New post on Russia's position on snapback sanctions on Iran and how Moscow might try to legitimize its noncompliance once sanctions go into effect russiairan.substack.com/p/snapback-a...

A very quick and crudely drawn map in QGIS, just to illustrate the clearest contrails and their locations. Also, a current map showing current vessel locations around Novaya Zemlya. Of note, Teriberka left Pankovo in the last few hours.

The US and Britain will sign an agreement to make it quicker for companies in both countries to build nuclear power stations when Trump visits this week, according to the UK government

Wrote a Substack post about Iran's lackluster plan to rebuild its military after the 12-day war with Israel russiairan.substack.com/p/irans-plan...

Iran’s parliament is advancing a Plan to Strengthen the Armed Forces as a path to rebuild after the 12-day war. Yet the financing is insufficient, execution uncertain, and the effort faces added risk of a reinstated arms embargo from snapback sanctions.🧵

Iran's membership in the SCO would not be impacted if UN sanctions are reimposed, as this provision only applies to prospective members, not existing ones like Iran. "A state that wishes to join…should have no sanctions imposed on it by the United Nations Security Council."

Today Iranian President Pezeshkian is in Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. Thread on the SCO and Iran’s role in the organization.🧵

Thank you Bluesky!!!

Thoughtful analysis of the perspectives from Europe, Russia, and Iran, and of a narrow potential path to accord from @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social. In addition, she's been posting a number of useful items on action in Iran's parliament, the text of Russia's draft UNSC resolution, etc.

This is interesting. We'll have to see what it says, but if this holds, the differentiation between 1 and 3 strongly implies that they're going to try to "voluntary offer" their way through safeguards, likely to deal with Bushehr and try to manage perceptions. 1/3

Text of the Russian resolution on extending UNSCR 2231

Fars News leaks the content of Iran’s NPT withdrawal bill: 1. Exit from the NPT & Additional Protocol 2. No negotiations under any circumstances with the US or E3 3. Suspension of cooperation with the IAEA

Iran’s bill to withdraw from the NPT—introduced after the E3 triggered snapback—is now in the Majlis. If labeled “urgent,” it could reach a vote within days, with Guardian Council members present to expedite review and approval.

The Countdown to Prevent Another Iranian Nuclear Crisis Just Began My thoughts on snapback for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Iranian MFA statement: The E3 “have neither the legal authority nor moral standing to invoke the so-called snapback.” Their effort to trigger snapback is “null, invalid, and devoid of any legal effect.”

Britain, France, and Germany just triggered the snapback mechanism for sanctions on Iran. With the deadline on a deal now set to 30 days, “time is running out to avert a renewed nuclear crisis with Iran,” says @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social. More in Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

France, Britain, and Germany have formally initiated the "snapback mechanism" in the UNSC. This process could reimpose all pre-JCPOA UN sanctions unless diplomacy succeeds within 30 days. 🧵

Boost this post, read the piece, and follow Stephen who is one of the most knowledgeable and innovative scholars in the nuclear field. He also writes beautifully and cogently.

1/8 Later this year from @mitpress.bsky.social in @belfercenter.bsky.social's Studies in International Security book series-- Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail. This is a sobering edited volume on how efforts to reduce nuclear weapons dangers may sometimes wind up exacerbating them.

Iran expert @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social explains that perhaps the key change as a result of the “12 Days War” is in Iranian domestic politics — with broad agreement among Iranian officials now that Iran needs not just nuclear latency but an actual weapon. carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Me on Iran and the IAEA a few days ago carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

One of the clearest takeaways during the Iran–Israel war was Tehran’s aggressive framing of the IAEA as complicit in foreign aggression. Iranian officials accused the Agency of leaking sensitive information that enabled Israeli targeting of nuclear facilities.

In my latest for @carnegieendowment.org’s Diwan, I examine how Iran is reassessing its national security policy and defense priorities after the Israel-Iran war and U.S. strikes on its nuclear program. 🧵

My latest for @rollingstone.com, on how the U.S. strikes on Iran may not have had the intended effect regardless of what happened at Fordow. With analysis from @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, @alivaez.bsky.social, @warmatters.bsky.social, and Farzan Sabet

Me in @carnegieendowment.org’s Diwan: The end of open hostilities has not brought clarity to Iran’s strategic direction. Instead, it has exposed an ongoing effort within the political and military establishment over how to interpret the war’s outcome. carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...

Congratulations to us as Syrians, and to all of Syria, on the occasion of President Donald Trump signing the historic executive order to lift U.S. sanctions—set to go into effect starting tomorrow.

