I think a big part of the derangement of the average American is that they see people on their phone who are lying about how successful they are, believe that they're telling the truth, and then get mad that they aren't that successful right now.

This is a good lesson for journalists: Use plain language to state true things clearly.

Again, this is a feature of Tomahawk route planning. Tomahawk doesn’t know where it is unless it makes a number of unique terrain matches over an ingress route that must extend for several hundred kilometers. In 2003 routes over Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran were used during strikes on Iraq.

I don't know who needs to hear this, but Tomahawk Block IV can dive vertically.

I notice that over on the bad site that the people who promised us a "better deal" with Iran are now proposing special forces raids to fight their way in and secure Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium.

Glad to see "Greeted as liberators" still doing a lot of work for the wishful foreign policy wonk.

I Never Thought Leopards Would Eat My Face, Sobs Congressman Representing Leopards-Eating-Faces Party.

"surely the third democratic presidency to come to power after a norm-breaking and warcrime-cheering Republican administration will pursue justice against their predecessors," I repeat like a mantra til I collapse

Since people are rediscovering "clobbering" of cruise missiles, let me explain: Tomahawks use "terrain contour matching" (TERCOM) to find their way to targets. For reasons, about 1-2% of Tomahawks "clobber" -- get lost and fly into the ground -- en route to target.

Wrote up some thoughts on the current war with Iran. You can't have a strategy if you don't even have a policy. open.substack.com/pub/bafriedm...

The camera looks like it has a pretty narrow field of view, ~30°. As best I can work out, this is a strike on one of the other buildings at the IRGC compound -- the school should be to the visual right of the palm tree.

That looks like a TLAM and that is almost certainly the IRGC compound in Minab, looking north-ish across Imam Khomeini Blvd./Route 91.

I have questions about the tunnel emphasized by the @nytimes.com & @trbrtc.bsky.social. The main question concerns the very long, shallow path to reach the protection of the mountain unlike the three tunnel entrances on which we normally focus. It's curious.

There is basically zero chance the @iaeaorg goes commando, as it were. (10x the IAEA-UNCSOM tension in post-1991 Iraq. Disaster.) More likely is an Iraq Survey Group-like arrangement, which maybe includes some friendly former IAEA inspectors and consultants. @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social

this is not what maven does or is capable of doing, full stop anyone who says otherwise doesn't know what they're talking about

Unit cost of PrSM Increment 1 is $2.09 million (TY$), while the median school lunch cost in SY14-15 was $3.81. Two PrSMs launched works out to about 1.1 million school lunches. War is a ferociously expensive way to settle disputes.

More likely a PrSM

I think one reason that many of us are skeptical that the regime in Tehran will fall with airpower alone is that the US also tried this in Iraq in 1991, as Operation Desert Storm transitioned into the no-fly zones of Operations Provide Comfort I/II. 👇 www.cfr.org/articles/rem...

Again, only one Arrow-3 launch over the night of March 5, this time from Tel Aviv. Brings the total Arrow-3s recorded since the war started to 16. That is still below the number used during the first night of the 12-Day War alone

More TEL plinking at Isfahan north At least two more launchers caught out. One spilled propellant along a field, and the other left a large scorch mark on an interior road in the base. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Better images of the Shahid Bakeri solid propellant plant show extensive damage. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Khorgu was hit again. This time it looks like the tunnel entrances were targeted. Unclear whether ground-penetrating munitions were used, but the site is certainly more damaged now. Evidence of TEL plinking as well from scorch marks. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the images

Shortly before the war I looked at Iranian air defenses & found some weird bedfellows at the former S-300 site in Isfahan: A SA-5 & an Iranian domestic SAM launcher. I joked about not wanting to find out how well this jank-AD integration would be. Well, we did find out. The answer: not well at all.

One of the Iranian air defense sites where I spotted S-300 launchers before the war was hit hard. Emplacements for radars and SAM launchers were struck, and many support buildings destroyed. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Confirmed the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was damaged by Iran, thanks to an incredible image from our friends @planet.com Debris from the damaged face has fallen on the roof of the main building and there is water runoff from the firefighting effort

So much good information and anlaysis coming from up and coming scholars like @slair.bsky.social during this operation.

This is such a sick burn if you know you know.

A strike on the Assembly of Experts is the clearest statement that Israel's goal is regime change not counterproliferation. I will repeat what I said in June: the operation is a tactical success if the regime falls, a failure if it does not.

Pretty much. Also, Khamenei limited Iran's missile range to 2,000 km against the recommendation of the IRGC.

Am late to the party, but I had not noticed that the US used the PrSM Increment 1 for the first time in combat. At ~500 km range, it's a big improvement over ~300 km range ATACMs given the geography of the Gulf.

Those service members would still be alive if there had been a basic effort by their leaders at hardening/passive defense. No reason to have a makeshift operations center in a war where you determine D-day.

Raytheon Executive: I know you’re skeptical about buying American again. But hear me out. The MIM-104 Patriot is the only surface to air missile system with a proven track record of success against the US Air Force. Danish Defense Minister: Continue.

👏All ballistic missiles are hypersonic👏

Conventionally-armed ballistic missiles suck unless one can achieve very high levels of accuracy. Last time Israel didn’t even bother to intercept Iranian missiles aimed at passively defended targets. No reason to think this will turn out differently for the Iranians.

St. Paul’s Bones—copied from Devil Takes a Holiday in Burlington.

unlocked this episode of Angry Planet with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social that's a detailed rundown of the entire history of the Iranian nuclear program and its negotiations with America

I was geolocating the July 2025 Typhon launch from Australia last summer and--even though I teach my students that focal length can mislead--I was somehow still surprised by how misleading focal length can be. Around -15.32, 130.49° at 8:04:03 UTC+9:30.

This is practically an endorsement of Iranian proliferation www.axios.com/2026/02/28/t...

My GOAT is back!

You can see a near miss exo intercept attempt by an Arrow-3 around 1:00

Looks like 7 Arrow-3 launches captured last night. For comparison, the 12-Day War peaked at 20 Arrow-3s launched during the night of June 13-14

Photos appear to strongly confirm UKR reports Russia has used 9M729 ground launched cruise missile (SSC-8 SCREWDRIVER) dozens of times. Shout out to @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social whose analysis is featured. Russian deployment of system was a key point cited in USA w/drawal from INF treaty.

The Trump people promised a better deal with North Korean than either the 1994 Agreed Framework or the JCPOA with Iran. That didn't happen then and it won't happen now. They might get some sort of deal, but it won't be better.

many people are saying

There is a widespread misunderstanding about the DIA claim that Iran could develop an ICBM on the basis of SLVs by 2035. The same document also says that by 2035, it could have 60 (SIX-OH) ICBMs.

North Korea's "3.18 Revolution" liquid propellant rocket engine (LPRE) was co-developed with Iran. Iran released pictures of an itty bitty model of one at the space day last year. Might be for an SLV, but also makes a great ICBM LPRE.

We now have a slide from @UnderSecT on the suspicious event at Lop Nor in China. One can see how much smaller this event is than the earthquakes selected for comparison by looking at the noise prior to the start of the event.

What a weird anniversary.

This is amazing, infuriating and dredges up a lot of resentment I had managed to bury. The evidence was overwhelming and so many people refused to see it. www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

The attached file shows all detections at PS23 (MKAR array, Makanchi, Kazakhstan) between 00:00 and 12:00 Zulu on June 22 2020 that are associated with events in the ISC bulletin. www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/... There are no such detections between 08:30 and 10:00 Zulu on this day at this station.