The Delphic Oracle told King Croesus of Lydia that if he attacked Persia "a great empire will fall." He saw this as a prediction of victory and attacked. It was his own great empire that fell.

I just said no to going on the BBC at 5am to talk about whatever tf is going to happen to Iran overnight because I genuinely cannot stomach having to immediately talk about whatever it is after finding out about it at 4.45am, and I won't be able to handle any variety of "at least it wasn't a nuke!"

Received some helpful edits today from the peer review of a piece I wrote over a year ago, which I am very grateful for, but also

After a few recent conversations on #Bsky, I have come to realise that, bar a few specialists like @michaelshurkin.bsky.social and @taubhistory.bsky.social, very few Americans know and understand 20th c. French military history. I might write a couple of threads to bust a few myths.

BZ Ukraine! militarnyi.com/en/news/russ...

Given the times we live in right now, this is becoming a likely outcome for Artemis II

This whole thing is like being tied to a chair and watching a child playing with a grenade

🚨BOOK THREAD🚨 As I finish up the last book of the Hyperion Cantos (absolutely stunning) I am looking for recommendations! I tend to like hard sci-fi and cosmic horror - I loved Hyperion and Firefall most recently, and I read a lot of Clarke, Asimov, etc. TYIA!

The interview went great, didn't swear, but just to confirm it was about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and not Trump apparently stepping into the light of Islam on the most ironic day to do so.

It's an older meme, sir, but it checks out.

This is a super great day for me to be interviewed on Al-Jazeera, thoughts and prayers appreciated for me to remember not to swear on globally broadcast live television

What, and I cannot stress this enough, the absolute fuck

Big yikes on JASSM-ER stocks - and producing more of them means fewer LRASM. INDOPACOM right now:

Could someone do a welfare check on INDOPACOM

New mags, Ukraine style. Now I just have to find the guys at Airsoft who wear Soviet gear...

Just saw my first parody version of the Hitler bunker scene from Downfall as a report to Trump about progress in Iran.

SEAD/DEAD going well. It is fascinating to see how Iran has managed to deny the US/Israel air superiority *and* sea control without a functioning air force or navy. Missiles, drones, bunkers.

That F-15E shootdown got confirmed 5 minutes before I went on live TV to talk about mine clearance - if you want to see a naval expert struggle bus her way through an airpower interview with minutes of notice, check out Deutsche Welle English!

Me, in Arabic, on (what else) the Strait of Hormuz arabi21.com/story/174926...

Either Gen. George presented accurate force requirements for the HEU operation and got fired, or Hegseth is broadly hoping that throwing the Army under the bus will stop said bus from running over him. Or this is Kid Rock's fault. www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth...

Just had a dude slide into my LI DMs to explain the difference between tactical and strategic.

Just posting the war crimes now

Just did my 30th media thing on the Iran war

I got a free sample from one of those annoying vetbro coffee brands recently so I thought I'd try it today. I usually take my coffee LETHAL so I brewed it for five times as long as the packet suggested, yet still

Having done more media in the last two weeks than I've ever done in my career, I wanted to put together some thoughts on why it's so hard to be a US military analyst right now. There is nothing to analyse. Before we can look at operations, we draw on plans, strategies, rationales. Nope.

"Others need to resolve Hormuz" is the geostrategic equivalent for the rest of NATO of hearing a small tap on your bedroom door at 2am with "mom I frew up" www.politico.com/news/2026/04...

This is a really dumb plan even assuming it is all in one place and there are no decoy stashes. PLUS uranium hexafluoride is highly volatile, you can't just hoik it into a C-130 and call it good. Trump is going to get a lot of American troops killed.

More from me on US options in Iran. Les États-Unis peuvent sans doute prendre le contrôle de l’île Kharg. Ils risquent cependant de perdre beaucoup de soldats, particulièrement s’ils doivent demeurer sur place longtemps en étant soumis à des attaques iraniennes. www.lapresse.ca/internationa...

Good explainer article on what the MEUs are and what they can (and probably cannot) do today from @taskandpurpose.com Featuring quotes by @spettyjohn.bsky.social and me👇 taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics...

Another day of trying to do my job while Monitoring the Situation

So we're a paper tiger and yet still you need our help in the Gulf, except you don't because you've already won, but you're mad that we won't sign onto a war that you didn't consult us about, except you're fine without us

A Downing Street source suggested that if successful, this scheme could be expanded to include inflatable army tanks and fighter jets, allowing for a fully air-powered military by 2035. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=68155

Due to a lack of available aircraft, the 82nd Airborne are being sent into Iran to secure helium supplies. The Pentagon's new vision for airborne troops, the Balloon Over Land Lethality Order - Cloud Kinetic System, demands more helium than currently available in the US supply chain.

The Battle Assault Littoral Laser Ship will be a strong addition to the PLAN.

I just finished up doing media for today, here's a summary: - Uranium plan bad - Kharg plan bad - Blockade plan bad - AWACS loss yikes - Leaving Iran control of the Strait is a strategic defeat - Even if US stops, Israel/Iran won't - Everything is astronomically dumb - All-encompassing yikes

I see they're resorting to schoolyard reverse psychology now.

Hi, this is a message for Vietnam, there's a new recipient of the "America's Dumbest War" award, so if you could box up the plaque and mail it to Tehran, that would be super helpful.

Maybe some kind of plan of action. It could be joint, perhaps, and comprehensive, with a nice acronym. If only someone had tried that before.

Ever wanted to hear me talk about Arctic Sentry? Good news! You can ⬇️ www.kcl.ac.uk/events/arcti...

My thoughts, en français, about a US mission to recover Iran's uranium. In summary, big yikes. www.france24.com/fr/moyen-ori...

Is a Toyota with a Shahed launcher still a technical?

Your regular reminder that you don't hold territory with paras, they are an advance force. I really hope there's still someone at the Pentagon who knows that. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

I'm listening to my GWOT numetal playlist on my journey home, for the *~*~*vibes*~*~*

Went into work dinner. Came out of work dinner. Four new media requests.

Some thoughts from me in here. BLUF: It probably can't. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

I'm on a train trying to do media comment requests, and I think I just freaked out my seat neighbour by typing uranium hexafluoride into a search engine.

Just to remind us that there's another strait in danger

What in the goddamn is he whispering

Me whenever someone asks how I am right now