Taylor Fravel
@fravel.bsky.social
📤 3562
📥 453
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Studying China's foreign and security policies and director of MIT's Security Studies Program
reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Security Studies Program MIT
7 days ago
SSP Director
@fravel.bsky.social
and Associate Professor
@proftalmadge.bsky.social
join the Strategic Simplicity Podcast to discuss China’s military transformation and the implications for US nuclear strategy. 🎧
strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/part-i-of-...
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Taylor Fravel
Foreign Affairs
20 days ago
“Xi may well deem it necessary to fight even if the PLA is not completely prepared,” writes
@fravel.bsky.social
. “Since the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949, China has usually gone to war when conditions appeared to be unfavorable.”
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Is China’s Military Ready for War?
What Xi’s purges do—and don’t—mean for Beijing’s ambitions.
https://fam.ag/3I7tNG5
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Taylor Fravel
Caitlin Talmadge
8 days ago
Delighted to have joined the Strategic Simplicity Podcast with
@pranayrvaddi.bsky.social
,
@fravel.bsky.social
, Austin Long, and Vipin Narang to discuss China's nuclear strategy!
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Security Studies Program MIT
2 months ago
“Now, as then, Chinese leaders may pursue war even if the domestic economic and political conditions appear unfavorable—and even if the PLA is not ready to fight,” writes SSP Director M. Taylor Fravel (
@fravel.bsky.social
) for
@foreignaffairs.com
.
www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...
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Is China’s Military Ready for War?
What Xi’s purges do—and don’t—mean for Beijing’s ambitions.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-military-ready-war-xi-jinping-taylor-fravel
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New essay on purges in China’s armed forces and its impact on operational readiness
www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...
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Is China’s Military Ready for War?
What Xi’s purges do—and don’t—mean for Beijing’s ambitions.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-military-ready-war-xi-jinping-taylor-fravel
2 months ago
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A wonderful tribute to
@ssp-mit.bsky.social
's dear colleague, Owen Cote
networks.h-net.org/group/discus...
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H-Diplo|RJISSF Tribute to the Scholarship and Legacy of Owen R. Coté, Jr. | H-Net
H-Diplo | Robert Jervis International Security Studvies ForumTribute to the Scholarship and Legacy of Owen R. Coté, Jr.
https://networks.h-net.org/group/discussions/20069929/h-diplorjissf-tribute-scholarship-and-legacy-owen-r-cote-jr
4 months ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
ChinaPower
6 months ago
Why can a direct comparison of two countries’ defense budget be misleading?
@fravel.bsky.social
explains: “no two countries in their published defense budgets report spending on the exact same categories.” Learn more here:
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Getting China’s Defense Spending Right | ChinaPower Project
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Taylor Fravel, Dr. George Gilboy, and Dr. Eric Heginbotham join us to discuss their recent article assessing China’s defense budget. They challenge…
http://bit.ly/PRCDefenseSpending
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Taylor Fravel
Don Moynihan
6 months ago
If you are visiting the United States, having a negative view of Trump is enough to get you denied entry. If this was coming out of Russia or China, we would deplore such an authoritarian attack on freedom of expression.
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New book alert, expertly edited by Bard Nikolas Vik Steen. Contributors include
@stephenwalt.bsky.social
@arkroeber.bsky.social
@brunotertrais.bsky.social
@fheisbourg.bsky.social
myself and many more who are not yet on this channel
academic.oup.com/book/59461
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Not Just Another Cold War: The Global Implications of the US-China Rivalry
Abstract. This book explores how the emerging superpower rivalry between the United States and China compares to the Cold War, and what that means for the
https://academic.oup.com/book/59461
6 months ago
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Taylor Fravel
Alex Wayne
6 months ago
Exclusive: NIH officials have advised scientists to remove reference to mRNA vaccines from their grant applications, in expectation the Trump administration intends to abandon most research in the field. By
@arthurallen202.bsky.social
kffhealthnews.org/news/article...
