🧵 Our experts provide commentary on the Third Gulf War. buff.ly/ZkI5ULl Aaron Stein: An often overlooked issue is deconfliction. Put simply: there is a lot of metal flying in the air, the US and Israel fly the same airframes, and that can lead to unintended outcomes.

In case you missed the event, watch the recent discussion about Europe's nuclear future on our YouTube page.

At the conclusion of the 12-day war, @fpri.bsky.social launched a study on the air campaign. Read Guy Plopsky’s analysis below. We obviously have launched a follow on study to discuss Epic Fury www.fpri.org/article/2026...

The use of the AH-64 for drone defense is lifted directly from the IDF and is part of a layered approach, alongside AESA equipped fighters w/ AIM-9X or APKWS. It is neither novel nor new, but is part of the cost effective options available.

The USS Samuel B. Roberts hit a mine in 1988 on an escort mission of a Kuwaiti tanker. The incident kicked off Praying Mantis, which sunk Iranian Navy ships and used USSOF and air power to sink Iranian oil platforms. Were way passed Earnest Will/Praying Mantis. And the tools to coerce the regime

FWIW, the US Navy was opposed to the escort mission in 1986. People really should read up on the reflagged tanker escort mission and how the Reagan administration overcame Navy resistance, the legal hoops to reflag the tankers, how Kuwait used great power politics to force the Reagan admins hand ...

This is the "sophistication paradox" defined. You can achieve a high kill ratio, but if your force is so exquisite and say, you have a 10:1 ratio, but the opponent has 15 units compared to your ten, they still end up being plus, especially when "blue" has slow delivery times for new weapons

🇳🇬 Monday, March 16 at 10:30 EDT: Join FPRI's Africa program for our upcoming virtual event.

Initial reports indicate a small number of mines currently in the Strait of Hormuz, but it only takes the threat of mines to throttle shipping. U.S. mine clearing capabilities have badly atrophied, and mine clearing can’t be done in stride. Especially in the shadow of land-based ASCMs. 2/

In 1991, it took a multi-national mine clearing task force of 40+ ships (plus aircraft) four months to clear Iraqi mines *after the war ended* and they knew where the mines were because they had the charts. Today, unmanned systems help, but the process is still extremely slow and dangerous. 1/

Turkey has no long range air defense and its F-16 fleet is not optimized to counter the drone threat. The reality for Ankara is that it has neglected both its Air Force and air defense for decades through mismanagement. It being spared here is a necessity.

Happening tomorrow at 11:00 EDT. buff.ly/JPmewg1

FWIW, I did a major @fpri.bsky.social on drone defense based on first person interviews with the USAF pilots tasked with the mission during True Promise 1/2. www.fpri.org/article/2025...

FPRI gathered experts to answer questions about Israeli and American air operations, degradation of Iranian missile and drone capabilities, the surprising role of submarine warfare, and allied naval commitments.

@slair.bsky.social has been monitoring every missile base in Iran (and many other things) this week.

We are watching in real time the destruction of Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. Two things can be true at the same time. This remains an incredibly challenging thing for pilots to do. It is also being done incredibly well.

Sam's OSINT analysis is top notch.

France will increase its nuclear arsenal and deepen cooperation with Germany and other European states to deter attacks. Sign up for the event on Tuesday, March 10 at 11:00 EDT.

It's clear the cost-exchange ratio is decidedly in the US favor. A narrow focus on Shahed/TBM defense misses a lot of factors the original concept from the 1970s was designed to capture. If you step back, Iran is on the wrong side of the curve. And badly so.

Experts from the @fpri.bsky.social analyze the latest military developments from the Third Gulf War @slair.bsky.social @dexeve.bsky.social @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social @salisbot.bsky.social & Guy Plopsky www.fpri.org/article/2026...

Read Joshua E. Segal's piece in #BehindtheFront on Ukrainian anti-drone tech and the value of embracing the 'good enough' philosophy.

A Shahed is a flying lawnmower. A Patriot is not. They aren't going to cost the same amount of money. The cost exchange stuff has gone way off the deep end.

