The US may be using threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities to get Iran to the negotiating table. Will it work? I can't credibly answer that. But I can tell you the factors that influence whether this type of threat works. There's 3 conditions for success, based on my research. 1/

🧵IR scholars, let's start a thread of what we know that's relevant for a US attack on Iran. Won't change any minds, but might help us teach this crisis and learn new angles. Please add (incl. your own work!), forgive/correct omissions. Nobody can cover everything and it's great to find new work. 1/?

For context on Israel-Iran, here's a list of cases where countries considered or used military force to stop nuclear proliferation in peacetime. It's from my new @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org book Influence Without Arms. Chapter 6 is devoted to explaining why preventive strikes happen.

Curious about a potential strike against Iran? I spoke to an expert (@mcfuhrmann.bsky.social) on preventive action targeting nuclear programs last month. Still relevant today! Skip to 24:52. www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqVx...

After a long break, Lines on Maps Extra is back! Today, the topic is Ukraine's nuclear pathways, with some bonus thoughts about Iran. I brought in @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social, a professor and expert on nuclear proliferation, to share his thoughts. www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqVx...

Had a great time visiting Carnegie Mellon’s @cmist-cmu.bsky.social to talk about my new book “Influence Without Arms.” Link to video is below if you’re interested in checking it out.

Great opportunity for recent or soon to be college graduates

New job alert. The Council on Foreign Relations is searching for a Stanton Nuclear Security Senior Fellow: careers-cfr.icims.com/jobs/2615/st...

It's publication week! Influence Without Arms: The New Logic of Deterrence is now available: www.cambridge.org/9781108824071. The book examines the role of nuclear technology in international relations.