Russia has released a video showing the Oreshnik deployment site in Belarus. It appears to be the same site we announced last Friday, the former Krichev-6 aerodrome.

Along with @duitsmanms.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social, I think we found the first deployment site in Belarus of the the Oreshnik IRBM. 🧵

Fixed that for you, KCNA. "Comrade Kim Jong Un said that the Party Central Committee is pleased that the [surviving element of the] shipbuilding sector is upholding the Party's new century naval force construction line and achieving brilliant production results ..."

The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵

I sued Dept of Energy b/c they were using fee status harassment to deny me use of FOIA I almost broke my foot on stairs from scanning DOE FOIA stuff at UNM’s Zimmerman library I know taste of a surprisingly large number of nuclear weapon reentry vehicles/bodies #ArchiveAdventures

Excellent NYT investigation confirms this.

Let's not confuse the people giving the stupid orders with the people who have to deal with following them, who are often good and decent people.

The new PRC white paper on arms control contains a strong and clear endorsement of China's no-first use policy. Whatever else one might say about the paper or the policy, one can't say it is ambiguous.

It’s about ethics in political journalism but we’re only at two guys.

Turkey has issued a number of NOTAMs for the Black Sea covering 23, 25, 26 November and 02 December, all are surface to unlimited & run between the hours of 2100 & 2259. Officially described as "GUN FIRING" I think these may relate to planned missile tests from the launch complex at 41.93N 28.04E.

I might fly too much.

Is the pink three-piece suit still standard for NEST teams?

New book from @wellerstein.bsky.social , the foremost historian of the nuclear age. (Also, one of my favorite people.) www.harpercollins.com/products/the...

One more.

Getting ready for class on hypersonic missiles tomorrow.

The film #AHouseOfDynamite ends before the bomb hits Chicago, where @bulletinatomic.bsky.social is based. They asked me to describe what it would happen to the Windy City, so I dropped 20 KT and 4 MT bombs using @wellerstein.bsky.social's Nuke Map. (Hint: it's bad.) thebulletin.org/2025/11/vide...

New post on the history of Soviet and Russian hydronuclear tests axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...

President Trump's interview on 60 Minutes did very little to clarify his stance on the United States resuming full-scale nuclear tests for the first time in more than three decades. Let's look at some of his statements. 1/11

one of those funny little things where a one-term democratic administration picking the wrong lawyer with an inflated sense of doing things as written rather than as intended leads to catastrophic downside (in this case, Carter, 1980, and government shutdowns) www.govexec.com/management/2...

The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I sat down to talk about the potential for a return to nuclear testing and what we think it may mean - www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

All nuclear explosions are supercritical. He probably means “hydronuclear” — slightly supercritical with insignificant fission release (<1 lb). The US conducted ~35 during the 1958-1961 test moratorium. As a Harvard-educated lawyer, he can understand this—if it’s to his benefit.

This clarifies nothing.

Resuming U.S. Nuclear Tests Would Only Help China, One Expert Says www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum... “The only countries that will really learn more if testing resumes are Russia and to a much greater extent China,” says Jeffrey Lewis - @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social

Now on @sciam.bsky.social: At least one nuclear-weapons expert (one of many, I’d reckon) is baffled by Trump’s call to “immediately” resume U.S. nuclear tests. An enlightening convo with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, courtesy of @danvergano.bsky.social. www.scientificamerican.com/article/trum...

DoD (DoW?) doesn't run US nuclear testing. DoE does. So I think the actual tip off of what Trump meant came from the statement itself. But who knows. Renewed US nuclear tests was on my bingo card for any GOP administration, as @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast many times

Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Another resource: What would be the purpose of nuclear testing if the US matched what Russia is accused of doing? The @nationalacademies.org panel on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty outlined what one might do with so-called hydronuclear, extremely low-yieldand very low-yield tests.

The @statedeptus.bsky.social 2021 "compliance report" is the most detailed unclassified statement on Russian, Chinese nuclear testing. DIA said something similar in 2019. Russia is directly accused of low-yield testing, while there are only concerns about Chinese transparency.

I was hoping I'd get around to doing a full review in the next month or so, once the vessels had gone home - but anyway, just to highlight something: there were, since August, something like 6 or 7 other potential test windows, based on vessel/aircraft movements. Below just shows since September.

David was all over that Burevestnik test.

Vessels appear to be beginning their migration from Matochkin Shar, northwards to monitoring positions, either side of the north island. Current Burevestnik related NOTAMs cover out to 22 OCT.

Also @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social's TIMELESS classic, the 2020 Commission....

In @npr.org, experts discuss what #AHouseOfDynamite gets right—and wrong—about nuclear war. Featuring expertise from @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and Daryl Kimball of @armscontrolnow.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/10/24/n...

There it is.

It's normal to spiff up the capital when one takes power.

The South Korean military now saying this launch involved "several projectiles believed to be short-range ballistic missiles." Launched around 8:10am Wednesday from the vicinity of Chunghwa, North Hwanghae Province, North Korea.

5 days ago, the ROK defense minister indicated North Korea might test the new large, solid-propellant ICBM that North Korea presented at its most recent parade (Hwasong-20). That's what we assume this is, although that's still speculation. No announcement by the Japanese yet.

I am starting to see why, having been purged twice, Xiang Shouzhi declined a third opportunity to run the rocket force (then-Second Artillery) explaining that he preferred tending pigs during reeducation through labor to another stint at court.

What's good for the goose is good for the gander. Why not arm Ukraine with systems comparable to those being used against it? If Putin thinks Typhon is escalatory, he's welcome to stop firing so many comparable missiles at Ukraine. I'd be happy to match his restraint. www.wsj.com/opinion/toma...

La Taqueria is great, but I rate it as only the third best burrito spot in the Mission. To be fair, that’s a little like being only the third best Beatle. Still pretty great. (None are as good as El Charrito in Salinas/Monterey tho’) www.sfgate.com/food/article...

With everyone talking about sea otters, Taylor Swift, and the Monterey Aquarium, I want to share some of @slair.bsky.social’s thesis research. Because before David Packard funded the rescue of sea otters at the Aquarium, he helped kill about a thousand of them in a nuclear test.

I continue to think the appropriate punishment for mishandling classified information is the loss of access to classified information, but not criminal prosecution unless the person commits espionage. How did I end up defending the Rage Walrus? Fuck 2025.

Very pleased to announce that @fpri.bsky.social will be teaming up with/ @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social & @slair.bsky.social for a 2-year Carnegie Corps funded project. We will be working directly with commercial space on a roadmap to strengthen space security www.carnegie.org/news/article...

Excited to attend a @bulletinatomic.bsky.social & @stanfordcisac.bsky.social screening of A House of Dynamite.

Soviet missileers.

Something happened during Kim Jong Un's visit to the new destroyer make Defense Minister No Kwang-chol (노광철) strip off his uniform. Maybe he was planning to shotgun a Taedonggang beer.

🥖🍷🇫🇷

I am old enough to remember when very serious people™️ said we couldn't save money by putting the D5 in silos because it would require expensive new silos and other infrastructure.

I worked through some more thoughts about mixing AI and nuclear weapons, an interview I wasn't able to use somewhere else, and what it's like to stare at the Chicago skyline while @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social tells you all the pieces that would be ash if anyone dropped a nuke on it

This is pure cope by the ROK prez. The US IC concluded in 2017 (per @nktpnd.bsky.social) that a North Korean nuclear warhead would survive reentry. Every country that figured out how to build an ICBM also figured out reentry. WE SHOULD STOP DARING KIM TO PROVE IT.