SSP Director @fravel.bsky.social and Associate Professor @proftalmadge.bsky.social join the Strategic Simplicity Podcast to discuss China’s military transformation and the implications for US nuclear strategy. 🎧 strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/part-i-of-...

“Xi may well deem it necessary to fight even if the PLA is not completely prepared,” writes @fravel.bsky.social. “Since the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949, China has usually gone to war when conditions appeared to be unfavorable.”

Delighted to have joined the Strategic Simplicity Podcast with @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, @fravel.bsky.social, Austin Long, and Vipin Narang to discuss China's nuclear strategy!

“Now, as then, Chinese leaders may pursue war even if the domestic economic and political conditions appear unfavorable—and even if the PLA is not ready to fight,” writes SSP Director M. Taylor Fravel (@fravel.bsky.social) for @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...

New essay on purges in China’s armed forces and its impact on operational readiness www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...

A wonderful tribute to @ssp-mit.bsky.social's dear colleague, Owen Cote networks.h-net.org/group/discus...

Why can a direct comparison of two countries’ defense budget be misleading? @fravel.bsky.social explains: “no two countries in their published defense budgets report spending on the exact same categories.” Learn more here:

If you are visiting the United States, having a negative view of Trump is enough to get you denied entry. If this was coming out of Russia or China, we would deplore such an authoritarian attack on freedom of expression.

New book alert, expertly edited by Bard Nikolas Vik Steen. Contributors include @stephenwalt.bsky.social @arkroeber.bsky.social @brunotertrais.bsky.social @fheisbourg.bsky.social myself and many more who are not yet on this channel academic.oup.com/book/59461

Exclusive: NIH officials have advised scientists to remove reference to mRNA vaccines from their grant applications, in expectation the Trump administration intends to abandon most research in the field. By @arthurallen202.bsky.social kffhealthnews.org/news/article...

What could possibly go wrong

“Simply put: Nuclear proliferation to both allies and adversaries dilutes the privileges of power the United States enjoys,” writes the Center for Nuclear Security Policy’s Vipin Narang and @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social with coauthor @nktpnd.bsky.social for @warontherocks.bsky.social. Read more👇🏽

Firing General Brown and Admiral Franchetti is not a complete surprise to civmil watchers, but pulling this guy from retirement for chairman definitely is It’s a strong signal that promotion to top positions will require complete ideological conformity from here on out

Oppsies!

“If I were a nation like China, Russia or Iran, I’d be having a field day with a bunch of college kids running around with sensitive federal government data on unencrypted hard drives.”

Great opportunity!

The Center for Nuclear Security Policy (CNSP) is pleased to announce that Pranay Vaddi has joined CNSP as the inaugural Senior Nuclear Fellow. @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social most recently served as special assistant to President Biden and as senior director for Arms Control, Disarmament, and...

Great analysis by Evan Medeiros

Great opportunity for recent or soon to be college graduates

The Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT is seeking Nuclear Security Junior Fellows to serve as research assistants for faculty, researchers, and fellows on topics related to nuclear security. Fellows will report to the director of the Center for Nuclear Security Policy. (1/2)

We are delighted to announce the launch of a major new initiative which draws on the approach of the Penn Project in convening, over the next 2 years, leading next generation scholars and experts on China from throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Announcement here: bit.ly/41GUPvh

Great opportunity!

Trump Taps Ex-Senator David Perdue for Ambassador to China

Final call for applications! The Security Studies Program at MIT is accepting applications for the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program. Applications are accepted through December 6, 2024. Decisions will be announced in January 2025. Information & application: ssp.mit.edu/about/fellow...

More big news …. Miao Hua, current member of the CMC in charge of political work is under investigation on.ft.com/3ARpY4t

Perhaps explains why Dong was not added to the state CMC in March or the party CMC in June

Before the election, @abenewman.bsky.social and I talked about how if Trump won, our arguments would become more relevant in the grimmest fucking ways possible. Here, Jonas explains why it's likely to be worse than we expected.

Now accepting applications!

Now accepting applications!

"How will the military balance of power in East Asia evolve over the next decade amid growing and intensifying competition between the United States and China?" SSP's @fravel.bsky.social & Eric Heginbotham examine this question and more in their chapter for the latest Carnegie Endowment volume.

Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have started… english.news.cn/20240523/2e8...

My biggest discovery in 2023? ChatBots are great for looking recipies

Really great article well worth your time

New essay with @henrihi82 (Henrik Hiim) and @langset_an (Magnus Troan) in @ForeignAffairs that draws on our earlier @Journal_IS article on China’s changing nuclear posture www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...

A small but important step toward a U.S.-China nuclear dialogue www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

My first post. My op-ed published in the NYT today. I lay out the reasons why a PRC attack on Taiwan is unlikely in the near term and what needs to be done to preserve the peace in the years ahead. Constructive critiques welcome. www.nytimes.com/2023/10/29/o...

Biden-Xi meeting update www.wsj.com/world/u-s-ch...

Xinhua posts Li Keqiang's official obituary. Last two paragraphs are quite interesting (and downplayed in shorter English version), via Apple Translate: www.news.cn/politics/202...

2023 China military report released (pdf) media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/...

New article in The Washington Quarterly (@TWQgw) on the diplomatic, military, and economic lessons China may be learning from the war in Ukraine for a potential conflict over Taiwan. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Are you/do you know an early career researcher (ABD/postdoc) interested in conflict forecasting, maritime security, and climate change? We're looking for you! Fantastic opportunity to work with the World Wildlife Fund on a cool project – PM me to learn more. And yes, we pay :-) Spread the word.

Security Studies Tenure-line position (Open Rank) at Georgetown: apply.interfolio.com/132869

Blue sky, indeed!