What did North Korea learn from the Soviet Union's collapse? @dubstepindprk.bsky.social argues that they never bought the idea that economic reform leads to stability. The Kim regime chose patrimonialism and ideological control instead. That choice has defined North Korean statecraft ever since.

What did North Korea take from the Soviet collapse? Benjamin R. Young argues Pyongyang drew one conclusion above all: strengthen ideological control and build nuclear weapons. Read now: tnsr.org/2026/07/savi... @dubstepindprk.bsky.social #NorthKorea #NuclearWeapons #NationalSecurity

How do global conflicts reshape Beijing’s cross-strait strategy? Mike Kuiken explains how the PLA is analyzing military quagmires in Ukraine and Iran. He argues that these insights are prompting Chinese planners to comprehensively refresh their approach to a 2027 Taiwan scenario.

The UAE signed an agreement to fly a lunar rover on China's Chang'e 7 this August. Then US ITAR restrictions forced it to withdraw. Hines, Rubin & Alagirova argue that moment captures something larger: American export controls are closing doors that China is walking through.

How has the US-China Commission shaped strategy over 25 years? Randall Schriver and Mike Kuiken break down the 2027 Taiwan timeline, tech competition, and over-the-horizon risks. tnsr.org/2026/07/25-y... #China #NationalSecurity #Taiwan @iips.bsky.social | @hooverinstitution.bsky.social

China's Chang'e 7 mission launches this August, targeting the lunar south pole and carrying payloads from six international partners. Egypt is one of them. In our new issue, Hines, Rubin & Alagirova map China's expanding space diplomacy across the Middle East and find a deliberate strategy.

A hit-and-run playbook leaves undersea cable networks highly vulnerable to gray-zone aggression. How can the international community respond? In our new article, @charlesmok.bsky.social argues that democracies must unite to protect this vital infrastructure.

Based on this @tnsr.org article, also by @ebrewer.bsky.social. tnsr.org/2026/06/what...

Undersea cable networks carry up to 99 percent of intercontinental data transmission, but they are increasingly vulnerable to gray-zone sabotage at critical chokepoints. In our newest article, @charlesmok.bsky.social outlines a targeted framework for global collaboration.

Has degrading Iran's nuclear program actually made the region less safe? @ebrewer.bsky.social argues that previous restraint—like avoiding attacks on the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf energy targets—was driven by fear of retaliatory strikes. Now that those strikes have occurred, Iran has less to fear.

How fragile are our moral boundaries during a high-stakes crisis? @pslovic.bsky.social et al. demonstrate that when forced to evaluate competing tragedies side-by-side, what was once considered completely unthinkable can quickly become accepted as a "lesser evil."

With the US and Iran negotiating a roadmap to end the recent war, Tehran’s nuclear program is once again at the forefront of global security. What role does nuclear latency play in regional stability?

Our latest article challenges classical deterrence theory by exploring the limits of human rationality. @pslovic.bsky.social et al. argue that deep-seated cognitive biases, including psychic numbing and the affect heuristic, systematically distort high-stakes decisions regarding nuclear escalation.

Did Western military dominance inadvertently accelerate Iran’s nuclear ambitions? In our latest, @ebrewer.bsky.social examines the dangerous escalation cycle between the United States, Israel, and Iran. He argues that conventional superiority drove Tehran to advance its nuclear program . . .

What are the strategic trade-offs of nuclear hedging? @ebrewer.bsky.social examines Iran’s nuclear program from 2023–25 and argues that instead of providing a net advantage, Iran’s threshold status became a critical vulnerability that invited conventional attacks and degraded its security.

In our new podcast episode, Herb Lin argues that unproven military tech lets policymakers gloss over operational flaws. It offers a convenient narrative to promise casualty reduction and simulate responsive action in unfavorable scenarios.

Why are policymakers consistently drawn to the promise of revolutionary military tech despite repeated acquisition failures? Herb Lin reveals the persistent traps of technological overmatch, from "fallacy of the last move" thinking to the distinct architectural nature of AI.

Geography is about more than just resources or strategic chokepoints. In our upcoming issue, Francis J. Gavin, the chair of our editorial board, argues that place fundamentally shapes identity and political realities.

In the opening essay to our upcoming issue, Francis J. Gavin argues that modern geopolitics has expanded into the planetary commons, cyber, and space. Yet, traditional physical geography and a deep sense of place still fundamentally shape international conflict.

Following recent talks in Beijing, "strategic stability" is the formulation of the moment in US-China relations. But how does this diplomatic shorthand map onto reality? In our latest issue, authors argue that achieving true strategic stability is harder today than ever.

On our latest podcast episode, Jackie Schneider (@jackieschneider.bsky.social) argues that analogies comparing cyber threats to Pearl Harbor or 9/11 is irresponsible. Instead, her research shows how the centralization of nuclear networks directly impacts their vulnerability.

On our latest podcast episode, Dr. Jackie Schneider (@jackieschneider.bsky.social) challenges common assumptions about the cyber-nuclear nexus. Moving beyond Hollywood scenarios, she applies percolation theory to show how network centralization impacts vulnerability.

Michael Horowitz (@mchorowitz.bsky.social) challenges the narrative that military AI is moving too fast. He argues that the Pentagon is actually too slow to scale proven technologies. Rather than fearing experimental prototypes, he contends it is time to "hit the accelerator."

In our latest podcast episode, @mchorowitz.bsky.social argues that psychology and organizational behavior will shape how AI conditions nuclear risk. Early adoption in nuclear command could be destabilizing, but understanding the technology over time may improve strategic stability.

These days, most of my reading takes place digitally, but it’s always a great feeling to hold in your hands a physical copy of something you contributed to. Thank you to @tnsr.org for publishing Herb Lin and my co-edited round table on emerging technologies and strategic stability.

