This might be the clearest example ever of media false equivalence ever where literally the entire leadership of the Republican Party, which currently controls every branch of the Federal government, insists Donald Trump was cheated in 2020 vs like four podcasters in a trenchcoat doing 2024 BlueAnon

These four types of political violence are all unacceptable. The right can’t frame this as a left-wing issue. It’s an American problem—one that affects all sides, but hits harder on the right

Available evidence suggests that Russia’s nuclear deployment to Belarus was primarily motivated by extended deterrence, but also by power projection to intimidate NATO & by desire for future arms control leverage - less by assurances, argues @alexsorg.bsky.social in The Nonproliferation Review 6/10

Thanks @lanoszka.bsky.social for the kind words, and for reminding me to engage in SELF PROMOTION ☝️ Russian ☢️-deployments to Belarus are driven by 🇷🇺 interests: preventing interference in 🇧🇾 and using them as a lever against NATO. At least, that is what I deduce from the limited evidence available.

It's not a big leap from the govt sending people to a death prison for having the wrong tattoo to blowing up 11 people that may or may not have had drugs on their boat.

In the context of debates on military capacities, this small research note uses the exact date of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an unexpected event during a survey to corroborate that willingness to fight rises with proximity to conflict (cf. doi.org/10.1017/eis.2025.12) Any feedback is welcome!

Israel is assassinating journalists

This is one of those moments when the hollowness of our democratic systems becomes visible to the public. Facts are verified, but deliberation is pure performance, and accountability is nowhere. The system absorbs truth without ever acting on it.

🤨🤨🤨

@gtconway.bsky.social So much for holding firm.

Die #rechtsextremen Minister der #israelischen Regierung werden in den deutschen Medien oft erwähnt, aber selten zitiert. So hört sich das an. Und es sag bitte keiner hinterher, dass man ja nichts wusste. Es ist bekannt und veröffentlicht, denn sie halten ja mit nichts hinter'm Berg. #Staatsräson

Es ist peinlich, dass die Union jetzt Macron kritisiert, statt endlich Druck gegenüber der israelischen Regierung aufzubauen. Erinnert mich daran, wie man jahrelang Macron kritisierte, weil er die strategische Autonomie Europas forderte, aus Angst, die USA zu verprellen.

"Without question I witnessed war crimes by the Israel Defence Forces, without a doubt. "Using artillery rounds, mortar rounds, firing tank rounds into unarmed civilians is a war crime.” youtube.com/watch?v=72aZ...

Just an all timer that captures this era of journalism. Imagine it applied to any other example of war crimes or ethnic cleansing in history.

the regularity of this makes it brutally clear it's the result of deliberate policy, something confirmed by Haaretz reporting - www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...

I don't think whether the US has single-warhead or MIRVed ICBMs is at the top of the list of concerns allies have about Washington's credibility right now.

The conditions that have led to what’s happening in the US today exist in democracies around the world. They are an inevitable outcome of our collective failure to adapt to fundamental changes in the information ecosystem on which our democracies were originally built.

I spoke with Deutsche Welle about 🇪🇺 willingness to fight. Two caveats: 1) What people say in surveys does not necessarily reflect how they would act 🪖 2) Many participants support defending their state if attacked - but do not support military missions abroad. www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqK0...

Happy Graduation 🎉🎉

Ciao Kakao as we say in Germany 👋

Unpopular opinion: Wenn zwei Atommächte sich in einen Krieg eskalieren sollte das mehr Aufmerksamkeit bekommen

There are - to be fair - plenty of better ways to spend your day than reading our article. But since most of you are just doomscrolling Bluesky anyway, you might as well give it a read ⬇️

More than happy to see this published. If you are interested in trends in citizens’ willingness to fight 🪖 and why they might occur: read below ⬇️

This article from 2000 entails a pretty decent description of current developments www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Very fortunate to be able to attend a fantastic panel including my amazing MTA colleague @rabsaa.bsky.social on “Limited Nuclear War” at the @carnegieendowment.org’s annual nuclear conference.

Heading to Carnegie’s #nukecon If anyone is around and wants to meet up, let me know ✌️

With long-standing alliances under strain, France’s nuclear capabilities are back in focus. warontherocks.com/episode/the-...

NYT outdoing itself once again

Have not heard from Attac in a while

The Heritage Foundation is correct here though. Time to bring back the Davy Crockett

The percentage of U.S. voters over the years who consider Canada and the EU to be ‘unfriendly’ or ‘an enemy’. It is very surprising that in less than a year so many Americans suddenly realized that Canadians and Europeans are their enemies.

The president of Princeton is standing up for academic freedom in the face of this onslaught: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv... The president of Harvard is not. Good for Princeton and its leadership. A bad day for Harvard, on many levels.

Shared responsibility? Read my latest on how 🇪🇺 nuclear use decisions could be coordinated in a Signal group chat ⬇️ warontherocks.com/2025/03/forc...

To be fair, I also coordinate with the boys in the group chat before taking any major decision (which movie to watch, does this shirt look good on me, should I buy iPhone 16e)

☢️ In a new European survey, more than 60 percent of respondents agree that “France's nuclear deterrent must be extended to all members of the European Union” #nukesky legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...

Macron has just announced that the 🇫🇷 Luxeuil airbase B116 will by 2035 host the ASN4G, the 🇫🇷 nuclear deterrent’s future airborne hypersonic missile, as well as two squadrons of the future F5-standard Rafale fighter jet He announced this on his way to Germany, and on the day Trump talks to Putin

This move should be called "Allied Gambit". Step 1: Vaguely hint at developing nuclear weapons. Step 2: Ask for US nuclear deployments. A classic.

„His vision“ 🤨 How about „his completely unacceptable, unprecedented and illegal plans“??

Fun fact: This is how any nuclear use decision will be taken

So much for "insulting Zelenskyy will backfire on Trump" 🥴

French nuclear deterrent slowly taking shape.

Deep down the French are loving every single moment of this

It is pretty well known that Joe Rogan spreads all kinds of misinformation, but this just seems quite evil. JR *high pitched voice*: "He is starving mothers. There is mothers that cannot get food. Thats all you are hearing." (35:25)

Hedging ist eine interessante Strategie, für mich fehlt aber der Beweis, dass es eine abschreckende Wirkung erzeugt. Im Gegenteil: Die erfolgreichsten Hedging-Fälle funktionierten, weil die Abschreckung anderweitig garantiert wird. In 5 Punkten ⬇️

Macron clearly states once again that he is willing to talk about the European dimension of French nuclear weapons. The French President will remain the sole authority to use nuclear weapons: No surprise, but also in no way an obstacle to expand the role of French nuclear weapons.

Zelenskyy übt sich in Schadensbegrenzung: "Wir können nur bedauern was im Weissen Haus passiert ist" ➡️ Mich erstaunt wie viele Beobachter:innen seinen Auftritt am Freitag nicht als (sehr nachvollziehbaren) Fehltritt wahrgenommen haben. www.youtube.com/watch?v=90Jo...