How did a Yemeni militia become one of Tehran's most powerful proxies? @osto.bsky.social and @thomasjuneau.bsky.social analyze the rise of the Houthis on the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning. (Members Only) Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

It was great to talk Iran-Houthi ties - background, their evolution more recently, the consequences of growing Houthi power - with Afshon @osto.bsky.social:

"Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has become more than a military force. In the latest episode of The Iran Reckoning, Afshon (@osto.bsky.social) and Yeganeh Torbati (@yjtorbati.bsky.social) unpack their growing role in the economy. Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep..."

New episode of the pod just dropped. Really enjoyed this conversation with Gregory Brew. Lucid and fascinating discussion on oil, politics, and the shadowy art of trade under sanctions

Look what just arrived! By some of the absolute best in their fields: Stéphane Lacroix, @musaalgharbi.bsky.social and @osto.bsky.social

Behind the warheads — Afshon Ostovar (@osto.bsky.social‬) and Fabian Hinz explore how politics, partnerships, and pressure shaped Iran’s missile ambitions. Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social

Where does Iran go after the 12-day war? Can it restore deterrence? How much is it willing to risk in regaining some of its lost power & influence? Its options are limited and will test its commitment to self-reliance. My latest in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social

Had an engaging, wide-ranging conversation with @faisalalyafai.bsky.social on Iran—what motivates its politics, what complicates its politics, and why it can be both a joy and a misery to cover. Many thanks to @newlinesmag.bsky.social for putting it together newlinesmag.com/podcast/what...

We’re doing a thing

Excellent analysis by @osto.bsky.social: “Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished.” www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...

The regional status quo that Iran established over the past three decades is finished—and it is now clear that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have lost their decades-long conflict with Israel, argues @osto.bsky.social.

Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com

APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israeli strikes on #Iran have killed at least 639 people and wounded 1,329 others, a human rights group says.

Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. — My latest in @foreignaffairs.com

The intelligence apparatus that has kept Khamenei in power for 4 decades is crumbling around him. He will spend the autumn of his life fighting to salvage the Islamic Republic. "The ship that he stewarded has run aground,” @osto.bsky.social told me My story: www.wsj.com/world/middle... #iran

@osto.bsky.social: "It’s a huge blow. It’s eviscerated a brain trust that has led Iran’s strategy for the last 20 years...It’s like taking out the bulk of your national security council...Khamenei is much more alone now than he was yesterday."

Some thoughts on the outbreak of war between Iran and Israel, and what it could mean going forward. Really appreciated this conversation with Jordan Kranse and @wsj.com www.wsj.com/video/series...

Iran lost several top military commanders to Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours. To get a better sense of what these losses mean for Iran and the region, I spoke with @osto.bsky.social, a leading expert on Iran's military who wrote a book on the IRGC's history. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/i...

Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com

Iran is not abandoning the Houthis. If anything, the Houthis are more vital to Tehran than they’ve ever been. My latest in @unherd.com

Very cool! Congratulations, Sam!

It was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...

Iran’s Baha’is face escalating persecution amid crackdown: What to know www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Has Iran suffered a strategic defeat, or is it just a setback? What does its regional presence look like today - and how did it get there? My podcast this weeks talks to the great Afshon Ostovar @osto.bsky.social about his new book Wars of Ambition pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...

It was a real pleasure to sit down with @abuaardvark.bsky.social and @pomeps.bsky.social for a wide ranging discussion on my new book, Iran’s current political crisis, and shifting US policy pomeps.org/wars-of-ambi...

Very honored to see Wars of Ambition make this list and be among such illustrious company

There is much that is unclear about Iran’s decisions over the last week. Iran has abandoned the revolution’s life’s work without a fight. There is little chance that such an extreme external collapse occured without severe turmoil inside the regime. This story is far from over.

There is much that is unclear about Iran’s decisions over the last week. Iran has abandoned the revolution’s life’s work without a fight. There is little chance that such an extreme external collapse occured without severe turmoil inside the regime. This story is far from over.

