'America’s actions are strangely contradictory. If Venezuela is a terrorist state, why has the United States ended the “temporary protected status” of some 600,000 Venezuelan asylum-seekers and sent some back to the narco-jihadists?' www.economist.com/the-americas...

What the what now. "The United States is preparing to establish a military presence at an airbase in Damascus to help enable a security pact that Washington is brokering between Syria and Israel, six sources familiar with the matter told Reuters." www.reuters.com/world/middle...

I think the really odd thing is believing that you need hyper-expensive and comprehensive missile defenses to guarantee a second strike capability. Are you telling me he believes that in their absence, the US does *not* have such a capability? Hard to believe they really think this.

In confirmation hearing for VADM Correll as new STRATCOM head, part of mission of Golden Dome missile defense is to “guarantee a second strike capability.” A tall order since China’s current nuke buildup is already partly a response to such defenses. www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/to-...

Great debate on "gulf" between academic community that believes in "theory of the nuclear revolution, strategic stability, counter-population or minimum deterrence & US gov't...who saw enduring value in damage limitation strategies or counterforce" strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/debating-d...

We wrote this week on Golden Dome, about which we still know relatively little. What's clear is that cost will be sensitive to the number of space-based interceptors. And that depends on the basic question: what scope of threat is this meant to tackle? www.economist.com/interactive/...

"a more likely scenario is that China gives US firms preferential access to rare earths to pacify Trump while keeping the Europeans on a tightly controlled drip-feed." email.gmfus.org/rv/ff00f8c46...

Dick Cheney, among other things, directed the single largest drawdown of nuclear weapons in US history at the end of the Cold War www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/D...

Looks like extraordinary cowardice. "...following pressure from the Chinese state and a separate defamation law suit against the university, Sheffield Hallam decided not to publish a final piece of research by Prof Murphy and her team into forced labour." www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Great addition to the seaside arcades in Scarborough. I've asked it about Venezuela plans but no luck. They are currently clean on OPSEC.

Hi folks! A few thoughts on this essay, and the questions that we *should* be asking, rather than the ones this Army officer seems inclined to answer. I haven’t done a CMR thread in a while so I’m overdue. 🧵

One thing I recently updated: US supercomputing zoomed past the benchmark established for stockpile stewardship (100 tflops) and also China has too. The Chinese have the computers to design new weapons, but what they don't have is the data from nuclear testing -- yet.

Hard to imagine a more sinister & dangerous argument, couched in euphemism & high-minded language. "This essay does not argue liberalism will collapse, only that [US] military officers should be intellectually (and spiritually) prepared for alternatives." warontherocks.com/2025/10/the-...

Drove past RAF Fylingdales in the beautiful north Yorkshire moors today. Our little corner of future Golden Dome.

"Black service members represent roughly 15 percent to 16 percent of the active-duty force, yet they account for 66 percent of those holding shaving waivers, Military.com reports." www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...

Hell of a thread from my colleague, covering a court appearance by a Trump border official in Chicago. The admin clearly revels in the excessive use of force & will push as far as the courts let them, and perhaps further.

The defence lawyer now speaking for the government sounds absolutely shell-shocked. Voice quavering. Ironically looks like he has been tear-gassed

She has now ordered Bovino to appear personally at the court every day to report back what has happened and to list everyone arrested who is not being arrested for immigration enforcement reasons. This is the most insane court session I've ever been in. Feels like a headteacher bollocking

She now notes an agent pointing a gun at somebody and saying "bang bang you're dead" would, "on the face of it" violate the TRO. Bovino says each situation is different and he would like to know about the specifics

Quite a world when a federal judge has to call in a federal official to specifically tell him he can't use tear gas on children in Halloween costumes

Got to join China Talk last week to talk drone wars and Ukraine w/ @shashj.bsky.social and Rob Lee: open.spotify.com/episode/2c6a...

Absolutely mad that someone like this was responsible for cyber policy in the trump first term.

"The [drug] boats lack the range to reach the United States, typically ferrying product to nearby islands or rendezvous points with larger vessels. Destroying them does not cripple the trade — it barely inconveniences it." warontherocks.com/2025/10/stra...

Striking line in the Atlantic's story on the Venezuela build-up. "The U.S. hasn’t sent this many ships to the Caribbean since the Cuban missile crisis." www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...

"Until the early 2000s Chinese manufacturers were more reliant on inputs from America than American firms were on Chinese inputs. By 2020 that had flipped ... American manufacturers are three times more reliant than Chinese ones on inputs from the other" www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Good & detailed analysis of the US campaign in Venezuela, including the prospect of a war. "The risks of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be downplayed. Many senior military officers could resist regime change." www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

Remarkable developments in the UK China spy case yesterday. What stands out is UK prosecutor saying deputy national security advisor 'would... not accept that China was opposed or hostile to the interests of the United Kingdom at the material time' www.google.com/amp/s/www.bb...