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Scientists Say NIH Officials Told Them To Scrub mRNA References on Grants - KFF Health News
Two senior scientists say National Institutes of Health officials advised them to remove references to mRNA vaccines in grant applications, and they fear the Trump administration will abandon a promis...
https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/nih-grants-mrna-vaccines-trump-administration-hhs-rfk/
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What could possibly go wrong
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DOGE Cuts Reach Key Nuclear Scientists, Bomb Engineers and Safety Experts
Firings and buyouts hit the top-secret National Nuclear Safety Administration amid a major effort to upgrade America’s nuclear arsenal. Critics say it shows the consequences of heedlessly cutting the ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/us/politics/federal-job-cuts-nuclear-bomb-engineers-scientists.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
6 months ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Security Studies Program MIT
7 months ago
“Simply put: Nuclear proliferation to both allies and adversaries dilutes the privileges of power the United States enjoys,” writes the Center for Nuclear Security Policy’s Vipin Narang and
@pranayrvaddi.bsky.social
with coauthor
@nktpnd.bsky.social
for
@warontherocks.bsky.social
. Read more👇🏽
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Risa Brooks
7 months ago
Firing General Brown and Admiral Franchetti is not a complete surprise to civmil watchers, but pulling this guy from retirement for chairman definitely is It’s a strong signal that promotion to top positions will require complete ideological conformity from here on out
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Oppsies!
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Trump officials fired nuclear staff not realizing they oversee the country’s weapons stockpile, sources say | CNN
Some of the fired probationary employees included on-the-ground staff at facilities where nuclear weapons are built.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/climate/nuclear-nnsa-firings-trump/index.html
7 months ago
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“If I were a nation like China, Russia or Iran, I’d be having a field day with a bunch of college kids running around with sensitive federal government data on unencrypted hard drives.”
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Musk’s DOGE agents access sensitive personnel data, alarming security officials
Elon Musk’s DOGE team has accessed highly restricted data maintained by the Office of Personnel Management, including personally identifiable information for millions of federal employees.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/02/06/elon-musk-doge-access-personnel-data-opm-security/
8 months ago
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Great opportunity!
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8 months ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Security Studies Program MIT
8 months ago
The Center for Nuclear Security Policy (CNSP) is pleased to announce that Pranay Vaddi has joined CNSP as the inaugural Senior Nuclear Fellow.
@pranayrvaddi.bsky.social
most recently served as special assistant to President Biden and as senior director for Arms Control, Disarmament, and...
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Great analysis by Evan Medeiros
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Xi has a plan for retaliating against Trump’s gamesmanship
China is marshalling its forces for long-term competition against an America that it believes is divided and in decline
https://on.ft.com/3BVlgTD
9 months ago
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Great opportunity for recent or soon to be college graduates
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9 months ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Security Studies Program MIT
9 months ago
The Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT is seeking Nuclear Security Junior Fellows to serve as research assistants for faculty, researchers, and fellows on topics related to nuclear security. Fellows will report to the director of the Center for Nuclear Security Policy. (1/2)
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations
9 months ago
We are delighted to announce the launch of a major new initiative which draws on the approach of the Penn Project in convening, over the next 2 years, leading next generation scholars and experts on China from throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Announcement here:
bit.ly/41GUPvh
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Great opportunity!
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9 months ago
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Trump Taps Ex-Senator David Perdue for Ambassador to China
10 months ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Security Studies Program MIT
10 months ago
Final call for applications! The Security Studies Program at MIT is accepting applications for the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program. Applications are accepted through December 6, 2024. Decisions will be announced in January 2025. Information & application:
ssp.mit.edu/about/fellow...
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More big news …. Miao Hua, current member of the CMC in charge of political work is under investigation
on.ft.com/3ARpY4t
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China probes top officer discipline ‘violations’
Investigation into Miao Hua takes Xi Jinping’s purge of military to its highest echelons
https://on.ft.com/3ARpY4t
10 months ago
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Perhaps explains why Dong was not added to the state CMC in March or the party CMC in June
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China’s defence minister placed under investigation for corruption
US officials say probe is part of wider operation to uncover graft in People’s Liberation Army
https://on.ft.com/4fMTJST
10 months ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Henry Farrell
10 months ago
Before the election,
@abenewman.bsky.social
and I talked about how if Trump won, our arguments would become more relevant in the grimmest fucking ways possible. Here, Jonas explains why it's likely to be worse than we expected.
