William Spaniel
@gametheory101.bsky.social
📤 2426
📥 64
📝 355
PhD and professor. War, economics, math, YouTube. Lines on Maps.
http://youtube.com/gametheory101
Apropos of nothing, Saddam Hussein (leader of an oil rich country) arrested a bunch of foreign nationals right before the Gulf War.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign...
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Foreign nationals held by Iraq during the 1990–1991 Gulf crisis - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_nationals_held_by_Iraq_during_the_1990–1991_Gulf_crisis
about 8 hours ago
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Spain believes that Russia was trying to build two nuclear reactors for North Korean submarines. They are now sitting at the bottom of the Mediterranean. Who did it?
youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
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Who Secretly Destroyed Two Russian Nuclear Reactors?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/Br9KlA4oWOE
1 day ago
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Discussion of the two key provisions inside of the U.S.-Ukraine plan, plus the political maneuvering here given that Russia will not accept its terms.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA...
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How Zelensky Successfully Deflected the Disastrous U.S.-Russia Peace Proposal
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zamA2SFTWOc
9 days ago
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Zelensky has revealed the 20 point peace plan negotiated between the United States and Ukraine. I do not think it will work, but Zelensky has successfully deflected the peace plan Russia leaked weeks ago.
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rev...
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Zelensky reveals full 20-point peace plan draft backed by Ukraine, US
After weeks of talks, Ukraine and the U.S. have prepared a draft of the revised peace plan to end Russia’s full-scale war. The initial 28-point plan, which effectively pushed Ukraine toward capitulat...
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-reveals-20-point-peace-plan-draft-backed-by-ukraine-us/
9 days ago
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One must wonder how long the U.S. military can be in “active pursuit” of a tanker. It is not like they move very fast.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
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US pursuing third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials say
It would be the second such operation this weekend and the third in less than two weeks.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-intercepts-another-vessel-near-venezuela-officials-say-2025-12-21/
12 days ago
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It will not surprise me if these continue for the next couple of weeks. I would be that more serious military action will wait for the new year, though.
www.reuters.com/world/americ...
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Exclusive: US seizes vessel off Venezuelan coast, officials say
This would mark the second time in recent weeks that the United States has seized a tanker near Venezuela.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-interdicting-sanctioned-vessel-off-venezuelan-coast-officials-say-2025-12-20/
13 days ago
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Quick look at Ukraine's strike on a Russian shadow fleet vessel in the Mediterranean Sea today. If Russia stops transiting using the Suez Canal shortcut as a result, it is the equivalent of the destruction of roughly a third of the shadow fleet.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Jzb...
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Did Ukraine Just Effectively Disable a Third of Russia’s Shadow Fleet in One Strike?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JzbeT9HzyI
14 days ago
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Two blockades, one from a stronger country, one from a weaker country, and the possibility of something more with Trump’s Oval Office address tonight.
youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
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The Blockade Game: Two Big New Moves in the Global Conflict
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/4KYppram-9A
16 days ago
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This might be the greatest exchange in the history of my channel. (The rain commentary is from today’s video.)
18 days ago
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Russia claimed control of Kupiansk for several weeks, "completely and in its entirety." Then Zelensky showed up at the city, capping Ukraine's best offensive move in months.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UmU...
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How Ukraine Recaptured a Key Frontline City
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UmUV5ML9UI
18 days ago
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(Almost) back to back comments.
19 days ago
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Ukraine and the United States are currently engaged in a pair of separate campaigns that target oil tankers. This is a much bigger story than the amount of attention it is currently receiving. And they will have interesting crossover effects.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOA4...
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The World Oil War: Inside Ukraine’s Expanded Campaign and the Huge U.S. Seizure
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOA4V6mugb8
19 days ago
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With all of the discussion about a ceasefire (plus Thanksgiving in the U.S.), this was easy to miss. Ukraine has started a new phase of its energy campaign, now specifically targeting production, export terminals, the shadow fleet. Updated timeline below. Full video in the next couple of days.
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21 days ago
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I recently travelled to Estonia and got deep into the bizarre circumstances that turned into a cybersecurity titan.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BCc...
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How This Statue Turned a Small State into a Cybersecurity Superpower...
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BCcnWjoPx8
21 days ago
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Deep dive into the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy, how it lacks a coherent narrative, and all of the self-contradictions therein.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0qc...
