A chance to work with some of the most lovely folks around!

We need to go through the images carefully, but Kim Jong Un seems to have visited the new uranium enrichment facility identified by the @iaeaorg.bsky.social last year and located by @slair.bsky.social and yours truly at: 39.786° N, 125.759° E.

Going to take this opportunity to repost this piece @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I wrote nearly a year ago on the new enrichment plant at Yongbyon www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

I wrote something for @fpri.bsky.social on CENTCOM's request for Dark Eagle. While not super useful in that theater, the flexibility its range offers means such a deployment could pose issues for Moscow. Read more here: open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

My @fpri.bsky.social @slair.bsky.social analyzed Dark Eagle's performance and how even a deployment in the CENTCOM AOR can hold Moscow at risk, giving the US flexibility the INF never allowed for: behindthefront.substack.com/p/dark-eagle...

This is a great piece from Ankit. Many similarities to the Nixon admin's stated justifications for shifting to Safeguard: point defense is more stabilizing than area defense, easier targets to defend, etc. One thing worth more investigation is whether this generates bargaining leverage, a la SALT

Tapping the sign in light of scud-hunting discourse

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social has a great post on her substack folks should read! (I am biased because it cites the fabulous work Carl Parkin did last summer) I think I shared some of Nicole's biases on how quickly Iran could regenerate launchers and for how long open.substack.com/pub/axesanda...

Why decapitation complicates war termination: "We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive" www.axios.com/newsletters/...

I really doubt we will be able to park MQ-9s over China to plink TELs during a war... Two things can be true at once! The TEL hunting campaign in OEF can be the most successful so far in history, which it is imo, and not super applicable to high-level fights in other contexts!

I told @trbrtc.bsky.social & @johnismay.bsky.social the missile involved in the strike that killed 21 civilians, including at least 5 children, appears to be ~15 feet long--closer to a PrSM than an Iranian cruise missile. This is how I made that estimate. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...

Just in time for your weekend, I have a fresh piece out with @warontherocks.bsky.social on the new 🇫🇷 French nuclear doctrine of “forward deterrence” and why dispersed air operations are a better comparison to it than 🇺🇸 U.S. forward nuclear deployments and nuclear sharing arrangements in 🇪🇺 Europe.

The *actual* reason Truman reserved this power for himself, and refused to allow it to be delegated or shared by the military, is because he believed that this was the only way to *prevent* nuclear weapons from being used again. Full stop.

Time for a real-time case study in how predelegation of launch authority creates problems for establishing and maintaining cease-fires

Me and my colleague @slair.bsky.social looked at the drone counter-IAD campaign in Iran for @fpri.bsky.social :: The UAV-Enabled Anti-Air Defense Campaign in the Third Gulf War open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

@dexeve.bsky.social & I have a new piece out in Survival. In 2024, South Korea secretly deployed more than 300 KTSSM missiles at soft, fixed sites--suggesting that, in a crisis, Seoul may strike first & giving Pyongyang 300 reasons to beat them to it. doi.org/10.1080/0039...

Looks like one of my slides made it into this Space Force brief on how to annotate imagery! Glad to see they liked it as much as I did Also seems like the slides just endorse careful language for photo interpretation fwiw. Gotta respect analytic tradecraft

We also have a write-up online. Absent debris from an Iranian drone, it looks very much like a Patriot misfire. If it was deliberate, the intercept attempt looks rather irresponsible and out of character with what we know about how CENTCOM operates. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...

Our findings are discussed in this @reuters.com story by @jonathanlanday.bsky.social, MB Pell and Travis Hartman, with some incredible graphics from @sarahcahlan.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/investigatio...

The team(slair.bsky.social, @duitsmanms.bsky.social others) spent the last few weeks examining this video showing a U.S. Patriot launch in Bahrain. We're confident this interceptor was involved in the explosion over Sitra that damaged 60 residences and injured more than 30 people.

Aid to Ukraine from 2022-2026 was a rounding error. We used more in the first two weeks of the Iran war than we provided in the 4 years of aid to Ukraine.

North Korea claims it test-fired 12 nuclear-capable 600mm MLRS Salvo rockets on March 14, striking a target island in the East Sea at 364.4 km range with 100% accuracy. Launch site geolocated to Sunan Airport (순안국제공항), Pyongyang, at 39.26°N, 125.68°E

Thank you to @slair.bsky.social and @bcfinucane.bsky.social for taking the time to provide their expertise for this piece.

