) or “about right” (24%), an Economist/YouGov poll finds. More oppose his sending troops to cities than support it: 46% to 40%" www.economist.com/united-state...

"A National Disinformation Agency could replicate the NCSC model by creating the institutional mechanism to safely declassify and operationalize intelligence about information warfare adversaries and strengthen coordination with Five Eyes & NATO partners" www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

🤷🏽

A good illustration of why the lethality fetish in this administration is performative in nature. There are types of lethality that have genuine utility for fighting and winning some wars. How many vertical launch tubes does your navy have? Then there is whatever this is.

This, and restoring to a place of honor a painting of Robert E. Lee in a confederate uniform (with a black slave holding his horse), from the institution that prides itself on forming leaders on integrity. Shame, West Point.

Shot, chaser

SCOOP: The Navy has quietly put Anduril, GA, Boeing and Northrop under contract to design new loyal-wingman CCA drones, according to a document obtained by Breaking Defense. breakingdefense.com/2025/09/excl...

“The BBC has confirmed that Yvette Cooper will be appointed foreign secretary” www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0...

Wild story of how Trump ordered a SEAL raid into North Korea in 2019 to plant a listening device. The SEALs killed everyone on a board a boat that they thought had spotted them, sunk the boat & bodies, and aborted. And Congress was told of none of this. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...

Can anyone point me to crowdsourcing/forecasting projects being by governments? I’m familiar with Sweden’s Glimt (www.foi.se/en/foi/resea...) which is in co-operation with Ukraine, but keen to learn about any other efforts under way.

Experts of BlueSky: what are the best recent papers, studies & sources on mercenaries / private security companies, particularly how the field has evolved as business over the last few years? I'm interested in global examples, rather than just Western & Russian ones.

So, sending troops to Chicago or Baltimore would be much more complicated than either LA or DC. 🧵

Tong Zhao, an expert on China's nuclear forces, writes for The Economist. "In Asia, if China insists on rejecting American extended deterrence, it should articulate what alternative security arrangements it is willing to offer" www.economist.com/by-invitatio...

(The most recent US air strikes in Somalia were a pair of them over the weekend, on Aug 30, and the most recent JSOC ground raid in Syria was two weeks ago on Aug 19)

So far during the second Trump administration, this puts the US military at: —1,000+ air strikes in Yemen (in March-April) —65+ air strikes in Somalia —5 air strikes and 2 JSOC ground raids in Syria —1 night of B-2 strikes on 3 sites in Iran —1 air strike in Iraq —1 air strike in the Caribbean

'The ‘C’s’ between 1909 and 2024 fall into two distinct groups; former Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) Chair Sir Percy Cradock talked of ‘sword men’ and ‘gown men’, reflecting the increasing civilianisation of SIS from the 1950s onwards' www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

One weird trick to surviving a war with China. "Building 300 new shelters reduces aggregate losses from about 300 to about 210 aircraft, even assuming that China upgrades its IRBM accuracy." direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

"All counterintelligence analysts are familiar with the discipline’s two fundamental principles: spies generally do not attract attention to themselves, nor are caught through the “vigilance of colleagues.” Other spies catch spies, most likely a defector" www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

A good explanation of why prediction is important to analysis. "Refusing to put numbers on beliefs does not make those beliefs less numerical; it merely makes them unaccountable." cassiai.substack.com/p/everything...

“The Trump administration is drawing up plans to rebrand the Department of Defense as the Department of War…could be done by an act of Congress, but the White House is considering other avenues to make the change, according to the official.” www.wsj.com/politics/nat...