As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics. Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

The reason for this, in the UK and elsewhere in Western/European democracies, is in my view that the potential change towards far-right led governments is more extreme. This is very different to a potential change from centre-right to centre-left, or vice-versa.

The most popoulous landlocked country being Ethiopia. PM Abiy says that the country should no longer be a "prisoner of geography", spurring fears about war across the border in Eritrea. Geography does not define a country's destiny, but what states make of it.

The idea of mass deportation of people who had legally migrated into a country used to be a clear indicator for not only far-right, but far-right extremist policies. This says a lot on both how far Reform has radicalised, and how these kind of ideas are becoming normalised in Western democracies.

Interesting map about landlocked countries. For a continent this small, suprisingly many of them in Europe compared to other continents: (via @simongerman600.bsky.social):

Some interesting infos, but the most important part is the setup - rather than doing a major personal interview, this is a collection of written replies. In my view, part of the job of the Commission President should be to communicate with the European public(s) and speak directly to media.

On the motions of censure: "Members of the far right and the far left have every right to hold different opinions and to exercise their parliamentary prerogatives. It is not for me to comment on this." "I work with the pro-European democratic forces to meet the expectations of our citizens."

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation": fiia.fi/en/publicati... Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe". I wish I'd been more wrong.

There goes the argument that it is better to continue buying US weapons because Europeans can get them quicker 'of the shelf'

I confess I become increasingly irritated with Brits who inform me in what kind of deep trouble my country is in, and how blind we are supposedly to this, at a time when right wing nationalism is surging in Britain and NATO is hanging by a thread. My Friends. We are in the same boat.

56% of Germans believe that Russia will attack eastern NATO countries. In Dec 24 a (small) majority still believed they wouldn’t. ZDF Polit-Barometer

Here is the map from the Estonian MoD about where the Russians entered the Estonian airspace:

Before last week, NATO's art. 4 had been activated seven times. Now it has been activated twice in less than ten days, by Poland over the drone incursions and Estonia over the air space by violation by Russian fighter jets.

Tony Blair used to talk about the difference between the 3-second, 30-second & 3-minute conversation - the point being that simplistic policies, that poll well, collapse under the more sustained scrutiny of an election or time in govt. So what happens when there is *only* the 3-second conversation?

Before last week, NATO's art. 4 had been activated seven times. Now it has been activated twice in less than ten days, by Poland over the drone incursions and Estonia over the air space by violation by Russian fighter jets.

So Trump tells Europeans to increase their defence budgets & buy more US kit, & the Pentagon tells them they can’t have it. Maybe it’s time for Europe to stop thinking it can rely on the US, & start investing in a rapid build-up of domestic arms production, even if it’s slightly lower quality.

We’re reaching levels of deep concern previously unseen before

It's why if we are heading to a post-American global order the EU's Article 42/7 suddenly becomes a very meaningful document

Whether it wants to or not, the EU is quickly being drawn into a mode of needing to contribute to the security of its members. Here we have von der Leyen proclaiming that "We" will respond to every provocation and signaling the further investments in the EU's & NATO's Eastern flank:

Apparently, Italian F-35s intervened. Not sure what their ROE's were

I am in close contact with the Estonian government. We will continue to support our member states in strengthening their defences with European resources. Putin is testing the West's resolve. We must not show weakness. (2/2)

The tests seem to be becoming more serious and more frequent.

Very much agree with this EU policy prescription towards Trump, which is mostly to follow the Douglas Adams approach and "Don't Panic"

Die schleichende Integration von Rechtsaußenparteien in Europa: Nach den Europawahlen 2024 stellen sie 26 % der Abgeordneten im EP – und sind in 1/3 der Mitgliedstaaten an Regierungen beteiligt. Das neue @swp-berlin.org Aktuell von @nvondarza.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social und mir 👇

Tricky balance. But if the money is used to help Hungary get away from Russian oil, I can see the argument here, even if it rewards Orbán's strategy of tactical vetos.

On a random street in Berlin. I always find it touching to see remembrance kept alive this way.

Feel like we should bring back the old twitter follow friday to boost good people on here who maybe didn't get an initial boost from the starter packs. So follow @psurridge.bsky.social and @profjanegreen.bsky.social - two excellent and thoughtful political scientists.