The Leahy law is being killed off. "The US State Department has removed an online portal for reporting alleged human rights violations by foreign military units supplied with American weapons." www.bbc.com/news/article...

As usual for Jack Watling, this is a fabulously data & evidence-rich paper on what the Ukrainian battlefield looks like today. A pivotal role for drones & ground robots—but also for tanks, armour & artillery, each coming into its own at different moments in an assault www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Here's a sample piece of "journalism" from one of the "news" outlets that signed the DoD rules. Welcome to the new press corps.

'Other questions to consider are the return of conscription and increasing France’s number of reservists, the general said. www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Good reminder of urban aspect of war in Ukraine. "If they make it inside the dense, built-up area of a city like Pokrovsk, with high-rise buildings and endless opportunities for cover and concealment, clearing them out becomes an almost impossible task." kyivindependent.com/analysis-pok...

"Lockheed Martin is aiming to conduct an on-orbit demonstration of at least one space-based anti-missile interceptor design no later than 2028" www.twz.com/space/lockhe...

This seems accurate. It's absurd to think killing Maduro amounts to a serious way of tackling narcotics in the region & any serious analyst in the US intel community knows this. What's more important is that the Asia-first crowd are being out-manoeuvred and sidelined on this.

Amy Woolf on future of US-Russia arms control. She is sceptical the US can maintain New START limits, but proposes US-Russia-China talks on 1/ broad principles of nuclear stability/risk & 2/ cold war-type risk reduction concepts e.g. launch notification. www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

"Several people familiar with internal administration deliberations said any initial land attack would probably be a targeted operation on alleged trafficker encampments or clandestine airstrips, rather than a direct attempt to unseat Maduro." www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

"As of Monday, roughly 8 per cent of American warships deployed globally were in the Caribbean, according to a fleet tracker from the US Naval Institute." ft.com/content/dc10...

A good summary of the mood in Brussels on the big geopolitical questions. "Early this year some European politicians sought closer ties with China as a hedge against American bullying. Today dependency on China is a greater concern" www.economist.com/internationa...

"SBU Brig. Gen. Ivan Lukashevych said the new vessels also feature AI-assisted friend-or-foe targeting systems" apnews.com/article/russ...

I wrote this week on the private military company (PMC) industry: how it has evolved after the Iraq boom, whether mercenaries are associated with more battlefield abuses than regular forces (it depends), and why some believe another boom is coming. www.economist.com/business/202...

'The cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) will cost an estimated £1.9bn and be the most economically damaging cyber event in UK history, according to researchers.' www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Lessons from the air wars. "Russia managed to strike more than 75% of Ukrainian air defense sites in the first few days of the invasion, although the destructive effects were limited. Russia does not appear to have sufficiently updated its target lists..." www.csis.org/analysis/air...

"no basis exists for characterizing the hostilities between the United States and any drug cartels as a NIAC. Trafficking is simply not the sort of activity contemplated by the law of armed conflict as potentially triggering an armed conflict." www.justsecurity.org/122756/drug-...

"it is deeply concerning that military legal advisors at every level of the chain of command may have provided the proverbial green light for this attack, and perhaps even more concerning if they were cut out of the decision-making process" www.thecipherbrief.com/a-dangerous-...

A final plug for my interview with Mark Rutte, the NATO- sec-gen. Well worth a watch. We covered the calculus over when to shoot down Russian planes, his view of Russia-China collusion & why he thinks Reagan/Thatcher are relevant to European geopolitics. www.economist.com/insider/insi...

A complete dismantling of the Trump admin's legal case for drug-boat strikes. "Unlike al-Qaeda, there is no objective support for the conclusion that Tren de Aragua intends to inflict death and destruction on the United States or its citizens..." warontherocks.com/2025/10/why-...

So Nо10 will publish the Collins witness statements in the China spy case. Clearly Downing St is confident of its position. Looks like the defence will be that Collins could not go beyond first witness statement, given under the Tories The "substantive evidence" was given in Nov 2023, Starmer says

Our story on what an embassy row & spy case say about where UK-China relations are headed. This government came to power aiming to cool down the rhetoric & build a clearer & more consistent China strategy, but it's hard to see much evidence of either. www.economist.com/britain/2025...

Charlie Parton on the China spy trial. If gov't wasn't willing to say China was a threat, CPS "could have called in...ex-heads of the intelligence services, China experts..they didn't do that, which strikes me as an example of ineptitude" sinocism.com/p/sinocism-l...