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Self-Contradictory: Where the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy Goes Wrong
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0qcZ-_3Wu0
24 days ago
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The second Kremlin phone call leak should have been a bigger story. Combined with the leaked 28 point peace plan, we now know what Russia thinks is the maximum it can extract fro. Ukraine. And it also suggests that someone might know Russia’s true minimum demands.
youtu.be/_jrYlp8VPKs
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The Kremlin’s Leaked Peace Plan Proves That Russia Is Weaker Than It Seems
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/_jrYlp8VPKs
27 days ago
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This is significant polling. Europe's Hague pledge has rallied support for NATO among Republicans, and frustration with Trump has kept Democrats support of NATO very high.
27 days ago
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Sure, what Witkoff said according to the leak is bad. But the real story here is that there is a leak at all. Thinking about who did it and why is the interesting part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU...
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Why the Witkoff Leak Is Way Worse Than It Seems
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdjU14Lt_iw
about 1 month ago
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Not much is known about what is in the tentative agreement between the United States and Ukraine, but I cover it for the first five minutes today. Then another eight minutes of how all of the disjoined White House actions reveal a Vance-Rubio power struggle.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF...
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The Ukraine-U.S. Peace Deal: The Good, the Bad, and the White House Power Struggle
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egSF6UpoCas
about 1 month ago
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9 minutes of what was lost by waiting to respond to Russia. 45 minutes going through the document point-by-point. There is a bunch of subtle stuff that is easy to overlook here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAj...
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Why Europe's New Peace Deal Showcases the Power of Agenda Setting
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGAjyQCN1UI
about 1 month ago
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By (likely) leaking the peace plan, Russia set the agenda here. The Kremlin understands the value of this. Europe does not or is too politically paralyzed to do anything about it. Either way, it is to Ukraine’s detriment.
youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
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Inside the Leaked Ukraine Deal: The Kremlin's Games, Europe’s Failure, and Trump's Indifference
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/kpBKttsvyEE
about 1 month ago
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This is getting messy. Senators claim that Rubio told them that the peace plan was Russia’s, not a White House position. A spokesman from the State Department says that Rubio never said that.
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
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US senators say Rubio told them Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is Russia's 'wish list'
U.S. senators critical of President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war say they spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio who told them that the peace plan Trump is pushing ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/11/22/ukraine-peace-plan-security-confernece-halifax-senators/a4892666-c7cc-11f0-be23-3ccb704f61ac_story.html
about 1 month ago
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Hopefully never—it’s only bad news if I do.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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Yes.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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Five minutes of a broad overview of exactly where we are and what is wrong here. Fifty minutes of going through the entire document, point by point, to showcase just how bizarre it is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9Z...
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28 Points of Pain: The Plethora of Problems with the U.S./Russia Peace Plan
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9d9ZRbh5AVY
about 1 month ago
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Ukraine's air campaign has subtly added a second dimension, and it has *striking* economic and strategic implications.
youtu.be/LpgiTa3IzGc
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The Astonishing Success of Ukraine’s Air Campaign
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/LpgiTa3IzGc
about 2 months ago
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What the heck is underlying the deployment around Venezuela?
youtu.be/IVwmOfMSqhE
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Is Trump about to Start a Diversionary War in Venezuela?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/IVwmOfMSqhE
about 2 months ago
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Big yikes from YouTube's suggested thumbnails for tomorrow's video. There was a time when these would be all you could choose from!
about 2 months ago
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The USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean, and Venezuela has mobilized some of its forces. This is the first real window where some serious military action could occur. Below, stock video from two months ago of an F/A-18F about to land on the Ford.
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about 2 months ago
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If Ukraine was currently torching all of your oil refineries, would you (A) give away air defenses or (B) not give away air defenses?
youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
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Russia Just Did Something Utterly Bizarre in Venezuela
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/JgL2hZWj3gk
about 2 months ago
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Updated map of the current campaign's strikes on oil and gas facilities in Russia, after two more last night.
about 2 months ago
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A House of Dynamite was great except: 1) the head of STRATCOM implausibly does not understand nuclear strategy 101 2) it was a fantastic first three episodes of an eight episode series 3 the Secretary of Defense was seemingly as uninterested in how it ends as the writer was
2 months ago
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Ever wonder how exactly Ukraine protects its skies from one-way attack drones and glide bombs? I went to Istanbul to talk to the folks behind some of the cutting edge air defense technologies.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_...