As Iran, Israel, and the U.S. game out their next steps, we spoke with Iranian nuclear expert Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about what could happen next in this unclear war: nymag.com/intelligence...

In today's @financialtimes.com, I reflect on the implications of the joint Israeli-US attacks on Iran for a fragile and bruised nonproliferation regime on.ft.com/45Jehd3

A lot of technical assessments of Iran’s nuclear program feel rushed. There’s an overreliance on fuel cycle basics and projections built on major unknowns while overlooking domestic factors eg institutional disruption, procurement challenges, and acute paranoia.

Old video of Khamenei: After 9/11, America’s top officials vanished for days. No sign of the president, VP, or key leaders. We are not like this. If a crisis comes to our nation, we’ll be on the frontlines—with the people, in battle dress, ready to sacrifice. We do not hide.

Thoughtful piece from Nicole Grajewski. Damage is substantial -- but so is the incentive to move forward. "Military action can destroy equipment and facilities, but it cannot eliminate knowledge, dispersed materials, or the underlying strategic drivers of nuclear weapons development."

I agree that Israeli and American strikes have dealt a serious blow to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. But I think the chance that Iran will have a nuclear bomb in 10 years has grown, not shrunk, because the strikes greatly increased Iran’s incentive to get a bomb to deter further attacks.

“This ceasefire is not going to eradicate years of shadow war that Iran and Israel are locked into. And the nuclear issue continues to loom,” Nicole Grajewski, a nuclear-policy expert, tells @ichotiner.bsky.social.

The inspectors who are in Iran have not been kicked out yet, note that the bill bars inspectors from entering the country—nothing about those already present in Iran.

Translation of Iran’s “Law on Obligating the Government to Suspend Cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),” approved in accordance with Article 94 of the Constitution of Iran and by the Guardian Council.

I managed to get the full Majlis bill, it still was not published online as of yesterday. Since many people are taking about it w/o a clear understanding of the Iranian legislative process, I’ll share the translation here. I already posted it on X, if you need the Persian version please message me.

One of the clearest takeaways during the Iran–Israel war was Tehran’s aggressive framing of the IAEA as complicit in foreign aggression. Iranian officials accused the Agency of leaking sensitive information that enabled Israeli targeting of nuclear facilities.

“Decision-makers in Iran had no illusions about the extent of their ties to both Russia and China,” says @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social. But the two countries may position themselves as Iran’s allies in an anti-U.S. coalition. More from Nicole on @npr.org: www.npr.org/transcripts/...

We don’t know the full impact of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But “it’s all pointing to a very precarious situation,” says @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, “and it’s really hard to predict how this is going to unfold.” Nicole’s interview for @intelligencer.com: nymag.com/intelligence...

My piece for @carnegieendowment.org on the impact of US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, including the damage, long-term pathways to reconstitution, internal debates in Iran, and the future of the IAEA carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

How is Russia reacting to the ongoing Israel-Iran war, what's at stake for the Kremlin, and what's Putin's gameplan? We've unpacked this in a short episode of @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast with @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social & Arkady Mil-Man. Tune in! carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

[email protected] and I argue in The Boston Globe: The U.S. has an interest in preventing a nuclear Iran—but that’s not what this war is about anymore. It’s becoming a campaign for regime change, and the U.S. should resist being dragged into this war. 🧵

NEW: In @globeopinion.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and I argue that the US should not become a pawn in the Israel-Iran war www.bostonglobe.com/2025/06/18/o...

نتانیاهو خواستار تخلیه تهران شد: ‏نخست‌وزیر اسرائیل در اظهاراتی هشدارآمیز، خواستار خروج فوری شهروندان از تهران شد و احتمال اقدام نظامی را مطرح کرد.

Why #Xi + #Putin - #Iran’s strongest strategic partners - are panicking right now 🤯🤬🤢 Analysis @telegraphnews.bsky.social Insights 🙏 @geringtuvia.bsky.social @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

Front pages of Iranian newspapers June 15, 2025

IRGC Statement: Israel’s fighter jet fuel production facilities and energy supply centers were targeted with a large number of drones and missiles.

Assassinated Nuclear Scientists by Field: Nuclear Engineering: Fereydoon Abbasi, Ahmadreza Dolfaghar Daryani Physics: Mohammad Mahdi Tehranchizadeh, Amir Hassan Faghihi, Mansour Asgari

Iran managed to launch two waves of missile strikes on Israel before even appointing a new commander for the branch carrying out the operation

Guess I have to delete these slides from my Iran missile presentation