The damage to Shahroud is extensive More or less every building in the solid motor production lines was damaged, many destroyed. Several mixing & casting buildings, along with what might be non-destructive testing & premix buildings. Thanks to our partners @airbus.com for the image

More strikes at Kashan Tunnel entrances hit, along with more support buildings. Looks like the base has been pretty extensively damaged. Thanks as always to our friends @planet.com for the imagery.

Shiraz north missile base struck. Tunnel entrances extensively targeted, and scorch marks along the roads indicate damaged vehicles, probably more TEL plinking. No real damage to support buildings. Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the imagery!

Confirmed first damage to the Iranian solid propellant missile plant at Shahroud Casting and mixing buildings were damaged, along with parts of what the IDF alleges is a warhead production line. Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the imagery!

More damage at Garmdareh Lots of support buildings hit, with some big explosions. More scorch marks indicative of TEL plinking. Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the images.

More damage to Shiraz west Two tunnel entrances attacked, covers destroyed. Additional support buildings destroyed as well. Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the images.

Lar missile base struck Ejecta from targeted tunnel entrances visible. Many support buildings damaged or destroyed. Scorch marks in the roads are further evidence the TEL plinking campaign continues Thanks to our friends @planet for the imagery!

Our friends @planet.com got an excellent image of the missile base at Jam Lots of damage across the site, but a few things are worth looking at closer

We are watching in real time the destruction of Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. Two things can be true at the same time. This remains an incredibly challenging thing for pilots to do. It is also being done incredibly well.

The explosions tell only part of the story. The real contest in this war is unfolding in missile factories, command rooms, and underground tunnels. (Members Only) Listen here: warontherocks.com/pr...

One of the Iranian air defense sites where I spotted S-300 launchers before the war was hit hard. Emplacements for radars and SAM launchers were struck, and many support buildings destroyed. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Shortly before the war I looked at Iranian air defenses & found some weird bedfellows at the former S-300 site in Isfahan: A SA-5 & an Iranian domestic SAM launcher. I joked about not wanting to find out how well this jank-AD integration would be. Well, we did find out. The answer: not well at all.

Yazd missile base hit Tunnel entrances targeted. Support buildings destroyed. Craters along the road suggest efforts at TEL plinking, but its hard to say whether they were successful. Thanks as always to our friends at Planet Labs

Khorgu was hit again. This time it looks like the tunnel entrances were targeted. Unclear whether ground-penetrating munitions were used, but the site is certainly more damaged now. Evidence of TEL plinking as well from scorch marks. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the images

Better images of the Shahid Bakeri solid propellant plant show extensive damage. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

More damage at Khojir The new solid propellant production line to the east was extensively damaged. Buildings housing planetary mixers and casting buildings were destroyed. A large number of uncertain function buildings hit too Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery

More TEL plinking at Isfahan north At least two more launchers caught out. One spilled propellant along a field, and the other left a large scorch mark on an interior road in the base. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Missile base at Bid Kaneh hit Tunnel entrances appeared to have been hit with bunker busters. Support and checkout buildings destroyed as well. Scattered craters suggest some TEL plinking happening too. Thanks to our friends at Planet Labs for the imagery.

Again, only one Arrow-3 launch over the night of March 5, this time from Tel Aviv. Brings the total Arrow-3s recorded since the war started to 16. That is still below the number used during the first night of the 12-Day War alone

More remarkable shots of the Iranian cluster munitions warhead courtesy of Zaid M. Al-Abbadi

Experts from the @fpri.bsky.social analyze the latest military developments from the Third Gulf War @slair.bsky.social @dexeve.bsky.social @michaelbpetersen.bsky.social @salisbot.bsky.social & Guy Plopsky www.fpri.org/article/2026...

The Khojir complex run by Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group was hit Shahid Cheragi industries, which makes nitric acid, oxidizer for Iranian liquid fueled missiles was struck, along with the older solid propellant motor production facility. Thanks again to our friends @planet.com

Tabriz south missile base struck Recently built radome and support buildings destroyed, and tunnel entrances damaged. Lots of craters along the roads as well. Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the images

Missile base north of Kermanshah hit All the buildings were destroyed, looks like explosions along the road, and possible damage to tunnel entrances as well. Looks like ejecta near the tunnel entrances, perhaps from bunker busters. Thanks to @planet.com for the images!

So much good information and anlaysis coming from up and coming scholars like @slair.bsky.social during this operation.

Confirmed the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was damaged by Iran, thanks to an incredible image from our friends @planet.com Debris from the damaged face has fallen on the roof of the main building and there is water runoff from the firefighting effort