👀 "the US experience is peculiar. Young Euro area workers have record low unemployment. In the UK, the young persons’ unemployment rate has fallen steadily. Employment by young Japanese workers is near all-time highs. It seems implausible that AI uniquely hurts the prospects of younger US workers."

That really confused the other day in the German-UK treaty, which included biennial meetings (every two years) and I thought for a moment they meant biannual (twice a year). So confusing!

How many digital euros will each of us be able to hold? The digital euro is set to be discussed at the Eurogroup/ECOFIN meeting in Copenhagen. The EU progress is very slow, especially given China's advances in this area. In this paper we compared both projects. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

On this, helpful map by @euractiv.com on (mostly Western) European countries now supporting Poland as part of 'Eastern Sentry'. Definitely tangible support, though still burdened with the question on whether fighter planes are the right tool to deter drone incursions.

How do serious outlets let through their editing process articles that claim that the Poland drone attack ”led to little more than statements of concern”. The very same day multiple European allies pledged to deploy more support to Poland and it was formalised as Eastern Sentry 2 days later

Interesting - this includes the plan for a meeting of CEE defence ministers plus Ukraine for initial ideas to set up a 'drone wall'. I do wonder whether Hungary and/or Slovakia will participate.

Unpopular opinion, but if Europeans are honest with themselves, Trump is right - we should be responsible for our own security, including supporting Ukraine, as far as possible. But that would, of course, entail much less dependency on the US.

Looks like the left-wing split-off party in the UK is already splitting into "Your Party" and "Party of Yours"...

🎧Ein paar Gedanken von @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social und mir zu Trumps "Golden Dome" im @swp-berlin.org Podcast Was genau die Ambitionen und Hürden sind, welche Risiken/Gefahren das Projekt birgt und warum das Ganze momentan nach strategischem Wunschdenken aussieht, gibt es hier zu hören:

Tricky argument. The is a peace project, but was originally created to establish 'security from each other', so that countries like France and Germany never go to war against each other again. It does not (yet) provide 'security from others'.

The political problem Trump presents for Keir Starmer is that keeping the US on side now requires increasingly absurd performances of self-abasement which Starmer's rivals within the Labour Party and the wider UK Left will use to fuel growing anger and frustration with Starmer among Labour's base

🎥 Welche Bedeutung hat Trumps royaler Empfang in London für die US-UK Beziehungen, aber auch Europa? @nvondarza.bsky.social analysiert diese Fragen und mehr bei ZDFheute live @zdfde.bsky.social.

I recently found this site with a list of government accounts in general, including eu: govsky.org

For EU nerds, helpful list of all EP Committees now on Bluesky:

After much delay, the negotiation mandates for talks with Canada and the UK about participation in SAFE are now adopted. The mandate themselves are non public, but should be a sign that negotiaitons can now commence swiftly with the SAFE deadline at the end of November looming.

Really cool tech. But I have reached the point, where I am becoming as hesitant about more US than Chinese tech in our lives. And an always worn camera connected to AI is a big No-No in private, professional and public life.

It is still there, the (prelude to the) 'German vote' - with Berlin not taking a stance on a crucial EU issue due to internal uncertainty. Though to be fair, here it is less about internal coalition fight than an overall German dilemma on what position to take on Israel/Gaza.

Viktor Orbán's propaganda machine released a pseudo-report dismissing all Jean Monnet professors as "propagandists." 1. We're funded to study EU integration, not promote it 2. Many Jean Monnet scholars are among the EU's sharpest critics - including myself 3. Funding goes to universities not us

Over on X, Viktor Orban and Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson are having a twitter fight. Worth reading Kristersson's thoughtful reply in full, though I doubt Orban will be swayed by it. It is more an effect of the politicisation of EU-internal politics, where PMs treat each other as political opponents.

Further moves by the EU on its relationship with India, encompassing both the economic but also increasingly the security dimension.

In light of last weeks incursion into Poland, fascinating short read (from last year) on EU/European possible actions for offensive and defensive use of drones:

Captain it's Wednesday

Das, was derzeit meinen Kollegen @dunjahayali.de und Elmar Theveßen widerfährt, dürfte z.T. auch eine orchestrierte Kampagne sein. In den digitalen Kloaken genügt es ja, jemanden zu markieren und dann wird das zum Selbstläufer, in rechtsfreien Räumen, denen sich bislang keine Kraft entgegenstellt. 🧵