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Taylor Fravel
Now accepting applications!
add a skeleton here at some point
10 months ago
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Now accepting applications!
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10 months ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Security Studies Program MIT
11 months ago
"How will the military balance of power in East Asia evolve over the next decade amid growing and intensifying competition between the United States and China?" SSP's
@fravel.bsky.social
& Eric Heginbotham examine this question and more in their chapter for the latest Carnegie Endowment volume.
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U.S.-China Relations for the 2030s: Toward a Realistic Scenario for Coexistence
It has become difficult to imagine how Washington and Beijing might turn their relationship, which is so crucial to the future of world order, toward calmer waters. If there is to be any hope of doing...
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/us-china-relations-for-the-2030s-toward-a-realistic-scenario-for-coexistence?lang=en
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Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have started…
english.news.cn/20240523/2e8...
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PLA conducts joint military drills surrounding Taiwan Island
https://english.news.cn/20240523/2e8ebbb3171a4f4e96e0147f35fd1df4/c.html
over 1 year ago
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My biggest discovery in 2023? ChatBots are great for looking recipies
over 1 year ago
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Really great article well worth your time
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almost 2 years ago
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New essay with @henrihi82 (Henrik Hiim) and @langset_an (Magnus Troan) in @ForeignAffairs that draws on our earlier @Journal_IS article on China’s changing nuclear posture
www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...
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China’s Misunderstood Nuclear Expansion
How U.S. strategy is fueling Beijing’s growing arsenal.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-misunderstood-nuclear-expansion
almost 2 years ago
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A small but important step toward a U.S.-China nuclear dialogue
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
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China, U.S. to Meet for Rare Nuclear Arms-Control Talks
Washington meeting comes as concerns grow over an arms race with Beijing and Moscow
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-agrees-to-arms-control-talks-with-u-s-87a44b38
almost 2 years ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Bonnie Glaser
almost 2 years ago
My first post. My op-ed published in the NYT today. I lay out the reasons why a PRC attack on Taiwan is unlikely in the near term and what needs to be done to preserve the peace in the years ahead. Constructive critiques welcome.
www.nytimes.com/2023/10/29/o...
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Biden-Xi meeting update
www.wsj.com/world/u-s-ch...
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U.S., China Agree in Principle to Biden-Xi Summit
Meeting offers chance to reboot ties amid divisiveness over Taiwan, technology and, lately, the Middle East
https://www.wsj.com/world/u-s-china-agree-in-principle-to-biden-xi-summit-73df82b7?st=mnag4gp8sykj6o4&reflink=article_copyURL_share
almost 2 years ago
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Xinhua posts Li Keqiang's official obituary. Last two paragraphs are quite interesting (and downplayed in shorter English version), via Apple Translate:
www.news.cn/politics/202...
almost 2 years ago
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2023 China military report released (pdf)
media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/...
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https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF
almost 2 years ago
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New article in The Washington Quarterly (@TWQgw) on the diplomatic, military, and economic lessons China may be learning from the war in Ukraine for a potential conflict over Taiwan.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan
Published in The Washington Quarterly (Vol. 46, No. 3, 2023)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2023.2260141
almost 2 years ago
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reposted by
Taylor Fravel
Cullen Hendrix
almost 2 years ago
Are you/do you know an early career researcher (ABD/postdoc) interested in conflict forecasting, maritime security, and climate change? We're looking for you! Fantastic opportunity to work with the World Wildlife Fund on a cool project – PM me to learn more. And yes, we pay :-) Spread the word.
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Taylor Fravel
Laia Balcells
almost 2 years ago
Security Studies Tenure-line position (Open Rank) at Georgetown:
apply.interfolio.com/132869
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Blue sky, indeed!
about 2 years ago
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