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How Ukraine Intercepts Russian Drones and Glide Bombs (And What NATO Is Doing about the Problem)
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--q_e4IHHow
2 months ago
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Update to Ukraine's energy infrastructure sabotage campaign, current through October 19. The map getting VERY cluttered.
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3 months ago
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After a quiet few days on the energy infrastructure front (but not weapons production facilities), Ukraine struck a couple places last night.
3 months ago
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Time lapse of every suspected Ukrainian attack on Russian energy infrastructure that I could find. I didn't fully appreciate the extent of the damage until I saw all of the Xs accumulate.
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3 months ago
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Another night, another fire at a Russian refinery, this one about a 900 kilometers flight. Inset image is from NASA's fire tracker.
3 months ago
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Covering a huge distance to hit a refinery is much easier to do when you know where the air defenses are. (Note: There is no way to know whether U.S. intel contributed here, and Ukraine already struck it last month.)
youtu.be/mjET8JH-zBg
add a skeleton here at some point
3 months ago
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Discussion of what U.S. intel sharing about long-distance targeting can do for Ukraine, and what it says about the overall U.S.-Ukraine relationship.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET...
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Game Changer: How the U.S. Is Helping Ukraine Destroy Russian Refineries
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjET8JH-zBg
3 months ago
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A discussion of just how much a possible no-fly zone in Ukraine has evolved over the last three years, and just how plausible Poland's plan is.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqh...
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Inside the Plan to Impose a No-Fly Zone in Ukraine
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diqhdex2tfU
3 months ago
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Trump and Zelensky had a brief meeting at the United Nations today. The most important takeaway I got from it is that the U.N. has the same taste in discount Swedish furniture that I do.
3 months ago
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Russia sent three fighters into Estonian airspace. NATO may be best off firing at them, but it is worth first thinking about what the Kremlin may be trying to do here.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzC...
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Three Russian Fighters Just Entered Estonian Air Space. What's Putin's Plan?
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVzCgNs_BrI
4 months ago
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With multiple Russian MiGs violating Estonian air space today, this week’s video is looking all the more timely.
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
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How Turkey Shot Down a Russian Bomber and the Kremlin Did Nothing in Response
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
4 months ago
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There is a bunch of discussion of using Turkey’s zero-tolerance policy from 2015 as a template for handling Russia today. But the comparison is much more complicated.
youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
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How Turkey Shot Down a Russian Bomber and the Kremlin Did Nothing in Response
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://youtu.be/8McW9Z2egpU
4 months ago
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I gather a lot of stock images/video. Usually I do it in a hurry. Rarely I find something so seemingly unreal that I would think if it was fake if I did not know any better and I just sit back in awe. Today I had one of those moments.
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4 months ago
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New air alerts in Poland and Romania, just a couple of hours after I posted this video. It is the first test of the "Eastern Sentry" counterstrategy. With this kind of frequency, though, we are inching closer to a more kinetic Western response.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-4e...
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Time for Action: NATO’s Newly-Announced Plan to Counter Russia’s Drones
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-4eA7reZEk
4 months ago
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What's will Europe do in the aftermath of last night's drone incursions? Here are my initial thoughts.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFp...
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Poland Just Shot Down Russian Drones. Here's NATO's Next Move.
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFpfsi5qtI
4 months ago
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As everyone brushes off their copies of the North Atlantic Treaty this morning to see what the heck Article 4 is, we all discover the document's only major flaw: its lack of Oxford commas.
4 months ago
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Today's video is a detailed look at Ukraine's strategy strategy over the last month plus of refinery attacks. It is actually *two* separate campaigns, and they have interesting interactions with the broader strategies Ukraine and Western partners are pursuing.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha...
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Ukraine's New BOPP Strategy: The Big Oil Power Play
YouTube video by William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvha2sVzAFE
4 months ago
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I want to put some context behind the Politico report that the next U.S. National Defense Strategy will prioritize the homeland, not China and Russia. I think this is likely being misinterpreted in light of an earlier Defense Intelligence Agency assessment. đź§µ
www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ExJ...
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Russia's Axis of Influence: Inside the 2025 U.S. Threat Assessment
YouTube video by Lines on Maps Extra
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ExJmvgF7ks&t=2127s
4 months ago
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