Folks, you know less than you think about how submarine warfare works. Take a knee on this one.

I met many of my closest friends at the intersection of JSOC/SF/Airpower/Patriot missile production/Kurds … more than a decade ago. Nice to see — but those skills in demand. Having a lot of reminiscing about the old days on Signal

Viking Hammer on the fly cc: @timtb04.bsky.social @craigwhiteside.bsky.social

Virtual Event: Sign up for an upcoming discussion on March 31, "Russian Interests in the Arctic: The Northern Sea Route" with Mariia Vladymyrova and Emily Holland.

Virtual conversation on Iran, today at 1:00 EST. buff.ly/2Un3mKK

Join virtually on Tuesday, March 3 at 1:00 EST for a pressing conversation on the situation in Iran.

The F-15E friendly fire = 1/4 of the deployed units from the 492nd (I believe). Not good. Also reinforces an old joke: Patriot is more deadly to friendly fighters than any other SAM on the market

Quite the journey from Dora Farms to today as a strategy for day 1 air campaign outcomes

A few months ago, the US stressed that airstrikes took out Iranian S-300 missile systems. However, as tensions with Iran persist, S-300 launchers have been reemerging across defense sites. Learn more in Sam Lair's "Whither the Iranian S-300?"

If you missed our Germany Rearms event from February 5, watch the full discussion here. ▶️ buff.ly/BvVHkm0

If you missed our virtual event on Revitalizing US Maritime Power last Wednesday, watch the full discussion with Jacqueline Deal and William Cahill here. buff.ly/yQYbgOx

The President of the Iranian Space Agency recently announced their spaceport at Chabahar was completed, but is that really the case? Thanks to our friends @planet.com I got to the bottom of it (short answer: no). Enjoy a light weekend read on the ACW blog: www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...

I met one of my best friends arguing over Tanf. I had thoughts about the base and Iranian drones in the area. As it turned out, the guy I was talking with shot down the Shahed-129 I was so interested in studying. Sunset over Tanf. An image that symbolizes the withdrawal.

🇱🇻 In-Person Event: How does the war in Ukraine affect the Baltic countries? Join FPRI's Kaspars Germanis for this discussion at the Latvian Society of Philadelphia. Click to register for the event on February 14, 2026, from 2:00 to 4:00 PM. buff.ly/4FClwVc

Happening tomorrow at 10 AM EST - Revitalizing US Maritime Power: The Way Forward buff.ly/mYhRSYb

🆕 FPRI Experts React | Sanae Takaichi’s victory in Japanese Election

And #2 with the blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social on China’s maybe decoupled nuclear experiment www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...

The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social did 2 podcasts this week. First one is on the death of New Start www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...

We’ll have two episodes out soon. As Axl once said, just a little patience is required

TWO PODS IN THE CAN. (One on New START, another on Chinese nuclear testing.)

Issue #289 is out with comments from Mohammed Salih, @aaronstein1.bsky.social and more: 1. Syria clashes redraw map, threaten mass migration 2. US policy centers on IS containment 3. Greek marine park, Israeli ties test Ankara 4. Domestic & diplomatic wraps 5. ‘Marylin Monroe of Mardin’ arrested

There are only a few days left to sign up for the in-person event on Germany's security environment on February 5! RSVP now on our website. buff.ly/NSYxEc4

I'm excited to announce that 50 Maps That Don’t Explain the World: A Cartographic Tour from Ptolemy to Trump is finished and has found a publisher! My enduring gratitude to everyone who helped along the way.

The use of special operations forces requires coherent strategy from civilian decision makers. My latest for @fpri.bsky.social www.fpri.org/article/2026...

My latest podcast for @fpri.bsky.social with Saeid Golkar and Hamed Behravan :: The Islamic Republic Teeters open.substack.com/pub/fpriinsi...

Join us in person on February 5, 2026, at 5 PM to discuss Germany's security environment. buff.ly/AXmaKId

The latest from @fpri.bsky.social @salisbot.bsky.social discusses the Trump-Class Battleship and asks questions about the future of the US Navy open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

Provided my quick thoughts on the Venezuela raid to @fpri.bsky.social