IRGC Telegram accounts coming to terms with what’s happening is something to behold. Their entire world is imploding and their side—the resistance—isn’t even resisting. There’s scant attempt to paint a rosy picture, or tease out some greater strategy. They’re simply losing.

Losing ground in Syria will make Iran look increasingly weak to its enemies in Tel Aviv & Washington. If Iran doubles down it could be throwing men & materiel into a losing battle. But if Iran falls back, it’ll be admitting defeat, and cede hard-fought territory to its rivals.

Iran & Russia invested heavily in Assad. For Iran, Assad’s regime was too big to fail & critical for its strategic ambitions. For Russia, he guaranteed great power projection. Now, with Moscow & Tehran tangled in crises of their own, Assad is being treated like Bear Stearns.

As Iran is removing forces from east Syria, some units like the Afghan Fatemiyoun brigade, are being transferred from the north to Damascus and Latakia, as well as the Sayyida Zeinab area. Iran’s Afghan & Pakistani foreign legion might be the ones asked to go down with the ship

The rapid collapse of Iran’s Levantine front has been stunning. There was never a doubt that the power of Iran and its proxies rested on a house of cards—but what had been remarkable was their tenacity in war. That has vanished, at least for the moment. 1/

The rapid collapse of Iran’s Levantine front has been stunning. There was never a doubt that the power of Iran and its proxies rested on a house of cards—but what had been remarkable was their tenacity in war. That has vanished, at least for the moment. 1/

Officials said casings collected after the shooting appear to have been inscribed with words including “delay” and “deny.”

Thrilled to announce my new book is finally out! Centered on the clashing agendas of the U.S. and Iran from 9/11 to the Gaza war, it examines how we got here, where it's all headed, & why the Middle East will remain vital to global geopolitics. www.amazon.com/Wars-Ambitio...

Even the day after, it was clear that Oct 7 was going to upend the Mid East’s tenuous state. What wasn’t clear was how. What we’re seeing in Syria is perhaps just the start of the ripple effects of Israel’s wars. Momentum has shifted—but we’re a long way from a definitive reset.

Even the day after, it was clear that Oct 7 was going to upend the Mid East’s tenuous state. What wasn’t clear was how. What we’re seeing in Syria is perhaps just the start of the ripple effects of Israel’s wars. Momentum has shifted—but we’re a long way from a definitive reset.

@hurstpublishers.bsky.social has 50% off books until 2 December and while this makes a sorry stocking stuffer, you'll at least be able to bring holiday cheer to your favorite nerd: www.hurstpublishers.com/category/rea...

Some exciting news from @economist.com. All American service members—all 1.3m active duty, and those retired—now have free access to The Economist's website, thanks to a deal with DoD. If I'm not mistaken, you can access it through DoD's library pages: www.dodmwrlibraries.org. Happy reading.

Trump’s focus on Iran will be tested. The Middle East has changed, Saudi and UAE have moved on, Palestine looms large, and Iran holds a weaker hand. Is that the recipe for war or could it portend a diplomatic opening? My latest engelsbergideas.com/notebook/tru...

Very cool initiative and a stellar advisory board

Be my colleague: come teach our Strategy and War course (tenure track, Ph.D. req) at Naval War College at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA: www.usajobs.gov/job/818578500

Trump’s focus on Iran will be tested. The Middle East has changed, Saudi and UAE have moved on, Palestine looms large, and Iran holds a weaker hand. Is that the recipe for war or could it portend a diplomatic opening? My latest engelsbergideas.com/notebook/tru...

Thrilled to announce my new book is finally out! Centered on the clashing agendas of the U.S. and Iran from 9/11 to the Gaza war, it examines how we got here, where it's all headed, & why the Middle East will remain vital to global geopolitics. www.amazon.com/Wars-Ambitio...

Had a great discussion with The Pivot podcast regarding all things IRGC, Iran and its proxies’ response to the Gaza war, Iran’s strategy vis-a-vis the US, and where conflict in the Middle East is heading

Iran uses missile strikes to signal strength, but they also betray its strategic limitations. Provocative acts can achieve only so much. And unless Iran seeks to tempt war, it’s running out of tools. My latest: