Thanks @lanoszka.bsky.social for the kind words, and for reminding me to engage in SELF PROMOTION ☝️ Russian ☢️-deployments to Belarus are driven by 🇷🇺 interests: preventing interference in 🇧🇾 and using them as a lever against NATO. At least, that is what I deduce from the limited evidence available.

🚨 How & why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? My article on the spread of delivery vehicles is out at Security Studies! #OpenAccess It explains: - Why the NPT allows nuclear delivery vehicles to spread - How did India acquire its #nuclear delivery technology tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday: 🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM?? 🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader? ✈️ air-launched ballistic missile? 🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:

🚨 It’s publication day! THE ART OF COERCION is finally out. When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough. Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.” shorturl.at/qa4T5

Why did Margaret Thatcher oppose German reunification 35 years ago? Yes, she disliked the Germans - but her deeper fear was socialism creeping into Britain through the Brussels backdoor, driven by an increasingly dominant Germany. Probably my best research. Let me know if you’d like a copy.

Vipin and I wrote a new piece for Foreign Affairs, called "How to Survive the New Nuclear Age". Gift link below.

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated last night, was the Speaker of the Minnesota House in the 2023-2024 session, when Democrats ran the state government. That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.

The Israelis are calling this a "preemptive" strike. Whether you agree or disagree with this attack, these are not - from what we know tonight - "preemptive" strikes. The Israelis are using that word for a reason. Read on. /1

🚨The UK Nuclear Deterrence Network's Deterrence Futures Fellowship is now open for applications. Join the conversation on the evolving nature of deterrence in today's complex security landscape. For more details visit our website: bit.ly/4mWPE2F

Without the U.S. nuclear backstop, Europe would be best served by prioritizing nonproliferation and credible deterrence—and accepting a level of strategic instability in Europe-Russian relations, write @marksbell.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists republished my remembrance of Dick Garwin. thebulletin.org/2025/05/h-bo...

My initial impression: Macron is saying he wants France to have an extended nuclear deterrence policy, but without doing anything costly to make such an extended deterrent commitment credible to allies and adversaries. Which... isn't going to work.

Very pleased to have this research note in ISQ! It finds that unconditional signals of U.S. abandonment, and to a lesser extent conditional U.S. threats of abandonment and increased alliance burden-sharing, modestly increase support for nuclear weapons. But effect sizes are fairly small overall.

Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>

Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.

"It's the difference between a kayak and a battleship" -- why building a Golden Dome over the US would be so much harder than Israel's Iron Dome. Leave it to @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social to come up with the striking simile. I belatedly came across the NPR article. www.npr.org/2025/04/22/g...

I’ve been honored to serve as the @apsa.bsky.social rep on the committee (a role mandated by Congress) since 2020 + to have chaired the committee since 2021. Congress understood in creating its 1991 statute governing our work the importance of “thorough, accurate, and reliable” accounts of the past

Unhappy to confirm that the entire Historical Advisory Committee at the State Department received termination notices this afternoon (myself included). The HAC, set up by Congress, oversees the office that produces the FRUS series. history.state.gov/about/hac/in... 1/

American politics powerhouse and professor Kathryn Pearson @kpminnesota.bsky.social has been named @umncla.bsky.social's 2025 Dean's Medalist. Learn how she came to specialize in American politics, her current research, and her approach to teaching: cla.umn.edu/news-events/...

I'm excited to share that my book, Rebels in the Field, will be coming out with Oxford University Press this summer. The book focuses on the military processes involved in deploying force in substate conflicts.

Good explainer from @wired.com on long-term plans globally to store used nuclear fuel in deep geological repositories.👇 Finland's is just about ready to go, with Sweden, France, Switzerland, Canada and others advancing similar projects. #NukeSky 🔌💡

🚨 New initiative alert! We're launching a $10.2M collaborative fund to reduce nuclear dangers. Learn more about the consortium, grant opportunity, and why now is the time for #philanthropy to step up. carnegie.io/3GmKDj2

Fascinating new @tnsr.org article by @jjjcameron.bsky.social about history of US/Soviet arms control but also about the broader concept of strategic stability and how it gets invoked and used politically

Taking place tomorrow. Still time to sign up, if you are interested.

Delighted to participate in an @h-diplo.bsky.social roundtable on James Lebovic's important OUP book The False Promise of Superiority, alongside insightful contributions from @paulcavey.bsky.social @mariarostrublee.bsky.social @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/RJI...

