Ever feel like you walked into lines on maps halfway through and never fully understood what was going on? Well, here is 105 minutes of Crisis Bargaining Theory 101. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjKV...

Nuclear war has started---and ended. Your government has just been destroyed. But you still control 16 nuclear-tipped missiles. What's your next step? How about listening to my interview with a professor at the Army War College on the subject? www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1I8...

I have completely revamped my IRL introduction to international relations class. Today, I published the first lecture out of the batch! I will publish a new one every Saturday for the next three months. They will be exclusive to my secondary channel. www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8ZY...

If you woke up this morning thinking "I'd really like to see William Spaniel wreck a $2000 military drone," then goodness do I have the right video for you. www.youtube.com/watch?v=54hk...

Ten days after the Fracas in Caracas, we take a look at what happened, and how Venezuela's military relationship with Russia left some major gaps in the former's defenses. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu9t...

Warning: contains dramatic reenactment of the 2018 NATO Summit, which gives some insight on the origin of Donald Trump's apparent animosity toward Denmark. www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bHH...

Best headline of the year so far. It reads like clickbait but is 100% true to the story. www.politico.eu/article/fran...

Last month, I attended a NATO cyber security exercise in Estonia. They showed me basically nothing. But that was by design, and highlights a broader point about why states run military exercises. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwZx...

Fallout from the capture of two tankers today, plus some analysis on what is happening with the oil blockade in Venezuela. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd9y...

Let's hope that the security guarantees work better than Macron's pen.

Strategies like what the Trump Administration is doing in Venezuela rarely work. Why do countries keep trying despite that? The answer may have to do with a line or two. And perhaps a map as well. (Or a generic bar of goodies.) www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWmk...

The Trump Administration has not articulated a clear plan, but the lack of a plan is the plan. And what can the new Venezuelan president do to counter it? www.youtube.com/watch?v=HK91...

First images of Delcy Rodriguez being sworn in. Working on a video right now about what her strategy is going forward.

With the initial shock of Maduro’s capture subsiding, today I look at what it does to the rest of the world at war. youtu.be/e4SVt3B0UE8

Even with Maduro captured, today is day one of a much longer process—lest the United States fall into the Iraq trap. youtu.be/0EKqt_jXbPM

I did. I just got into the habit of checking the news whenever I would wake up in the middle of the night over the last week. Post Christmas/New Years was the sensible timing for the operation.

Yep, already working on getting something out shortly.

Apropos of nothing, Saddam Hussein (leader of an oil rich country) arrested a bunch of foreign nationals right before the Gulf War. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...

Spain believes that Russia was trying to build two nuclear reactors for North Korean submarines. They are now sitting at the bottom of the Mediterranean. Who did it? youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE

Discussion of the two key provisions inside of the U.S.-Ukraine plan, plus the political maneuvering here given that Russia will not accept its terms. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...

Zelensky has revealed the 20 point peace plan negotiated between the United States and Ukraine. I do not think it will work, but Zelensky has successfully deflected the peace plan Russia leaked weeks ago. kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...

One must wonder how long the U.S. military can be in “active pursuit” of a tanker. It is not like they move very fast. www.reuters.com/world/americ...

It will not surprise me if these continue for the next couple of weeks. I would be that more serious military action will wait for the new year, though. www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Quick look at Ukraine's strike on a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the Mediterranean Sea today. If Russia stops transiting using the Suez Canal shortcut as a result, it is the equivalent of the destruction of roughly a third of the shadow fleet. www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...

Two blockades, one from a stronger country, one from a weaker country, and the possibility of something more with Trump’s Oval Office address tonight. youtu.be/4KYppram-9A

This might be the greatest exchange in the history of my channel. (The rain commentary is from today’s video.)

Russia claimed control of Kupiansk for several weeks, "completely and in its entirety." Then Zelensky showed up at the city, capping Ukraine's best offensive move in months. www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UmU...

(Almost) back to back comments.

Ukraine and the United States are currently engaged in a pair of separate campaigns that target oil tankers. This is a much bigger story than the amount of attention it is currently receiving. And they will have interesting crossover effects. www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOA4...

With all of the discussion about a ceasefire (plus Thanksgiving in the U.S.), this was easy to miss. Ukraine has started a new phase of its energy campaign, now specifically targeting production, export terminals, the shadow fleet. Updated timeline below. Full video in the next couple of days.

I recently travelled to Estonia and got deep into the bizarre circumstances that turned into a cybersecurity titan. www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BCc...

Deep dive into the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy, how it lacks a coherent narrative, and all of the self-contradictions therein. www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0qc...

The second Kremlin phone call leak should have been a bigger story. Combined with the leaked 28 point peace plan, we now know what Russia thinks is the maximum it can extract fro. Ukraine. And it also suggests that someone might know Russia’s true minimum demands. youtu.be/_jrYlp8VPKs

This is significant polling. Europe's Hague pledge has rallied support for NATO among Republicans, and frustration with Trump has kept Democrats support of NATO very high.

Sure, what Witkoff said according to the leak is bad. But the real story here is that there is a leak at all. Thinking about who did it and why is the interesting part. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU...

Not much is known about what is in the tentative agreement between the United States and Ukraine, but I cover it for the first five minutes today. Then another eight minutes of how all of the disjoined White House actions reveal a Vance-Rubio power struggle. www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...

9 minutes of what was lost by waiting to respond to Russia. 45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...

By (likely) leaking the peace plan, Russia set the agenda here. The Kremlin understands the value of this. Europe does not or is too politically paralyzed to do anything about it. Either way, it is to Ukraine’s detriment. youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE

This is getting messy. Senators claim that Rubio told them that the peace plan was Russia’s, not a White House position. A spokesman from the State Department says that Rubio never said that. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

Hopefully never—it’s only bad news if I do.

Yes.

Five minutes of a broad overview of exactly where we are and what is wrong here. Fifty minutes of going through the entire document, point by point, to showcase just how bizarre it is. www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9Z...

Ukraine's air campaign has subtly added a second dimension, and it has *striking* economic and strategic implications. youtu.be/LpgiTa3IzGc

What the heck is underlying the deployment around Venezuela? youtu.be/IVwmOfMSqhE

Big yikes from YouTube's suggested thumbnails for tomorrow's video. There was a time when these would be all you could choose from!

The USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean, and Venezuela has mobilized some of its forces. This is the first real window where some serious military action could occur. Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.

If Ukraine was currently torching all of your oil refineries, would you (A) give away air defenses or (B) not give away air defenses? youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk

Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.

A House of Dynamite was great except: 1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101 2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series 3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was

Ever wonder how exactly Ukraine protects its skies from one-way attack drones and glide bombs? I went to Istanbul to talk to the folks behind some of the cutting edge air defense technologies. www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...