MTA Associate @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social delivers a sharp analysis showing why U.S. strikes on Iran have not resolved the core nuclear challenge Read her article here: carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

"The kind of build up we’re seeing today is not commensurate with the goals they have in terms of nonproliferation." Former Nuclear Futures Fellow @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social providing expertise to @cnn.com.

"Iran agreed a secret €500mn arms deal with Russia to acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles in its most significant effort to rebuild air defences shattered during last year’s war with Israel." www.ft.com/content/d034...

My comments on CNN about the impact of additional military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program

Quick thoughts on Russia's potential response to the expiration of New START axesandatoms.substack.com/p/farewell-t...

As some of you already know, I recently moved to Paris for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position at @ceri-sciencespo.bsky.social @sciencespo.bsky.social. Here is a recent interview I did on my research agenda and background. www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/news...

1/5 Great news! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is now #OpenAccess so that everyone can read it online. Thanks to generous support from @mitpress.bsky.social Direct to Open (D20). @managingtheatom.bsky.social @belfercenter.bsky.social Check it out here: doi.org/10.7551/mitp...

My recent piece on how Russia supports Iran’s repression.

Forthcoming in March from @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social ⬇️ Drawing on extensive Russian and Persian primary sources and interviews with elites from both countries, ‘Russia and Iran’ is the definitive account of contemporary relations between the two countries. Pre-order ➡️ tinyurl.com/46cz227j

“If Iran falls, for Russia this isn't just a humiliation, it's probably the last holdout of authoritarian countries that align with them…that isn’t North Korea.” @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social www.rferl.org/a/russia-ira...

As mass protests shake Iran, Russia is once again watching one of its allies slide into crisis. Meduza spoke with expert @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social about what the Kremlin is prepared to do for Tehran — and what it stands to lose. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Activists say #Iran has aired at least 97 coerced confessions from protesters, often after torture - @apnews.com's Melanie Lidman reports apnews.com/article/iran...

After a bruising year, Tehran is recalibrating. What comes next may matter more than what just happened. Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social), Behnam Ben Taleblu, and @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social explore what Iran faces in the year ahead. (Members Only) Listen here: warontherocks.com/episode/the-...

North Korea ‘has fired ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan’

New post on Iranian thinking after the June 2025 war and why missiles, not nuclear latency, are now at the center of Tehran's strategy. axesandatoms.substack.com/p/why-israel...

1/7 It's book publication day! "Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail" is out now from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series. Contents and discount codes below. @managingtheatom.bsky.social mitpress.mit.edu/978026205185...

Iranian nuclear experts held second covert meeting with Russian weapons institute— @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social a fellow in the nuclear policy programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the meetings… www.ft.com/content/1312... @maxseddon.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

Anyone know the best way to ship books from the US to Europe? Or any good storage places in DC? All the google results look like spam. Alternatively if anyone in DC wants the public papers of Clinton and Reagan, let me know.

First post in the rebrand of my Substack from the very bland title of Russia and Iran to Axes and Atoms —a nod to every axis that Russia and Iran have been cast into, and a space to examine the military and nuclear dynamics that shape both countries. axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...

New post on the history of Soviet and Russian hydronuclear tests axesandatoms.substack.com/p/the-questi...

It's not worth your time.

Poseidon belongs to a long Soviet lineage of experimenting with high-yield undersea delivery systems. These projects explored how ocean depth, pressure, and shock-wave propagation could be harnessed to shape or amplify nuclear effects. 🧵

From a 2015 report: a long horizontal cutaway of the Poseidon shows 1) acoustic/sonar/navigation sensors; 2) combat/warhead module; 3) instrumentation/control electronics; 4) compact nuclear reactor; 5) steam-turbine

Putin claims Russia successfully tested the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone: we managed not only to launch it from the carrier submarine using its booster engine, but also to start the nuclear power unit, on which the vehicle operated for a certain period of time. t.co/3dQupIKRKW

I was hoping I'd get around to doing a full review in the next month or so, once the vessels had gone home - but anyway, just to highlight something: there were, since August, something like 6 or 7 other potential test windows, based on vessel/aircraft movements. Below just shows since September.

Vessels appear to be beginning their migration from Matochkin Shar, northwards to monitoring positions, either side of the north island. Current Burevestnik related NOTAMs cover out to 22 OCT.

