🔎 New #IISS episode of "The Arms Control Primer": “Better know a non-nuke: Germany”. Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social talks with Prof Marina Henke& Dr Lutsch Andreas about Germany’s nuclear path, NATO sharing, the NPT & today’s deterrence debate amid Russia’s war. 🎧 tinyurl.com/3b9xezvz

South Africa is the only state to have built and then fully dismantled a nuclear arsenal. In the latest episode of The Arms Control Primer (#IISS), @bollfrass.bsky.social, Anna-Mart van Wyk and Robin Möser explore how and why it happened. Listen: tinyurl.com/3n44fdbu

Today in 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis formally began when President John F. Kennedy was briefed on photographs from an October 14 U-2 overflight—analyzed at the National Photographic Interpretation Center on October 15—showing clear evidence of Soviet medium-range ballistic missiles on the island.

I was a guest on the IISS podcast "The Arms Control Primer" w/ @bollfrass.bsky.social & former @iaeaorg.bsky.social DG Hans Blix. We covered some lessons of the Iraq case for nuclear nonproliferation & verification. Check out the new episode: www.iiss.org/podcasts/arm...

🚨 NEW SEASON 🚨 🎙️ Season 5 of The Arms Control Primer by #IISS kicks off! Host @bollfrass.bsky.social with Dr. Nicole Grajewski & Dr. Azadeh Zamirirad unpack #Iran’s nuclear programme—from the Shah to the JCPOA, the 2025 Israel–Iran conflict & what’s next. 🔗 go.iiss.org/4mDZYuV

We’ve become basically desensitised to successive record breaking air attacks by Russia against Ukraine. “Russia launched almost 500 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight, Ukrainian forces said on Monday.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/w...

French ambassador issues explicit nuclear security to NATO allies: “Our French vital interests also include the interests of our allies. In that perspective, the nuclear umbrella also applies to our allies and of course Sweden is among them.” www.svt.se/nyheter/loka...

🎧 The concluding episode of #IISS #TheArmsControlPoseur is here: Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social & Zuzanna Gwadera reflect on nuclear strategy, global risk dynamics & the future of #ArmsControl. Catch the highlights from Season 4👇 🔗 tinyurl.com/wzu6ap6d #NonProliferation #EUNPDC

I'm thrilled that this @lawfaremedia.org piece is out! I trace how Mexico has tried to use international law to delegitimize a unilateral U.S. deployment of troops in Mexican territory vs cartels. I focus particularly on Mexico's rejection of the "unwilling or unable" doctrine of self-defense.

🎧 Tune in to the latest episode of #TheArmsControlPoseur by #IISS featuring Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @dbsalisbury.bsky.social & @nktpnd.bsky.social on North Korea’s nuclear posture & what’s next for diplomacy. 🧵👇 🔗 tinyurl.com/2ja3b34z #EUNPDC #NonProliferation #ArmsControl

"A cyber no first use agreement between India and Pakistan would serve as a foundational arms control measure [...]" 🎧 Listen to the latest #IISS podcast on #Pakistan with Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social, Dr @rabsaa.bsky.social & Dr @mansoorahmed.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/4tvbufsp #EUNPDC #ArmsControl

Host Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social is joined by experts Dr @rabsaa.bsky.social & Dr @mansoorahmed.bsky.social Together they explore Pakistan’s nuclear history, evolving doctrine & the future of #ArmsControl in South Asia. ➡️https://tinyurl.com/4tvbufsp #EUNPDC #NonProliferation

If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

With host Dr @bollfrass.bsky.social & experts Dr Manpreet Sethi and Dr Jayita Sarkar. 🎧 Listen the full episode here ➡️ tinyurl.com/y45ewt5a

New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me. We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma. Access the full piece via this link: www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europ... Short summary below: 1/x

I wrote on some modelling & simulation looking at how climate change might affect anti-submarine warfare. On worst-case assumptions of change: “In the Bay of Biscay, off the French coast, a sub that could once be detected from 60km away will be spotted only at 20km” www.economist.com/science-and-...

What shaped India’s #NuclearWeapons programme, and what risks remain in South Asia’s strategic landscape? In the latest #IISS podcast #TheArmsControlPoseur, @bollfrass.bsky.social speaks with experts Dr Manpreet Sethi and Dr Jayita Sarkar. 🎧 🔗 tinyurl.com/y45ewt5a #EUNPDC #India

🎧 Tune into the latest #IISS podcast, where host Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social is joined by leading nuclear policy expert Dr. Or Rabinowitz for an in-depth discussion on the history, strategic logic, and future of Israel’s nuclear programme. tinyurl.com/ze9rjzp2 #EUNPDC #NonProliferation

🎙️New podcast episode: How is China’s nuclear posture evolving? In IISS’s #TheArmsControlPoseur, host @bollfrass.bsky.social talks with Dr Jingdong Yuan, Dr @tongzhao.bsky.social & Dr @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social on China’s nuclear expansion & its global impact. 🔗 Listen now: tinyurl.com/mr2acmx6

🎙 New episode of the #ArmsControlPoseur Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social speaks w/@hfayet.bsky.social, Emmanuelle Maitre & Dr. @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social on France's #nuclear arsenal: its history, strategy & role in #EuropeanSecurity. 🎧 Listen now: 🔗 tinyurl.com/yc75dvmz #ArmsControl #NonProliferation

Important reminder: long-range precision munitions are useless without accurate and real time targeting data - the geolocation of static targets or the tracking of mobile targets. We will see what it means in detail, definitively is going to shrink Ukraine capacity to fight.

