Trump is never subtle or vague about his intentions. The key question for him always is whether he can get the Republican Party to ram them through into reality. He’s done pretty well over the last 10 years so why stop now.

Glad to see this argument move beyond political theory and be voiced by more empirical political scientists as well

Isn’t a helipad just a cement/asphalt circle with an H painted on it? That costs $5 million somehow?

imagine trying "I know I've been gone four months but I'll explain when I'm back" if you were a shift worker at Arby's

To be an Iranians, man… The trauma never stops.

In response to Trump's apologists, note that U.S. fuel costs of the Iran war alone (due to higher-priced gasoline and diesel) surpass $62.6 billion today, enough to fund NASA, the EPA, CDC, FDA, National Park Service AND Dept of Commerce for an entire year. "Winning"? iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu

Not enough commentary about how much money he wastes on bad ideas he’s late to www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/t...

After 107 days of hostilities, the war in Iran has settled into a stalemate—the “least admired of diplomatic outcomes,” writes @hbanai.bsky.social. “Still, this result doesn’t need to be a defeat for the United States.”

New in @foreignaffairs.com : PWH Non-Resident Senior Advisor @hbanai.bsky.social weighs in on the U.S.-Iran cease-fire. Read his analysis here: www.foreignaffairs.com/war-iran/whe...

I’m on a flight back from an academic workshop in Italy, where the widespread sentiment was that Meloni - along with many other European anti-liberal populists - is waking up to the reality that Trump is so much more devious than just an ally in bigotry and cruelty towards migrants

This is so goddamn embarrassing.

This war was the culmination of a counterfeit narrative he circulated in a way that neither GOP hawks nor Netanyahu could do on their own. Will he pay any price for it? I'm not sure; but many others already have and will continue to, in blood and treasure. open.substack.com/pub/hedgeofs...

CNN correctly reports “The signing of a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran is expected to kick off 60 more days of negotiation on ending the war.” www.cnn.com/2026/06/14/w...

The bundle of deranged psychological impulse, vulgar con artistry, delusional expectations, and empty threats that led to this misbegotten war - the whole thing packaged in one post.

🔥 SEN. @ossoff.senate.gov: “This war in Iran is the worst foreign policy blunder since Iraq. And just like the Iraq war, it’s a war built on lies. The ‘America first’ President who said he would end foreign wars, now he says all we can afford is war.”

Well, there goes my summer 🥴

Literally did a TV interview about his “Iran will be hit very hard” post 40 minutes ago in which I said “Let’s not put too much stock into what he says because he may well say the exact opposite today”… like clockwork!

Back in April, I argued in @foreignaffairs.com that US and Israel have different motives on Iran. They're rendered all the more unmanageable by Trump's wish to be seen as dictating terms. More than anything, this is the gamble that didn't pay off for Bibi. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/america...

Marjane Satrapi has left. AFP quoted a "member of her close circle" as saying she had "died of sadness a little over a year after the death of Mattias Ripa, her husband and the love of her life." Absolutely devastating loss of a brilliant artist and brave soul. Her art remains.

Very well put. Very saddened by this news. He was a remarkably kind, generous, and sweet person

What's really astonishing is not the far right authoritarian party doing this, but the near-total lack of <loud public collective action> by university chancellors & presidents to oppose this existential crisis. Almost impossible to overstate how total a failure of leadership this is.

‘The illicit flows of money, “between 2 and 5 per cent of everything”, are such an important phenomenon in the contemporary global order that our current state of ignorance is indefensible.’ John Lanchester on money laundering. www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...

Pro tip: anytime Ahmadinejad’s name is mentioned, know that he’s not the real story

Well, this is the end of Ahmadinejad now… www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/u...

I am thrilled for this to come out. At @liberalcurrents.com, I work through what I had to understand about how I ended up standing where I was as the postliberal moment emerged, and I try to show the way that I found forward. It's for everyone who is where I was and needs a hand extended.

Sure… right… ok… Spoiler alert: this so-called “sizable share” will back a Republican of whatever approach over a Democrat 9.9/10 times.

If I've learned one thing from the 'crises of democracy' literature over the past decade it is that hyper-partisan support for the most obvious policy failures (e.g. the Iran war here) augurs a dark future for the democracy in question. This cult won't concede in Nov. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/u...

Excellent work on the intersection of sanctions and corruption

If you happen to be around Stanford today and are interested in helping me think through my current book project, please stop by!

One of my favorite pods in a while! First @arashtehran.bsky.social on What Iran Wants, the latest in the negotiations, & apocalypsemaxxing. Then @jodikantor.bsky.social on SCOTUS, #MeToo revisited, & advice for those starting or reinventing their careers. Enjoy! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...

I also chuckled, because I know the etymology of "checkmate" (Persian: "shah mat")

Trump wants to end this war when no one's looking because the final terms of any deal are bound to be a huge win for the IRI. This indefinite framework for talks is the beginning of the end of the war.

this is better than a resumption of bombing. but now there's no defined end to this war. the gambit of a US blockade hasn't worked. the best of the bad options now might be some informal agreement to reopen Hormuz and push other issues to the future, though a deal with Trump may never be possible

I had kind of hoped that this worry of mine had passed by now. Alas, we're still in the danger zone.

Might Iran emerge from the war stronger than before? It’s possible, says Hussein Banai, and 180° opposite of what the Trump administration intended. Full episode below: https://historyasithappens.libsyn.com/eyewitness-to-annihilation

“The bullshitter is neither on the side of the true or the side of the false. His eye is not on the facts at all. He does not reject the authority of the truth, as the liar does, and oppose himself to it. He pays no attention to it at all.“ — Harry Frankfurt

Trump is stuck between reality and his narrative of that reality, I told The Hill: thehill.com/homenews/adm...

My piece in New Lines Magazine last week got the attention of the opinion editor at The Japan Times, who thought the commentary on Trump's escalatory rhetoric spoke directly to the memory of collective punishment in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2...

💯👇

Trump is running an interesting experiment in how many self-identified Christian Americans have actual religious commitments and how many are just into it because it provides a means for the socially defensible expression of bigotry bsky.app/profile/bria...

Has there been a more singularly embarrassing set of foreign visits by a sitting US Vice President in recent memory than Vance’s itinerary from this past week?

Always a good use of time to read @hbanai.bsky.social , especially when he’s writing about Iran. Clear, incisive analysis of why the U.S. and Israeli goals in this war of choice are incompatible.

Excellent article by Hussein Banai — a must read. 👇 1/ "A leader who entered a war he did not understand, in pursuit of objectives he had not reconciled, and who now confronts a situation ... newlinesmag.com/argument/the...

When it comes to Iran, the United States and Israel are pulling in different directions, writes Hussein Banai. And this gap between the two partners’ goals has convinced Tehran “that its enemies’ partnership will not hold, with or without a cease-fire.”

If you’re not following @hbanai.bsky.social for Iran analysis, you should be.

My essay in Foreign Affairs on how diverging views and aims rendered the US-Israel war against Iran incoherent from the start and allowed the regime in Tehran exploit it to prolong its survival. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/america...

"These two theories of the case are not complementary. They pull in opposite directions, and the tension between them has produced a campaign that is operationally coordinated but strategically adrift," writes @hbanai.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com. Read: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/america...

Trump backed down (good), but this is a win for Iran. Legitimates Iran’s control of the strait. He chose humiliation over escalation. For now. Or until he realizes he chose humiliation. cc @dandrezner.bsky.social

I don’t care how this came about because my family members in Iran get to live on. I feel like a crew member aboard USS Alabama in Crimson Tide.

Huuuuuuge sigh of relief at the end of a very long and stressful day.