Using a system is not the same as understanding it. Rose McDermott (@watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social) examines how this gap shapes expectations for AI, hypersonics, and WMDs. Listen to the full conversation: tnsr.org/2026/04/psyc... #Security #EmergingTech #Defense

Cameron Tracy (@cltracy.bsky.social) reflects on the Reagan administration's Strategic Defense Initiative. He argues that investing billions in unproven directed energy weapons comes with a massive opportunity cost. Are we repeating these 40-year-old mistakes today?

We chat with Cameron Tracy (@cltracy.bsky.social) to discuss his article on precision-strike weapons in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Tracy argues that after initial technological hype, new systems quickly undergo "normalization" through use. Why does military adaptation matter more than anticipation?

The "loyalty over competence" trap. Rose McDermott (@watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social) explains how personalist dictatorships suffer from a lack of institutional constraints and a surplus of sycophants—leading to flawed advice and strategic failure.

Can "Type 1" intuitive thinking lead to nuclear catastrophe? We explore the intersection of political psychology and deterrence with Rose McDermott (@watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social). She argues that cognitive shortcuts and evolutionary mismatches pose a grave risk to global security.

The entirety of our Strategic Stability Special Issue is now live! In it, we bring together leading experts to examine how rapid technological change and global shifts are challenging the search for international peace. 🧵 #StrategicStability #NationalSecurity #Defense

Can emerging technologies reduce pressure in nuclear crises? @htrinkunas.bsky.social of @stanfordcisac.bsky.social examines whether improved information and analysis can give leaders more time to think deliberately before acting. Listen to the full episode at: tnsr.org/2026/03/stra...

Herbert Lin identifies psychological, cultural, and organizational factors that drive optimism about emerging military technologies. Read more via @tnsr.org ⤵️

Despite immense capability, the US military often exhibits "unreasonable optimism" toward new tech. Herbert S. Lin examines the psychological and cultural drivers behind overestimating short-term innovation in the last contribution to our Strategic Stability Roundtable.

Our Roundtable concludes with Herbert S. Lin of @stanfordcisac.bsky.social and @hooverinstitution.bsky.social exploring the over-optimism surrounding emerging military tech. He covers the psychological, cultural, and organizational drivers that often lead to overestimated short-term impacts.

How are new precision-strike weapons changing the battlefield in Ukraine? Cameron L. Tracy (@cltracy.bsky.social) explores why we should expect technological incorporation rather than total disruption. He challenges the narrative of a revolution in military affairs.

From unmanned vehicles to AI, emerging tech is reshaping the battlefield in Ukraine. Francis J. Gavin discusses whether these systems create new crises—and if we can learn from how the US and Soviets managed the nuclear age.

We are joined by Francis J. Gavin to discuss the enduring—and often contradictory—legacy of Thomas Schelling. Gavin argues that to navigate today's emerging technologies, we must move past technological determinism and put politics first.

What does Ukraine teach us about future conflict in the Indo-Pacific? Eyck Freymann explains why unmanned systems, counter-drone capabilities, and coordinated allied production will shape competition with China—and why scale across the drone supply chain is critical.

Congrats to Francis J. Gavin, chair of the TNSR editorial board, on winning the Gelber Prize for the world’s best non-fiction book in English on foreign affairs!

Expectations for new weapons often misalign with their performance. In our Strategic Stability Roundtable, Cameron L. Tracy of @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social analyzes how the debut of Russian hypersonic missiles and glide bombs leads to "normalization" through use.

Does cyber entanglement stabilize or destabilize nuclear dyads? In our latest Strategic Stability Roundtable, Jacquelyn Schneider (@jackieschneider.bsky.social) argues that current theories on digital risk are rife with contradictions and offers a new framework based on network architecture.

Do Cold War-era assumptions about arms control still hold true in our world of emerging technologies? @htrinkunas.bsky.social of @stanfordcisac.bsky.social joins the @tnsr.org podcast to discuss how AI, cyber, and hypersonics are changing the landscape of deterrence: ow.ly/uKuQ50Yx0pN

Jacquelyn Schneider (@jackieschneider.bsky.social) examines the digital transformation of nuclear forces, arguing that network structure—not just the code—determines cyber risk in our latest Strategic Stability Roundtable entry. | @hooverinstitution.bsky.social

Harold Trinkunas (@htrinkunas.bsky.social) argues uncertainty from emerging tech triggers dangerous “fast thinking” in crises. Relying on gut instinct in unfamiliar situations risks nuclear escalation. Listen more: tnsr.org/2026/03/stra... @stanfordcisac.bsky.social #NationalSecurity #Deterrence

Does rationality still anchor nuclear deterrence? In our new Roundtable, Rose McDermott (@watsonschoolbrown.bsky.social) argues that human biases and emerging tech undermine strategic stability. She warns that personalist leaders amplify these risks.

In our latest episode, Harold Trinkunas (@stanfordcisac.bsky.social) previews our upcoming issue by arguing that Cold War-era assumptions about strategic stability no longer hold. From AI to cyber operations, emerging technologies are fundamentally altering the global nuclear landscape.

Terrific piece by two-time CASBS fellow Rose McDermott is worth your time!

Strategic stability depends on more than just hardware; it rests on the assumption of human rationality. In our latest Roundtable, Rose McDermott (@brown.edu) argues that psychological biases and personalist regimes can undermine the very foundations of nuclear deterrence.

Journalist @melissakchan.bsky.social discusses why she turned to dystopian storytelling in "You Must Take Part in Revolution: A Graphic Novel," created with activist artist @badiucao.bsky.social. The story examines surveillance, resistance, and a future conflict over Taiwan.