Joint letter from Russia, China, and Iran claims that the “termination” of UNSCR 2231’s provisions “marks the end of the Security Council’s consideration of the Iranian nuclear issue”

A little over a year ago, Iran launched Operation True Promise II against Israel. This came amid a surge of discussions about the value of Iran’s “threshold” nuclear status to raise the costs of strikes against Iran and fill the void in Iranian conventional capabilities.

Two podcast recommendations: At "Better Know a Nuke" #IISS @bollfrass.bsky.social, SWP's Azadeh Zamirirad & @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social discuss Iran's program t.ly/A2e6k, while at "Strategic Simplicity" @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social brings experts to talk nukes policy - nonpro here t.ly/LnC5c 10/10

Two podcast recommendations: At "Better Know a Nuke" #IISS @bollfrass.bsky.social, Azadeh Zamirirad & @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social discuss Iran’s nuclear program t.ly/A2e6k, while at "Strategic Simplicity" @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social brings experts to talk about nuclear policy t.ly/LnC5c 10/10

Our latest roundtable examines the rapidly evolving global nuclear order. From North Korea to NATO, China to Latin America, this collection of essays explores the domestic and international forces reshaping nuclear security. Full roundtable: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

From Iran’s nuclear ambitions to great power competition over energy, this essay by @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and Jane Darby Menton examines the complex nuclear dynamics shaping the Middle East and North Africa. 📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

Read @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and @jdmenton.bsky.social piece, "MENA at the Threshold? Proliferation Risks and Great Power Competition", in a series of essays by @tnsr.org on the shifting global nuclear order. Check it out here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

How far can Moscow and Tehran really take their uneasy cooperation? @osto.bsky.social and @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social discuss. Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

Iranian entities under UNSC sanctions

Re-upping this too: www.wsj.com/opinion/snap...

Russian UNSC statement: There has been no snapback, and there will be no snapback. Any moves to resuscitate anti-Iranian Security Council resolutions that were in effect prior to 2015 are null and void.

All pre-JCPOA UN sanctions on Iran will be reinstated tomorrow at 00:00 GMT. Read about it & how Russia might respond to the reinstatement of sanctions here: russiairan.substack.com/p/snapback-a...

The main sanctions that will be reimposed on Iran will be: UNSCR 1696 (2006) UNSCR 1737 (2006) UNSCR 1747 (2007) UNSCR 1803 (2008) UNSCR 1929 (2010)

Vote on UNSCR 2231 extension: 4 in favor 9 against 2 abstentions Snapback is happening. All pre-JCPOA UN sanctions on Iran will be reinstated at 00:00 GMT tomorrow.

Washington’s Ironclad Commitments Are Rusting in the Indo-Pacific | Gregory H. Winger, Miguel Alberto Gomez, and Lauren Sukin for War on the Rocks warontherocks.com/2025/09/wash...

New post on Russia's position on snapback sanctions on Iran and how Moscow might try to legitimize its noncompliance once sanctions go into effect russiairan.substack.com/p/snapback-a...

A very quick and crudely drawn map in QGIS, just to illustrate the clearest contrails and their locations. Also, a current map showing current vessel locations around Novaya Zemlya. Of note, Teriberka left Pankovo in the last few hours.

The US and Britain will sign an agreement to make it quicker for companies in both countries to build nuclear power stations when Trump visits this week, according to the UK government

Wrote a Substack post about Iran's lackluster plan to rebuild its military after the 12-day war with Israel russiairan.substack.com/p/irans-plan...

Iran’s parliament is advancing a Plan to Strengthen the Armed Forces as a path to rebuild after the 12-day war. Yet the financing is insufficient, execution uncertain, and the effort faces added risk of a reinstated arms embargo from snapback sanctions.🧵

Iran's membership in the SCO would not be impacted if UN sanctions are reimposed, as this provision only applies to prospective members, not existing ones like Iran. "A state that wishes to join…should have no sanctions imposed on it by the United Nations Security Council."

Today Iranian President Pezeshkian is in Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. Thread on the SCO and Iran’s role in the organization.🧵

Thank you Bluesky!!!

Thoughtful analysis of the perspectives from Europe, Russia, and Iran, and of a narrow potential path to accord from @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social. In addition, she's been posting a number of useful items on action in Iran's parliament, the text of Russia's draft UNSC resolution, etc.