The @wsj.com's latest Iran editorial suggested an inevitable Iranian march to acquire nuclear weapons that only force could prevent, but that's just not what the evidence suggests. @thebulletin.org published some of my thoughts. thebulletin.org/2026/03/revi...

(1/3) Catch up on our recent analysis: • U.S.-Israel-Iran War • Sudan • Epstein Files • AI Governance • Symposium: Updated ICRC Commentary • United Nations • Anti-Corruption Series • Counterextremism • Trump Executive Actions www.justsecurity.org/133442/diges...

That's "buried under rubble" donchaknow, Matt?

If the Trump administration’s objective in Iran is regime change, “that’s going to probably require ground troops,” Institute expert @richardmnephew.bsky.social told ABC News.

Latest from me on anti-corruption issues (yes, that is still a problem too) A Year Later – What Did the Pause on FCPA Enforcement Do? at www.justsecurity.org/133481/year-...

Just on this question about whether there could be an effort to close the SOH, @columbiauenergy.bsky.social and @cnas.bsky.social did this report in 2019. Still checks out: In Dire Straits? Implications of US-Iran Tensions for the Global Oil Market www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications...

So Iran had a supreme leader who agreed to a deal with robust international monitoring to curtail his country's nuclear program, Trump tore it up because he hates Barack Obama, and then we murdered him. I'm sure the assembly of experts will replace him with a US lackey. Totally.

Yeah, that would be pretty bad. And your plan to address that problem is...?

Also going to need to make a t-shirt to capture the administration’s general attitude: “Plans are woke and DEI”

The approach suggested here (such as it is) seems to be: Bomb Iran Hope for the best Come back and bomb some more if needed

Agree. It suggets three things: 1) State is an internal wreck. B/C even if secrecy forbade you from telling your staff before, we're now in hour 72 and they're fumbling. 2) Rubio (and Trump) don't give a damn about their/our people. 3) Boy, were they overconfident this would all be over by now.

This was exactly my first thought. And it underscores some uncertainties here, not least: who is giving these guys orders, what is on/off limits, what would make them stop, etc.? SLK being dead is important, but not decisive and it has not been for a long time.

Views from me and Brad Brooks-Rubin on Sanctions at the State Department. theledgereconstatecraft.com/index.html

worth reading on the whole Team USA situation www.nytimes.com/athletic/706...

@mattduss.bsky.social on the other site said, "If you’re telling me that Iran poses such a dire threat to the US that war is necessary, but also there’s no need for Congress to debate and vote on that war, you’re telling me you don’t actually believe the first thing." 1/5

What fresh hell is this?

#SCOTUS tariff decision is significant in all sorts of ways but don't lose sight of impact on US economic coercion against Cuba, Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. For example, personally, I can't see how the Cuba EO is legal now.

Don't let this go by. The president of the United States is talking about how members of his cabinet decided to burnish his ego by naming a building after him, lamenting to some degree that he wasn't just given a lot of money (from his cabinet? Who precisely would just give him a sack of cash, hm?)

If you're looking for a great, important read: "Indulging Kleptocracy," by @HeathershawJ, @tenaprelec, and Tom Mayne. Important review of the role of enablers in corruption AND -- consequently -- ideas about how to respond.

Worst thing about this is not the notion that if only we had a few more nuclear weapons, we'd finally be secure. www.wsj.com/opinion/if-y... The worst thing is that it's textbook "fighting the last war." Russia is threatening NATO states, China is threatening Taiwan in spite of US nuclear weapons.

Listen, I can appreciate why they're doing it this way and I'm not allergic to the idea of fudging these dates, not least because it's pretty unlikely we or the Russians materially change the global nuclear balance in a short period of time, given what we have. But, come on. This deadline was known.

It's remarkable how people who are good at one thing (e.g. setting up a global market) think they must be good at many other things (e.g. owning a newspaper). Why not count your blessings you made a ton of money on that one thing and just hit the beach? #WhyImnotabillionaire.

Their leadership also refers to that restaurant as existing in a theater of war they’ve been deployed to

“Don’t call us the Gestapo or we’ll have to summarily execute people.”

The killing of Alex Pretti is a heartbreaking tragedy. It should also be a wake-up call to every American, regardless of party, that many of our core values as a nation are increasingly under assault.

There truly is no limit to the shame and embarrassment with which that man is going to stain us. To our former friends and allies, I am sorry.

This this this this this.

This is the right take. Let's not give him kudos for sort of, not really, acknowledging that attacking the territory of an ally is a bad idea. He should be roundly condemned for even contemplating it. Putting that idea out is itself a problem and he gets no credit for climbing down, if he truly has.

Read this. Inertia is no longer going to prevent bad outcomes from Trump Administration recklessness. Even if this Greenland nonsense were to stop tomorrow, they have gone too far. www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/spee...

1/ No better way to strengthen #Putin and undermine our own security than: -destroying #NATO from within -embracing spheres of influence / conquest at the expense of the UN Charter system that supports global peace and prosperity No one benefits more from those rules than the US. #Greenland

@richardmnephew.bsky.social spoke with @lawfaremedia.org's Ariane Tabatabai about the latest developments in Iran, the Trump administration's approach to Iran policy, and what might be in store this year.

Do not forget.

Read this. Global Corruption, Local Hypocrisy: The Promises and Pitfalls of the U.S. Combating Global Corruption Act at www.justsecurity.org/126467/globa...

Huge fan of the EPPO, which is a serious anticorruption organization. You want to restore faith in institutions? Police them in transparent, fair, impartial ways.

For U.S. sanctions against Russia to be effective, Washington must also “stem the pipeline of energy-fueled cash from Beijing to Moscow,” write Erica Downs and @richardmnephew.bsky.social.

Latest from me with Erica Downs on Russia-China and oil sanctions. October was a start but the USG has to do more if it wants to be serious about pressure on Russia and demonstrate to China that it means what it says about other issues to boot. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Dan's point about the world having passed us by is a reason why that book I was thinking about writing -- the value the U.S. received from expanding good governance as an international operating principle and how to do it more -- has been permanently shelved. Felt like a eulogy.

Absolutely appalling. "Accept this prejudicial peace or we will abandon you to the wolves" is disgraceful, dishonorable, and an unnecessary capitulation to Russia. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

It does get worse as you read it. My "favorite" part is the gracious concession that "European NATO forces will be stationed in Poland." You know, that European country that also happens to be in NATO.

Pretty disgusting surrender ter...I mean "proposal" being offered here. www.axios.com/2025/11/19/t...

Fighting corruption remains essential for Ukraine to defeat Russia's war of aggression; NABU/SAPO merit praise for their courage in investigating and prosecuting these cases, consistent with the rule of law. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Oh, come on. How to lobby Trump with Swiss precision: gifts, gold and gab www.axios.com/2025/11/14/t...

👇 Unless Congress affirmatively voted to authorize Trump admin strikes against suspected drug cartel affiliates (which are already illegal under domestic and international law), another law kicks in on Monday that requires the President to withdraw the U.S. military:

In my job as US anti-corruption coordinator, I spent a lot of time talking to partners about the importance of accountability. A lot of people couldn't hold their leaders accountable; they asked us to do what we could via sanctions. Thinking of those people right now, amid another betrayal.

Try reading this without your jaw dropping. Yes, even now, my jaw dropped. Trump Said to Demand Justice Dept. Pay Him $230 Million for Past Cases www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/u...