Next week Tuesday, 22 April, from 15:00–16:00 CET (09:00–10:00 ET), @marksbell.bsky.social and I will be presenting our ongoing research on European nuclear deterrence in the post-American nuclear age as part of an ONP Seminar. Sign-up link below. www.sv.uio.no/isv/english/... 1/2

In the last couple of years I've become increasingly worried India is not doing enough to deter China and to prepare to defeat China in a war if deterrence fails. I present my concerns in a new journal article out today in the Journal of Strategic Studies. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Happy to talk with @warontherocks.bsky.social's Rick Landgraf about my recent article on an Anglo-French Eurodeterrent: warontherocks.com/2025/03/euro...

Join us for our upcoming online ONP Seminar on the future of European nuclear deterrence. @marksbell.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social will present their research on this topic, followed by a moderated discussion with the audience. www.sv.uio.no/isv/english/... Sign-up link below.

Fascinating podcast by @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social and Vipin Narang, discussing prospects for a Eurodeterrent and their experiences as nuclear policy officials in the Biden administration.

This is one of the more sensible assessments of the challenges facing Europe as they consider their options for deterring Russia without relying on the US nuclear umbrella. There are no good options. Relying on French and/or British nukes as a substitute for US is fraught with challenges.

Thought provoking piece on the future of nuclear deterrent in Europe and a trilemma of credible deterrence, nuclear stability and non-proliferation. I'd add a fourth complicating factor: Political trust, both in allied countries FR & UK as such, but also in their internal politics.

ONP Doctoral Research Fellow @frhoffmann.bsky.social, together with @marksbell.bsky.social, has published a new article in Foreign Affairs examining the implications of a U.S. withdrawal from the European continent for European nuclear deterrence.

In "Eurodeterrent: A Vision for an Anglo-French Nuclear Force," with @warontherocks.bsky.social, I argue that Europe needs its own nuclear umbrella and sketch out what it could look like. warontherocks.com/2025/03/euro...

Excellent analysis by @frhoffmann.bsky.social and @marksbell.bsky.social, also arguing for a Eurodeterrent.

To prepare for a future without U.S. protection, Europe will need to make painful tradeoffs, write @marksbell.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social. What is the continent’s least-bad option for ensuring its own security?

As the US pulls back from European relationships, Europe must seriously consider a future in which the US is no longer a guarantor of European security @marksbell.bsky.social and Fabian R. Hoffman write in new @foreignaffairs.com article www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europ...

New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me. We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma. Access the full piece via this link: www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europ... Short summary below: 1/x

New article in Journal of Strategic Studies on grand strategy and nuclear weapons: makes the case that grand strategic change is probably necessary for any major shift in how states think about the political utility of their nuclear weapons www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #NukeSky

Here's a great job opportunity for someone looking to make an impact in nuclear philanthropy www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/41...

My latest, with @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social and Vipin Narang, for @warontherocks.bsky.social: on why *even* an 'America First' approach to US statecraft benefits from limiting the spread of nuclear weapons, i.e., Trump should love nonproliferation warontherocks.com/2025/03/nucl...

My latest Substack post is online. I discuss Macron's proposal to extend France's nuclear umbrella over Europe. TLDR: Without significant adaptations, France will face severe credibility challenges. Access the post via this link: missilematters.substack.com/p/from-paris... Key points below. 1/8

Tusk did not announce a Polish nuclear weapons program, but he didn't rule it out either. Tusk seems to be opening a national debate in Poland on acquiring nuclear weapons. Aldo suggested he might be in favor. Google Translate caveats apply. wiadomosci.wp.pl/co-z-bronia-...

"Developing nuclear weapons to counter North Korea is not 'off the table' for South Korea, foreign minister Cho Tae-yul stated on Wednesday"

Not trying to alarm people but just noting that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, among their other important functions, is also one of the small number of people explicitly designated for translating Presidential nuclear strike orders into reality. www.doctrine.af.mil/Portals/61/d...

Was literally talking to a former senior UK MoD person involved in nuclear matters who was terrified Trump would figure out the Trident common pool could be leverage with Starmer—now this in the FT www.ft.com/content/762c...

Wouldn't be a strictly new or US-specific phenomenon: expansionism backed by nuclear weapons has underpinned US post-WWII grand strategy. Ch4 of my book makes the argument... www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Now recruiting ➡️ post-doctoral students, tenure track junior faculty, or doctoral students studying nuclear security. Spend a year working at RAND on policy-relevant research with the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program. Apply now by February 10: www.rand.org/jobs/stanton...