Bad, bad news. Unnecessary, punitive, vindictive. "The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces, according to officials familiar with the matter." www.ft.com/content/c58f...

🎙️ NEW PODCAST: In this episode of The Arms Control Poseur from IISS, Dr. @bollfrass.bsky.social, @lydiawachs.bsky.social & @baklitskiy.bsky.social discuss how Russia’s nuclear arsenal has evolved from the Soviet era & what #Armscontrol means for global security today. 🎧 Listen : tinyurl.com/59bkpxsf

New podcast🚀 @baklitskiy.bsky.social & I join @bollfrass.bsky.social on IISS' 'The Arms Control Poseur' podcast to discuss the evolution of #Russia's #nuclear arsenal, arms racing & arms control⬇️ open.spotify.com/episode/6uYh...

Let’s be honest. Does anyone think that this president would honour Article Five? Presence of US military & nuclear sharing still has value to Europe, but its deterrent value is significantly reduced & falling. This is reckless, dangerous behaviour by the Trump administration.

Russian defence spending exceeds all of Europe combined, study finds https://www.ft.com/content/93d44b5a-a087-4059-9891-f18c77efca4b

My piece with Or Rabinowitz in Foreign Affairs on Russia-Iran-Israel dynamics, Russia’s support for Iran’s nuclear program, and the options for US policy going forward www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/will-...

I am fairly pleased with this table that I cobbled together for a guest lecture next week on the different narratives about the use of the atomic bomb in World War II, and creating an example of ways in which they can be compared to each other in an overarching way.

Great to share my latest historical piece for @nknewsorg.bsky.social — the story of how the DPRK used its embassy in East Berlin to illicitly procure 86 Hughes Helicopters in the mid-1980s. www.nknews.org/2024/11/how-...

A „[European] tripwire force would amount to an Article 5 guarantee by another name. Countries should not offer such a promise to Ukraine unless they are ready to honour it—as walking away under Russian fire would undermine them as members of NATO, too, perhaps fatally.“

“Russia hit critical electricity transmission facilities linked to nuclear power plants during its latest assault on Ukraine’s power grid on Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported. It was the third such attack in roughly as many months” www.nytimes.com/2024/11/29/w...

I wrote about yesterday’s Russian missile strike on Ukraine, what Putin might have been trying to signal by using a “new” intermediate-range missile with multiple warheads, and how seriously to take that signal. www.economist.com/europe/2024/...

Russia issued a new nuclear policy document. Here is an illustration of the changes between the 2020 and 2024 texts relating to the conditions under which Russia might use nuclear weapons. I think its old wine in a new bottle.

Declassified image of a Hexagon reconnaissance satellite film capsule that plunged 16,000 feet into the ocean depths in 1971. The Navy then sent down a deep sea submersible to recover it to ensure the Soviets didn’t get to it first.

In a new piece for @bindinghook.bsky.social, I wrote about EU and NATO cyber rapid response teams and the structural and governance challenges they face bindinghook.com/articles-bin...

Imagery from military simulation games have become a misinformation scourge. @kjallen.bsky.social has ideas for mitigating the problem bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

A new piece I wrote for @bindinghook.bsky.social exploring the online trend of misinformation emerging from military simulation games. bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

From 'Poor Man's Air Force' to Defensive Dominance, dive into the evolution of military tactics with Mauro Gilli and Niklas Masuhr. bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

Monica Kello explores the cultural forces driving Russia's foreign cyber operations bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

In a new piece for @bindinghook.bsky.social I argue that Russia’s foreign cyber operations are driven by its strategic culture, which responses to them should consider. bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

Claude Shannon’s Information Theory has always had its limits. Decades later, on the cusp of generative AI, his warnings ring true. Read more in a new piece for @bindinghook.bsky.social from @gavinwilde.bsky.social bindinghook.com/articles-bin...

The brilliant @gavinwilde.bsky.social on information theory and LLMs for @bindinghook.bsky.social bindinghook.com/articles-bin...

Check out the Binding Hook hoppy holidays guide to technology-themed beers for the season’s pour decisions by @dbsalisbury.bsky.social bindinghook.com/articles-bin...

In a new article, Mauro Vignati explores a troubling trend: civilians taking part in armed conflicts through digital means. bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

@maxwsmeets.bsky.social explains that to truly measure sophistication, we need to look past the technical and consider the broader elements of cyber operations bindinghook.com/articles-bin...

What do you find when you look at the *types* of nuclear weapons in the world? 🚀 Absolutely thrilled today to launch with my CSR colleagues the Nuclear Weapons Systems Project—a dataset & tracker of every type of nuclear weapon ever deployed by the P5. councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/11/29/i...

Important reminder by @runasand.bsky.social - even though we've known about the dangers of spyware for years, little is being done to stop their spread. @bindinghook.bsky.social bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

“Similar to controlling roads and access to electricity, controlling a country’s digital networks allows conflict parties to signal their capabilities and claim to be the designated ruler,” argues @argohdes.bsky.social in a new piece for Binding Hook bindinghook.com/articles-hoo...

“The cybersecurity field overemphasises the security of states and underemphasises how it affects people, especially those most marginalised,” argues Anubha Gupta bindinghook.com/articles-bin...